This week, the price of isobutyraldehyde stopped falling and rebounded, rising

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 15th, the domestic isobutyraldehyde quotation was 7225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.86% from the isobutyraldehyde price of 7287.50 yuan/ton on April 8th; The price of isobutyraldehyde increased by 0.17% compared to April 12th at 7212.50 yuan/ton. Cost support for rising demand is weak, and the downward pressure on isobutyraldehyde prices has weakened. The upward momentum has increased, and the price of isobutyraldehyde has stopped falling and rebounded this week.

The price of raw material propylene fluctuates and rises

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 15th, the price of propylene was 6892.60 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 1.06% compared to the price of 6820.60 yuan/ton on April 8th. The price of raw material crude oil continues to rise, the cost of propylene has risen, the supply of propylene is sufficient, downstream construction has increased, and the enthusiasm for propylene transactions has increased. This week, the support for propylene’s rise has increased.

Downstream demand is weak

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 15th, the price of new pentanediol was 9933.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.33% compared to the price of 9966.67 yuan/ton on April 8th. This week, the new pentanediol factory offered discounts on sales, resulting in high inventory levels among the new pentanediol manufacturers; Formaldehyde prices have fluctuated and fallen, while isobutyraldehyde prices have rebounded. In terms of raw materials, the downward pressure on new pentanediol has weakened, and the upward momentum has increased; Downstream demand for neopentyl glycol is weak. This week, the downward pressure on new pentanediol has weakened, and there is still upward momentum.

Market Overview and Forecast

Business Society’s isobutyraldehyde industry analyst believes that in terms of raw materials, propylene prices have fluctuated and risen, isobutyraldehyde costs have risen, and the support for isobutyraldehyde cost increases; In terms of demand, the market support for new pentanediol is limited, and the price of new pentanediol is fluctuating and stabilizing. In the future, the cost increase of isobutyraldehyde will provide greater support, and weak demand will continue. The downward pressure on isobutyraldehyde will weaken, and the upward support will increase. It is expected that the price of isobutyraldehyde will fluctuate and stabilize in the future.

Recently, the market price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has remained stable. At present, the mainstream price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is around 72000 to 73000 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw materials:

The price of lithium carbonate in the market has risen, putting pressure on the high cost side. Some companies have raised their prices by 2000 yuan/ton. As of April 11th, the benchmark price of battery grade lithium carbonate for Shengyishe was 116800.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.69% compared to the beginning of this month (116000.00 yuan/ton).

The price of lithium fluoride in the market is surging, with some companies raising prices by 5000 yuan/ton on April 12th. Some small and medium-sized enterprises are experiencing a low market operating rate due to the continuous increase in raw materials, which makes it difficult for pressure bearing equipment to be shut down.

Downstream aspect:

The purchasing demand atmosphere for downstream electrolyte enterprises is lukewarm, only maintaining the purchase of essential goods. Due to some enterprises having a certain amount of reserves, their demand for raw materials is not active, market transmission is not smooth, and there is no good news.

Post forecast:

According to data analysts from Business Society, due to the continuous increase in raw materials, the production cost of lithium hexafluorophosphate is under high pressure, and downstream electrolyte enterprises have weak demand. In the near future, the fluctuation of the lithium hexafluorophosphate market is limited, and it may focus on maintaining stable operation. More information still needs to be paid attention to the raw material market.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic market price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride increased in early April. As of the 11th, the quoted price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 7725 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.81% from the price of 7587.5 yuan/ton on the 1st, and a year-on-year decrease of 10.17%.

Supply side: The device operates stably and the supply of goods is normal

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, with a recent operating rate of around 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. Recently, the price of industrial naphthalene has risen, and the market for naphthalene based phthalic anhydride has risen, which has affected the price of ortho phthalic anhydride.

Cost side: Rising prices of ortho benzene, strong cost support

In the first ten days, the domestic price trend of ortho benzene increased. As of the 11th, the price of ortho benzene was 8300 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.47% compared to the 1st price of 8100 yuan/ton. The supply of ortho benzene is normal, and the operation of on-site equipment is stable. In the short term, the crude oil price trend is rising, and the price of mixed xylene is rising. The rise of ortho benzene market provides strong cost support for the phthalic anhydride market, and the price trend of the phthalic anhydride market is rising.

On the demand side, the trend of on-demand procurement in the DOP market is declining

In early April, the downstream DOP market price trend declined, with a price of 9750 yuan/ton as of the 11th, a decrease of 1.42% from the price of 9890 yuan/ton on the 1st. Domestic DOP enterprises started operating generally, and domestic DOP supply was sufficient. However, plasticizer enterprises still suffered losses in profits, and downstream demand was poor. The mainstream DOP price range was 9700-9800 yuan/ton. The downstream DOP price trend declined, and the purchase of phthalic anhydride was poor, limiting the price increase in the domestic phthalic anhydride market.

Technical aspect: The price line of Shengyishe crosses the 7-day and 30-day moving averages upwards, indicating that the price of phthalic anhydride has entered an upward channel. From the price line of the past six months, it can be seen that the price of phthalic anhydride is at a low level in the past six months.

Looking at the future market, the recent trend of crude oil prices has been mainly upward, while the price of ortho xylene has been rising, and the downstream DOP market is mainly fluctuating and decreasing. In addition, the price of phthalic anhydride is at a low level, and phthalic anhydride manufacturers have reported serious losses. It is expected that the market price of ortho xylene phthalic anhydride will slightly increase in the future.

In early April, the domestic PA6 market remained stable with slight fluctuations, and spot prices fluctuated. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 10th, the domestic PA6 mixed benchmark price was 14800 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of+0.17% compared to the beginning of the month.

Fundamental analysis

Cost factor: In the early stage, the high domestic load and high inventory of caprolactam upstream of PA6 caused its price to rapidly decline. Recently, due to the continuous rise of raw material pure benzene, the spot price of caprolactam stopped falling and stabilized in early April. On the supply side, although 87% of domestic caprolactam enterprises are still at a high load position, there are more enterprises with maintenance arrangements in the future, and there is an expectation of production narrowing, which may share some supply pressure. Overall, the cost support of caprolactam for PA6 has shifted from weak to stable.

Supply level: In early April, the load of PA6 production enterprises remained stable with an increase, and the average operating rate was raised from around 83% to over 85%. The market supply is stable, the supply of goods is abundant, and the inventory level is generally stable. However, due to the slower digestion speed of some sliced products, the accumulation of inventory has begun to increase recently, and the support from the supply side for the PA6 market has weakened accordingly.

On the demand side: In early April, the downstream enterprises of domestic PA6 had a decent load. Currently, the production of nylon filament is stable at a high level of around 84%, while the production rate of weaving is fluctuating at a narrow range of 73%. The main logic of downstream PA6 stocking still revolves around maintaining production. Although there is some support for demand side from rigid consumption, the profitability of nylon enterprises is poor, which will inevitably affect their willingness to stock up in the future. The bearish sentiment may gradually spread to PA6.

At the same time, the negative market trend of PA6 in the early March persisted throughout the month, causing the current market confidence to have not yet recovered. The buyer camp is influenced by a negative mentality, and trading operations on the exchange tend to be cautious. At present, the flow of goods is mainly concentrated in the delivery of early orders, and there has been no increase in volume for new purchases. Based on various downstream news, the demand side support for PA6 in the future may be favorable but difficult to achieve.

Technical analysis

The probability of a decline in the PA6 market is slightly higher than the probability of an increase, and spot prices may continue to search for market equilibrium points. The prediction model of the Business Society’s commodity analysis system shows that since March 10, 2024, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started a downward trend. Currently, both moving averages continue to decline in the same direction. On April 7, 2024, it is estimated that the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. crossing the 7-day moving average above the 30 day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is 41.89%.

Historical price monitoring [medium to low]: Currently, the price of PA6 has basically returned to the beginning of the year, with monitoring levels of 1-year medium high, 2-year medium low, and 3-year medium low. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of PA6 in the past three years is 14919.80 yuan/ton, with a median value of 15566.67 yuan/ton, a minimum value of 13233.33 yuan/ton, and a maximum value of 17900 yuan/ton. The low price difference (compared to the lowest price difference in the past three years) is 1516.67 yuan/ton, and the top price difference (compared to the highest price difference in the past three years) is -3150 yuan/ton.

In early April, the 30 day deviation of PA6 from the average fluctuated between -152.5 yuan and -79.17 yuan, and the price of PA6 was in a fluctuating state.

Future Market Forecast

In early April, the PA6 market fluctuated narrowly. From a fundamental perspective, it is expected that the supply pressure of PA6 will rise, and the sluggish consumption is likely to continue. Technically speaking, the probability of crossing the 30 day line above the 7-day line in the short term is relatively low, and the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe indicates that the possibility of PA6 falling in the future is greater than rising. In summary, the current PA6 market lacks guidance on bullish news, and it is expected that the market will fall more or rise less in the future.

This week, the focus of butyl acrylate has been pushed upwards. The raw material n-butanol continues to rise, and the cost supports the mentality of butyl acrylate factories. The supplier’s quotation is higher. As of April 9th, the benchmark price of butyl acrylate in Shengyishe is 9500.00 yuan/ton, which is 0.29% higher than yesterday’s (9472.00 yuan/ton).

Supply side:

Recently, the price of n-butanol has dropped first and then increased. Both long and short sides are engaged in a game around the fundamentals and news of butanol. The main logic of this market increase is the increase in parking of supply side devices, especially some devices in Shandong that unexpectedly reduced production. If this positive factor is delisted or the market has adapted to the tight supply situation, the market lacks clear positive support, so the rise of the n-butanol market is limited. As of April 9th, the benchmark price of n-butanol in Shengyishe was 7816.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.63% compared to yesterday (7766.67 yuan/ton).

Demand side:

The downstream acrylic lotion is in the off-season due to the lack of infrastructure construction in the terminal market. The demand for lotion is insufficient, and the demand for the emulsion is still in demand. Although the weather is getting warmer, the market is generally boosted. It is expected that in the near future, the cost side will be under strong pressure, and the factory mentality will be relatively warm.

The prices of downstream adhesive tape master rolls have recently been partially lowered, with mainstream market transaction prices ranging from 9200 to 9800 yuan/ton. The price of butyl acrylate has also increased, and the cost support for the adhesive tape master roll market is still acceptable. However, market demand is still weak, the transaction atmosphere is average, and the mentality of various markets is different. The actual transaction volume in the market is limited.

Recently, butyl acrylate has been operating steadily. At present, there is still a certain level of demand in the downstream market, but downstream enterprises are weak in chasing high prices. If raw material prices continue to rise, the profits of downstream enterprises will be compressed, and the market follow-up momentum will be insufficient. There is a possibility that market demand will weaken.

Overall

Affected by the rise in raw material n-butanol and supply side contraction, the market price of butyl acrylate has risen to 9450-9550 yuan/ton. However, it is expected that as the rising trend of raw materials gradually stagnates, the upward momentum of the butyl acrylate market will weaken. Follow up on the market trends of raw materials such as n-butanol and acrylic acid.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 8th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6540 yuan/ton, which is lower than the reference average price of 6540 yuan/ton on April 1st. This week, the domestic price of thermal phosphoric acid remained stable.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic phosphoric acid market prices have been sorted and operated. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has slightly increased, with support from the cost side. The demand for hot process phosphoric acid in the market is limited, and downstream purchases are made on demand. The atmosphere for wet process phosphoric acid delivery has improved. As of April 8th, the market price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 6600 yuan/ton, and the market price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6300-6800 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6100-6800 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. The yellow phosphorus market has slightly increased this week. At present, the trading situation in the yellow phosphorus market is average. Yellow phosphorus manufacturers have a low intention to accept orders at low prices, with manufacturers mainly offering high prices. Downstream procurement is cautious, with demand being the main focus. Take as much as you need and wait and see. Overall, the market situation for yellow phosphorus is average. As of now, the market quotation for yellow phosphorus is around 22600-22800 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of raw material phosphate ore. The phosphate ore market has been operating steadily this week. At present, the overall trading volume in the domestic phosphate ore market is light, and downstream new orders for phosphate ore are mainly for rigid demand procurement, with the market waiting for demand to be released. As of April 8th, the reference price for domestic phosphate ore market is around 1062 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Phosphorus Acid Analyst believes that after the holiday, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus will strengthen, and cost support will improve. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market prices will remain stable with an upward trend. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in costs and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China on April 1st was 5616 yuan/ton. On April 7th, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 5650 yuan/ton, and the price of chlorinated paraffin increased by 0.59% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of chlorinated paraffin has increased this week. This week, the prices of raw material liquid wax and liquid chlorine have increased, leading to increased cost support. Driven by cost assistance, chlorinated paraffin enterprises have slightly increased their quotations. At present, chlorinated paraffin manufacturers are operating at low loads, and downstream procurement is required. Detailed discussions on actual orders are needed. As of April 7th, the ex factory price of 52 environmentally friendly chlorinated paraffins in Anhui region is about 6000 yuan/ton, and the national standard market price of 52 chlorinated paraffins in Shandong region is about 5400-5800 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax has increased this week. The current market trend is improving, with liquid wax fluctuating with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine fluctuated and increased this week. The market transaction atmosphere is improving, and the sales are still good, with actual orders and negotiations being the main focus.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s chlorinated paraffin analyst believes that the chlorinated paraffin market has slightly increased recently. At present, the cost side has strong support, and the demand side is mainly based on demand. The market maintains a cautious wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the market price of chlorinated paraffin will remain stable and rise in the short term.

After experiencing a significant decline recently, the acetonitrile market is currently in a weak consolidation state. As of April 3rd, the benchmark price of acetonitrile for Shengyishe was 9720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from Monday. The early price decline was due to a double decline in revenue and profit in the downstream pesticide industry; On the other hand, there is a sustained oversupply.

Recent Focus on Acetonitrile:

Demand: The operating rate of acetonitrile in the downstream pesticide field is still not high, and the demand side lacks sustainable and favorable support.

Supply: However, some factories have started preparing maintenance plans. Therefore, the downward rhythm of acetonitrile has significantly slowed down, supplier quotations have remained stable, and spot market trading remains deadlocked. At present, there is no change in the fundamentals, and demand remains weak. Buying is mainly focused on immediate follow-up.

At present, the supply of by-product method acetonitrile still dominates, and the supply directly affects the price trend of acetonitrile. Therefore, the price of acetonitrile is closely related to the operating rate of by-product method enterprises. Domestic synthetic method enterprises have increased, and downstream high-purity acetonitrile is mainly for self use, resulting in a reduction in export volume.

Next week’s forecast:

Overall, although there are positive factors on the supply side, the current price of acetonitrile is only limited to stabilizing and consolidating, and downstream demand for acetonitrile has not improved. The market supply surplus continues, coupled with a lack of cost support, the price will continue to remain stable in the short term. In addition, we need to pay attention to the export situation, but acetonitrile is currently at a low level, which may be attractive to intermediaries and downstream users.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of dichloroethane in China on March 31st was 2760 yuan/ton, and on March 1st, the average market price of dichloroethane in China was 2720 yuan/ton. The price of dichloroethane increased by 1.47% in March.

2、 Analysis and Review

In March, the market price of dichloroethane experienced a roller coaster rise and fall. At the beginning of the month, the market continued its upward trend in February and reached a peak on March 10th. The average market price of dichloroethane was 2840 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.41% compared to the beginning of the month. The markets in Shandong and Shanghai have rebounded, with companies mainly raising their prices, creating a strong trading atmosphere in the market. In the second half of the month, the price of dichloroethane stopped rising and fell, resulting in a weak trading atmosphere in the market. Since March, the focus of dichloroethane in the Jiangsu region has slightly declined, with poor new orders and main inventory consumption.

In terms of raw materials:

In March, the Asian ethylene market weakened with an average CFR price of $930 per ton in Northeast Asia, a decrease of $20 per ton from the beginning of the month; The average price of CFR in Southeast Asia is $1010 per ton, and the price is stable. The domestic ethylene quotation in East China is 7500 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month.

In terms of demand:

The operation of vinyl chloride factories in the Asian region is normal, and the supply of goods is stable. At the same time, downstream procurement continues the previous stable trend, and the overall supply and demand in the region is balanced. The transaction atmosphere in the vinyl chloride market is still good.

The domestic PVC market lacks domestic demand power. Currently, the quotation for ethylene based PVC in East China is 6150 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, and the market remains in a low and volatile state.

In terms of import and export:

In January, a large amount of dichloroethane was exported, and the market inventory was low. The price of dichloroethane in February was significantly affected by the increase in inventory and raw materials, and the export volume in February decreased significantly. Domestic consumption of inventory led to a decline in dichloroethane prices in March. According to customs data, the export volume of 1,2-dichloroethane (ISO) from China in February 2024 was 35 tons, with an average export price of 3411 yuan/ton. The total export volume of 1,2-dichloroethane (ISO) from China from January to February was 5564.349 tons, a year-on-year increase of 92%.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society believe that the market inventory is high, and raw materials are operating steadily with both external and internal fluctuations. The overall balance between supply and demand on the demand side is expected, and it is expected that the price of dichloroethane will remain stable, moderate, and weak in the near future.

In March, the domestic polycrystalline silicon market performed weakly, with little change in prices from major manufacturers and a loosening in import prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the monthly decline of single crystal dense materials is 3.72%. The main reason is that the supply of silicon materials is abundant, and downstream demand for photovoltaics is lagging behind. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, polycrystalline silicon saw a weekly increase and decrease of 0%. At present, the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a model of first-class solar energy has slipped to 55-6000 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, the operating rate of polycrystalline silicon remained relatively high in March, at around 80% or more. All the equipment in the large factory has started operating, and the supply is showing some pressure. On the one hand, the production of mainstream large factories is stable, and the addition of new production capacity brings incremental growth to the market, resulting in abundant domestic supply performance. However, due to the difficulties in increasing the burden on downstream silicon wafers, the inventory pressure of silicon wafer manufacturers is gradually increasing. In addition, with the slowdown of downstream procurement, the shipment speed of manufacturers has slowed down, leading to silicon material manufacturers starting to accumulate inventory. Although the current prices have reached a low level, manufacturers are gradually showing a willingness to stand up for prices. Most manufacturers have not changed much in factory prices this month, and the main reason for the price decline is the impact of lower import volume. However, the bargaining power of silicon material manufacturers may continue to weaken, and it is not ruled out that there is a possibility of a long-term decline.

From the demand side, the downstream demand for photovoltaics in the market remained relatively rigid in March, while the production of pulling crystals remained at a medium high level. Therefore, the inventory level of silicon wafers has also risen, mainly due to the decrease in downstream battery procurement volume. Battery manufacturers generally maintain low production to cope with the difficulties of sluggish terminal installation procurement, which makes it difficult to digest more silicon wafer inventory and puts greater pressure on silicon wafer factories to ship. Therefore, the price of silicon wafers has dropped significantly this month. Generally exceeding 10%. As of the end of March 29th, the mainstream transaction price of M10 silicon wafers fell by 0.3 yuan this week, to 1.75 yuan per wafer; The mainstream transaction price of G12 has fallen significantly, with a drop of 0.35 yuan to 2.45 yuan per piece.

Market forecast: Polycrystalline silicon analysts from Business Society believe that the upstream supply pressure of the photovoltaic industry chain may gradually become prominent, but the demand for installed capacity is still low. The upstream and downstream of photovoltaics will continue to remain sluggish, and the price of silicon materials is still difficult to improve in the short term.