Data show that the natural rubber commodity index on September 30 was 34.97, down 0.36 points compared with yesterday, 65.03% lower than 100.00 points (2011-09-01), and 28.19% higher than 27.28 points, the lowest point on April 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
Figure 2: natural rubber mainstream price trend in September 2020
In the first half of September, the mainstream price of domestic Baodao whole milk market was about 11792.5 yuan / ton, and on the 14th was 11551.25 yuan / ton, a half month decline of 2.05%. Among them, the highest point in the first half of the month is 11792 yuan / ton on the first day, and the lowest point is about 11252.5 yuan / ton on the 10th day, and the maximum amplitude is also 4.58%. This half month is a very typical downward trend of shock. The second half of the month: the mainstream price of domestic Baodao whole milk market was about 11645 yuan / ton on the 16th, and 11850 yuan / ton on the 30th, with a half month increase of 1.27%. Among them, the highest point of this month is the 25th day, and the price of 11925 yuan / ton appears in the second half of the month, and the lowest point is 11197.5 yuan / ton on the 9th day. The monthly maximum amplitude is 6.50%. The trend of natural rubber in this month is from the bottom to the first, then from the first half of the month to the first half, and then to the upward trend after the rebound in the second half.
New rubber output: Southeast Asia: the recent Thailand storm has a great impact on rubber output, and the Thai government has made certain compensation for areas seriously damaged by the storm. In 2020, due to the epidemic situation, drought and other factors, the production of raw materials in rubber production areas at home and abroad was slow, and it was inevitable to reduce production; Thailand was also affected by the storm, and the return of workers from Myanmar and Vietnam made Thailand’s rubber output situation more tense; tight raw materials were the main reason for the recent price increase. Thai media reported on September 5 that the price of grade III cigarette adhesive (RSS3) in Thailand exceeded THB 60 / kg in the previous week, a record high in the past three years; the global demand for rubber gloves increased during the epidemic period, resulting in an increase in latex sales; the spot quantity of Thai cigarette adhesive in China’s market continued to decrease and the price was firm. China: at present, there is not much rainfall in China’s domestic area, and tapping work can be carried out normally. However, it is different from the previous index when the market for domestic rubber is not released. Because the price of rubber imported from abroad is low, the dependence on overseas rubber is large. However, as long as domestic rubber is available, traders still actively purchase, although the price is higher.
Import and export: in terms of China’s situation, in August 2020, China’s imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 699000 tons, up 30% year-on-year; from January to August, China’s imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 4.508 million tons, an increase of 8.2% compared with 4.166 million tons in the same period of 2019. Globally, the association of natural rubber producing countries (ANRPC) on September 24 predicted that global rubber consumption would pick up significantly in the third quarter as China actively participated in the natural rubber market. Chinese manufacturing companies are expected to increase their purchases in view of the rebound in economic activity, especially in the automotive sector. ANRPC said in its latest report that China is expected to consume 1.38 million tons, almost equivalent to 1.39 million tons in the same period last year. It expects imports from China to grow by 6.2% in the third quarter. Data show that Vietnam’s exports of mixed rubber to China continued to increase in August.
In the warehouse period of 1905, the inventory of natural rubber will increase by 2430t, and the inventory of natural rubber will increase by 2430t in warehouse period, and the inventory of natural rubber will obviously increase by 2430t in the warehouse period of 1905t and 20t in the warehouse period, and the inventory of natural rubber will decrease by 2530t.
Downstream demand: first of all, the operating rate of downstream enterprises rose on a month on month basis. According to the data, in August, affected by the favorable export, the operating rate of China’s semi steel tire manufacturers was 69.96%, with a month on month increase of 5.77 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 5.78 percentage points, indicating that the overall operating situation of tire manufacturers continued to improve. As of the week ending September 24, the operating rate of domestic semi steel tire manufacturers was 70.84%, up 0.18% month on month and 9.58% year on year; the operating rate of all steel tire manufacturers was 75.12%, up 0.07% month on month and 12.63% year on year. Secondly, the tire sales situation improved moderately. In August, China’s heavy truck market is expected to sell 128000 vehicles of various types, with a month on month decline of 8% and a year-on-year increase of 75%. The prosperity of China’s automobile industry is growing year-on-year, while the month on month is declining, that is, the demand growth of the automobile industry is moderate. According to the tire export data released by the General Administration of Customs on September 24, China’s rubber tire export volume in August was 630000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons on a month on month basis, with a year-on-year increase of 14.1%. In the same month, the export volume of rubber tires was 9.592 billion yuan, up 6.1% year on year. According to a number of data, since the second half of the year, with the epidemic situation curbed, overseas market demand continued to grow, and domestic tire manufacturers’ export orders gradually recovered. Third, tire prices have risen. The price of natural rubber, carbon black, steel cord and other tire raw materials rose several times in the third quarter, and the cost increased. Many tire enterprises raised their prices in line with the trend. The upward trend of tire prices will have a certain role in promoting rubber prices.
Hot spots of this month:
Thailand: in late September, it was reported that Thailand’s export in 2020 entered the final sprint stage of the fourth quarter. Affected by the epidemic situation, the purchasing power of economy, trade and all global markets were declining. In the first seven months of 2020, Thailand’s export growth was negative by 7.7%. This year, all offices confirmed that Thailand’s export growth rate would be negative double-digit. However, novel coronavirus pneumonia related products were well received, but orders for the fourth quarter of this year were increasing, including latex gloves, rubber products and so on. Rattsai, President of Thailand rubber Association, said that rubber raw material orders include concentrated latex for latex gloves, standard rubber and cigarette rubber for tire and other products. Since June, foreign orders have been received, especially from China, Malaysia and Vietnam. Due to the return of Burmese and Cambodian workers, there are not enough workers in Thailand to harvest rubber, resulting in lower production At present, the price of fresh latex is 48 baht / kg, raw rubber sheet is 51 baht / kg, smoked rubber sheet is 58 baht / kg, and the export price of grade 3 smoked rubber sheet is 62 baht / kg. At present, rubber orders have increased greatly. It is estimated that by the end of this year, Thailand will be able to export at least 3.8 million tons of rubber, worth about 180 billion baht. The export value is similar to that in 2019. Due to the decline of rubber production, its export volume is less than 410 tons in 2019.
Us: according to a recent notice in the Federal Register of the United States on September 23, the US Department of commerce must issue a ruling on the “sunset” review of anti-dumping and countervailing duties on passenger car tires from China before October 9. It is understood that this ruling is related to whether the US government will continue to impose high tariffs on Chinese tires. In 2015, the US government imposed 14.4% to 87.9% of anti-dumping duties and 20.7% to 100.8% of countervailing duties on some Chinese passenger car tires. The anti-dumping duty and countervailing duty of tires in China were 30.9% and 87.8%. Since the beginning of tax collection, the United States imported 50.4 million sets of passenger car tires from China in 2015, and only 2.8 million sets in 2019, a sharp drop of 95%. In the first six months of 2020, the United States imported passenger car tires from China again plummeted, only 905400 sets, a year-on-year decrease of 42%. In July 2020, the U.S. Department of Commerce launched an investigation into whether to continue to tax Chinese tires, and October 9 is the final date of the ruling. It is understood that as the initiator of the launch, the United States Federation of steel workers (USW) also believes that although China’s tires have declined a lot, their prices are still above the lowest level of anti-dumping. The US Department of Commerce has ruled that it is more likely to continue taxing Chinese tires. At the same time, the United States has recently launched a double anti investigation on South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam and Taiwan of China. It will be more difficult for Asian tires to enter the U.S. market in the future.
ANRPC: on September 24, the association of natural rubber producing countries (ANRPC) predicted that global rubber consumption would pick up significantly in the third quarter due to China’s active participation in the natural rubber market. Chinese manufacturing companies are expected to increase their purchases in view of the rebound in economic activity, especially in the automotive sector. ANRPC said in its latest report that China is expected to consume 1.38 million tons, almost equivalent to 1.39 million tons in the same period last year. Imports from China are expected to grow by 6.2% in the third quarter. In the first seven months of 2020, the global production of natural rubber decreased by 8.9% year-on-year. According to the preliminary values of various countries up to July 2020 and the expected data for the rest of the year, ANRPC estimates that the global production of natural rubber will decrease by 4.9% to 13.149 million tons in 2020. Fungal disease is another factor hindering the prospects for global natural rubber production. It is understood that the disease has affected about 600000 hectares of mature rubber trees in Indonesia and Thailand, and to some extent affected Malaysia, Sri Lanka and India.
About the aftermarket: business agency analysis shows that the current is in the “golden nine silver ten” traditional consumption peak season, the domestic and foreign new rubber output is slow, the tire enterprise operating rate continues to increase, the tire export volume increases, the natural rubber market presents a variety of “partial” factors; if there is no big negative pressure during the double festival, the market after the National Day is too much, the market generally believes that bargain hunting can be done more appropriately.