Magnesium market trend

On July 14, 2020, the price of magnesium ingot (99.9%, no pickling, simple packaging) in the main production areas of China dropped slightly, and the recent turnover of magnesium market was weak, and the willingness of manufacturers to support the price moved down. At present, the mainstream quotation range is 12800-13100 yuan / ton, and the actual order is mainly discussed

According to the data of the business agency, the average price of the domestic market on the 14th was 13066.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.73% compared with the average price of 13433.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of July (7.1), and 14166.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of July (1.1), a decrease of 7.76%.

The specific price ranges of each region are as follows:

The ex factory spot exchange including tax in fugu district is 12800-13000 yuan / ton; that in Taiyuan area is 12950-13100 yuan / ton; in Wenxi area, it is 13050-13200 yuan / ton; in Ningxia area, it is 12850-13000 yuan / ton.

Poor demand and low price

At the end of June, some enterprises in mainstream production areas were affected by cost factors, and had a strong willingness to raise prices. Since July, the market price of magnesium ingots has been continuously falling, falling below the 13000 mark.

In terms of supply and demand, affected by the poor export factors, the current spot supply is relatively sufficient, and the downstream procurement is relatively rational. Under the expectation of the weak market, more on-demand procurement is given priority to, and the willingness to store goods is low.

The future market is still weak and stable

In terms of exports, overseas demand is not expected to change significantly in the near future. It is reported that in May, China exported 16128.22 tons of unwrought magnesium (mg ≥ 99.8%) with a total amount of US $35.3555 million; compared with April, the export volume decreased by 26.33%, and the export value decreased by 28.4%.

It is expected that the future magnesium price will remain weak and stable, and the later stage will focus on the impact of manufacturers’ shutdown and maintenance on the operating rate in summer.

1、 Price trend

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the domestic PA66 market fluctuated weakly in the first ten days of July, with various models of products up and down. As of July 10, the average price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding mainstream offer was about 18800.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.53% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Analysis of influencing factors:

PA66 upstream adipic acid domestic market continued last month’s weak market, price fluctuations. According to the data of business agency, the spot price of adipic acid in the market has changed little since July, and the mainstream quotation in East China is generally maintained at around 6500-6800 yuan / ton. In terms of cost, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene has been stable recently, and the price of pure benzene in Shandong has rebounded slightly, and the market mentality is slightly poor. At present, it is difficult for the international oil price to rise sharply. It is estimated that the oil distribution price will fluctuate around $40 per barrel in July. In addition, the port inventory of pure benzene is still high, and the large-scale units repaired in the early stage have been restarted, and the market supply pressure will continue to increase in the later period. The load of downstream phenol ketone was reduced due to maintenance, which further reduced the pure benzene. Affected by the pure benzene callback on the cost side, the support of adipic acid price is weakened, which does not rule out that the price of adipic acid will continue to fall. What’s more, there is still no good in the demand side, so it is not ruled out that the adipic acid price may continue to explore lower.

The upstream adipic acid generally supports the cost side of PA66. Last month, the price of PA66 market rose due to the decrease of spot stock in the market, and the long overdue market price of PA66 market turned warm. In July, the tight spot market situation has improved, but the floor supply is still relatively small. Recently, it is said that in the production stoppage of Liaoyang Xingjia, the operating rate of Shenma industry is about 80%, half of Huafeng Group’s units are shut down, and half of Dandong Youxian technology’s units are shut down. Although some offers have recovered, the resistance to shipment is still there, and the actual transaction is still relatively small. Downstream factories are more resistant to high price goods, and the improvement degree of transaction is limited.

Future forecast:

Business agency analysts believe that: in early July, domestic PA66 market was adjusted in a narrow range. The spot price of adipic acid in the upstream runs smoothly at a low level, which cannot support the cost of PA66. The lower reaches have some resistance to high price goods, the domestic market supply is tight and the actual trading is insufficient. Both of them have limited improvement. It is expected that the PA66 market will continue to run smoothly in the short term.

The domestic butadiene market rose slightly. According to the price monitored by the business agency, the domestic butadiene market price was 3473 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 3495 yuan / ton at the weekend, with an increase of 0.64% during the week. The price was 8.04% lower than that of the same period last month and 58.67% lower than that of the same period last year.

This week, the domestic butadiene market rose slightly, and there was a certain demand in the downstream. In addition, the online export of North China brocade was suspended during the cycle, and a small number of high turnover sources of goods boosted the atmosphere of the spot market, and speculation went up. With the rising market in northern China and the news that Shandong Huayu polybutadiene rubber plant is expected to restart, businesses in East China are reluctant to sell at low prices and offer high prices. During the cycle, northern suppliers’ prices rose, and in the middle of the week, it was heard that some European goods were traded in China and South Korea at slightly higher prices, which supported the firm domestic spot offer. Under the support of short-term supplier and external information, it is difficult to find low-cost goods in the market, but high-end prices in the market are waiting for downstream inquiry to follow up, so it is difficult to make large-scale transactions.

In terms of enterprises, Sinopec East China butadiene supply price is stable at 3600 yuan / T; Liaotong chemical’s 120000 T / a butadiene extraction unit shut down for minor inspection on July 8, and it is estimated that the restart time will be at the end of this week, and the period will be temporarily wireless for export; Tianjin Zhongsha 200000 t / a butadiene unit will be shut down for maintenance on May 9, and the upstream unit will be restarted on July 9, which is expected to be produced by butadiene products by the end of this week A small amount of coal butadiene was exported, and the price was 2960 yuan / ton as of July 9, up 350 yuan / ton month on month; Dalian Hengli butadiene was sold normally, the price was 3470 yuan / ton as of July 9, and increased by 160 yuan / ton compared with the previous period; the butadiene plant with 70000 tons / year in Jiutai, Inner Mongolia, operated at low load, the listing price was increased by 250 yuan / ton to 3650 yuan / ton as of July 9.

Industrial chain: styrene butadiene rubber: this week, the mainstream ex factory prices of domestic emulsion polymerized styrene butadiene rubber sales companies were adjusted, among which the mainstream styrene butadiene rubber price dropped by 200 yuan / ton, and the oil rubber price was stable.

CIS polybutadiene rubber: this week, the mainstream ex factory supply price of high CIS polybutadiene rubber in China remained around 8400 yuan / ton, with some large regions rising by 200 yuan / ton in other regions.

In the short-term, the main downstream start-up of butadiene is high, and the demand will bring certain support to the butadiene market. This week, the market situation has pushed up, and the supplier’s price performance is strong. Under the condition of no obvious short-term inventory pressure, the manufacturer’s intention to reduce the quotation is not strong, and the supplier’s price still supports the market. However, at present, the domestic spot supply is relatively abundant and some units in the north will recover next week. Under the influence of high market price and difficulty in large-scale transaction, the supply and demand fundamentals of butadiene are favorable and the boost is limited. The butadiene analysts of the business society predicted that under the guidance of the supplier, the market offer may remain relatively firm, but the transaction follow-up situation is still worthy of attention; the pressure on the market to continue to rise is obvious, and it is suggested to pay close attention to whether the mainstream supplier price policy can bring sustained boost to the market.

From July 6 to 10, 2020, the crude benzene market will rise back to the level at the beginning of the month. The factory price in North China will be 2346.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 2531.67 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a weekly increase of 7.88%.

This week, the price of pure benzene market remained stable as of the end of the 10th day. Sinopec implemented 3100 yuan / t spot exchange and Sinopec Huabei implemented 3050 yuan / T, which were flat compared with last week. In terms of pure benzene social inventory, this week continued to rise to nearly 240000 tons, with more vessels in Hong Kong, and it is expected that the inventory will still rise next week. The operation of pure benzene unit was flat compared with last week, and the spot market was under pressure. In terms of external market of pure benzene: the external market of pure benzene in Asia rose slightly this week, FOB Korea increased by 3 USD / T compared with last week, and CFR China increased by 11 USD / T compared with last week. Fundamentals are good for the crude benzol Market. This week, the bidding price has been greatly increased and returned to the level at the beginning of this month, and the markets around the country have followed.

In terms of downstream demand, affected by the cost pressure, the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises decreased slightly this week, about 5% lower than last week, and the overall operating rate was still low, which slightly contradicted the high price of crude benzene. As of Friday, the price of crude benzene for processing in Shandong was stable, with a range of 2535 yuan / ton, up 185 yuan / ton compared with last week.

In the aftermarket, the business agency believes that crude oil price fluctuates slightly and the pure benzene market has a certain positive effect, but the market wait-and-see sentiment is strong, the pure benzene inventory is high, and the downstream hydrobenzene enterprises’ cost pressure is high, which is difficult to support the crude benzene price to continue to go up. It is expected that the crude benzene market will be mainly sorted out in the near future.

1、 Acrylic acid price trend

(Figure: P value curve of acrylic acid products)

2、 Market analysis

Recently (7.1-7.7) the market of acrylic acid is mainly stable, and the prices of some enterprises have increased slightly. According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, as of July 7, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 7733.33 yuan / ton, which was 0.43% higher than that on July 1 (7700 yuan / ton), and 24.06% higher than that on July 1.

At the beginning of July, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China was 7700 yuan / ton. The price of raw material propylene was high, the cost was under pressure, and the low-end price of the market went up. On the 2nd, the market of acrylic acid was mainly stable, and some enterprises raised their prices. The price rose to 7733.33 yuan / ton and remained stable. At present, the price of raw material propylene is going up, the cost support is strengthened, the spot supply in the market is sufficient, the downstream start-up is relatively stable, the procurement on demand is the main factor, and the market of acrylic acid is stable.

Statistics of weekly operating rate change of acrylic acid enterprises:

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of acrylic acid of some enterprises in recent years (for reference only, the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated)

On July 7, the market price of propylene in Shandong continued to rise. According to the price chart of the business agency, the recent price of propylene fluctuates periodically, with a relatively stable price range. At the end of June, the price has been at a high level, stable at the beginning of the month, and then decreased continuously. After going down 200-250 yuan / ton, the price on the sixth day was adjusted back to about 100 yuan / ton. Today, it continues to rise by 50 yuan / ton. The market transaction is between 6720 and 7000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6750 yuan / ton. The inventory pressure of propylene manufacturers has improved, the crude oil price has slightly increased, the overall downstream market operating rate is ideal, the polypropylene futures market is good, and the purchasing enthusiasm is improved. It is expected that the propylene price will continue to rise slightly in the near future, which is good support for acrylic acid.

3、 Future forecast

Acrylic acid analysts of the business community believe that at present, the price of raw material propylene is high, the cost is under pressure, the spot supply is sufficient, and downstream procurement is on demand. It is expected that the market of acrylic acid will be strong in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the change of raw material price.

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, affected by the tight spot supply in the market, the domestic acetic acid market continued to rise. As of July 7, the average price of acetic acid in East China was about 2483 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.43% compared with 2333 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 10.86% higher than the same period of last month. At present, there are 2450-2550 yuan / ton in Shandong, 2450-2550 yuan / ton in Jiangsu, 2550-2650 yuan / ton in Zhejiang, 2200-2300 yuan / ton in Henan, 2400-2450 yuan / ton in Hebei and 2050 yuan / ton in Northwest China.

Unit capacity (10000 t / a) unit output (T / D)

Yankuang Guotai 110.3000

Hualu Hengsheng 50.1500

Yangtze BP 50 1000

Celanese 120 6.17 Park

Jiangsu Sopu 120 7.2 parking

Jiantao, Hebei, 50.1400

Tianjin Bohua 35.1000

Henan Shunda 40.1400

Henan Longyu 50.1500

Henan Yima 25 parking

Shaanxi Yanchang 30.800

Shanghai Huayi 70 7.6 parking

Anhui Huayi 50.1300

Dalian Hengli 35.1100

At present, most domestic acetic acid enterprises mainly focus on delivery contracts, and the inventory of enterprises is reduced to a low level. In addition, the shutdown of large acetic acid plants in Jiangsu province leads to the shortage of spot supply in the market. In addition, the downstream market just needs to be stable, which is good for the market price support. The start-up of enterprises in North China and central China is stable. Due to the warm market transaction atmosphere and tight enterprise shipment, some enterprises are closed. The rise in South China is driven by the rise of other regions, but the demand in the downstream market is still weak.

In terms of the upstream market, the methanol market is in shock and adjustment. There are many maintenance enterprises in Northwest China, and they have a slight upward intention. However, the demand in the downstream market is weak and the mentality of the operators is not good. At present, it is about 1627 yuan / ton. On the downstream side, downstream industries such as vinyl acetate and acetate maintain rigid demand, and the overall operating rate is flat. Affected by the rising acetic acid of raw materials, the price remains firm, but in the long run, the demand side does not support the price of acetic acid.

In terms of the international market, the overall supply of acetic acid in Asia has declined. Due to the influence of international relations, the limited import of acetic acid in South Asia has led to the diversion of some goods to the surrounding markets, with the current quotation of about 280-320 US dollars / ton; the overall supply in the European market is stable, and the price is falling due to the sluggish demand for methanol and PTA, with the current price of 540 euro / T; the North American market is affected by the bullish demand for methanol and PTA, so the price is going At present, it is about 455 US dollars / ton.

The acetic acid analysts of the business club believe that the recent shutdown and maintenance of Jiangsu Sopu and Shanghai Huayi devices has intensified the market supply tension. Therefore, the East China region has continued to rise, driving the surrounding market upward. However, the downstream market purchasing is still mainly on the demand, and the purchasing is rational. It is expected that the spot supply will still be tight in a short time. Pay attention to the enterprise maintenance recovery.

June propane (Shandong) market twists and turns, the overall trend is up – down – up. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane market was 2975.00 yuan / ton on June 1, and 2927.50 yuan / ton on June 30, with a decrease of 1.60% and the maximum earthquake amplitude of 7.06%.

Regional specification enterprises rose and fell from June 1 to June 30

Shandong propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 HSBC Petrochemical 3050 yuan / ton 2980 yuan / ton – 70 yuan

Shandong propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 Hualian Petrochemical 2950 yuan / ton 2880 yuan / ton – 70 yuan

Shandong propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 Hengyuan Petrochemical 3100 yuan / ton 3000 yuan / ton – 100 yuan

Shandong propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 Haiyou petrochemical – 2850 yuan / ton-

Shandong propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 Binzhou Dayou 3000 yuan / ton 2880 yuan / ton – 120 yuan

At the beginning of June (1-7), the propane market was very happy. Prices ended the downturn, and finally ushered in a substantial rise. On May 31, the average price of propane was 2850.00 yuan / ton, and on June 1, the average price was 2975.00 yuan / ton, with a single day increase of 4.39%. On June 2, there were individual supplementary operations. The rise of international oil price has boosted the bullish confidence of downstream industries. In addition, with the introduction of CP in June, the price of propane increased by US $10 / T compared with that of last month, bringing a certain boost to the market. With the downstream buying up mentality, the enthusiasm for entering the market increased, the manufacturers delivered goods smoothly, the market transaction atmosphere improved, and the price rose.

Then, from June 7 to 17, the market opened a downward channel. During this period, the broad decline of international crude oil and import costs affected the market mentality. With the completion of replenishment, downstream companies have withdrawn from the market to consume inventory. At present, they are in the traditional off-season demand season, the terminal demand is reduced, the downstream replenishment cycle is lengthened, and the market transaction atmosphere is obviously weakened. Upstream interest to stimulate shipment, prices ushered in a sharp fall. As the price fell to a relatively low level, some downstream bargains entered the market, the upstream shipment situation improved to some extent, the inventory was released, and the price was slightly increased under the strong mentality, and the propane market rebounded. However, the current terminal demand did not significantly improve, and the propane market rebound was hindered, and fell again on June 21.

From June 22 to 27, the Dragon Boat Festival holiday was reduced, and the market was dominated by horizontal consolidation. Until the end of the month (28th), Shandong propane market again ushered in a rise. After the holiday, the demand for downstream storage and replenishment after the holiday is good. The overall market transaction atmosphere is OK. The manufacturers’ inventory is running at a low level. In addition, the price of civil gas rises. The market price in Shandong rises by 30-70 yuan / ton per day. On the 30th, crude oil pushed up in the morning, which brought good news to the market again. At present, the expected high price of CP in July has significantly boosted the market mentality. The Shandong market continued to rise, ranging from 20-80 yuan / ton.

Saudi Aramco CP announced in July that both propane and butane rose slightly, propane increased by $10 / T, and butane increased by $10 / T, bringing obvious benefits to the market.

The main reason for the downward shift of propane Market Center in June is that due to seasonal factors, the current high temperature and limited terminal demand significantly restrain the price upward. At present, the supply of port goods is relatively sufficient, but it is still moderate compared with the previous period. After the introduction of Saudi Aramco’s CP price in July, the propylene butane increased by US $10 / T, which brought certain benefits to the market. However, the traditional off-season in July did not end, and terminal demand still kept the price down. It is expected to rise in July or narrow shocks.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the trend of domestic PP market in June was narrow and strong, with different brands of materials up and down. As of June 30, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders was about 7850.00 yuan / ton, which was 2.61% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of propylene upstream of polypropylene, according to the data from the bulk list of business associations, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price experienced two and a half rounds of ups and downs in June, with 6643 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, 6845 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 3.04%; the monthly high price appeared on June 4, at 6906 yuan / ton, and the monthly low price appeared on June 13, 6498 yuan / ton, with a monthly amplitude of 5.91%. At present, the market turnover is between 6750 and 7050 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6850 yuan / ton. At present, the pressure of propylene manufacturers to ship is small, there are many sets of devices to transmit maintenance information. Generally speaking, although the international crude oil market price has been slightly lowered recently, the future market is still ideal, which has a certain positive effect on propylene. Downstream prices have been up and down, but the operating rate is ideal, trading is more active, and manufacturers’ inventory pressure is small. Therefore, it is expected that the propylene price may still rise in recent days.

 
Upstream propylene trend in June strong shock, PP (drawing) market in this month is relatively mild, but the market direction is still strong performance. According to the data monitored by the business agency, the lowest point in June appeared at 7650.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and the highest point appeared at 7850.00 yuan / ton on June 18. The monthly increase and amplitude were both 2.61%. The index showed that the domestic spot price of PP (wire drawing) fluctuated upward. On the supply side, there are still a number of devices have not been restarted, powder operating rate has also dropped. On the macro level, the overall market is helped by the demand, but at present, the downstream stock preparation tends to slow down, and the speed of market stock reduction is affected. On site petrochemical plant supports the quotation. In addition, the overall production of cracking units in Asia increased significantly this month, which is expected to suppress the price of propylene.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of June 30, the mainstream offer price of domestic manufacturers and traders Z30S (fiber) was about 7816.67 yuan / ton. 89% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month. At present, the domestic PP (fiber) price market is in line with PP (drawing) pace, the lowest point is 7750 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and fluctuates after rising. After the over production of PP fiber material caused by speculation in April and the rapid cooling of market atmosphere in May, it can be said that the hidden inventory caused by overproduction has been digested in this month. The “debt repayment” market of PP (fiber) material with “revenge” type has become the past. The market in June objectively reflects the law of supply and demand prices. However, at the end of the month, following the performance of PP (drawing) market, some merchants had poor shipment and insufficient follow-up of downstream stock purchase. At present, the market lacks the guidance of new good news, and the disk stalls.

The market of PP melt blown material is not satisfactory. At present, the price of domestic PP (melt blown) material has dropped greatly. According to the price of business agency, as of June 30, the average quoted price of melt blown PP for melt index 1500 was 19333.33 yuan / ton. Compared with the previous two months, the stock of meltblown materials “fell to the altar” in June, falling below 20000 yuan per ton. There are signs of rebound in recent public health events in China, and the international side has continued to deepen development. The increase in demand has not brought sufficient benefits to the domestic market. A large number of enterprises began to pour into the production line of meltblown fabrics and materials after 1997, but now it is difficult to produce N95 grade materials. The stock in the market is not small. Some substandard products can only be sold at low prices or converted to diapers and other products. In the early stage of the industry boom, the products lacked standards and profiteering, and the export regulations of high quality shielded some small and medium-sized enterprises with general technical ability, which showed that the health of the industry was worrying. The craziness of the industry has attracted the attention of the government, and the production of meltblown cloth in many places across the country is facing rectification. Domestic public health events are generally stable, and the demand for epidemic prevention materials is falling rapidly, which leads to the periodic oversupply. For example, most of the prices of epidemic prevention related products have fallen recently. Isopropanol, as one of the raw materials of disinfectant, has dropped in the last ten days of this month, reflecting the dispersion of demand for epidemic prevention materials. The explosive increase of participants in the production of PP meltblown materials has led to the uneven quality of PP meltblown materials and the “diving” in price.

Future forecast

Business agency PP analysts believe: June domestic PP spot market is stronger finishing. Upstream propylene market high consolidation, strong support for PP. PP (drawing) is mainly operated with high price, and PP (fiber) is also strong and strong finishing. PP (melt blown) demand weakened, prices fell sharply. At present, the reduction of the petrochemical plant’s stock is slowing down, and the petrochemical plant’s offer is intended to support the price. PP was generally helped by the recovery of demand, and the tight supply situation improved at the end of the month. The operating rate of downstream factories is average, and the stock order can be purchased as soon as it is used, which conflicts with high price goods. Business mentality temporarily stable, actual trading general. PP market is expected to weaken, it is suggested to pay attention to the further trend of supply and demand.

The domestic market of cyclohexanone rose first and then fell, and rose generally. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone producers at the beginning of the month was 5980 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic cyclohexanone producers was 6125 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an increase of 2.42%. The highest price was 6857 yuan / ton on June 13, with the maximum amplitude of 10.16% in the month. The price fell by 23.12% compared with the same period last year.

In June, cyclohexanone market rose first and then fell. In the first half of the month, the market of cyclohexanone rose steadily. The Shandong factory rose to 6800 yuan / T in the middle of the month. The main reason was that the spot supply of caprolactam was tight, the price continued to push up, and the centralized extraction of cyclohexanone. In addition, Sinopec raised the listing price of pure benzene for many times, and the spot price in East China market rose, forming a good support for cyclohexanone. In the second half of the month, with the conflict between the polymerization plant and the high price caprolactam, the supply of caprolactam was eased, and the quantity of cyclohexanone purchased from abroad was also greatly reduced. The shipment of cyclohexanone factory was blocked, the inventory pressure was increasing, and the supply exceeded the demand. The pessimistic atmosphere in the field was aggravated, and the price kept falling.

In terms of raw materials, pure benzene: the price of pure benzene in East China rose first and then fell. In the first half of this month, the price rose due to the rise of crude oil. In the second half of the month, the pressure of port delivery appeared, which suppressed the softening of spot price.

Caprolactam: the caprolactam market rose first and then fell in June, with a slight increase as a whole. In the first half of the month, caprolactam cost and supply side support were sufficient. At the end of the month, the pressure on the demand side was gradually transmitted to caprolactam. The inventory of terminal grey fabric increased to around 50 days, and the inventory of spinning link increased to more than 30 days. The pressure of polymerization inventory also began to increase, and the pressure of caprolactam demand appeared.

Adipic acid: the domestic adipic acid market showed a trend of rising in the first half of this month and falling in the second half of this month. With no obvious change in demand, it mainly follows the fluctuation of raw material pure benzene.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, in June 2020, there were 40 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector, of which 18 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 20% of the total number of commodities monitored in this plate; the top three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (32.19%), ethylene (24.98%) and sulfur (24.05%). There were 43 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 17.8% of the total number of monitored commodities in the sector; the top three products were butadiene (- 16.51%), chloroform (- 13.04%) and acetic anhydride (- 12.50%). This month, the average rise and fall was 0.97%.

On the cost side, as it is expected that the pure benzene will be difficult to be removed from the warehouse in July, the port pressure will continue to exist, and the industry believes that there is still room for the price of pure benzene to decline. From the supply side, Fengxi plant of Yangquan coal company is planned to restart in July, and a small amount of Hongda in Shandong Province is exported. Although Jiangsu Haili has a plan to restart cyclohexanone, it is uncertain whether there will be external sales. All units are in normal operation, and the spot supply is expected to increase. From the perspective of demand, the price of phenol is still higher than that of cyclohexanone, and the preparation of cyclohexanone from phenol still has no advantage, and it is expected that there is still demand for cyclohexanone, The end market demand has not improved significantly, caprolactam spot pressure may further increase, and the overall output is not optimistic. On the whole, supply may exceed demand in July. Cyclohexanone analysts from the business community predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market will be weak and pay attention to the external procurement of chemical fiber market.

In June 2020, the domestic BDO market continued to decline, the market center of gravity continued to move down, and the settlement price announced at the end of the month fell to the lowest point in the year. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the BDO price at the beginning of the month was 8280 yuan / ton, while that at the end of the month was 7940 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.11% within the month. The price fell by 13.70% compared with the same period last year.

This month, the domestic BDO market price fell to the year’s low, and the operation of deadlock. In the first ten days of June, affected by the sharp increase of raw material calcium carbide, most factories were in a state of loss, and the intention to yield profits was not strong. However, the support at the demand side is weak. In addition to the TPU start-up, the demand of the main PTMEG factory Xiaoxing is to be restored after the maintenance, and the other downstream areas have no obvious fluctuation, and they are still starting with low load. Manufacturers actively let profits and clear the Treasury, and the focus continued to be weak, down to the year’s low point. In the middle of the year, the operating rate dropped to less than 30% for the first time with the maintenance of Meike, Cathay Pacific, Shaanxi chemical, Panjin Dalian and Kaixiang. The inventory of some factories was controllable, and the supply side was good slowly. The mentality of the supply and demand side has changed, and the market has stopped falling and stabilized. In the late ten days, the market operating rate dropped to a historical low and the inventory atmosphere improved before the Dragon Boat Festival. The suppliers supported the market, and the offer was stable and slightly higher. The domestic BDO market bottomed out and rebounded, but the range was not large. There was no obvious increase in demand, the contract negotiation was the main task, and the acceptance of small orders was acceptable. The price of large orders continued to be depressed, and the market was stagnant.

In terms of devices, the restart time of Dongyuan, Ronghe and Xinye has not been determined; one set of device in Kaixiang, Henan is in operation, and the other is not determined; two sets of great wall units of Sinopec Ningxia are in operation; Shaanxi Shaanxi Shaanxi Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. has a load of 70%; Shaanxi black cat will be shut down for maintenance on June 25, with an estimated 20 days; Tianye phase I will be shut down for maintenance on May 18, and the restart time of phase II and III units is not available Panjin Dalian will be overhauled from June 10 to the end of the month; Cathay Pacific will be shut down for maintenance on June 10 for 15 days; Meike will be shut down for maintenance from June 3 to June 30; Hecheng coal company plans to restart in July with unknown time.

Raw materials: methanol: Northwest methanol market overall showed a low volatility trend this month. In the first ten days of the month, the stock price of upstream factories was stable, some traders and downstream bargains entered the market, and the transaction of new orders was relatively smooth; in the middle of January, the 600000 ton unit of Xin’ao phase I was temporarily overhauled, and Ningmei maintained a high level of methanol extraction, and the regional quotations were pushed slightly; in the last ten days of the month, the overall atmosphere weakened and the mainstream prices declined, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia maintained a low level of shock, and the atmosphere was general.

Calcium carbide: the keynote of domestic calcium carbide market has been lowered this month, the overall supply capacity of the market has been enhanced, and regional maintenance has been completed. In the first ten days of June, the calcium carbide Market as a whole entered the inventory replenishment stage. The upstream supply was sufficient, and the downstream arrival was significantly improved. With the callback of calcium carbide price in the market, the enthusiasm of various production enterprises to start work was continuously improved, the calcium carbide devices that had been stopped in the early stage also continued to resume production, the opening rate of PVA market was reduced, and the PVC aspect entered the maintenance period, so the demand was weakened.

Downstream, this month, domestic spandex PTMEG market light operation. This month, the market of PTMEG in non spandex field was weak. The PBT market rose slightly this month. This month, the domestic PU slurry market is weak.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, in June 2020, there were 40 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector, of which 18 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 20% of the total number of commodities monitored in this plate; the top three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (32.19%), ethylene (24.98%) and sulfur (24.05%). There were 43 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 17.8% of the total number of monitored commodities in the sector; the top three products were butadiene (- 16.51%), chloroform (- 13.04%) and acetic anhydride (- 12.50%). This month, the average rise and fall was 0.97%.

In the future, the raw material calcium carbide continued to decline, and the support at the cost side was weakened; in terms of supply, Meike and Hechun coal storage were expected to restart, and some major factories were still in shutdown, and the supply might increase slightly. The demand side mainly digests the early stage inventory, enters the market to replenish the warehouse on demand, and conflicts with the high price. In view of the current inventory under control, manufacturers are willing to support the market, and the offer is more stable. Long and short hedging, the game between supply and demand continues. BDO analysts of business agency predict that the domestic BDO market will mainly run smoothly in July, and the possibility of upward trend is not ruled out. They will pay attention to the start-up of devices and the change of downstream demand.