Price trend chart of trichloroethylene

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the barrel price of trichloroethylene continued to be weak this week, with an average price of 6840 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 6560 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 4.09% during the week.

Analysis and Review

The price of trichloroethylene continues to decline, and the trading atmosphere on the market is light. The enthusiasm for raw material procurement has weakened, and the price of new orders is close to cost. Manufacturers have further weakened their profit sentiment. On March 6th, the barrel prices of manufacturers in East China slightly increased, but the market inventory is large and shipments are active. The quota policy for third-generation refrigerants on the demand side has been implemented, and the pattern of the refrigerant industry continues to optimize. The price war among manufacturers has weakened, and the refrigerant industry as a whole has entered a business cycle. In addition, with the upcoming peak season for downstream refrigerant stocking in March, manufacturers have a strong attitude towards price support, and the domestic refrigerant R134a price has risen strongly.

Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s trichloroethylene analyst believes that the upward price of refrigerant R134a on the demand side provides good support for trichloroethylene, and it is expected that trichloroethylene will fluctuate in the future market.

This week (3.4-8), the domestic ethyl acetate market showed weak performance, with prices fluctuating and falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of Friday, the decline in ethyl acetate was 2.24%, with a cumulative range of 100-200 yuan/ton. The main reason is the weak performance of supply and demand.

Since the beginning of this week, the supply and demand in the ethyl acetate market have been weak. On the one hand, the cost side has shown pressure. Since March, the price of acetic acid has continued to decline, with a decrease of nearly 2% this week. More importantly, downstream ethyl esters have been affected by weak supply and demand, leading to stable production by manufacturers and an increase in supply after the holiday; However, due to weak demand and negative pressure from both supply and demand, the price of ethyl ester has not remained stable. This week, Shandong’s main large factories bid for shipments, with the starting price lowered twice, exceeding 100 yuan/ton, suppressing market confidence. The market follows suit, dealers lower prices to ship, resulting in a bearish decline in prices.

It is expected that the ethyl acetate market will remain weak and volatile in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the price execution of raw material acetic acid and ethyl acetate manufacturers. At present, the mainstream transaction price in the market is between 6400-6600 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, as of March 7th, the price of high-quality power grade lithium iron phosphate is 43240 yuan/ton, and the price of lithium iron phosphate has shown a steady increase, with a weekly increase of 0.56%. After the holiday, the demand for lithium iron phosphate in the market has improved, and in March, sales of new energy vehicles have slowly recovered. The upstream raw material end has shown a strong trend, and currently, the lithium iron phosphate market is showing obvious benefits.

2、 Market analysis

In February, the production and sales of lithium iron phosphate were affected by the Spring Festival holiday, and terminal demand slowly recovered. The inventory of new energy vehicles was relatively high, mainly based on consumption inventory. After the holiday, it entered March, and the demand for new energy vehicles steadily increased. The upstream raw material lithium carbonate market rebounded, boosting the overall industry chain and strengthening the confidence of positive electrode material enterprises. Leading enterprises increased by about 40%, and the increase in raw material prices drove up the price of lithium iron phosphate, At present, the downstream demand side is improving, orders are increasing, and the overall trend is mainly strong.

In terms of cost: On March 6th, imported lithium ore prices increased by 50-250 yuan/ton, domestic lithium ore prices increased by 50-150 yuan/ton, and lithium ore prices ranged from 100 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton within the week. Currently, upstream carbonate prices have continued to rise for several days, and the market transaction atmosphere is improving. Lithium iron phosphate has strong support on the cost side, with prices passively rising and mainly rising.

In terms of demand: Currently, the new energy vehicle sector continues to improve, but the growth rate has slowed down. According to the latest data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in January 2024, China’s new energy vehicle production was 787000 units, with sales of 729000 units, an increase of 85.3% and 78.8% year-on-year, respectively. In January, the market share of new energy vehicles reached 29.9%. In February, wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicle manufacturers in China reached 450000 units, a decrease of 9% year-on-year and 34% month on month. There were relatively few working days in February, Due to the relatively weak automobile consumption before and after the Spring Festival holiday, sales in February showed a downward trend. Entering March, sales of new energy vehicles rebounded, and it is expected that retail sales of new energy vehicles in March will be around 560000 units, a month on month increase of 27.5%, a year-on-year increase of 25.8%, and a penetration rate of about 35.2%.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In summary, against the backdrop of the rapid development of new energy vehicles, as the main raw material for producing lithium batteries, the demand for lithium iron phosphate will continue to grow, and downstream demand will skyrocket. Currently, the price of upstream lithium carbonate is hovering around the cost line, and there will be no major decline in the short term. The main trend is to maintain stability, strength, or narrow upward trend. Therefore, the price of lithium iron phosphate is prone to rise but difficult to fall in the short term.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 6th, the average market price of phenylenediamine was 36166 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from last week.

In terms of cost

Recently, pure benzene has been experiencing consecutive days of poor shipments and a decrease in price.

The nitric acid market is mostly dominated by inquiries after the holiday, with prices continuing to decline and insufficient support for phenylenediamine in the cost side.

In terms of demand

The downstream operating rate has increased, and after the holiday, we will resume work and replenish goods as needed. The demand for customers to purchase dyes, pesticide intermediates, and other products has not significantly improved.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, upstream pure benzene saw weak consolidation and nitric acid prices continued to decline. Downstream urgent replenishment, industry insiders are mostly wait-and-see, market transactions are weak, and the stable operation of meta phenylenediamine in the later stage is the main focus.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the price of chloroacetic acid fell in February, with a price of 3175 yuan/ton as of February 29th. At the beginning of the month, the average price of chloroacetic acid was 3275 yuan/ton, but decreased by 100 yuan/ton within the month, a decrease of 3.05%, and a price drop of 10.1% compared to the beginning of the year.

Affected by the decline in upstream acetic acid prices, the price of chloroacetic acid has shown a weak downward trend.

Affected by rainy and snowy weather, logistics and transportation in the northern region are restricted, and acetic acid factories have poor shipments. Enterprise inventory has accumulated, and the market trading atmosphere is weak, resulting in a downward trend in acetic acid market prices.

Future analysis

At present, the trading atmosphere inside the chloroacetic acid market is light, and the shipping pace is average. However, as logistics transportation gradually recovers, the low inventory of upstream acetic acid will provide some support to the chloroacetic acid market, and the weak situation will be alleviated. In the short term, the chloroacetic acid market will mainly operate steadily, and specific trends still need to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, the price of raw silk reached historic highs this week (2.24-3.1). As of March 1st, the average price of raw silk in the domestic market was 530350 yuan/ton, an increase of 12000 yuan/ton or 2.32% compared to last week’s price of 518350; The average market price of dried cocoons is 165000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2500 yuan/ton or 1.54% compared to last week’s price of 162500 yuan.

This week, the electronic raw silk index and monthly spot prices have repeatedly reached historic highs, with the raw silk index in the Chinese cocoon silk trading market rising by 1.84%. In terms of the spot market, it is understood that in recent days, the specific prices of various grades and specifications of raw silk from silk reeling enterprises have mostly increased, mostly around 5000/ton, some higher, and some factories have already made transactions, some waiting for downstream acceptance of transactions; Some silk reeling enterprises have just started production and have not yet made a quotation or transaction. High quality raw silk units have shown varying price increases, and transactions have been more active compared to last week.

On the silk floss, some silk floss enterprises in Guangxi have reported that the price of silk floss has not increased, and it is currently basically at the level at the end of last year. Many home textile companies have only started construction and have not had much trading volume, so the price increase is not visible; Some enterprises in Zhejiang have reported that they are still supplying old customers at pre year prices, while others have reported an increase in raw material supply under the current situation.

On the price of dried cocoons, after the 15th anniversary, there have been reports of high prices for dried cocoons, leading to a significant gap in psychological expectations between buyers and sellers for prices, increasing the difficulty of transactions. The number of transactions this week was relatively small, and the transaction prices were basically the same as last week. Since last winter and this spring, stimulated by the high cocoon prices, the overall sales of mulberry seedlings in Jiangsu Subei, Zhejiang Hangjiahu, and local mulberry seedling bases in Guangxi have been good. The price of grafted seedlings has increased compared to the same period last year, and new mulberry expansion momentum is good in areas with foundations.

Downstream silk and satin enterprises have engaged in price adjustments for a small number of units and varieties this week, mostly ranging from 1 to 2 yuan; Some companies can only make minor adjustments to the conventional domestic sales of goods, while others still offer prices based on previous years in hopes of closing deals. Some silk factories have reported that the price of silk has increased, but the price of silk remains stable and there is a lot of pressure; Some companies have reported that the prices of domestic products that are currently being sold are basically not increasing or slightly increasing, and some customers are very sensitive to prices as they do not take the goods even after a slight increase; A silk factory has reported that export sales are mostly small orders. On the whole, there is an uneven distribution of hot and cold sales both domestically and internationally, with uneven distribution of hot and cold among different varieties, and the performance of enterprises continues to differentiate. Some innovative and fashionable fabrics are in high demand, with prices steadily increasing. However, competition between suppliers and rising raw material costs continue to put pressure on orders.

From the wholesale markets of silk clothing in Hangzhou and other cities, it can be seen that this week is in the period of opening in fifteen years, with a good opening state, but the foot traffic is still not high. It is expected that the wholesale trend will change with the start of exhibitions in various regions after March, the rhythm of regular delivery periods, and the rise in temperature.

In the current market environment of overall oversupply, with the transparency of overall consumption degradation, there is great competition pressure in the fabric and clothing product market, and the difficulty for enterprises to synchronously raise prices is also increasing. From all aspects, the market is recovering, but there is still some time before the true peak season, and the overall direction of the market needs to be observed. The key to the subsequent market trend also depends on whether the demand of downstream customers can be boosted.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of February 29, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 1052 yuan/ton. Compared with February 1, the basic price has decreased by 4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in February, the overall domestic phosphate ore market showed a slight decline. On the eve of the Spring Festival, the overall performance of the phosphate ore field was relatively calm, with most of the domestic ores suspended and mining suspended, and the trading atmosphere in the phosphate ore field was light. During the holiday period, the phosphate ore market was generally in a semi closed state, with no significant fluctuations in supply and demand. After the holiday, the overall production of phosphate ore has been average, and some mining areas are still in the closed mining stage. The downstream demand for phosphate ore has recovered relatively slowly, and new orders have been average. Some mining enterprises have narrowly reduced the prices of mid to high-end grade phosphate ore after the holiday. The reduction is around 10-20 yuan/ton. As of February 29th, the domestic market price for 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1000-1100 yuan/ton. The specific price may vary depending on factors such as the original ore specifications and powder to block ratio, and the specific price needs to be negotiated based on actual orders.

Prediction of future market for phosphate ore

At present, the overall construction of the phosphate ore market is steadily recovering, and the downstream market will also enter a stage of demand boosting with the warming weather. Therefore, the phosphate ore data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will mostly stabilize with a slight recovery, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the impact of factors such as demand and downstream shipments.

According to data monitored by Business Society, the price of carbon black increased significantly in February, with a significant increase after the Spring Festival. As of the 29th, the domestic N220 carbon black market price was 9966 yuan/ton, an increase of nearly 600 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month.

In terms of raw materials, the market price of coal tar has risen this month. As of the 28th, the price of coal tar was 4430 yuan/ton. Before the Spring Festival, most coke companies maintained a certain level of production restriction, and the supply and demand performance of the coal tar market was tight. After the Spring Festival, the third round of price reduction for coke fell, and coke companies were about to lose profits, leading to a decline in operating rates. The supply of coal tar in the coal tar field was tight, and downstream enterprise raw material inventories were quickly digested, greatly increasing their enthusiasm for purchasing coal tar, In some regions, coke companies have implemented significant production restrictions, resulting in tight supply of coal tar on site and an increase in prices. At present, the high-temperature coal tar market has maintained a stable operating state after a significant upward trend, providing strong support for the cost of carbon black. It is expected that the price of coal tar will continue to be strong in March..

Starting situation: From the perspective of post holiday operating rates compared to the previous period, most carbon black enterprises are currently operating steadily, with some maintaining high levels..

In terms of terminals, the tire industry experienced a significant shutdown during holidays before and after the Spring Festival, resulting in a significant decline in overall production. After the holiday, most downstream tire industry enterprises have resumed production, and the tire industry has resumed work and increased production, resulting in a significant increase in production and improved shipments. The current market inquiry enthusiasm has significantly increased, and the demand for raw material carbon black is still acceptable.

Import and export situation: According to customs data, China imported 24000 tons of carbon black in December 2023, an increase of 16.37% year-on-year and 6.47% month on month; From January to December 2023, China imported a total of 274000 tons of carbon black, an increase of 163.55% compared to the same period last year, with imports increasing by approximately 170000 tons. According to customs data, China’s carbon black exports in December 2023 were approximately 75300 tons, an increase of 43.03% year-on-year and 20.06% month on month. From January to December 2023, China’s cumulative export of carbon black reached 727000 tons, a decrease of 9.98% compared to the same period last year, and the export volume decreased by approximately 80600 tons

Production data: In January 2024, China’s carbon black production was 490300 tons, an increase of 37.22% year-on-year and 4% month on month.

In the future, the high-temperature coal tar market has improved, providing stronger support for the cost of carbon black; The downstream tire industry is still in a seasonal off-season, and the overall trading atmosphere is relatively cold. With early holiday arrangements, the demand for raw material carbon black is slightly flat, and it is expected that the carbon black market will operate steadily, moderately, and strongly in the short term.