After the Spring Festival, coal mines resumed production faster than downstream demand, coupled with high inventory suppression in ports and power plants, exacerbating market oversupply, and causing coal prices to fall under pressure. In many places, the weekly decline exceeded 50 yuan/ton, and the monthly price dropped significantly. Entering March, the end of heating in the north has weakened civilian demand, but the non electricity industry has entered the peak season of “gold, three, silver, and four”. The resumption of construction in steel, chemical, and other industries has driven the purchase of raw coal, coupled with policy expectations to boost industrial electricity and accelerate the landing of infrastructure projects. The marginal improvement on the demand side may alleviate market pressure. Although high inventory remains the main constraint, the decline in coal prices is expected to narrow, and attention needs to be paid to the pace of industrial resumption and the progress of destocking in the future.

1、 In terms of price

After the Spring Festival, coal mines in production areas have resumed work and production one after another, and coal supply has steadily rebounded. However, the sluggish downstream purchasing sentiment has constrained market recovery.

Specifically, let’s take a look:

Post holiday resumption stage: Coal mines that were shut down during the holiday gradually resumed production, and the supply from production areas increased significantly compared to before the holiday. However, traders and coal factories have a strong bearish attitude towards the future market, with only a few first-time customers purchasing sporadically. There are few transport vehicles in the mining area, and some coal mines have slightly reduced prices (10-30 yuan/ton) to alleviate inventory pressure.

After the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival), the contradiction between supply and demand was highlighted: state-owned and large coal mines resumed production in an all-round way, and supply has returned to normal. However, affected by the lower purchase price of Shenhua and the slow progress of downstream resumption, the terminal enterprises were not willing to purchase, and only maintained the supply of just needed coal. The coal sales in the mining area market were cold, the inventory pressure was further intensified, and the downward trend of coal prices continued.

At the end of the month, supply fluctuations and price declines widened: Affected by the continuous decline in Beigang coal prices and the further reduction of Shenhua’s external purchase price by 23-30 yuan/ton and other negative factors, market bearish expectations have strengthened, and traders and platform purchases have become more cautious. In addition, some coal mines have temporarily stopped production due to safety inspections (with slight supply fluctuations), and production areas continue to have light transportation. Some coal mines have accumulated inventory, and the weekly decline in pithead coal prices has expanded to 10-30 yuan/ton.

In terms of ports:

In the first ten days, there was a stalemate and a bearish trend: the market recovery after the holiday was slow, the demand for industrial electricity rebounded weakly, the daily consumption growth of power plants was limited, the inventory of coal for electricity remained high (with more than 20 available days), and the power to replenish inventory was insufficient. Terminal procurement has generally been delayed, port quotations have fallen, and the price of Q5500 thermal coal in Qinhuangdao has gradually loosened from 765 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Accelerated bottoming out in the middle and late stages: Downstream procurement demand continues to be sluggish, port inquiries are quiet, and traders are competing to lower prices and sell goods to alleviate inventory pressure, even resulting in sales below the index price. At the same time, the effectiveness of port dredging is insufficient, and the number of anchor ships has remained low for a long time (with some ports having an empty berth rate of over 50%). The rising cost of storage further exacerbates the selling sentiment, and buyers take the opportunity to pressure prices, causing the market to enter a “quantity price simultaneous decline” deadlock.

Weak ending at the end of the month: As of February 28th, the price of Q5500 thermal coal in Qingang has fallen to 700 yuan/ton, with a cumulative drop of 65 yuan/ton for the whole month, the largest single month decline of the year, reflecting a serious lack of market confidence under the loose supply and demand pattern.

2、 Supply side

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics on the supply side, China’s raw coal production in 2024 was 438.848 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%; The cumulative production from January to December was 4758.962 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. From provincial data, the cumulative year-on-year growth of raw coal production in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Xinjiang from January to December was 5.4%, 2.0%, and 17.5%, respectively; The cumulative year-on-year decrease in Shanxi’s raw coal production is 6.9%.

3、 In terms of demand

According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2024, the total electricity consumption of the society will be 9852.1 billion kilowatt hours, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, of which the power generation of industrial enterprises above designated size will be 9418.1 billion kilowatt hours. From the perspective of electricity consumption by industry, the electricity consumption of the primary industry reached 135.7 billion kilowatt hours, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%; The electricity consumption of the secondary industry reached 6387.4 billion kilowatt hours, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%; The electricity consumption of the tertiary industry reached 1834.8 billion kilowatt hours, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%; The daily electricity consumption of urban and rural residents reached 1494.2 billion kilowatt hours, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%.

In summary, the domestic main production areas’ thermal coal market maintained a weak operation in February, and the overall performance of the demand side was sluggish. Affected by multiple rounds of price reductions in coal mines and large enterprise procurement prices, sales in most coal mines remain weak, and inventory pressure is gradually increasing. Downstream metallurgical, chemical and other industries only maintain price suppression for essential procurement, while terminal power plant inventories operate at high levels, with weak willingness to replenish inventory, further weakening market support. Against the backdrop of an increasingly relaxed supply and demand pattern at the pithead and ports, coal prices are under pressure to decline, presenting a weak situation of “production areas lowering prices and destocking, ports selling and trampling”, and market pessimism spreading.

Entering March, with the continuous efforts of macroeconomic policies, the demand for coal reserves in non electricity industries (such as cement and chemical) is expected to rebound seasonally. Coupled with the fact that coal prices have fallen below some coal mine cost lines, the magnitude of price inversion has expanded or stimulated some users to buy at the bottom and hoard goods. The downward pressure on the market may gradually ease. If the progress of industrial resumption accelerates and the driving effect of infrastructure investment becomes apparent, the increase in non electricity coal consumption will offset the demand gap caused by the decline in heating, and the downward trend of coal prices is expected to narrow. In the medium to long term, if the economic recovery drives the sustained recovery of electricity and non electricity demand, coupled with the emergence of cost support effects, coal prices may gradually stop falling and stabilize.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 3rd to March 10th, the domestic butadiene market price decreased from 11462.5 yuan/ton to 11200 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 2.29% during the period. This week, the butadiene market continued to show a weak trend, and the overall supply in the spot market was relatively loose. The spot market was under pressure, and although the holders had a bullish attitude, the market atmosphere was difficult to support. The demand side synthetic rubber market trend remained weak within the week, and under the pattern of weak supply and demand, the butadiene market continued to delay its weak operation this week. As of March 10th, the self pickup price for containers in East China is around 10600-10700 yuan/ton.

Cost wise: The crude oil price trend has been weak during this period. As of March 7th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $67.04 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $70.36 per barrel. The downward trend in crude oil prices during this cycle is due to the easing of the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine. The United States is considering easing sanctions on Russia, which has reduced potential supply risks. In addition, oil producing countries plan to increase production slightly from April, which has affected the international crude oil market and led to a decline; On the other hand, the imposition of tariffs by the United States has intensified market concerns and may drag down global economic and demand expectations, leading to a decline in the crude oil market.

Demand side: The domestic synthetic rubber market is weak and slightly declining in this cycle. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the mainstream prices of butadiene rubber in Sichuan, Dushanzi, and Lande are currently at 13650-13800 yuan/ton. During this cycle, the futures price of butadiene rubber fluctuated and fell, and the supply price of butadiene rubber decreased, dragging down the market atmosphere. The overall spot market price was weak.

Market forecast: The recent trend of the crude oil market is still weak in the future, and there is insufficient support for the market. In terms of supply, the overall spot market supply has been relatively loose recently, and the market’s future supply expectations are weak. The demand side synthetic rubber market trend is weak, and demand expectations are weak. Overall, under the weak supply-demand pattern in the butadiene market, it is expected that the short-term market will continue to show a weak trend.

This week, the domestic fluorite price trend has risen. As of the weekend, the average domestic fluorite price was 3731.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.95% from the beginning of the week price of 3660 yuan/ton and a year-on-year increase of 11.38%.

Supply side: Limited mining operations and tight supply of fluorite

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight, and the inventory of fluorite enterprises is low. Some fluorite manufacturers are gradually recovering. However, the fluorite supply in northern regions is clearly insufficient, and the fluorite market trend has risen this week.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid prices rise, refrigerant market rises

This week, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid has slightly increased, and the mainstream price negotiated in various regions of China for hydrofluoric acid is 11300-11800 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid units are still shut down, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid remains at more than 50%. Fluorine enterprises maintain essential orders, mainly consuming inventory. The market price trend of hydrofluoric acid is rising, and the price of fluorite is affected by this news.

The downstream refrigerant market is on the rise, coupled with the strengthening of terminal policies in the refrigerant industry, demand is expected to achieve substantial improvement. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in raising prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the main trend in the foreign trade market is price increases, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The trend of refrigerant market is rising, which has led to an increase in domestic fluorite market prices.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF、 Graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc., have received certain support in the application of fluorite due to the demand for new energy and semiconductors.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production for safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. In addition, the downstream refrigerant market is expected to rise, and terminal demand is expected to increase. Overall, the domestic fluorite market price has an upward trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 6th, the reference average price of 85% industrial grade phosphoric acid in China was 6730 yuan/ton, which is 0.44% lower than the reference average price of 6760 yuan/ton on March 1st.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 6th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6900 yuan/ton, which is 3.27% lower than the reference average of 7133 yuan/ton on March 1st.

2、 Market analysis

Market Aspects

This week, the domestic phosphoric acid market has remained stable with small fluctuations, and prices have fallen in some regions. As of March 6th, the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6550-6950 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6550-6800 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6550-6900 yuan/ton.

In terms of cost

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. The market price of yellow phosphorus has risen this week. The supply of yellow phosphorus in the market is tight, and there is a strong willingness to raise prices in the market. Manufacturers are mainly reluctant to sell. It is expected that the domestic yellow phosphorus prices will strengthen and consolidate in the short term.

Raw material phosphate rock market. The phosphate ore market has remained stable this week, maintaining a high and steady operation. At present, the market supply and demand are balanced, and market trading is stable. It is expected that domestic phosphate rock prices will continue to operate steadily in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The phosphoric acid analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the phosphoric acid market has been stable with small fluctuations in recent days. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has increased, leading to an increase in cost support. The phosphoric acid market maintains a cautious and wait-and-see attitude, mainly digesting early orders, with limited market transactions. It is expected that the domestic phosphoric acid market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the 28th, the price of ethyl acetate was 5613.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.18% compared to the price of 5623.33 yuan/ton on February 24th, and a decrease of 0.30% compared to the beginning of the month. The sales pressure on the supply side is relatively high, downstream demand is average, and the market supply is strong with weak demand. The ethyl acetate market continues to decline.

This week, the domestic ethyl acetate plant started working normally, the market supply was stable, the raw material prices fell, and the cost was negatively affected. The downstream of ethyl acetate followed up on demand, and the market transactions were average. There was a lack of favorable conditions in the market, and the ethyl acetate market operated weakly.

In the future, some enterprises plan to increase the load of their ethyl acetate facilities, leading to an expected increase in on-site supply and increased pressure on market supply. Downstream weak demand is expected to follow up on demand, and market demand is limited. It is expected that the price of ethyl acetate will remain weak and stable in the short term. Specific attention should be paid to changes in supplier facilities and downstream follow-up situations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on February 27th, the reference price for cyclohexanone market in Shandong Province was 8925 yuan/ton. Compared with the reference price of 9000 yuan/ton on February 1st, the price has decreased by 75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83%.

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in February, the domestic cyclohexanone market in Shandong Province showed an overall trend of “rising first and then falling”, with market prices rising at the beginning of the month and then experiencing a sharp decline.

In early February, with the return of the Spring Festival holiday, the cyclohexanone market in Shandong region experienced an upward trend. On the supply side, some factory facilities did not start production on time after the holiday, resulting in less pressure on the supply of cyclohexanone on-site and tight spot supply. The supply side provided market support. On the cost side, the high cost side provides cost support for cyclohexanone. On the demand side, downstream demand is gradually recovering, and the solvent and chemical fiber markets are mainly focused on essential procurement. The focus of cyclohexanone negotiations continues to rise. On February 15th, cyclohexanone rose to its highest point of the month, with a reference price of 9200 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.22% in the first half of the year.

In late February, some maintenance facilities in the cyclohexanone plant started production, easing the tight supply situation in the plant. The support provided by the supply side to the market loosened, and the cost support for cyclohexanone weakened due to the decline in the pure benzene market on the cost side. Downstream demand continued to be dominated by essential procurement, and there was no significant improvement on the demand side. Therefore, in late February, the effective support for cyclohexanone in the market was insufficient, and the market situation began to plummet, with prices continuously approaching low levels. As of February 27th, the domestic cyclohexanone market price in Shandong region was around 8600-9000 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.99% in late February.

In terms of cost: In February, the cost side raw material pure benzene market fluctuated and fell at a high level, gradually loosening the cost support for cyclohexanone. On February 28th, the reference price of pure benzene was 7568 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.2% compared to February 1st (7553 yuan/ton).

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market is relatively light, and some enterprises are under certain supply pressure. Downstream demand is mainly based on demand, and cost support is weak. The cyclohexanone data analyst of Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 28th, the price of lead 1 # was 17005 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.21% compared to the lead price of 16070 yuan/ton on February 24th.

This week’s market analysis

This week, the overall lead price remained within a stable range, with a slight upward trend and a significant pullback.

primary lead

Shanghai lead continues the long short game pattern, with prices maintaining a sideways consolidation, and holders continuing to adopt a market driven pricing strategy. During this period, the inventory of pick-up sources in the refinery showed a downward trend, and some enterprises suspended individual quotation and pick-up business, shifting the flow of goods to the direction of social warehouses. Downstream buyers have limited inquiries about the supply of goods from social warehouses, and the focus of market transactions is still mainly on essential orders.

Regenerated lead

With the resumption of production by recyclers, recycled lead smelters have reported an improvement in the arrival of raw materials, resulting in a decrease in the purchase price of waste batteries. It is expected that as the amount of scrapped batteries gradually recovers, the supporting role of waste battery prices on lead prices will become limited. From the perspective of smelting, according to the production schedule of various enterprises, the resumption of production of recycled lead smelters is increasing, and the supply of recycled lead is expected to maintain a growth trend in the short term.

demand side

Recently, multiple recycled lead smelting enterprises have reported good delivery of waste batteries and sufficient inventory of raw materials; In addition, some companies have plans to increase production in March, which may lead to a continued trend of high raw material prices. Currently, the inventory of lead ingots in the factory is gradually decreasing, but the overall inventory level in society is still relatively high. From the perspective of actual demand in the terminal market, after the Spring Festival, although the electric bicycle and car battery markets experienced a period of post holiday replenishment peak, the amount of battery replenishment by dealers has decreased compared to previous years, and procurement behavior appears more scattered, which makes the order growth of production enterprises not significant.

comprehensive analysis

Currently, downstream lead ingot procurement activities are still focused on essential demand, and the overall consumption situation is showing a flat trend. Overall, lead prices may continue to fluctuate in the short term.