This year (2020), due to the occurrence of global public health events, bulk products will be affected to varying degrees. As a by-product of crude oil, the trend of LPG is not optimistic. In this special year, the LPG market has been abnormal, showing a rise in the off-season and a decline in the peak season, with the “original” changes during the period. By comparing the trend of LPG civil market in recent four years, it can be found that the overall price of LPG is at a low level, and the price has fallen below the historical low price.

2020 is coming to an end. Throughout the year, the overall trend of the haze shrouded LPG civil market is weak, with only a short-term high price at the beginning of the year, and then “going further and further” on the downward road. During the year, there were several obvious rebounds in the market, but failed in the end, and the rising market was fleeting like a flash in the pan. It is worth mentioning that on March 30, LPG futures and options were listed and traded in Dalian Commodity Exchange simultaneously. LPG futures and options are the first gas energy varieties in China’s futures market, and also the first varieties of futures and options launched simultaneously.

The commercial agency selects the representative civil market of Shandong Province for monitoring. According to the trend chart, it can be seen that in 2020, the civil market of liquefied petroleum gas will be “down” in the first half of the year and “stagger forward” in the second half of the year. At the beginning of the year, the average price of civil gas in Shandong was 4583.33 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the year was 3443.33 yuan / ton, with a drop of 24.87% during the year. It can be seen from the figure that in 2020, the highest price of Shandong civil gas market will appear on January 7, with an average price of 4883.33 yuan / ton, and the lowest price on May 26, with an average price of 2660.00 yuan / ton. The maximum earthquake amplitude of the whole year is 45.53%, with great fluctuation in the first half year and frequent fluctuation in the second half year. (as of December 13, 2020, for more data, please pay attention to the subscription service of Business Club)

The first quarter: postpone the start of construction and the “cliff type” decline of liquefied gas market with weak supply and demand

At the beginning of the year (January 1-7), with the launch of CP price explosion in January, supporting the domestic gas price to rise, the market continued the upward trend of the end of 2019, and the price continued to rise. On the 7th, the price rose to the highest point in the year, and then the falling mode was started. Before the Spring Festival, manufacturers’ inventory and inventory demand, in order to stimulate downstream into the market, were forced to continue to yield profits for shipment. Due to the impact of global public health events, although the Spring Festival holiday is over, the terminal market has been delayed to start work, the demand has been significantly reduced, the manufacturers’ shipment has been blocked, and the inventory pressure has been great. The continuous profit sharing has stimulated the downstream market to enter the market, and the price has fallen again and again. On February 10, boosted by the rise of international crude oil, the price rebounded periodically, but the good time was not long, and the terminal demand did not improve significantly. On the 24th, the market fell again. In the later period, with the collapse of crude oil in March, the market continued its downward trend and ended the first quarter with a fall.

In the second quarter, the demand of “stall economy” increased, and the LPG market fluctuated upward

In the second quarter, there was an irrational “big rise and fall” in the market. On April 12, propane in the downstream of liquefied gas surged by 1000 yuan / ton in a single day. As an upstream raw material, liquefied gas prices rose sharply. From April 13 to 15, LPG rose by 15.52% on the 2nd. The rise of propane is due to the indirect drive of polypropylene. Propane, as the main raw material of propylene, indirectly drives up propane under the surge of propylene. But the overall propane market is not as optimistic as it appears. Although propane is the upstream of propylene, the main use of domestic propane is fuel, rather than dehydrogenation to propylene. This rise lacks fundamental support. Then propane unexpectedly ushered in a rational correction, with the propane down, the market lack of support, falling as scheduled. Moreover, the international crude oil fell, the news suppressed the market mentality, the downstream wait-and-see mood increased, the market entry was not positive, manufacturers’ shipment was not smooth, the inventory was gradually increased, and the LPG market was forced to continuously decline. Then, under the influence of the May Day holiday, the market ushered in a small wave of upward trend, but the rising market came and went in a hurry. Due to the sufficient market supply, the price continued to fall after the downstream replenishment. The overall market rose slightly in June. With the development of “stall economy”, snack stalls increased, and the demand for civilian market increased, but the impact of global public health events was still there, and the rise did not continue.

In the third quarter: “rise in the off-season and decline in the peak season”, the LPG market shows a “Λ” trend

Since July, the market continued to push up, the weather was hot, terminal demand was limited, but prices continued to rise in the traditional off-season. The main reason is that the international crude oil rose more and fell less, which brought obvious support to the market, and the domestic gas mainly followed the rise; secondly, CP rose in July and August, which was higher than expected, which brought certain support to the market; in addition, the refinery centralized overhaul in July, and the overall market supply decreased. In the lower reaches of the market, the buyers are active in entering the market, the manufacturers deliver goods smoothly, and the market transaction atmosphere is good. Some of the stocks are in the middle and low level, and the mentality is relatively strong, and the price has continuously risen to a high level. However, in the traditional sales peak season of “Jinjiu”, the market did not go up as expected, but fell continuously. At the end of August, with the introduction of Saudi Aramco CP price, propane remained stable. Although butane rose, the increase was significantly lower than expected, which provided limited market support. In addition, the decline of international crude oil price significantly depressed the LPG market. With the decrease of temperature, the terminal demand is expected to increase, but the current market situation has not changed, terminal consumption is still weak, most of the downstream purchasing capacity is insufficient, the manufacturer’s shipping atmosphere is not good, the market supply changes little, and the output is relatively sufficient, leading to the failure of “Jinjiu”, and the market mainly falls.

In the fourth quarter: “silver ten” began to make efforts to open up liquefied gas market all the way

During the double festival holiday, the market has opened the upward route. After the festival is continued to rise sharply, the rise in South China is the most prominent rise, the market is more sustained. This rise is not unexpected, in the peak season, rising prices are reasonable. Due to this year’s “Jinjiu” did not rise but fell, the price in September has fallen to a relatively low level. In October, international crude oil rose more than fell, bringing strong support to the market. After the festival, the downstream inventory and replenishment demand was more positive, the manufacturers shipped smoothly, and the inventory was mostly at a low level. In terms of market supply, the import gas at the port decreased significantly compared with that in September. In terms of market demand, the weather temperature continued to drop in October, especially in the northern market. The terminal demand increased, and the market showed a periodic imbalance between supply and demand, and the rise continued until mid November. Affected by the fall of international crude oil, the market followed the weakness on November 15. Downstream with the end of the early replenishment, have been delisted to consume inventory, manufacturers to ship blocked, the atmosphere of market transactions than in the early days. After entering December, the market improved again. There were many favorable factors in the market, and the domestic civil gas market continued to rise. At the end of November, the price of Saudi Aramco CP was introduced, and propylene butane rose, which significantly boosted the market, and the price generally stopped falling. In December, the manufacturers in the lower reaches of the market were in a relatively low level, the weather was much better, and the inventory situation in the lower reaches was significantly improved.

LPG import and export statistics from January to October 2020 (unit: ton)

2020

January February March April May June July August September October

Import volume: 259.39 126.52 166.08 201.15 166.55 153.95 191.88 177.98 179.42

The export volume was 12.37 10.77 8.70 6.05 7.01 7.84 8.88 9.74 7.48

LPG production from January to October 2020 (unit: 10000 tons)

2020

January February March April May June July August September October

The yield was 622.2 346.3 377.6 392.9 380.3 387.6 369.7 373.4 386.2

Saudi Aramco CP price trend chart in 2020:

Comparison of upstream and downstream commodity indexes of LPG in 2020

It is only half a month before the end of 2020. In terms of demand, it is currently in winter. Affected by the temperature drop, the market has good rigid demand. In terms of supply, the output of main refineries is relatively stable. Up to now (December 11), the atmosphere of market transaction has become lighter than that of the previous period. Most of the civil gas market has stabilized, but the price is still relatively firm, and some regions still have supplementary operations. Due to the mutual rise and fall of international crude oil, the market support is limited. With the price rising to a relatively high level, the downstream resistance increased and the enthusiasm for entering the market decreased. The shipment situation of manufacturers is general, and the inventory has increased to varying degrees, but the overall situation is still under control. Generally speaking, in the short term, the LPG civil market will not rise sharply or end in 2020 with a strong market. Looking back on 2020, the global public health events have a great impact on LPG, and the annual price is at a low level. The price is a new historical low price, which constantly impacts the mentality of the industry. In the first half of the year, supply and demand were weak. In the second half of the year, with the improvement of the epidemic situation, the market recovery and the arrival of the peak season, the market also improved. Looking forward to 2021, the impact of the epidemic on the market will become weaker, and the LPG market may return to normal level. It is necessary to adjust the band according to the natural law, increase the price in the peak season, and fall in the off-season. The annual trend may show a trend of first suppressing and then rising. The average price is higher than this year, and more attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil and the price of imported gas.

Price trend

Acetic anhydride rose sharply in December, according to the monitoring data of acetic anhydride market. As of December 14, the average price of acetic anhydride was 7600.00 yuan / ton, which was 12.32% higher than that of 6766.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of December (December 1), and 67.96% higher than that of last year.

Acetic acid price trend

It can be seen from the trend chart of acetic acid price that the price of acetic acid rose more than 36% in December. In general, the cost of acetic anhydride rose sharply in December. The driving force for the rise of acetic anhydride increased, and the market of acetic anhydride rose.

Methanol price trend

It can be seen from the methanol price trend chart that the methanol price rose sharply in December. The cost of acetic anhydride rose in December, and the methanol price rose. The acetic anhydride market rose more and more.

Market review and future forecast

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of acetic anhydride data from the business agency, the prices of acetic anhydride raw materials acetic acid and methanol rose sharply in December, and the cost of acetic anhydride rose sharply, and the driving force for the rise of acetic anhydride market was greater. In general, the price of acetic anhydride raw materials has not only skyrocketed, but the market of acetic anhydride has continued to rise.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of December 11, the average price of domestic rubber grade white carbon black was 4733.33 yuan / ton, the market was running smoothly, the downstream just needed to purchase, the price was slightly reduced, the overall supply and demand of the market was balanced, showing a weak operation, the purchasing atmosphere was flat, most of the contract customers were contract customers, the quotation range was maintained between 4000-5000 yuan / ton, the shipment was smooth, and the inventory was adequate.

This week, the domestic rubber grade silica market stable trend, at present, the shipment is smooth, the negotiation atmosphere is general, the demand is not good, the downstream just needs to purchase, the merchants take the goods carefully, the shipment is slow, the current gas phase silica price is about 22000 yuan / ton, the domestic supply and demand of fumed silica is balanced, the shipment is slow, Shandong Shouguang Changtai micro nano factory 5300 yuan / ton, Shandong Lihua new material Material Co., Ltd. 4700 yuan / ton, Boai County Xiangsheng silicon powder Co., Ltd. 4200 yuan / ton.

In the early stage, the supply of hydrochloric acid is mainly stable in the upstream market, and the market is stable and stable.

The chemical index on December 10 was 856 points, up 2 points compared with yesterday, 15.75% lower than 1016 points (2012-03-13), and 43.14% higher than 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

White carbon black analysts believe that: in the short term, the silica market maintains a stable operation situation, and the price fluctuation range is limited. (the above prices are provided by major silica manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by business silica analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of December 8, the average price of domestic power lithium iron phosphate was 36000.00 yuan / ton, the market price was stable, the supply and demand were balanced, the downstream demand was limited, the operating rate remained high, and the market demand was not significantly improved. At present, the price of power type lithium iron phosphate was stable, the market price was mainly stable, and the price change was not obvious.

The price range of lithium iron phosphate power market is 33000-36000 yuan / ton, and the average price is 35000 yuan / ton. The price is stable, the downstream demand has not been significantly improved, and the overall market purchasing atmosphere is general. At present, the power type lithium iron phosphate 34000-36000 yuan / ton, the price is mainly stable, the enterprise starts normal, the merchant ships actively, the logistics is smooth, the transaction price basically maintains the cost online and offline, inventory No pressure, mostly contract customers. In the second half of 2020, with the advent of new cars, the demand for lithium iron phosphate has not been significantly increased. With its safety performance, service life and price advantages, LiFePO4 has a firm foothold in the industry. With the development of society, people have higher requirements for the endurance of electric vehicles, taking into account the cost, safety performance and service life of electric vehicles in the future In the market, the market share of LiFePO4 will be further improved.

The upstream lithium carbonate shows an upward trend in recent years, and the price has increased. At present, the mainstream price range of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 42500-44000 yuan / ton. The focus of the overall market negotiation has shifted upward. Some enterprises have raised their prices, and the quotation remains firm. The purchasing atmosphere has improved. It is expected that there is still room for increase in the short term.

The chemical index on December 9 was 854 points, up 1 point compared with yesterday, 15.94% lower than 1016 points (2012-03-13), and 42.81% higher than 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

Business Club lithium iron phosphate analysts believe: in the short term, lithium iron phosphate Market to stable operation. (the above prices are provided by major lithium iron phosphate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business lithium iron phosphate analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

1、 Price trend

China’s domestic EPS market is stable, with individual price rising. Jiangsu’s common materials are 9500-9700 yuan / ton, and fuel is 9800-10000 yuan / ton. After styrene rises, it falls back, and the transaction volume of EPS market shrinks. The wait-and-see atmosphere of downstream businesses is obvious, and the overall market transaction is weak.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of ex factory: the ex factory price of Zhongshan delta EPS increased, the acceptance delivery price of common materials was 10300 yuan / ton, and the acceptance delivery price of fuel was 10600 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

It is expected that the short-term domestic EPS price will be weak.

International crude oil continued to rise slightly, but the weather turned cold, the demand of asphalt terminal market weakened, and the upward range of domestic asphalt price was limited. According to the price monitoring data of the business agency, the asphalt price was reported at 2362 yuan / ton on December 4, 2.83% higher than that at the beginning of the week.

The United Kingdom announced the start of vaccination of the new crown vaccine, and the progress of the vaccine was good for international oil prices; the OPEC meeting was postponed, and the United Arab Emirates and other countries had different opinions on the postponement and reduction of production. The international crude oil market is intertwined with a small rise in international oil prices this week. WTI crude oil prices rose by 1.60% and Brent crude oil prices rose by 2.95%.

On the whole, the domestic asphalt market demand has steadily declined. In East China and central China, the temperature turns cold, and the terminal asphalt demand weakens; in South China and southwest China, terminal projects are relatively stable, and rigid demand is released steadily; in North China and Shandong, weather warning results in periodic shutdown of the project, and the asphalt demand decreases gradually compared with the previous period; the rigid demand for asphalt in Northeast and Northwest China is basically ended, and the asphalt demand is weak.

Domestic asphalt supply is at a high level, with a cumulative output of 26.95 million tons from January to October, an increase of 13% over the same period of last year.

Business agency analysts believe that the international oil price has risen to a periodic high, and there is insufficient action to continue. In addition, the weather turns cold, and the terminal demand for asphalt is weakening. It is expected that the domestic asphalt price will decline steadily.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, as of December 7, the average price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus was 15650 yuan / ton. Compared with the average price of 16225 yuan / ton in November 30 a week ago, the average price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus was reduced by 575 yuan / ton, with a reduction rate of 3.54%.

2、 Market analysis

At the beginning of December, although the electricity price in December in Yunnan increased by 1-2 points compared with that in November, the increase was not large, which was difficult to support the yellow phosphorus market price. At present, the yellow phosphorus market starts at a high level, and the quotation of yellow phosphorus enterprises in the field has been adjusted. The demand of downstream phosphoric acid market is poor, and the overall market trading atmosphere is general. Up to now, the mainstream price of Yunnan yellow phosphorus is about 15800 yuan / ton. The mainstream quotation in Sichuan is about 15800 yuan / ton. The mainstream price of Guizhou yellow phosphorus is about 15500 yuan / ton. The overall market is light, mainly traders wait and see.

As for phosphate rock, up to now, the quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore car plate is 300-360 yuan / ton, and that of 28% grade phosphate ore is 280-320 yuan / ton. Among them, Xifeng phosphate ore in Guizhou mainly supplies phosphate rock with quality above 30%. At present, the phosphate mine is still in operation, and the price of 30% phosphate ore is 350 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. Guizhou Kaiyang Guanglong mining 30% grade phosphate rock freight plant quoted 320 yuan / ton, the price is stable. In Guangxi, the quotation of 28% phosphate rock pallet is 290-310 yuan / ton, and that of 30% phosphate rock is 330-350 yuan / ton.

In terms of coke, up to now, the mainstream price of Panzhihua coke (secondary metallurgical coke) is 2430 yuan / ton, which is 50 yuan / ton higher than that of the previous trading day, and 100 yuan / ton higher than that of the same period last month. Today, the coke market is relatively strong. The eighth round of increase of 50 yuan / ton is gradually landing. Today, Shandong, Hebei, Shaanxi, Henan and other places are landing, with an accumulated increase of 400 yuan / ton. Under the influence of environmental protection supervision, the operating rate in some areas of Shanxi has dropped to about 40%. In addition, the plan of de capacity in Henan and Hebei is steadily advancing, and the coke supply is slightly tight in the near future.

In terms of demand, the phosphoric acid market has been stable for the time being, with partial downward adjustment. Phosphoric acid market is cautious and wait-and-see, profit margin shipment, individual enterprises cut prices, mainstream prices are still relatively stable. At present, the downstream demand is general, the trading atmosphere is not good, the support force of superimposed cost side is declining, and the overall phosphoric acid market is weak, with downward expectations. Phosphate, phosphorus trichloride and phosphorus pentoxide are in general operation, and the quotation of each enterprise is similar to that in the early stage. The overall market demand for yellow phosphorus is poor.

3、 Future forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analysts of chemical branch of business society, the price of yellow phosphorus market has fallen recently. At present, the yellow phosphorus market starts at a high level, the downstream demand is insufficient, and the overall yellow phosphorus market transaction is light, which is difficult to form a strong support for the market. It is expected that the price center of yellow phosphorus market will be downward in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data from the bulk list of business associations, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium was 1933 yuan / ton on November 1, and 2033 yuan / ton on November 30, with an increase of 5.17% in November.

According to the business club’s large list data, on November 1, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2356 yuan / ton, and on November 30, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2406.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.12%.

2、 Market analysis

The price of monoammonium phosphate increased in November. In Anhui Province, 55% powdered ammonium was quoted at 2050-2100 yuan / T, and the start-up was stable. In Hubei Province, the ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium is about 2050-2100 yuan / ton, and that of 60% powdered ammonium is 2310-2350 yuan / ton. In Henan, the price of ammonium powder is about 2050 yuan, and the price is stable. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong is 2150-2180 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 2000-2100 yuan / T..

The market of diammonium phosphate rose in November. The mainstream ex factory quotation of 64% diammonium in Hubei Province is 2370-2450 yuan / ton, that in Shandong Province is 1820-1830 yuan / ton, and that in Yunnan Guizhou area is 2550-2600 yuan / ton. In Gansu Province, 64% DAP mainstream factory quotation is 2300-2450 yuan / T. The price of 64% diammonium at the first arrival station in Heilongjiang Province is about 2750-2800 yuan / ton.

With the coming of deep winter, the domestic phosphate ore market has entered the year-end off-season time. The downstream demand is insufficient, the shipment is not much, and the mine operating rate is also reduced, most of which are stable prices. Therefore, the phosphorus ore data division of the business society believes that in the short term, the phosphate ore market will continue to maintain stable operation, with limited market volatility.

3、 Future forecast

Ammonium phosphate analysts of business club believe that the market of ammonium phosphate in November is supported by the continuous tight supply of goods, opening up an upward channel. In the first ten days, monoammonium phosphate continued to rise, diammonium phosphate kept stable operation, the market of ammonium phosphate rose collectively in the middle of the year, and the price was still high due to consolidation in the last ten days. At present, most of the ammonium phosphate Market is stable. In the first week of December, monoammonium phosphate rose slightly. The market delivery volume is still small, and the volume of new orders is not high. However, there is no pressure on manufacturers to ship, and the sentiment of price rising is still strong. It is expected that the market will be mainly consolidated at a high level in the short term. Diammonium phosphate has few sources of goods, so it is queuing up for shipment. However, the export volume has declined recently. Traders are cautious and lack of buying gas. It is expected that DAP will run smoothly.

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of December 3, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol including packaging in mainstream areas was 11666 yuan / ton, which was 333 yuan / ton, or 3.55%, compared with November 30 (average price of 11333 yuan / ton); compared with November 1 (average price of 11266 yuan / ton), the average price was increased by 400 yuan / ton, or 3.55%.

Inventory low-level n-propanol “market rises again” at the beginning of the month

In December, the overall inventory of domestic n-propanol market was low, and the factory spot was tight, and the on-site spot stock was basically in the secondary market. At the beginning of the month, some n-propanol holders in Shandong began to increase the ex factory quotation of n-propanol by 300-500 yuan / T. at present, the reference ex factory price of n-propanol bulk water in Shandong is 10800-11000 yuan / ton, including the factory price of 11600-11 800 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of n-propanol bulk water of Shandong fengcang Chemical Co., Ltd. was 10900 yuan / ton, up 500 yuan / ton compared with the end of November. Nanjing: the ex factory price of n-propanol (bulk water) is around 10500-10800 yuan tons. Domestic Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd. (Nanjing Wujiang Chemical Co., Ltd.), n-propanol production unit started normally and normally shipped. The ex factory quotation of n-propanol bulk water was 10500 yuan / T, which was the same as the price at the end of November. As of December 3, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol with packaging in mainstream areas was 11666 yuan / ton, which was 333 yuan / ton, or 3.55%, compared with November 30 (average price of 11333 yuan / ton); compared with November 1 (average price of 11266 yuan / ton), average price of domestic n-propanol increased by 400 yuan / ton, or 3.55%.

In terms of raw materials, in December, the overall external market of ethylene continued to rise. On December 1, in the European ethylene market, FD northwest Europe quoted 857-868 US dollars / ton, up 30 US dollars / ton; CIF northwest Europe quoted 856-867 US dollars / ton, up 37 US dollars / ton. The market demand is good in the near future. For the Asian ethylene market, CFR Northeast Asia quoted 980-990 USD / T, CFR Southeast Asia quoted 905-915 USD / T. In the US ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted us $501-513 / T. recently, the US ethylene market has risen and the demand is fair.

In terms of crude oil, on December 2, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $45.28/barrel, up $0.73. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $48.25/barrel, up $0.83. Oil prices rose on Wednesday as the approval of a vaccine in the UK boosted hopes for a recovery in fuel demand, and the market generally expected OPEC + to continue at the scale specified in the current production reduction agreement.

The demand support is insufficient, and the finishing of n-propanol is mainly stable

On the first two days of the month, although the price of n-propyl alcohol market was generally raised under the guidance of shipholders, the demand for n-propanol was generally low, and the demand was mainly purchased on demand, and the support for n-propanol demand was limited. In addition, the price change of the factory side was not significant. Therefore, the n-propanol datagrapher of the business society believed that in the short term, the n-propanol market was mainly stable and the operation was dominated.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the potassium sulfate market continued to rise in November. At the beginning of the month, the price of 50% granules of Mannheim was about 2625 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was about 2675 yuan / ton, with an increase of about 50 yuan / ton. The arrival price of 52% powder of Xinjiang state investment corporation Luoke is 2740 yuan / ton, and that of Qinghai water salt system is about 2475 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

In November, potassium sulfate swept away the sluggish state of the past six months, and opened the road of slow recovery. Since the resumption of production in September, the price of resource-based products, such as potash, has been raised continuously since September due to the relatively limited production capacity and pre-sale of most of them. However, the operating rate of Qinghai manufacturers has been abnormal, the shortage of water and salt supply, and the price rise, to a certain extent, helped Mannheim potassium sulfate to stabilize the fatigue. The low price purchase of compound fertilizer enterprises has promoted the market of potassium sulfate.

The overall price of Mannheim potassium sulfate generally rose. The operating rate of the industry was relatively high, maintained at about 70-80%, which was still in the high-end. Most manufacturers had no inventory. Generally speaking, there was no great pressure on the potassium sulfate Market for the time being, but the downstream demand was insufficient. In the near future, it was mainly stable, medium and small scale upward. Under the support of the rapid rise of Xinjiang’s potash, the signs of follow-up and supplementary expansion have increased, with the performance of enterprises in the North highlighted. At the same time, the orders of some enterprises have been closed, and the orders of a few enterprises can be extended to the first ten days of December, and the orders of some enterprises can be extended to January next year. In the short and medium term, under the support of production cost, the wait-and-see atmosphere of potassium sulfate enterprises is still strong. In December, we focused on the order supply of potassium sulfate enterprises in Northeast China.

3、 Industrial chain

Upstream: potassium chloride has been continuously rising since September. In October, domestic potassium chloride has entered a state of continuous shortage of shipment. November is the “highlight” period of domestic potassium chloride. At present, the market price of 60% crystal of salt lake is mostly 1950-980 yuan / ton, and the price of imported potassium has also risen sharply this month. Due to the relatively high potassium sulfate supply, potassium chloride failed to follow. Recently, under the condition that the price of potassium chloride has reached a relatively high level and the supply of goods continues to be tight, the price of potassium sulfate has begun to keep falling back.

Downstream: the winter storage market is ready to move, and some enterprises have issued winter storage prices, which have been increased more than before. In the aspect of compound fertilizer, after the autumn market, the simple fertilizer changed its fatigued state, which led the compound fertilizer manufacturers to adjust their prices one after another, opening up the situation of winter storage and high opening.

4、 Future forecast

According to the analysts of the business agency, the cost of potassium sulfate raw materials has a certain support, the market is in consolidation operation, the price is stable in a small range, and the downstream demand shows no obvious rebound. It is expected that the market will be stable in the next month.