1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of aniline has risen strongly this week. On August 4th, the market price of aniline was 9825 yuan/ton, and on August 9th it was 10550 yuan/ton. The price increased by 7.38% compared to last week and decreased by 5.32% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

This week, the aniline market rebounded strongly and experienced three consecutive increases. Due to the continuous decline in aniline prices in the early stage, enterprises entered a state of loss and smoothness. Mainstream factories began to actively promote price increases, which led to an increase in market purchasing and sales enthusiasm. Downstream buyers rose and entered the market, and the market atmosphere improved. Upstream effectively destocked.

Pure benzene: The pure benzene market has been fluctuating recently, with a slight rebound this week. However, due to sufficient supply and weak demand, the upward trend is weak, and the overall trend is slightly downward. On August 1st, the average price of pure benzene was 8438 yuan/ton, and on August 9th, the average price of pure benzene was 8420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.25% during the period.

3、 Future expectations

The current aniline market is stable in terms of purchase and sales, and the upstream cost pressure has been effectively released. Considering the downstream acceptance level, the resistance to further price increases, and it is expected that the market will consolidate in the short term.

This week, the domestic acrylic acid market prices remained stable, with prices in the South China acrylic acid market ranging from 6600-6625 yuan/ton. The market price of raw material propylene has been lowered. The cost support of the acrylic acid market has weakened, and the downstream butyl acrylate market is experiencing a downward trend. The atmosphere in the venue is deadlocked, with limited cost support, downstream users mainly consuming contracts, cautious spot purchases, flexible offers from butyl acrylate suppliers, and weak market negotiation focus. Recently, the trend of raw materials has been declining, and the market for acrylic acid is cool. Under the guidance of multiple market factors, the price of acrylic acid remains stable due to the smooth flow of goods in the yard.

The main reasons for the market price of acrylic acid are as follows:

In terms of cost

International oil prices continue to rise, but there is an expectation of increased supply in the current market, and the impact of low-priced sources is significant, which has limited support for price trends, resulting in weak prices in the propylene market. The mainstream price in East China is between 7100-7150 yuan/ton, and there are still some downstream buyers in Zhejiang who have a strong desire to buy, but they mainly rely on contracts and small contracts for volume trading.

In terms of demand

The main downstream acrylic esters are mainly on the rise, and recently the butyl acrylate market has been declining. The price of butyl acrylate in East China is around 9000-9150 yuan/ton, and the atmosphere in the market is deadlocked, with limited cost support. The center of gravity of n-butanol market prices is declining, with a price of 7650 yuan/ton in the Shandong market. The wait-and-see atmosphere is intensifying, and mainstream factories are actively offering discounts and reducing inventory. Downstream users are cautious in their operations, and low-priced transactions are the main trend in the market. The domestic n-butanol market is operating weakly.

Overall

The domestic acrylic acid market price is temporarily stable, and the cost side propylene price is running weakly, supporting the weak price of the acrylic acid market; The demand side is driven by the support of other raw materials and the tight supply flow, which still provides sufficient support for the current acrylic acid market. Business analysts predict that in the future, the cost pressure on acrylic acid companies will increase and the recovery of terminal demand will be slow, making it difficult to maintain the subsequent rise of acrylic acid and esters.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of acetic acid fluctuated and rose in July, with a price of 3325 yuan/ton as of July 31. Compared with the acetic acid price of 3080 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, it increased by 245 yuan/ton during the month, with an overall increase of 7.95%.

As of the end of the month, the market price details of acetic acid in various regions of China in July are as follows:

Region/ On July 1st/ July 16th/ July 31st

South China region/ 3100 yuan/ton/ 3225 yuan/ton/ 3175 yuan/ton

North China region/ 3100 yuan/ton/ 3375 yuan/ton/ 3225 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 3080 yuan/ton/ 3350 yuan/ton/ 3275 yuan/ton

Jiangsu region/ 2955 yuan/ton/ 3200 yuan/ton/ 3175 yuan/ton

Zhejiang region/ 3055 yuan/ton/ 3300 yuan/ton/ 3275 yuan/ton

The acetic acid market fluctuated strongly in July. At the beginning of the month, the manufacturer’s equipment was operating normally, the company’s supply of goods was sufficient, downstream demand was sluggish, the market trading atmosphere was average, the company’s inventory accumulated, and the price of acetic acid continued to decline in June; In the middle of the month, the bidding prices in the northwest region continued to rise, and there was a strong intention to increase prices in the market. Downstream buyers actively entered the market, and the market trading atmosphere improved. Acetic acid prices in many places rose; In the latter half of the month, the recovery of demand side procurement was weak, and some manufacturers had poor shipments, resulting in a significant decrease in acetic acid prices. At the end of the month, the bidding prices of the main factories in the northwest remained strong and rose, while other regions were optimistic, leading to a rebound in acetic acid market prices.

The methanol market on the raw material side is weak and volatile. As of July 31st, the average price in the domestic market was 2510.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.89% compared to the beginning of the month price of 2532.50 yuan/ton. During the month, the overall supply of methanol market was sufficient, and downstream demand remained weak. Except for some methanol plant maintenance and downstream stage procurement, which boosted the market to a certain extent, the overall performance of methanol prices was weak, and market trading was limited. The methanol market is observing and consolidating its operation.

Market forecast: Business analysts believe that the price of acetic acid is rebounding and rising, and the supply side plans to have more equipment maintenance in August, resulting in a decrease in market supply; On the demand side, downstream customers follow up on demand for goods, and the market mentality is mainly wait-and-see. Considering the impact of buying up rather than buying down sentiment, it is expected that the acetic acid market price will be strong in August, and specific attention will be paid to downstream replenishment in the future.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8622 yuan/ton on July 1, and the average price was 8404 yuan/ton on July 31, with a price drop of 2.53% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 10650 yuan/ton on July 1st, and the average price was 9950 yuan/ton on July 31st, with a price drop of 6.57% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8595 yuan/ton on July 1st, and the average price was 8137 yuan/ton on July 31st, with a price drop of 5.32% during this period.

The trend of polyethylene continued to decline in July, with high-pressure products experiencing a significant decline. The international crude oil market fluctuated weakly in July, and the cost side was somewhat bearish on the polyethylene market. With the gradual restart of the polyethylene maintenance equipment in the early stage, there is an expected increase in the supply side. On the demand side, it is in the traditional off-season, with a decrease in the operating rate of downstream product industries, limited order follow-up, a bearish market mentality, and a poor atmosphere for on-site transactions; There is no positive news in the macro aspect; There are many negative factors, with production companies continuously lowering their quotes and traders subsequently lowering their prices, with a focus on offering discounts for shipments.

On July 30th, the Dalian Commodity Exchange polyethylene L2409 contract opened at 8234 yuan and closed at 8172 yuan, a decrease of 78 yuan, with a high of 8245 yuan and a low of 8164 yuan, a decrease of 0.95%. The polyethylene futures market fell weakly in July, and the bearish futures market suppressed the spot market.

The high-pressure unit of Qilu Petrochemical will start operating at the end of July, and other units will also be restarted gradually; In addition, the LLDPE and LDPE units of Zhongtian Hechuang were restarted at the end of July and are currently in operation; The maintenance of newly added devices in August has decreased, and there are expectations of an increase in the supply side; The demand for PE market may begin to rebound in mid to late August, and agricultural film will enter the seasonal peak season in September. At the beginning of August, market demand may not increase significantly, and there is currently no positive support. It is expected that polyethylene will continue to operate weakly in the short term.