This week (9.6-9.12), the domestic acrylonitrile market prices began to decline. At the end of August, the domestic acrylonitrile market rapidly rose and entered a consolidation state. The mainstream market price quickly rose from 8000 yuan/ton to 8600 yuan/ton. Recently, the market price has started to fall again, with the Shandong market experiencing a more significant decline. The spot prices of major factories in the region were lowered by 200 yuan/ton to 8200 yuan/ton. In less than half a month, the acrylonitrile market price rose and then fell back.

The reason is that this round of market fluctuation and rapid rise in the short term are due to the positive supply side, the fundamentals are still not substantially improved, the actual demand follow-up is not awesome, and the industry inventory is only transferred from upstream factories to intermediate links and downstream factories, not actually digested, which leads to the surplus of local resources, causing the market to fall back again.

Starting from late August, major factories in the East China region such as Sinopec, Zhejiang Petrochemical, and Shanghai SECCO have gradually reduced their production capacity due to equipment failures or cost pressures. The industry’s capacity utilization rate has rapidly dropped to below 70%, and Anqing Petrochemical also has maintenance plans in early October, providing market opportunities for growth. Shandong manufacturer Lihua Yi’s quotation has continuously increased, stimulating buying follow-up. During this period, both intermediaries and downstream factories have restocked, further driving up market transaction prices rapidly.

During this period, the inventory of acrylonitrile factories showed a downward trend, but more inventory was transferred to local tank farms and downstream factories. Some merchants held onto their stocks and waited for an increase, while the overall supply of the industry remained abundant. After entering September, there was no significant increase in production in major downstream sectors, and the actual consumption performance was average. Overall, the improvement in fundamentals was limited. As Shandong is the region with the most active spot trading volume, all four acrylonitrile production enterprises in the region are operating normally, and competition pressure continues to exist, resulting in poor sales for some manufacturers and prices falling first in the region.

Market expectation: Anqing Petrochemical plans to conduct maintenance in mid October, with a relatively balanced production and sales among manufacturers in the East China region. In the northern market, Liaoning Jinfa will resume operation of two lines, with an increase in supply. The differentiation between the southern and northern markets will become more apparent, which may promote the flow of regional resources. Overall, the domestic supply and demand are basically balanced. Considering the demand for stocking up before the long holiday, the market is expected to have limited downward space, and we will continue to pay attention to changes in the supply side.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of formic acid has slightly increased recently. As of September 10th, the average market price of 85% formic acid in China was 2625 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.94%.

Low operating rate and reduced on-site supply

This week’s formic acid production rate was 54.29%, a decrease from last week. During the week, some mainstream formic acid enterprises had their facilities shut down, resulting in a narrow reduction in overall supply. In addition, some manufacturers were also in a shutdown state, and the restart time is yet to be determined. At present, the decrease in on-site supply provides strong support for the rise in formic acid market prices.

Downstream demand is average, with limited upward momentum

Recently, downstream demand for formic acid has increased significantly, with average shipments from distributors and a light trading atmosphere on site. The downstream dye industry is about to enter the peak season in September, with slow demand growth and a significant increase in dye factory orders, which may provide support for formic acid prices.

Insufficient cost support

The main reason for the decline in the raw material methanol market is macroeconomic weakness. Domestic methanol supply has recovered, import volume remains high, and port methanol inventory has accumulated. In addition, some downstream industries are still in the recovery stage, and demand has not yet recovered to a high level. The domestic methanol market is mainly experiencing a downturn.

Market forecast:

The upstream raw material market price of formic acid is weak, the on-site supply is low, and the downstream peak season is approaching. Under the combination of multiple factors, the formic acid market is expected to fluctuate.

Golden September hits, epoxy propane prices hit bottom and rebounded, with prices soaring in Shandong region, with an increase of up to 160 yuan/ton. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 6th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8685.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.90% compared to the beginning of this month (8607.50 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors:

Supply side: Downstream polyether new orders increase, the shipping atmosphere of enterprises is good, releasing inventory pressure, and the focus of epoxy propane market negotiations is on the rise.

Raw material side: Recently, the price of raw material propylene has decreased and the price of liquid chlorine has increased, resulting in a situation of mixed ups and downs in the raw material side. The support for the epoxy propane market is still acceptable. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of September 6th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6938.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.43% compared to the beginning of this month (6968.25 yuan/ton).

Downstream demand side: The downstream order volume has slightly increased, but the sustainability is weak, the supply and demand transmission is not smooth, and the driving force for chasing up is not strong.

Market forecast:

Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that the current epoxy propane supply side and raw material side are supported by multiple favorable factors, and it is expected that the epoxy propane market will remain stable and strong in the short term. More attention should be paid to market news guidance.

The domestic fluorite prices have slightly declined this week, with an average price of 3400 yuan/ton as of the weekend, a decrease of 1.09% from the early week price of 3437.5 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 6.67%.

Supply side: Limited mining operations and low fluorite inventory

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, the national department needs to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of fluorite mining operation has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight, and the inventory of fluorite enterprises is low. However, the impact of imported fluorite from Mongolia on the northern fluorite market is significant, and the trend of the northern.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid demand, weak refrigerant, low operating level

Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market has fluctuated at a low level, with mainstream prices ranging from 10300 to 10800 yuan/ton negotiated in various regions of China. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market is consolidating weakly, with some units still being shut down recently. There is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid, and manufacturers have low orders for purchasing hydrofluoric acid. The overall production of hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%, which has dragged down the domestic fluorite market. Some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers purchase on demand, and downstream demand is poor. The domestic fluorite market remains weak.

The downstream refrigerant market in the terminal continues to be deadlocked due to poor demand transmission. After entering the off-season of production, market production demand weakens. In addition, refrigerant companies have poor stocking conditions and are not actively purchasing upstream products. The market for some refrigerant products has declined, and as a result, the fluorite market is weak and difficult to change.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as national defense, nuclear industry, etc., including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrode, photovoltaic panel, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the fluorite market is still supported.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production for safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. However, the downstream hydrofluoric acid market trend has declined, and the demand for downstream refrigerants has weakened. In addition, imported fluorite sources have formed a certain impact on the market, and both long and short factors have jointly affected it. Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society, believes that fluorite prices will mainly fluctuate in the later stage.

On September 3rd, the listing price of acetone in Sinopec East China was lowered by 200, with an execution of 6000 yuan/ton, and the listing price of Sinopec North China was lowered by 200, with an execution of 6000-6050 yuan/ton.

The domestic acetone market continues to bottom out, with prices in the East China market falling to 5900 yuan/ton. The market fundamentals have not changed much, but the market price has fallen to a low level. There has been an increase in inquiries from traders entering the market, and the intention of traders to lower prices in the afternoon has weakened. The offer price has temporarily stopped falling, and it is understood that the market transaction situation is average. Overnight crude oil prices have dropped significantly, and with sufficient supply in the acetone market, it is expected that the acetone market will maintain stable operation today.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of PET water bottle grade has shown a downward trend this month. As of August 30th, its average market price has been adjusted to 6767 yuan per ton.

In terms of raw material market this month, PTA prices have declined. As of August 29th, the average price of PTA in China was 5383 yuan/ton, a decrease of more than 7% from the average price of 5830 yuan/ton in the East China market on August 1st, which failed to provide effective cost support for the PET market. In terms of ethylene glycol, the price range fluctuated this month, first falling and then rising, and the current price is the same as at the beginning of the month.

Overall, PET cost support is average, market demand is weak, and trading activity has significantly decreased, leading to a further decline in the focus of PET futures and spot prices.

In terms of supply, although maintenance and restart coexist, the pressure on the supply side still exists under the expectation of new production. On the demand side, both upstream and downstream demand maintain bargain hunting purchases, and with futures listed, the industry’s wait-and-see sentiment is becoming increasingly strong.

In response to the current situation, senior analysts in the PET sector of Shengyi Society pointed out that due to insufficient cost support and relatively loose supply prospects, the PET market may continue its weak consolidation pattern in the short term. However, the actual trend still depends on the trend of the raw material side and whether subsequent maintenance can be implemented.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this week (8.19-8.23), with an average market price of 263530 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 267210 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.4%.

Recently, tin prices have fluctuated upwards. The refinery’s willingness to raise prices remains unchanged, resulting in average communication flow. In terms of spot market prices, they are still in a relatively high range, and the actual acceptance capacity is insufficient. Although some people continue to inquire about prices, most downstream enterprises are observing and observing, and the actual transaction volume is not ideal.

In the short term, the weakness of consumer terminals has not changed, and the basic pattern has not undergone substantial changes.