This week, the price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 13th, the DOP price was 8401.25 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 1.32% compared to the DOP price of 8513.75 yuan/ton on January 6th. The profit margin of plasticizer DOP is high, plasticizer enterprises are actively operating, downstream plasticizer enterprises have high operating rates, and plasticizer supply is sufficient. After the New Year’s Day holiday, the replenishment of inventory has ended, and the demand for plasticizers has slightly decreased. The price of raw material isooctanol has fallen, and the cost of plasticizers has decreased.

 

The price of raw material isooctanol fluctuated and fell

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 13th, the price of isooctanol was 7633.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 3.78% compared to the price of 7933.33 yuan/ton on January 6th. The construction of new equipment has been stable. This week, the equipment of isooctanol enterprises started at a high level, and the supply of isooctanol increased. After the New Year’s Day holiday, the replenishment of inventory ended, and the demand for isooctanol decreased. The increase in isooctanol supply and demand decreased, and the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell this week.

 

Future expectations

 

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, the price of phthalic anhydride has risen sharply, and the cost of plasticizer DOP has decreased; In terms of demand, the replenishment of inventory has ended and the demand for plasticizers has decreased; On the supply side, the construction of new equipment for plasticizers has led to high profits for plasticizer companies, active production by plasticizer companies, and an oversupply of plasticizers. For the future market, stocking up during the Spring Festival is expected to increase the demand for raw materials such as isooctanol and plasticizers, and the cost support for plasticizers still exists; Supply increases and demand decreases, and it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will consolidate strongly.

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of aniline has recently fallen sharply and slightly increased, with a decrease of 300 yuan/ton on Monday and an increase of 50 yuan/ton on Wednesday. As of this Friday, the spot price of aniline in East China is 9050-9100 yuan/ton, with an acceptance price of 9150 yuan/ton. It is reported that the aniline market has been experiencing sluggish sales recently, with significant inventory pressure. After price reductions, purchasing power has rebounded, and cost support is relatively strong. It is expected that the aniline market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

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In 2024, the domestic liquid ammonia market experienced weak supply and demand, with prices fluctuating downward overall. According to monitoring by Shengyi Society, as of December 31, the annual decline in liquid ammonia in Shandong region was 28.98%.

 

Let’s take a closer look at the annual trend of liquid ammonia:

 

From January to early February, the price of liquid ammonia fell sharply, reaching a high of 3600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, which was the highest point of the year. The market has undergone a transition from tight supply to loose supply. After experiencing the impact of reduced production caused by environmental inspections at the end of 2023, the supply and demand of liquid ammonia gradually recovered. In January, collective resumption of work and high operating rates led to a large-scale surplus of ammonia supply in the market. Overlay, the conversion of urea to liquid ammonia in co production enterprises has led to a short-term surge in ammonia production. Due to a decrease in downstream procurement, the amount of ammonia released by large factories has increased. Supply pressure continues to rise, manufacturers are lowering prices and shipping, and the market is generally falling. At this stage, the ammonia market fell by over a thousand yuan, which was also the largest decline of the year.

 

From mid February to mid May, the market entered a period of repeated oscillation, and in mid February, the price of ammonia rebounded, mainly due to the tight supply performance in the main northern production areas. Part of the equipment in the northern region is undergoing maintenance, and the rainy and snowy weather in some areas is affecting supply, resulting in a tight market supply in the short term. There is a common phenomenon of vehicles queuing up for goods in production enterprises. Returning after the holiday, downstream procurement has also recovered, and the combination of the two has led to a significant rebound in the ammonia market. In April, the ammonia market experienced a pullback due to the resumption of production and poor exports. Entering May, downstream demand in the market improved, and the delayed peak season for agricultural demand brought about a rebound in the ammonia market.

 

In June and July, the market was mainly volatile and downward, mainly due to high inventory pressure on enterprises. In order to alleviate the pressure, factory prices continued to be lowered. On the one hand, as supply increases, manufacturers’ shipments slow down and inventory pressure rises. On the other hand, the large import volume and low-priced foreign sources have impacted the domestic market. Supply is in an oversupply situation. Due to the lack of support from downstream industries such as urea and compound fertilizers, all products have experienced a decline.

 

From August to the fourth quarter, the ammonia market continued to fluctuate within a range, with the amplitude mainly narrowing. The approximate range is between 2500-2800 yuan per unit. The market has experienced a sluggish market during the peak season of “Golden September and Silver October”. The price did not fluctuate significantly and remained in a stable market under the pull of supply and demand. Except for partial equipment maintenance, there is not much news in the market that has a significant impact on the market. The volatile market continued until the end of the year.

 

Outlook for 2025

 

Supply side: As we enter 2025, the oversupply of liquid ammonia may become even more severe. More than 5 million tons of new facilities are planned to be put into operation in China in the next year. Considering the current weak ammonia market situation and the issue of production willingness, some facilities may be delayed in production, but the market still faces the risk of oversupply.

 

Demand side: The growth point of downstream demand for synthetic ammonia in the future will still mainly focus on the agricultural demand port, with moderate growth in industrial demand as the main driver. The main demand growth point is still in the urea field. In addition, there will also be some growth potential in industrial fields such as soda ash, acrylonitrile, and caprolactam. However, there may be insufficient growth in demand for monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate. Overall, the demand for liquid ammonia will continue to increase in 2025, but the growth rate may slow down.

 

Overall, it is expected that the ammonia market will face a relatively severe environment in 2025, with the crisis of oversupply not yet resolved, prices may be constrained by oversupply, and corporate profits will also face challenges. The expected price will be lower than the base price in 2024.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on January 6th was 828 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.20% compared to the average price of 826 yuan/ton on January 1st.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

The price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market has slightly increased this week. The operating rate of coking enterprises remains stable, while the operating rate of domestic enterprises has decreased. The supply of ammonium sulfate in the market has decreased, the source of goods is tight, and manufacturers are mainly raising prices. Ammonium sulfate can be purchased downstream according to demand, and the market demand is still acceptable. There are currently no favorable factors in the international market for ammonium sulfate, and the market is still weak. The recent decline in urea prices has a negative impact on domestic ammonium sulfate. As of January 6th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 810 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 830-860 yuan/ton.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic ammonium sulfate market has seen a decrease in spot prices recently, and the market trend has slightly increased. At present, downstream demand is stable, and foreign market trading is average. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic ammonium sulfate market will be dominated by price stagnation and consolidation.

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According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic market for maleic anhydride rose in December and then fell back, resulting in an overall increase in prices. As of January 3rd, the average quoted price of maleic anhydride was 6460.00 yuan/ton (including tax), an increase of 3.19% compared to 6260.00 yuan/ton on December 1st.

 

On the supply side: In mid December, the production unit of maleic anhydride in Yantai unexpectedly shut down, causing a significant decline in the supply of liquid anhydride in the market. At the beginning of the week, the main factory price of maleic anhydride increased by 1000 yuan/ton, and the dealer quotation also increased. Production resumed in Yantai in the latter half of the year, and the supply of maleic anhydride in the market increased. The raw material n-butane market fell, and downstream market operations were cautious, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment. The prices of major maleic anhydride factories fell, and dealer quotes followed suit. As of January 3rd, the ex factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6100 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of liquid anhydride is around 5700 yuan/ton.

 

Upstream: The overall price of pure benzene decreased in December. The inventory of ports in East China is accumulating, and prices continue to be weak. Shandong’s local refining transactions are sluggish, and market prices have decreased. It is expected that the pure benzene market will be weak and volatile in the short term.

 

The international crude oil market fluctuated and rose in December, with n-butane market prices first rising and then falling. As of January 3, the price in Shandong was around 5150-5200 yuan/ton.

 

Downstream: The unsaturated resin market in December was affected by fluctuations in the raw material maleic anhydride market, and as the end of the year approached, some unsaturated resin companies had plans to halt prices. Unsaturated resin urgently needed to be purchased downstream, which limited support for unsaturated resin. Currently, unsaturated resin mainly relies on demand for maleic anhydride.

 

The analyst of Shengyi Society’s maleic anhydride products believes that downstream unsaturated resins maintain a strong demand and provide limited support for the maleic anhydride market; The upstream n-butane market of maleic anhydride has slightly increased, but currently the transaction volume of maleic anhydride is average, and the market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will mainly consolidate in a narrow range in the near future.

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Review of the 2024 Soda Ash Market

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market for soda ash in 2024 is weak and weak, with a wide downward trend in price. At the beginning of the year, the average market price of soda ash was 2790 yuan/ton, and at the end of the year, the average price was 1528 yuan/ton. The price dropped by 1262 yuan/ton during the year, a decrease of 45.23%.

 

From the annual price trend chart, it can be seen that the price of soda ash will continue to decline in 2024, with only the soda ash market showing a rebound in April and May.

 

From January to March, the price dropped from 2790 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 1900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31.90%. Firstly, in early January and February, due to sufficient stock preparation before the Spring Festival in downstream areas, the demand for downstream replenishment weakened after the holiday, and manufacturers’ inventory accumulated, resulting in a weak decline in soda ash prices; From mid February to the end of March, the domestic operating rate remained high, and soda ash companies continued to accumulate inventory, which suppressed the mentality of the soda ash market. The industry’s mentality was bearish, and soda ash prices continued to decline.

 

In April and May, the price of soda ash rose from 1900 yuan/ton to 2170 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.21%. The improvement in the market during this stage is mainly influenced by macro information, real estate policy support, and expectations of overseas interest rate cuts, which have supported the recovery of downstream demand. Manufacturers have a positive attitude, and at the same time, some equipment on the supply side is undergoing maintenance, which has strong market benefits and boosted the continuous rise of soda ash prices.

 

From June to December, the soda ash market once again entered a downward trend, with prices continuously bottoming out, dropping from 2170 yuan/ton to 1528 yuan/ton at the end of the year, a decrease of 29.59%. In the second half of the year, the market supply remained at a high level, and manufacturers’ inventories continued to accumulate. However, the sluggish real estate industry on the demand side led to a weak glass market, resulting in low downstream demand for soda ash. The strong supply and weak demand in the market led to a continuous decline in soda ash prices under inventory pressure.

 

Fundamental analysis of the soda ash market in 2024

 

Supply side:

 

In terms of supply, starting from 2022, with the slowdown of public health incidents, property sales have risen, downstream housing construction demand has begun to recover, photovoltaic production capacity has expanded, and demand for photovoltaic glass has increased. The driving force of downstream industries has led the domestic soda ash industry into a rapid capacity expansion cycle, and the production capacity and output have shown a steady growth trend in the past three years. By 2024, the national soda ash production capacity will approach 41 million tons, with a production of 33.73 million tons from January to November, and an expected annual production of 36.53 million tons.

 

From the perspective of new production capacity, all new production capacity exceeding 3 million tons in 2024 has been postponed to the fourth quarter for some reason, and it is expected that the total production capacity will exceed 40 million tons for the first time by the end of the year; Lianyungang Debang and Lianyungang Alkali Industry’s soda ash plants are planned to be put into operation in the fourth quarter, and it is expected that production will be basically normal in the first quarter of next year.

 

Demand side:

 

The downstream glass market is expected to experience weak and volatile price trends in 2024, with a decrease in real estate completion data and weak demand for glass in the industry chain, leading to an overall downturn in the industry. From the comparison chart of glass and soda ash prices in 2024, except for the strong fluctuations in the glass market due to increased destocking in the fourth quarter, the price trend for the whole year is basically consistent with that of upstream soda ash, and the supply and demand sides of soda ash are running weakly simultaneously.

 

Import and Export:

 

From the import and export data of soda ash from 2018 to 2024, it can be seen that China’s soda ash import volume is relatively small, while the export volume is relatively large. However, the import and export gap has significantly decreased in 2024, mainly due to the decrease in soda ash prices. Considering domestic freight and storage surcharges, some traders have turned their attention to overseas markets with lower prices, resulting in a significant increase in import quantities. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the cumulative import volume of soda ash from January to November 2024 was 968200 tons, and the export volume was 1038600 tons.

 

From the perspective of new production capacity, a total of 4.8 million tons will be added in 2025, and the total production capacity may reach 47.45 million tons. The amount of investment in 2025 far exceeds that of 2024, and the domestic soda ash industry has entered a rapid expansion cycle. The supply pressure has further increased, and inventory levels are expected to rise simultaneously, thereby suppressing the expectation of soda ash price increases.

 

In terms of demand:

 

The decline in real estate completion data in the terminal market confirms the weak demand for glass in the real estate sector, leading to an overall downturn in the industry. The overall demand for glass in the future will gradually decrease, and price expectations are bearish. The consumption of soda ash will also be indirectly affected, and demand will remain weak in 2025.

 

Market forecast for the future:

 

In summary, it is expected that the production capacity of soda ash will continue to increase in 2025, but the demand side will be difficult to improve, and the market will continue to have a strong supply and weak demand situation. In order to improve the situation of domestic oversupply, exports may further increase in 2025. At that time, inventory will be slightly reduced or prices will fluctuate narrowly. However, with strong supply support, it is expected that the overall soda ash market prices will still be weak in 2025.

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In December, domestic liquid ammonia reversed the previous month’s upward trend and prices turned downward. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the decline of liquid ammonia in Shandong region in December was 7.88%. As of the end of the month, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is between 2450-2600 yuan/ton.

 

Equipment resumption increases supply and increases supply volume

 

From a supply side perspective, there has been a shift in the supply and demand structure. As we enter December, the operating rate has increased. Previously, maintenance companies have resumed work one after another, coupled with an increase in ammonia conversion capacity. The inventory pressure of enterprises is high, and in order to alleviate the pressure, factory prices continue to be lowered. Furthermore, with a large import volume, low-priced foreign goods are impacting the domestic market. Supply is in an oversupply situation. During the month, major factories in Shandong have repeatedly lowered the ex factory price of liquid ammonia, with a range of 200 yuan/ton. From the demand side, as we enter winter and the traditional off-season, downstream industries such as urea and compound fertilizers lack support, and industrial demand remains rigid with little fluctuation. Downstream weakness has further exacerbated the supply-demand imbalance.

 

The cooling of the industrial chain and the lukewarm upstream and downstream markets

 

From the diagram of the liquid ammonia industry chain, it can be seen that there has been little improvement in the upstream and downstream environment of liquid ammonia. After a long-term decline in the upstream natural gas industry, there has been a slight rebound with limited growth and little support. As of the end of the month, the monthly increase was 2.85%. Especially in the downstream sector, it is still generally cold, with more declines and less gains, especially in urea, where the decline is significant. This is mainly reflected in weak downstream demand and the off-season in agriculture. Currently, the increase in compound fertilizer production is lower than market expectations. The terminal production in the industrial demand field is also showing a downward trend. The market is generally dominated by rigid demand, and the demand side is restricting the ammonia market from getting out of the slump.

 

From the perspective of downstream urea, the urea market has shown a sluggish performance, with a monthly decline of up to 8.56% in December according to Shengyi Society. On the one hand, the supply performance is sufficient, but domestic urea manufacturers have insufficient ammonia conversion and high inventory. Combined with weak exports. On the other hand, there was no significant increase in downstream procurement volume, and the market performance remained calm.

 

Market forecast:

 

Business analysts believe that from the supply side, there is not much pressure on the market supply, and the impact tends to weaken as the equipment is on and off. The mentality of enterprises to raise prices is gradually strengthening, and there may be an increase in ammonia conversion enterprises in the later stage, with a trend of increasing ammonia production. However, overall, it is difficult for a large-scale market oversupply to occur in the short term.

 

On the demand side, in the short term, demand remains stable, and expectations for the later period may be weak. On the one hand, as the holiday approaches, trading is light. In addition, during the off-season of agricultural demand, industrial demand remains mainly driven by rigid demand. Overall, downstream demand for liquid ammonia may continue to drag down its price recovery in the later stage.

 

Taking all factors into consideration, the price of liquid ammonia will be difficult to emerge from the haze in the near future due to supply and demand pressures. In the later stage of the supply-demand game, there may still be downward space for the ammonia market. We need to pay attention to the manufacturer’s equipment start-up news in the later stage.

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According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 31, the price of lead 1 # was 16810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.70% from the lead price of 17100 yuan/ton on December 29.

 

This week’s market analysis

 

After experiencing a sharp decline last Friday, lead prices continued to maintain a weak trend this week. Although some downstream enterprises are willing to purchase on demand at lower prices, the supply of refined lead is still tight in some areas. The inventory of smelters and the social inventory of lead ingots have continued to decline.

 

Fundamentals

This week, the operational focus of Shanghai lead continues to show a downward trend. In terms of cargo holders, most choose to ship at a higher price, and their quoted premiums have generally increased compared to last Friday. However, the supply of goods from refineries is not sufficient. Some refineries choose not to ship, while others insist on a high price shipping strategy. It is worth noting that in response to the year-end inventory clearance demand, a few refineries have taken measures to reduce their quoted premiums.

 

Demand side

Downstream enterprises are adopting a wait-and-see attitude and cautious in their procurement behavior in the current market environment. As a result, the transaction volume in the individual order market is relatively light.

 

Inventory situation

As of December 30th, the total social inventory of lead ingots reached 53100 tons, a decrease of 0.31 tons from December 23rd; Less than 700 tons compared to December 26th.

 

comprehensive analysis

 

After the New Year’s Day holiday, we still need to pay attention to the consumption expectations of downstream enterprises resuming normal operations after the year-end account closure and inventory factors are lifted, as well as pre holiday distributors hoarding and ordering goods. The lead market may once again see a double increase in supply and demand.

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