Zinc price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, zinc prices have fallen sharply since January, although zinc prices rose slightly in February, the amplitude of zinc prices decreased, and the overall zinc market was weak and volatile. As of February 9, the average price of zinc was 20210.00 yuan / ton, down 5.22% from 21323.33 yuan / ton in early January.

China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index

China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 51.3% in January, down 0.6 percentage points from last month, according to the National Bureau of statistics. It has been above the critical point for 11 consecutive months, and China’s economy maintains the trend of expansion, but the decline of the index indicates that the rising speed is slowing down. Around the Spring Festival is the traditional off-season of China’s manufacturing industry. In addition, the recent local clustering epidemic has a certain impact on the production and operation of some enterprises, and the overall expansion momentum of the manufacturing industry has slowed down. Zinc market rise support is still in, but rise support weakened.

Supply and demand of zinc Market

On the demand side, the Spring Festival is the traditional off-season of zinc City, and the demand of zinc city becomes weak seasonally. Due to the repeated epidemic situation, the strengthening of environmental protection measures in the heating season and the increase of natural gas prices in North China, the production of galvanized pipe and structural parts enterprises is stopped and reduced more, the number of downstream customers is increased during the Spring Festival, and the market transaction is light. On the supply side, the output of smelters remains at a high level, the supply of zinc market is sufficient before the festival, and the overstocking pressure of zinc market increases during the Spring Festival; zinc ore processing fees continue to decline, and the actual profit of smelters declines. During the Spring Festival, the domestic logistics stagnates, and the port zinc ore inventory is likely to continue to accumulate. However, if the cost of zinc concentrate processing continues to be low or the smelter is forced to stop production for maintenance, the risk of shutdown still exists. Generally speaking, the supply of zinc is strong and the demand is weak before and after the Spring Festival.

Analysis summary and Prospect

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of business news agency, believes that: before and after the Spring Festival, the zinc market is a traditional off-season in the domestic market, and the demand of zinc market is weak; on the supply side, affected by the continuous decline of zinc concentrate processing fees, the risk of supply decline in the future zinc market is increasing. However, there are still great risks in the zinc market during the Spring Festival. The output of smelters during the Spring Festival is low, and the situation of smelters in the future is yet to be determined. The supply of zinc market is still sufficient. In the off-season of zinc market before and after the Spring Festival, the demand of zinc market is not enough to support the sharp rise of zinc price, and the zinc market is mainly on the lookout before and after the Spring Festival.

According to the monitoring of business society, the price index of domestic rare earth market continues to rise. The price of domestic PR nd rare earth continues to rise. The market price of terbium rises to a 10-year high, and the price of dysprosium reaches a 5-year high. The price of domestic rare earth market rises step by step. According to the rare earth plate index of business society, the rare earth index on February 4 was 478 points, up 1 point from yesterday, and 1000 points from the highest point in the cycle Point (2011-12-06) fell by 52.20%, up 76.38% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

From the rare earth index chart, it can be clearly seen that the domestic rare earth prices continue to rise, and the rare earth market has frequent changes recently, and the market prices continue to rise. In terms of products:

It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the domestic prices of praseodymium neodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy, neodymium oxide, metal neodymium, praseodymium oxide and metal praseodymium all rose. As of February 5, the domestic price of praseodymium neodymium oxide in rare earth was 464500 yuan / ton; the price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 575500 yuan / ton; the price of neodymium oxide was 572500 yuan / ton; the price of metal neodymium oxide was 710000 yuan / ton; the price of praseodymium oxide The price of praseodymium is 630000 yuan / ton, and the domestic market price of light rare earth continues to rise.

Recently, the demand for permanent magnets has increased significantly. New energy vehicles have been booming from 2020 to 2021, which has driven the development of many industries. The upstream material rare earth permanent magnet has also taken a “free ride”. The main rare earth raw materials of high performance NdFeB are light rare earth praseodymium neodymium oxide, heavy rare earth dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide, which are used in new energy vehicles, wind power, energy-saving frequency conversion air conditioning, traditional vehicles and other fields. According to the data released by China Automobile Association, China’s auto sales will reach 25.311 million in 2020. Among them, the sales volume of new energy vehicles reached 1.367 million, breaking the historical record. Downstream demand rose, and domestic light rare earth market prices continued to rise. Recently, the domestic heavy rare earth market price of terbium series has reached a 10-year high, while the dysprosium series market price has continued to rise.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the domestic price of dysprosium series continued to rise, with the price of dysprosium oxide reaching 2.345 million yuan / ton as of the 5th; the price of dysprosium ferroalloy reaching 2.325 million yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium metal reaching 2.975 million yuan / ton. The domestic price of terbium series rose sharply, with the domestic price of terbium oxide reaching 8.825 million yuan / ton, and the price of terbium metal reaching 11.025 million yuan / ton. The price of terbium series rose to a new level in 10 years. There are several reasons for the sharp rise of domestic heavy rare earth market prices. First, Myanmar’s political situation is turbulent, and the global rare earth supply is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great influence on the domestic heavy rare earth market products. The import source has decreased significantly. The sharp contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic heavy rare earth market has led to a sharp rise in the price of heavy rare earth. Second, the domestic rare earth purchase and storage plan is a good support for domestic heavy rare earth prices. In the purchase and storage plan, medium and heavy rare earth accounts for a large proportion of annual output, which is expected to have a greater impact on the supply, demand and price of medium and heavy rare earth. Third, in recent years, the downstream demand has been rising, the application of new energy has been growing rapidly, and the demand for permanent magnet has increased significantly, which has brought the greatest positive support to the heavy rare earth market. The price of heavy rare earth market has been rising continuously. Due to the tight supply of terbium market and the imbalance between supply and demand, the price of terbium market has reached a high level.

On January 15, 2021, the Ministry of industry and information technology openly solicited opinions on the rare earth management regulations (Draft), releasing the signal of standardizing the management of the rare earth industry and promoting the high-quality development of the industry. There are 29 pieces in the draft, which clarify the division of responsibilities of rare earth management, the approval system of rare earth mining and smelting separation investment projects, and the total amount index management system. It also emphasizes strengthening the management of the whole industry chain of rare earth, strengthening supervision and management. The state has made corresponding adjustments to the development of rare earth industry. The rare earth industry is developing towards high quality, and the policies are favorable to support the development of rare earth industry The local market price rose sharply.

The recent overseas economic recovery, especially the recovery of advanced manufacturing industry, is expected to drive further growth in demand. The domestic demand for new energy has increased significantly. In addition, the domestic rare earth supply is still tight, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the rare earth market is sharp. Business community analysts expect that the market price of rare earth will continue to rise in the future.

On February 3, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market rose, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $55.69/barrel, up US $0.93. Brent crude oil futures market prices also rose, the settlement price of the main contract at 58.46 U.S. dollars / barrel, or 1.00 U.S. dollars. So far, oil prices have risen significantly for three consecutive trading days this week. According to the monitoring of business news agency, WTI has risen by 6.68% and Brent by 6.10% in recent three days. On February 3, the settlement price of WTI reached the highest level in nearly a year.

On the one hand, the extremely cold weather caused by the blizzard attack in the southeast of the United States led to a rapid rise in fuel heating demand. Moreover, recently, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) have continued to effectively promote production reduction, which has brought a good supply side environment to oil prices. Moreover, the sharp decline in US commercial crude oil inventories in the past two weeks has become a direct driver to stimulate the rise of oil prices.

It began to snow in the northeast of the United States on the evening of January 31, and the snowstorm intensified on February 1. The temperature dropped sharply in many areas due to the combination of rain and snow. As of February 3, New York City and New Jersey have declared a state of emergency. Although the flight grounded depresses the demand for some aviation fuel, the impact is short-term. The market still mainly judges that the continuation of cold weather may continue to benefit the demand for heating oil .

Meanwhile, US crude oil inventories continued to decline, which directly stimulated oil prices. A week ago, the US Energy Information Bureau (EIA) released data showing that in the week of January 22nd, US commercial crude oil inventories fell 9 million 900 thousand barrels to 476 million 700 thousand barrels, and the data released in February 3rd showed that the crude oil inventories in the United States dropped by 994 thousand barrels to 475 million 700 thousand barrels as of January 29th. Analysts expect an increase of 446000 barrels. Crude oil stocks fell again. This is mainly due to the continuous vaccination of new crown vaccine, increasing demand, and OPEC + continuing to limit production, resulting in a decline in global inventories.

In terms of the recent implementation of OPEC + production reduction policy, the implementation rate of production reduction is relatively high. OPEC + has maintained a high implementation rate of production reduction since December last year, and OPEC’s output growth in January was less than expected. News shows that OPEC + will reduce production by 99% in December 2020. Among them, the implementation rates of output reduction of OPEC and its allies in December 2020 were 103% and 93% respectively, and Russia also performed positively. According to the agreement, Russia increased production in January, but the data showed that the increase rate was slightly lower than expected. According to the latest news on February 3, OPEC issued a statement on Wednesday, saying that Iraq remains committed to fully comply with OPEC’s oil production reduction policy and will compensate for the overproduced oil production according to the decision of OPEC and its allies. OPEC + actively and effectively reduced production to balance the current decline in demand caused by the epidemic and bring fundamental benefits to the oil supply and demand environment.

In the near future, the business community believes that oil prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term. At the macro level, after the US Biden administration takes office, it is urgent to launch large-scale stimulus measures, and the implementation may be accelerated later, which will bring direct and positive stimulus to the stock market and the oil market. The continuous promotion of vaccination also releases the expectation of rising demand. Although the epidemic trend has not yet been reversed, market confidence is still recovering slowly. The fundamentals of supply and demand also tend to be positive. At present, OPEC + production reduction policy continues to be effectively promoted. Iraq may compensate for production reduction in the later stage, and Libya’s production will also decline, which will balance the risks of the supply side. Moreover, according to the current signs, it is difficult for the US and Iran to return to the “Iran nuclear agreement”, and the short-term release of Iranian supply is not expected. However, the increase of shale oil production in the United States is still the main uncertain factor of crude oil supply in the future. Recent data show that the number of active drilling rigs for oil and natural gas in American energy companies has risen for ten consecutive weeks, and the increase of crude oil production in the United States is expected to increase significantly. However, the Biden administration will adopt a negative policy on traditional energy, and may achieve a certain degree of balance in the future. Overall, oil prices may remain high in the near future, and there is still the possibility of further exploration.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of February 3, the average quoted price of silicone DMC in the mainstream area of data monitoring was 21433 yuan / ton. Compared with the end of January (reference average price of silicone DMC on January 31, 21066 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 367 yuan / ton, or 1.74%; compared with the price on January 1, 2021 (reference price of 21833 yuan / ton), the average price decreased by 400 yuan / ton, or 1.83%.

With the Spring Festival approaching, DMC gains steadily

At the end of January, the domestic silicone DMC market was stable and upward. Recently, there were more pre orders received by monomer factories, and the confidence of the industry increased. Some factories also received limited orders, and the market was generally positive.

In February, silicone DMC rose steadily again. A large factory in Shandong raised the ex factory quotation of silicone DMC by 500 yuan / ton in two days. Other factories also raised the ex factory quotation of silicone DMC by 200-300 yuan / ton. On February 3, the mainstream reference quotation of silicone DMC was around 21300-22000 yuan / ton. At present, in terms of demand, as the Spring Festival is approaching, the early preparation of goods has been completed one after another, and due to the limitation of logistics and transportation outage, the downstream factories have been shut down and on vacation one after another. This month, the downstream replenishment has gradually turned into just demand, and the market has remained stable. In terms of supply, the current plant of silicone DMC is open or shut down, and the overall arrangement of orders is based on orders.

As of February 3, the reference average price of silicone DMC market in mainstream areas of data monitoring was 21433 yuan / ton, which was 367 yuan / ton higher than that at the end of January (reference average price of silicone DMC was 21066 yuan / ton on January 31), or 1.74%; and 400 yuan / ton lower than that on January 1, 2021 (reference price was 21833 yuan / ton), or 1.83%.

Before the festival, the silicone DMC market is mainly stable

At present, the market price of organosilicon DMC is still reasonable after a steady correction. Some organosilicon DMC manufacturers receive orders in a limited amount, so they are confident that they will continue to be bullish after the festival. In addition, the current price has little risk for downstream replenishment and hoarding. Therefore, it is expected that the market of organosilicon DMC will fall slightly in the short term, and the overall market will be stable.

Trade name: ammonium chloride

Latest price (February 2): 652.50 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the market of ammonium chloride rose slightly. According to the monitoring of business society, the price of domestic dry ammonium chloride was 652.50 yuan / ton on the 2nd, 2.35% higher than that of the previous day. The start-up of manufacturers has not changed much. According to the business community, at present, the overall start-up rate of Lianhe soda is about 70%, and the pressure on the supply side is not big. Some enterprises mainly place orders in the early stage, but do not accept orders at present. On the demand side, affected by the rising price of urea, the downstream has a preference for the purchase of ammonium chloride. According to the business community, the overall operating rate of domestic model compound fertilizer enterprises is between 40% and 50%. According to the monitoring of the business association, on February 2, 2021, Henan Jinshan United alkali plant was in normal operation. At present, the ex factory price of dry ammonium was increased to 620 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of wet ammonium was increased to 540 yuan / ton. On February 2, 2021, Sichuan Leshan Hebang Chemical Co., Ltd. was in normal operation with an annual output of 900000 tons. The inventory was low, and the ex factory price around dry ammonium was 600 yuan / ton. On February 2, 2020, Huai’an Chemical Co., Ltd The price of superior products of agricultural ammonium chloride of Bolian commerce and trade is stable. Now the price of dry ammonium chloride is 700 yuan / ton, and the price of wet ammonium chloride is 600 yuan / ton.

Future forecast, near the late Spring Festival procurement or will reduce, but high urea prices support, it is expected that the short-term ammonium chloride market will remain stable.

Domestic refined oil price adjustment “six consecutive rise” landing, but crude oil, gasoline steady small drop, poor gasoline demand expectations during the Spring Festival, MTBE market shipment blocked, domestic MTBE market price stable callback. According to the data of business news agency, the price of MTBE on January 29 was 4550 yuan / ton, down 0.37% compared with the price at the beginning of the week.

Recently, the international crude oil market lacks directional news, and the implementation rate of OPEC’s production reduction has not reached 100% while the US crude oil inventory has decreased. This week, the international crude oil price is in high volatility. During the Spring Festival, domestic product oil demand is expected to be poor, and gasoline market just needs to weaken. This week, domestic gasoline prices fell steadily.

Recently, the price of international crude oil is weak. In addition, transportation around the world is hindered to some extent near the end of the year. Local refineries generally ship gasoline, and refineries purchase intermediate materials such as MTBE on demand. MTBE manufacturers lack confidence in the future market, so price reduction has become the mainstream.

MTBE product analysts of business society energy branch think: the upward trend of international crude oil price is blocked, gasoline price is stable and callback, and the purchase intention of intermediate materials such as MTBE is weakened. It is expected that MTBE market price will callback.

In January, the domestic silicon material market continued to rise and continued to push up. The prices of domestic and imported materials rebounded to varying degrees. According to the monitoring of the business society, polysilicon rose by 5.25% in January. The main reason is that with the normalization of operation rate of silicon material enterprises, the production capacity has basically reached the limit. However, the downstream silicon material manufacturers have increased their procurement efforts, which coincides with the centralized production of silicon wafer in the downstream. Under the superimposed influence, the price of polysilicon continues to rise. As of January 29, according to the monitoring of the business agency, the current domestic mainstream transaction price of polysilicon with grade I solar material is 57000-60000 yuan / ton, and the tax inclusive price of polysilicon in non China region is 66000-70000 yuan / ton

Since the middle of December 2020, polysilicon has got rid of the fate of hovering at the bottom, and the price has begun to rise. In 2021, the market atmosphere is more positive. Both the transaction price of domestic manufacturers and the price of imported goods have a considerable upward range, especially the increase of monocrystalline silicon is relatively strong. Affected by this, although the increase of polycrystalline silicon is not as large as that of monocrystalline silicon, the market continues to warm up Still in the pattern of supply and marketing, the whole silicon industry ushered in a small spring market before the Spring Festival.

First of all, from the supply side, at present, the operating rate of domestic polysilicon manufacturers remains high. In January, about 11 domestic polysilicon manufacturers are in normal operation, especially in Sichuan, Ordos, Inner Mongolia and other regions, which provides an increase in market supply. However, the current high operating rate does not lead to stock accumulation, and enterprises generally sign good orders Orders in January have been signed, and most manufacturers have signed orders in February.

There are two main factors: first, the centralized production capacity of downstream silicon wafer manufacturers brings new vitality to the market. Second, the centralized purchasing behavior before the Spring Festival also expanded the demand for silicon materials, and the downstream purchasing volume increased significantly. And recently downstream manufacturers are also accelerating the process of digestion. In particular, considering the risk factors of traffic congestion caused by the epidemic in the later stage, the downstream enterprises generally order in advance, so that the silicon material can be increased in large volume.

In the near future, it is expected that polysilicon will maintain a relatively strong trend before the year, the operating rate of enterprises is expected to maintain a high level in the near future, there are few maintenance plans for enterprises, and the supply is mainly stable. In addition, the demand for polysilicon materials should be maintained at a high level due to the continuous large-scale procurement of downstream silicon chips before the festival. In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic, there are certain risk factors in transportation, and the price of polysilicon may be easy to rise but difficult to fall before the Festival. After the festival, it is necessary to observe the inventory consumption rate of downstream silicon wafer manufacturers. At present, there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the downstream. If the shipment slows down in the later stage, the polysilicon material may stop rising or fall back.

Note: the above price includes tax