From October 8, 2022 to October 14, 2022, the production price of coal tar in Shanxi continued to rise. According to the monitoring of the business community, the average market price was 6272.5 yuan/ton last weekend and 6335 yuan/ton this weekend, up 1%.

On October 13, the coal tar (high temperature) commodity index was 218.45, up 2.16 points from yesterday, down 0.04% from the cycle’s highest point of 218.53 (2022-09-28), and up 363.31% from the lowest point of 47.15 on December 6, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

The bidding price in Shanxi continued to rise slightly this week. The downstream deep processing industry has performed well recently, boosting the price of raw materials.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the monthly coal tar K column chart above that since January 2022, the coal tar market has risen for six months, only slightly declined in May, and the price remained stable in February. The weekly K-bar chart shows that the coal tar market has risen for 12 consecutive weeks, and only after a small price correction in one week, the price continues to rise.

In terms of the industrial chain, the price of products in the downstream deep processing industry continued to rise this week, only maleic anhydride continued to decline, and the price of anthracene oil, wash oil and other products remained at a high consolidation trend this week. The profit of the deep processing industry is fair this week, and the operating rate of enterprises is basically flat compared with that before the festival.

This week is the first trading week after the festival. Most enterprises completed the bidding activities before this Thursday. According to the bidding results, the prices in Shanxi, which had risen significantly before, rose slightly this week, while in East China, which had risen slightly before, and in the central and western regions, there was a large margin of replenishment this week. The mainstream price in Shanxi is 6250-6380 yuan/ton, Shandong is 6230-6250 yuan/ton, and Hebei is 6150-6250 yuan/ton. As the coke enterprises in the main production areas have successively limited production due to raw materials or transportation problems after the festival, the overall supply of coal tar is slightly tightened, and the tight supply has boosted the market mentality. The downstream deep processing industry has a fair profit at present, and there is a general demand for replenishment after the festival. However, it has resisted the rising tar price, especially after the rising trend of the deep processing industry started to stabilize this week, the downstream fear of heights has become stronger. To sum up, with the coming of October, the expectation of coke enterprises to limit production has become stronger, the overall supply of tar is tight, which has boosted the mentality of coking enterprises, and the enterprises have a heavy mentality of price fixing. While the downstream rising trend is not as good as that in the early stage, the deep processing industry has a strong fear of heights, and the business community in the future thinks that the coal tar market may continue to maintain a high consolidation operation.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1456 yuan/ton on October 8, and 1476 yuan/ton on October 13. The price of ammonium sulfate rose 1.37% this week.

2、 Market analysis

Ammonium sulfate market prices rose steadily this week, the market trading atmosphere was good, and the number of inquiries increased. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and the high price is still a wait-and-see attitude. The urea price rose this week, which was beneficial to the ammonium sulfate market. The inventory of ammonium sulfate manufacturers decreased and the shipment was stable. The bidding price of coking ammonium sulfate was raised this week, and the domestic ammonium sulfate also showed an upward trend. As of October 13, coking grade ammonium sulfate was priced at 1450 yuan/ton in Shandong and 1420 yuan/ton in Hebei. Domestic ammonium sulfate, the mainstream factory quotation in Shandong is 1460-1580 yuan/ton.

The downstream compound fertilizer market was flat this week, and the wheat fertilizer has entered the final stage, mainly for negotiation. The raw materials are stable and the transaction is light. The price of urea rose this week, with a small amount of agricultural demand in stock and industrial demand gradually ending. In the future, urea rose slightly after shocks.

3、 Future market forecast

According to the ammonium sulfate analysts of the business community, the recent narrow adjustment of the ammonium sulfate market, the continuous follow-up of downstream demand, and the smooth shipment of enterprises. The stock of ammonium sulfate decreased and the market traded well. Under the condition of stable demand, the market price of ammonium sulfate is expected to rise slightly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, aniline rose continuously after the festival, with an obvious upward trend. On September 30, the average price of aniline market was 12500 yuan/ton, and on October 11, the average price was 13750 yuan/ton, 10% higher than that before the festival and 10.29% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

On the cost side, pure benzene: Due to the strong rise of crude oil during the festival and the rise of pure benzene in Asia, the domestic pure benzene market has been boosted. During the National Day holiday, the market in East China was closed, and the local refining enterprises in Shandong had a good shipment and prices rose. After the festival, Sinopec raised the listing price of pure benzene twice, up 350 yuan/ton to 8200 yuan/ton (some refineries in North China increased to 8250 yuan/ton).

Nitric acid: During the festival, the domestic nitric acid market was generally sold. The price was 2333 yuan/ton on September 30, and 2333 yuan/ton on October 11. The price was flat before the festival, down 30.49% compared with the same period last year.

Supported by the rise in raw materials and strong demand for downstream additives, aniline returned to the market for a continuous rise after the festival. Although Jiangsu Yangnong overhaul plant was restarted before the festival, the supply increment was small, and the continued supply of aniline was tight.

3、 Future market expectation

After the festival, the 260000 t/a aniline plant in Shanxi Tianji is scheduled to be shut down for maintenance in the middle of this month. At that time, some MDI contracts may be outsourced, and the supply will be further tightened. On the whole, aniline may continue to rise in the short term.

On October 10, the mainstream quotation range of 1 # tin ingot in the domestic spot tin market was 181000-183000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 182000 yuan/ton, down 3000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.

During the holiday, the international macro news fluctuated frequently. Crude oil rose for five consecutive days. The market’s concern about the US economic recession grew. The dollar index fell for two consecutive days. The LME metal market rose and fell with each other, led by London Lead, which fell by 5.94%. On the night of the 7th, the LME market closed down across the board, and London Tin fell by more than 4%. Driven by the rise of the oil sector, the atmosphere in the domestic futures market is generally optimistic. The trend of the nonferrous metal market today is relatively divergent. In the morning, Shanghai nickel and Shanghai tin declined, while other metals generally strengthened.

Fundamentally speaking, the support of overseas demand in the near future is weak, the sales of tin terminal consumer goods, electronics, household appliances and other products are poor, and the market expectation is weak. In terms of supply, the supply of imported goods increased, the quotation of imported goods in the market increased, and the domestic supply of tin ingots was slightly loose compared with the previous period. After the festival, the downstream continued to maintain just in demand procurement and bargain hunting, and the market trading atmosphere was light. Due to the low inventory of tin, it is obviously disturbed by the macro and domestic capital. The business community expects that the future tin price will still be affected more by the macro, mainly maintaining a wide range of shocks.

After the power rationing and extensive maintenance of devices in August led to a sharp rise in silicon material market, in September, the domestic polysilicon market was stable at a high level, with a monthly increase of only 0.68%. As of September 30, the domestic supply price basically maintained the level at the beginning of the month, while the import supply declined slightly, with a range of 1000-3000 yuan/ton. According to the monitoring of the business community, the single-crystal compact mainstream range with the model of primary solar energy at the end of the month reached RMB 298-30900/ton.

From the perspective of silicon material commencement, the operating rate of domestic silicon material manufacturers has significantly increased this month. In August, five enterprises were overhauled or temporarily shut down, and in September, three enterprises resumed operation in succession. The remaining two sets of devices are expected to be recovered in October, with a significant increase in supply compared with the previous month. On the whole, silicon material supply is still in short supply due to the continuous follow-up of downstream demand.

From the perspective of downstream silicon wafers, silicon wafers continued to be stable this month. On September 27, Dachang Longji Co., Ltd. released the executive price of silicon wafers. The price was still the same as that in August, rising or falling to zero. The commencement of silicon wafer is generally stable, and the demand continues to advance.

In terms of terminals, the price of battery chips rose slightly this month, and the pressure on enterprises eased slightly. The operating rate has not changed much. The operating rate of components has basically maintained the previous level, slightly increased compared with the beginning of the month. The price has tentatively increased. The construction of large domestic surface power stations has been accelerated, and the demand side has steadily increased. Europe is short of natural gas, and the transition from traditional energy to new energy will increase the demand for domestic components.

Future market forecast: polysilicon analysts from the business community believe that the current silicon material supply has significantly improved compared with that in August. The maintenance devices will resume work next month, and the supply is expected to increase later, and the supply pressure will continue to ease; At the same time, it will also suppress the price of silicon material. However, considering that the downstream demand is only increasing, the supply and demand will continue to maintain a tight balance. Based on comprehensive consideration, it is expected that the silicon material price will continue to operate at a high level in October.

On October 8, the average TDI market price in East China was 21225.00 yuan/ton, 5.73% higher than that before the National Day, and the market price rose strongly. Market news: Shanghai Covestro’s opening quotation was raised in October, and the supply was still limited. The factory’s attitude towards the market was firm. At present, the spot supply in the market was tight, and the sellers were reluctant to sell. The offer was raised with the factory, and some closed offers were not offered temporarily. Downstream parties were wait-and-see, and inquired as needed. The dominant position of the market supplier was obvious, and the TDI price was high and firm.

The short-term TDI market continued to operate at a high level, focusing on market supply and downstream follow-up.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of September 30, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 8850.00 yuan/ton. In September, the DMF price dropped significantly, from 10625 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8850 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The overall decline in September reached 16.71%. At the end of September, the DMF price stopped falling and rebounded. The price has an upward trend, which is expected to continue to be strong until the first ten days of October. At present, the mainstream price of DMF is 8400-8700 yuan/ton, and the price is mainly strong.

In early September, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises as of September 7 was 10275.00 yuan/ton, down 3.29% compared with the price on September 1. DMF prices were mainly narrow and weak, and the overall market showed a downward trend. The mainstream price remained at about 10000 yuan/ton. As of September 6, the prices of upstream methanol enterprises in southern Shandong were concentrated around 2700 yuan/ton, while the local prices in Linyi were around 2760-2780 yuan/ton. The factory quotation of enterprises in the middle and east of Shandong is around 2680-2730 yuan/ton.

In the middle of September, as of September 19, the domestic DMF price continued to fall, 7.54% lower than the price on September 12, and the decline continued. The mainstream price range was 9500 yuan/ton. The atmosphere of transaction negotiation was general. The manufacturer gave up interest and took orders, and the shipment was slow. Downstream just needed to purchase.

In late September, as of September 27, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 8850.00 yuan/ton, down 0.28% compared with the same period last week. The decline slowed and there was a rebound trend. The overall DMF market price was dominated by strong operation, and the mainstream price range was about 8800 yuan/ton.

Chemical commodity index: On September 29, the chemical index was 984 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 29.71% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and up 64.55% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

According to DMF analysts from Business Agency, the DMF market is expected to run strongly in October, stop falling and rebound, and continue to rise.