1、 Price trend of epichlorohydrin

(Figure: p-value curve of epichlorohydrin product)

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of January 12, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 12166.67 yuan / ton, down 1.35% compared with the previous trading day, down 2.67% compared with last Tuesday (January 5) and up 0.27% compared with December 12.

Recently, the market price of epichlorohydrin has fallen, the accumulated inventory has increased, and the demand has not been followed up. In addition, with the mentality of buying up but not buying down, the delivery of goods is under pressure, the low price supply in the market is frequent, the confidence in the market is weak, the market atmosphere is light, the trading is small, the order just needs to be followed up, and the feeling of cautious wait-and-see is strong.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of epichlorohydrin of some enterprises is summarized (for reference only, the spot price of the merchants depends on the market, and the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation.)

Enterprise market price specification date

Jinan Mingyu Chemical Co., Ltd. ￥ 11600 / T ﹣ GB 99.9 ﹣ 2021-01-12

Shandong Yukang Chemical Co., Ltd. (?) 12500 yuan / ton, (?) high quality products; 99.9% min, (?) 2021-01-12

Shandong rongnuo Chemical Sales Co., Ltd. (?) 12100 yuan / ton, (?) top grade products; 99.9% min, (?) 2021-01-12

Jinan Mingwei Chemical Co., Ltd. $11600 / T ﹣ GB 99.9 ﹣ 2021-01-12

Jinan aochen Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. $12000 / T high quality products; 99.9% min 2021-01-11

Upstream propylene, on January 11, Shandong propylene market price was generally stable. According to the price chart of the business club, the propylene price fell all the way at the end of December. It began to rise on New Year’s day and increased by about 100 yuan / ton on the 4th. On the 5th and 6th, the price was mainly stable, with only a few enterprises going up. On the 8th, some prices fell. Today’s price continued to stabilize over the weekend. The market transaction was between 7250 yuan / ton and 7500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was still around 7250 yuan / ton. Factory inventory is general, stable delivery.

For downstream epoxy resin, the focus of discussion on liquid epoxy resin rose on January 12. At present, the enthusiasm of downstream market inquiry has increased. The factory has no inventory pressure for the time being, and the price holder has a positive attitude. However, the downstream just needs to follow up and wait and see carefully.

3、 Future forecast

According to the epichlorohydrin analysts of the business community, at present, the cost support is limited, the downstream demand is poor, the pressure of manufacturers to ship still exists, the market supply exceeds the demand, and the downstream stock purchase mentality is cautious. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market may be weak in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance.

After new year’s day, the East China liquid epoxy resin continued to negotiate at 20100-21500 yuan / ton in barrels, of which the mainstream negotiation of solid resin was about 17200 yuan / ton. Compared with the previous period, the current factory orders were obviously insufficient. Most large enterprises implemented a single negotiation, and a few enterprises increased the pressure of shipping. In addition, the upstream raw material support is insufficient, and the epoxy resin will be promoted smoothly in the short term.

In terms of equipment, Nantong Xingchen 160000 tons liquid epoxy resin plant was shut down for maintenance; Huangshan Jinfeng 15000 tons solid epoxy resin plant was shut down for technical transformation. Guodu chemical’s epoxy resin plant is in the state of shutdown, mainly out of stock.

After the sharp drop of BPA, the rebound was weak, and the price of BPA was mainly kept in the range. The factories suspended the offer. In the market, the offer of BPA in East China and North China remained at 12800-12900 yuan / ton, which was lack of further momentum. At present, the market range is 12800-13000 yuan / ton, which is relatively stable on the whole. The market of epichlorohydrin, another important raw material, maintained a stable trend, with little change after the festival. At present, epichlorohydrin closed at 12200-12500 yuan / ton.

At present, the price of raw material bisphenol A in downstream resin factories is about 14000-16000 yuan / ton, while the price of epichlorohydrin is 11500-12200 yuan / ton. From this point of view, the profit value of liquid resin is low, and it has entered the bottom state. The business community expects that the short-term epoxy resin will maintain a stable trend, and the raw materials will give limited boost to it. However, the rebound of bisphenol a market has stopped the decline of epoxy resin market, and the short-term liquid ring will continue Oxygen resin maintains 20000-21500 yuan / ton

1、 Price trend

The factory price of octanol in Shandong fell this week. This week, the average factory price of octanol in Shandong fell from 11766.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 10966.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 6.8%, up 58.94% year on year compared with the same period last year. Overall, octanol market fell this week, with the octanol commodity index at 80.64 on January 8.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturers’ quotation, the factory quotation of Shandong octanol mainstream manufacturers fell this week: Jianlan chemical’s quotation for octanol this weekend was 11000 yuan / ton, down 800 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; lihuayi’s quotation for octanol this weekend was 10700 yuan / ton, down 800 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng’s quotation for octanol this weekend was 11200 yuan / ton, down 800 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week Down 800 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of octanol fell this week. The quoted price dropped from 7304.55 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7292.73 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a decrease of 0.16%, and a year-on-year increase of 4.43%. The upstream raw material market prices fell slightly, affected by the supply and demand side, which had a negative impact on the price of octanol.

Octanol downstream market, this week DOP factory prices fell larger. DOP quotation fell from 10250.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 9825.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 4.15%, and a year-on-year increase of 35.21%. The price of downstream DOP fell, the enthusiasm of downstream customers to purchase octanol weakened, the demand for octanol was general, and the future market operators mostly watched the trend of DOP.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of January, the trend of Shandong octanol market may be slightly volatile and fall mainly. Upstream propylene market fell slightly, raw material support was weak, downstream DOP market fell sharply, downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened, octanol supply was normal. Business community octanol analysts believe that: in mid January, under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects of octanol market in Shandong, the octanol market may fall slightly.

1、 Trend analysis

Copper prices rose sharply this week. By the end of the week, the spot copper price was 61248.33 yuan / ton, up 5.39% from 58116.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, 5.68% from the beginning of the year, and 25.84% from the same period last year. This week, LME copper rose again in March, closing at US $8205 on Friday, up 5.82%; this week, the Shanghai copper index moved up to 60390 yuan, up 4.48%. This week, the international copper index closed at 53750 yuan, up 4.41%.

Bitcoin rose sharply at the beginning of this week, while OPEC meeting promoted production reduction to drive crude oil up sharply, and market inflation expectations rose. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party of the United States basically controlled the two houses in the election. The market hopes that the United States will introduce more stimulus policies, and China’s infrastructure construction expenditure is expected to be optimistic. The overnight copper output rose by $99 to an eight year high. Concentrate supply may remain tight, and global inventory is at a historical low Under the background of continuously favorable macro situation, the market is optimistic, copper has broken through the 8-year high and reached 60000 yuan / ton.

Based on the above situation, the macro atmosphere is optimistic, the market risk preference is improved, and the copper price is rising, but the epidemic is still raging, the current basic support is limited, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the domestic PA6 market remained stable at a high level in December, and the spot price had a correction in the latter half of the year. As of January 1 of the new year, the mainstream offer price of Zhongyou 2.75-2.85 was about 12933.33 yuan / ton, up 2.92% from the average price in early December.

2、 The influencing factors were analyzed

In terms of upstream caprolactam, the domestic caprolactam market rebounded after rising in December, caprolactam continued to be in short supply in the first and middle of the year, and the spot price rose steadily. The average price on December 23 was 11400 yuan / ton. With the restart of maintenance equipment in the early stage, the supply of goods increased in the last ten days, and the effect began to appear, and the price gradually fell. Raw material pure benzene continued to rise in early December, supported by the external market. In the later period, due to the decline of crude oil, the continuous decline of styrene price and the increase of inventory pressure of pure benzene northern factory, pure benzene was under pressure. At present, the pure benzene market is volatile, and the cost of caprolactam is generally supported.

Raw material caprolactam market fell after rising, the cost of PA6 support in general. In December, the market of PA6 was generally strong, and all brands of products still rose in the first and middle of the year. PA6 has a certain increase in the early stage, and the price has been at a high level. Due to the pressure on the cost surface of some polymerization plants and the weakening of downstream demand, some polymerization plants passively reduce the load. Downstream factories and traders are resistant to the high price of goods. They prefer to buy on the cheap and purchase cautiously.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in December, the domestic PA6 market remained strong at a high level, and fell back at the end of the month. Upstream caprolactam supply increased, stagflation callback, the cost of PA6 support weakened. Downstream factory replenishment just need to give priority to, conflict with high price goods. PA6 has both cost side pressure and shrinking demand in the short term. It is expected that the spot price of PA6 will continue to be weak.

Price trend:

According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic ABS market declined in December, and the spot prices of various brands decreased to a certain extent. As of January 1 of the new year, the mainstream offer price of general ABS was about 15750 yuan / ton, down 18.18% from the beginning of December.

Factor analysis:

ABS upstream styrene domestic market from up to down in mid November, into December continued to decline. In the early stage, affected by the rising price of downstream products and strong demand, the market mentality is strong. The current styrene spot supply increases, the mainstream price continues to decline. Domestic units restart more concentrated in December, and the downstream demand is weak. The mainstream downstream is mainly supported by rigid demand, and the gas purchase is insufficient, which has a negative impact on ABS.

Butadiene market also fell sharply. According to the monitoring of business society, the domestic butadiene market price was 7751 yuan / ton at the end of December, with a decrease of 21.91% in the month and a year-on-year decrease of 6.07%. With the restart of Wuhan Petrochemical Company and Jiangsu sipang plant and the gradual release of Yantai Wanhua production, the supply side of domestic butadiene market was abundant in January, and the supply pressure was expected to increase after part of the source of export was transferred to domestic sales, which was also bad for ABS.

In December, the domestic ABS market adjusted downward, the price of upstream three materials was not strong, and the cost support was weak. Domestic ABS supply is stable, and the inventory of petrochemical plants begins to accumulate. On the downstream side, the consumption of domestic major household appliance enterprises and automobile industry is acceptable, but the market bearish sentiment is aggravating near the holidays. In addition, the long-term psychological pressure of ABS to buy goods at a higher price has gradually increased, which makes it difficult for downstream factories to buy goods at a higher price. The price of the transaction is low and the price is low.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: 12 ABS market fell, the prices of all brands have not a small reduction. On the cost side, the upstream three materials are weakening as a whole, which is bad for ABS. At present, ABS spot supply is sufficient, petrochemical plants and businesses offer continue to fall. It is expected that the domestic ABS price will continue to decline in the near future.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, on October 1, the average quoted price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 9166 yuan / ton. On December 31, the average quoted price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 11333 yuan / ton. Compared with October 1, the average quoted price increased by 2167 yuan / ton, up 23.64% in the fourth quarter. From October 1 to December 31, the maximum amplitude is 40%.

The market trend of propylene oxide in the fourth quarter of 2020 has a profound impact on the fluctuation of domestic propylene glycol market

It can be seen from the trend chart of propylene glycol propylene oxide in the fourth quarter that the fluctuation of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol market is closely related to the rise and fall of raw material propylene oxide. In terms of cost, the support and pressure of cost directly affect the domestic market price trend of propylene glycol. In terms of demand, the increase and decrease of demand also have a significant impact on propylene glycol. It can be seen that in late October, the raw material ring is very important Propylene oxide went down, but the demand for propylene glycol was acceptable. Therefore, the market of propylene glycol remained stable at the end of October. During the middle and late November, supported by both cost and demand, the market of propylene glycol rose to a high level in the fourth quarter.

After the National Day in October, the domestic industrial propylene glycol market fluctuated and adjusted. Due to the cost pressure caused by the continuous increase of propylene oxide, the market price of propylene glycol continued to be high, and the price rose slightly. In the downstream, the demand of users did not increase significantly, but it could still maintain the purchase of rigid demand, and the inventory in the yard was low. Therefore, propylene glycol kept stable operation after a slight increase in October.

On the first few days of November, as the price of propylene oxide fell and the cost weakened, the price of propylene glycol went down. On the 9th and 10th, the decline of propylene oxide stopped. As for the increase of propylene glycol cost support, the supply of propylene glycol was tight, the inventory was low, and the pressure on supply was small. The factory’s offer price began to callback rationally. In the middle of the month, the foreign trade orders of propylene glycol increased, and the demand increased. Under the condition of “one order is difficult to obtain”, the factory’s offer price increased by 1000-2500 yuan / ton. On November 24, the reference average transaction price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol rose to 12733 yuan / ton, the highest in the fourth quarter. Compared with October 1, the average price increased by 3567 yuan / ton, or 38.91%. After a slight decrease in demand, individual factories slightly lowered their quotations, but until the end of November, the overall propylene glycol market was strong.

On December 2, the quotation of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol market showed a “slide” downward trend. Propylene oxide, the raw material, began to fall since the end of November, and the support for propylene glycol gradually weakened. After the completion of early preparation, the wait-and-see mood of the downstream increased in the past two days, and the demand was insufficient. The offer of propylene glycol plant began to fall for 10 consecutive days since December 2. By the end of December 13, the average transaction price of propylene glycol plant had dropped to 0 10666 yuan / ton, down by 1967 yuan / ton or 15.57% compared with the beginning of December. Subsequently, the market continued to run in a weak position. During this period, individual factories failed to drive the overall market up after the price increase. On the 22nd of December, driven by the rising price of raw material propylene oxide, the market price of propylene glycol, which was depressed for several days, rose sharply for the first time in December. Then, individual propylene glycol factories in Shandong were shut down for maintenance. The supply of propylene glycol was tight, and the market was strong until the end of December On October 31, the reference average transaction price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol rose to 11333 yuan / ton. Compared with October 1, the average transaction price increased by 2167 yuan / ton, up 23.64% in the fourth quarter. From October 1 to December 31, the maximum amplitude is 40%.

Analysis of future trend

Near the Spring Festival, the logistics will be shut down, and the downstream will start to store goods one after another. At present, some factories in Shandong are shut down for maintenance, and the inventory in the propylene glycol yard is low, so the supply is tight. Therefore, it is expected that the propylene glycol Market will rise slightly and maintain a strong operation before the Spring Festival.

Commodity index: on December 30, the polyaluminum chloride commodity index was 98.69, up 0.39 points from yesterday, down 9.47% from 109.01 points (August 28, 2019), the highest point in the cycle, and up 17.04% from 84.32 points, the lowest point on August 18, 2020. (Note: period refers to from April 1, 2019 to now)

Monitoring found that since the water treatment plants in Henan main production areas stopped production in the middle of last month, the market of polyaluminum chloride continued to rise; in December, the market of polyaluminum chloride continued the trend of November, showing an obvious upward trend of shock. According to the monitoring data of business society, the lowest price of polyaluminum chloride with solid content ≥ 28% is 1740 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and the highest price is about 1825.71 yuan / ton at the end of this month. The monthly increase continues to expand to 4.93%, which is also the highest price of polyaluminum chloride since 2020.

Raw material cost: according to the monitoring of the business community, the price of hydrochloric acid in North China fell sharply this month. The price was about 310 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 287.5 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decrease of about 7%. The main factor is that the downstream hydrochloric acid production stopped, the demand decreased and the supply of hydrochloric acid exceeded the demand. Although the price of natural gas used in the production of polyaluminum chloride is high, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and the situation is difficult to change in the short term. However, because the polyaluminum chloride enterprise, one of the main production areas of water treatment enterprises, is still shut down, the fluctuation of the above three commodity prices has a weak impact on the water treatment enterprises.

Downstream demand: the current environmental inspection requirements are still strict, the new year’s Day holiday is around the corner, the demand has been relatively light, the follow-up is facing the Spring Festival holiday, I’m afraid there is no big demand before the festival.

Industry: in 2020, the water treatment industry will end with the best market of the year, and the production of enterprises will continue.

Future forecast: business community analysis believes that the new year’s Day holiday is coming, and 2020 is near the end. In January 2021, under the uncertain situation of the manufacturer’s resumption of production, the shortage of some sources of goods may last for a period of time. After new year’s day, with the approach of the Spring Festival holiday and the increasingly cold weather, the demand for polyaluminum chloride will be much lighter. It is preliminarily estimated that the price will be mainly stable.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the domestic price of carbon black was 7250 yuan / ton on November 30, with a price fluctuation range of 100-300 yuan / ton. The price of carbon black rose this month.

2、 Market analysis

From January to may 2020, the supply and demand of carbon black fell due to public health events, crude oil slump and other factors. From early June to the end of November, the market price of carbon black rose. The market price of carbon black is stable and rising.

Industrial chain:

From the perspective of raw materials, the price of coal tar is warming: the price of coal tar, the main raw material for carbon black production, is rising, which has obvious psychological support for the rise of carbon black price. In June, the mainstream price of coal tar in the main producing areas increased by 300-500 yuan / ton. In the fourth quarter, with the withdrawal of 4.3m coke ovens in some areas, the tight supply of coal tar was aggravated. Since September, the domestic high-temperature coal tar market has kept rising for 10 weeks, with only a slight correction in one week. As of December 1, the mainstream reference in Shandong and Jiangsu was 2770 yuan / ton, and a few high-end references were 2800-2820 yuan / ton In Taiyuan and Luliang areas of Shanxi Province, the price is 2850-2910 yuan / ton, and in Linfen area, the price is 2910 yuan / ton.

In terms of demand, the main downstream operation rate increased in the second half of the year. In October 2020, China’s automobile production and sales increased by 11.0% and 12.5% year on year respectively. As of October, automobile production and sales have achieved year-on-year growth for seven consecutive months. At the same time, the steady recovery of tire export orders supports the high start-up and high continuity of tire factories. According to Zhuo Chuang’s statistics, the demand for carbon black in tires from June to October 2020 increased by nearly 120000 tons compared with the same period last year, while the output of carbon black enterprises decreased by 47600 tons.

From the perspective of carbon black market capacity, affected by environmental protection, the supply of carbon black production enterprises is tight: the low inventory of carbon black enterprises and the blocked start-up load of the industry lead to the shortage of carbon black supply, which is the main reason for the rise of carbon black price. The second half of 2020 is approaching the end of the 13th five year plan and the battle to defend the blue sky. The air pollution control policy requirements in autumn and winter of 2020-2021 are particularly strict. The areas involved include the main carbon black producing areas: Beijing Tianjin Hebei and its surrounding areas, Fenwei plain, Yangtze River Delta, etc. the enterprises are required to limit production by 20-50%, and the affected production capacity of carbon black industry is nearly 2.8 million tons.

3、 Future forecast

Business society chemical branch carbon black data division that: carbon black market steady growth.