According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of November 14th, the average price of PMMA, a general transparent and high-quality product in China, was 14566.67 yuan/ton. This week, the price of PMMA showed a narrow and weak trend, and compared to the same period last week, the price remained stable. Downstream demand procurement was the main focus of negotiations, and the focus of negotiations was stable.

This week, the general transparent grade premium product PMMA in China has shown a stable and weak trend. Compared to the same period last week, the price has remained stable, the purchasing atmosphere is average, and downstream demand is insufficient. Currently, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is still around 14600 yuan/ton. The operating rate is stable, and the overall market supply and demand is balanced. The factory has given up on profits and taken orders, and the cost support is weak. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and the willingness to hoard goods is not obvious.

Rubber and Plastic Index: On November 13, the rubber and plastic index was 675 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 36.32% from the highest point in the cycle of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 27.84% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PMMA analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, PMMA will remain weak and stable, with a limited range of price fluctuations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, from November 3 to November 10, 2023, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China decreased from 7800 yuan/ton last week to 7700 yuan/ton this week, a decrease of 1.28%.

In terms of crude oil: As of November 3rd, international crude oil futures fell. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $80.51 per barrel, a decrease of $1.95 or 2.4%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was 84.89 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 1.96 US dollars or 2.3%. The supply tension caused by the situation in the Middle East has eased.

The factory price of Sinopec pure benzene continued to be 7750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7600 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7603 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7600 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly decreased this week. On November 6th, the price of pure benzene was 7903 yuan/ton, and on Friday (November 10th), the price of pure benzene was 7800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.51% from last week and an increase of 12.23% from the same period last year.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen a positive trend in recent times.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, the crude oil and styrene market both weakened during the week, driving the overall weakness of the pure benzene industry chain. The pure benzene market continued to decline during the week, and the hydrogenated benzene market also fell significantly. The auction price of crude benzene also declined overall during the week, and the downstream pressure on prices was generally strong, resulting in a weak overall trend in the industrial chain.

This week, the pure benzene market continued to decline, with Sinopec lowering its listing price twice to 77500 yuan/ton, and a cumulative decrease of 3000 yuan/ton during the week. The hydrogenation benzene market has followed a significant decline, with a current execution rate of 7600-7700 yuan/ton in East China, and a decrease of 300-400 yuan/ton within the week. In terms of supply and demand, some hydrogenation benzene enterprises that underwent preliminary maintenance began to operate one after another during the week, and the overall operation rate of hydrogenation benzene increased, with on-site supply showing a slight looseness. In terms of demand, the market expects that there will be limited overall changes in downstream operating rates in the future, and there will still be immediate demand. Overall, the pure benzene market is still under pressure due to high inventory and loose supply, and the weak trend of crude oil has limited impact on the industry chain. It is expected that the overall industry chain will still be under pressure in the future, and there may be further downward space. In the future, the focus will be on inventory situation and crude oil trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from November 3rd to 10th, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China dropped from 9450 yuan/ton to 9325 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.91% during the cycle. The price fell 6.68% month on month and 3.79% year-on-year. The spot price of raw material pure benzene has fallen, and Sinopec has lowered its listing twice to 7750 yuan/ton, lacking cost support. The downstream chemical fiber and solvent market demand is average, and more purchases are made on demand. Some production enterprises have restarted their installations, with an expected increase in spot supply, weak fundamentals of cyclohexanone, and a decrease in transaction focus.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: Crude oil futures have experienced a significant decline, coupled with a slight increase in pure benzene production, resulting in a light spot buying atmosphere in the pure benzene market. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is affected by bearish factors.

On the supply side, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 6.55 million tons, and the current operating load is around 60%, which is at a relatively low level. The main production enterprises have limited product supply due to device maintenance. The weekly average operating load of cyclohexanone is 64.33%, which is+0.22% higher than last week. The weekly production is 89400 tons,+0800 tons compared to last week.

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream caprolactam production, and caprolactam is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. The caprolactam market has weakened locally, with recent declines in crude oil and pure benzene prices, weakening cost support, and two downward revisions in the listing price of pure benzene in East China, which has a negative impact on downstream confidence. Although there have been some short-term reductions in the supply of caprolactam, the overall purchasing enthusiasm of downstream polymerization factories is not high, and the prices of some caprolactam enterprises have slightly decreased. The demand side for cyclohexanone is temporarily bearish.

According to future market forecasts, the raw material pure benzene is expected to weaken due to fluctuations, resulting in a lack of cost support. Expected increase in spot supply and inventory of cyclohexanone, downstream follow-up on demand, and cyclohexanone analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market is weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate market was 1003 yuan/ton on November 3, and 976 yuan/ton on November 9. This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market price fell by 2.66%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic ammonium sulfate market price continued to decline this week. At present, the market demand is poor, and downstream and dealer inquiries have decreased. The international market continues to weaken, which has a bearish impact on the domestic market. The bearish sentiment in the industry is obvious, so be cautious when operating. As of November 9th, the mainstream market quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Hebei Province is around 950 yuan/ton. The mainstream factory quotation for domestic ammonium sulfate in Shandong is around 940-980 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the Business Society’s ammonium sulfate market believe that the recent trend of ammonium sulfate prices has continued to decline, with low downstream demand and relatively few transactions on the market. Currently, there is no positive support. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market trend will continue to be weak and downward in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, on the 17th, the average spot market price of nickel was 140541.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.6% from the previous day and a year-on-year decrease of 27.56%.

The rise of the US dollar put pressure on bulls to stop earnings and leave the market, with Lunni closing down 2.52% overnight. Several officials from the Federal Reserve have made hawkish remarks, stating that the US dollar has started a new round of rebound, the overall commodity market is under pressure and falling, and external metals are operating in a weak position. Fundamentally, Indonesia has increased production capacity for intermediate products and nickel plates, and domestic electrolytic nickel production capacity is constantly being released. Surplus expectations are gradually being fulfilled. The situation of nickel oversupply has not been improved, downstream demand for nickel sulfate is sluggish, steel mills are shutting down for maintenance, and nickel price fundamentals are still under pressure. It is expected that the short-term nickel price will remain weak and volatile.

Recent price trends of isooctanol

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province has significantly decreased this week. This week, the average price of isooctanol in the mainstream market in Shandong Province decreased from 12120.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 11280.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 6.93%, and the weekend price increased by 18.32% year-on-year. On November 6th, the isooctanol commodity index was 82.06, a decrease of 0.88 points from yesterday, a decrease of 40.32% from the highest point of 137.50 points in the cycle (2021-08-08), and an increase of 133.46% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream support increases, downstream demand weakens

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong have slightly decreased this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 7100.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6958.25 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 2.01%, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.60% at the weekend. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. Due to the impact of supply and demand, it has a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the DOP market price has slightly decreased this week. The price of DOP decreased from 11275.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 11191.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.74%, and the weekend price increased by 8.45% year-on-year. Downstream DOP prices have slightly declined, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol has weakened.

Future prospects

In mid November, the Shandong isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The upstream propylene market has an upward trend at the end of the month, with good cost support. The downstream DOP market has slightly declined, and downstream demand is average. Business Society Isooctanol analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and increases due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

Product name: Hydrochloric acid

Latest price (November 6th): 157.50 yuan/ton

On November 6th, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price slightly decreased, with a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to November 3rd, a decrease of 3.08%, and a year-on-year decrease of 15.63%. The upstream liquid chlorine market has recently experienced a significant decline, with insufficient cost support. The downstream ammonium chloride market is consolidating at a low level, and downstream purchasing willingness is average. The hydrochloric acid market is affected by the drop in liquid chlorine prices, resulting in a decrease in the market price.

In the future, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price may fluctuate and fall, with an average market price of around 150 yuan/ton.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of November 3, 2023, the domestic market price of organic silicon DMC was referenced at 14660 yuan/ton. Compared with November 1 (organic silicon DMC reference 14780 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.81%.

Entering November, the overall weak and narrow decline in the silicone DMC market. The quotation of Shandong Dachang Organosilicon DMC is based on 14700 yuan/ton, but the actual transaction price has been adjusted to 14500 yuan/ton. The leading Dachang Organosilicon DMC prices in Zhejiang remain stable at around 14500-14700 yuan/ton, while in North China, the price of Organosilicon DMC is based on 14700 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 100 yuan/ton. An industry insider stated that there are currently small factories in Shandong province with a price reference of around 14300 yuan/ton for organic silicon DMC.

In terms of demand: Currently, the downstream demand for organic silicon DMC is generally limited, and downstream customers have a general mood for stocking and restocking. Some downstream customers have received pre orders one after another, and their overall purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. In addition, the implementation of new orders at the terminal is slow, and the willingness of organic silicon DMC to directly purchase downstream is not strong. Therefore, the current market support for organic silicon DMC in terms of demand is average.

On the supply side: Currently, there has been little change in supply news. Due to downstream demand constraints, the pace of shipments in some regions has slowed down. However, in the early low stage of the market, some factories have received orders well, and the overall supply pressure is still not high. Therefore, overall, the current market situation of organic silicon DMC is mostly influenced by the demand side.

In terms of cost: Currently, entering November, there has been a slight decline in the upstream raw material metal silicon market, and the weak raw material market has provided average cost support for organic silicon DMC.

Prediction of the Future Trend of Organic Silicon DMC Market

At present, the trading atmosphere in the organic silicon DMC market is average. Although there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the downstream and overall demand support is average, there has been no significant fluctuation in the market prices of leading large factories. Therefore, the overall market price adjustment space is limited. According to the organic silicon DMC data analyst of the Business Society, in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market mainly adjusts and operates in small intervals, and more attention is paid to the changes in supply and demand news.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the domestic PC market in October fell and leveled off, with spot prices of various brands generally decreasing. As of October 31, the mixed benchmark price of Shangshang Society PC was around 16466.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.95% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: From the above figure, it can be seen that the domestic bisphenol A market has accelerated its decline after the holiday. In early October, international crude oil experienced a significant decline, followed by weak fluctuations due to loose supply expectations. The market for phenol and acetone, the raw materials for bisphenol A, was not ideal. Insufficient upstream support, coupled with the restart of the Yanhua Polycarbon Bisphenol A plant within the month, has led to an increase in industry operating rates and increased supply-demand conflicts. Overall, there is poor support for PC cost side.

On the supply side, the overall operating rate of domestic PCs rose in October and then fell, with the industry load increasing from around 68% at the beginning of the month to about 72%. At the end of the month, the industry’s load returned to 66%, and some devices originally scheduled for maintenance in October were delayed. The overall supply of goods on site was abundant, and the smoothness of enterprise shipments was poor. The factory price fell, providing moderate support for spot prices.

In terms of demand: In the early stage, there were many stocking operations during the traditional consumption peak season of the “Jinjiu” PC. As October entered, the enthusiasm of terminal enterprises to pick up goods decreased, and there was still raw material inventory to digest, resulting in poor demand for on-site stocking. The starting position of the superimposed terminal enterprises is not high, and the concern of the industry towards the market has increased. In October, the demand side has poor support for spot prices.

Future Market Forecast

The PC market stabilized after a decline in October. The upstream bisphenol A market is weak, weakening support for PC costs. Domestic polymerization plants operate with fluctuating loads, and the market has ample spot supply. Traders have a weak mentality and tend to offer at a discount. Downstream enterprises are chasing gains and selling, with poor enthusiasm for receiving goods. In November, there are plans for large-scale equipment maintenance, and it is expected that the PC market will be supported by it in the short term, leading to a stronger decline.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol first fell and then rose in October. The average price of the mainstream market price of neopentyl glycol in China first fell from 10450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 10325.00 yuan/ton on October 17th, a decrease of 1.20%, and then rose to 10600.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.66%. The price at the end of the month increased by 5.30% year-on-year. On October 30th, the new pentanediol commodity index was 51.08, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 50.70% from the cycle’s highest point of 103.61 points (2021-09-22), and an increase of 18.65% from the lowest point of 43.05 points on November 28th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream distributors of neopentyl glycol have fluctuated this month.

From a cost perspective, the market price of isobutyraldehyde significantly decreased in October. The market price of isobutyraldehyde decreased from 9000.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8233.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 8.52%, and the price at the end of the month increased by 24.75% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have significantly declined, and due to the impact of supply and demand, the support for the price of new pentanediol has weakened.

Looking at the future market, the overall trend of the new pentanediol market in mid to early November may fluctuate slightly and decline mainly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market has significantly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream paint market is average, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened. Analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the market for new pentanediol may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand, as well as raw materials.