1、 Price trend

According to the commodity data monitoring, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus is relatively stable. The average price of yellow phosphorus this week is 24666.67 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

The price of yellow phosphorus was relatively stable this week. Many manufacturers closed their offers without reporting, mainly for early orders. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 24000-24500 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Sichuan is about 25000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Guizhou is about 24000 yuan / ton. This week, the downstream enterprises of yellow phosphorus purchased more actively, the spot on the site was tight, many manufacturers closed their offers without reporting, the market confidence was good, and the bullish expectation of yellow phosphorus was strong.

In terms of raw materials, the transaction price of phosphorus ore market is constantly approaching the high end. Up to now, according to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the reference average price in the mainstream areas of 30% grade phosphorus ore in China is around 563 yuan / ton, and the market price has also risen to the high point. Under the high price, the downstream demand may be weak. Therefore, the phosphorus ore analysts of business society believe that in the short term, the probability of continued rise in China’s phosphorus ore market is small, and most of them will operate stably and firmly at the high level.

In terms of coke, the coke market in Shandong and Hong Kong is relatively strong today. At present, the mainstream spot exchange delivery price of quasi primary metallurgical coke in the port area is about 3150 yuan / ton, and the price of primary coke is 3250 yuan / ton, which is flat compared with the previous day. The inventory in the two ports continues to be low, the market sentiment in Hong Kong is low, and the overall trading is relatively cold. Recently, the raw coal price has remained high, and the cost pressure of coking enterprises has increased. Since August 20, many enterprises in main production areas such as Shandong, Hebei and Shanxi have opened the fifth round of raising 120 yuan / ton. As of August 19, the market price of Panzhihua coke (secondary metallurgical coke) was 3190 yuan / ton.

The price of phosphoric acid rose steadily this week. The average price of phosphoric acid last Thursday was 6816.67 yuan / ton, and that of phosphoric acid this Thursday was 7025 yuan / ton. The price increased by 3.06% during the week. Recently, yellow phosphorus has been consolidated at a high level, the phosphoric acid market has been watching carefully, the trading volume is good, and the actual transaction is mainly through negotiation.

3、 Future forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of business society believes that the yellow phosphorus market price is relatively stable this week, the trading atmosphere on the floor is good, and the supply of goods is tight. The price of phosphate rock in the upstream increased and the price of phosphoric acid in the downstream increased. On the whole, the market confidence is good and the upstream and downstream support is strong. It is expected that the market price of yellow phosphorus is expected to rise in the short term.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of August 13, the average price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises was 110333.33 yuan / ton, up 8.17% compared with Monday, 22.59% compared with July 13, and 27.80% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

This week, the domestic market price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide increased again. Recently, the upstream spodumene goods are tight, the price is rising, the cost pressure is upward, the supply side is still tight, the downstream demand is still good, the market inquiry atmosphere is positive, the enterprise’s offer is high, and it is difficult to find low-cost goods. Recently, the external quotation of Shanghai Yulun industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 118000 yuan / ton, and the external quotation of Zigong tongfarong industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 101000 yuan / ton. The specific transaction price is discussed separately.

Upstream lithium carbonate, according to the data monitoring of business society: the price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to rise at the beginning of the month this week. As of August 12, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 95800 yuan / ton, up 3.46% compared with the price on Monday (August 9). On August 12, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 99000 yuan / ton, up 3.34% compared with the price on Monday (August 9).

The lithium hydroxide analyst of business society believes that, on the whole, the current cost support is strong, and the superimposed supply and demand performance is good. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market may be strong, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the guidance of market news.

On August 17, the mainstream quotation range of 1# tin ingots in the domestic spot tin market was 244500-246500 yuan / ton, with an average price of 245500 yuan / ton, an increase of 4500 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.

Last night, the London metal market fell more or rose less. Due to the weaker than expected economic data released by China, market sentiment was dragged down. Last night, except tin and aluminum, other metals mainly fell. Among them, Lunxi rose 0.78%, and Shanghai tin led the domestic night market by 1.19%. The data released by LME on Monday showed that Lunxi’s inventory had dropped to 1710 tons. The data of the previous period showed that Shanghai Tin’s inventory fell for two weeks, breaking the lowest level since 2017.

At present, the tin price in the spot market is still at a high level, the fear of heights in the downstream is still heavy, the market trading is light, and the market entry is mainly just in need of procurement. Today, the price rose, the enthusiasm for entering the market in the downstream decreased, and the intention to receive goods was low. A few days ago, there was a small amount of demand for replenishment. Today, the market has a strong wait-and-see mentality. The decline of inventory data supported the rise of tin price.

In the future, the business society believes that under the current tight supply situation in the short term, the tin price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term.

Trade name: calcium carbide

Latest price (August 16): 5200.00 yuan / ton

On August 16, the factory quotation of calcium carbide in Northwest China increased by 66.67 yuan / ton, or 1.30%, and 92.12% year-on-year compared with the quotation on August 13. The price of raw material blue carbon rose slightly, and the cost of calcium carbide supported well. The downstream PVC market has risen slightly recently, and the downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement has increased. At the same time, the start of a new round of power rationing in Inner Mongolia is the main reason for the rise in calcium carbide prices.

In the future, it is expected that the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may rise slightly: the average price quoted by manufacturers is about 5250 yuan / ton.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA spot market rebounded slightly this week (August 9-13). As of August 13, the average market price was 5330 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.29% and a year-on-year increase of 46.58%.

Recent changes of domestic PTA units

Enterprise name Maintenance scale (10000 t / a) Maintenance start time

Helen Petrochemical 1# one hundred and twenty It is estimated to restart at the end of August

Helen Petrochemical 2# one hundred and twenty Parking on July 30 for about 2 weeks

Fuhaichuang four hundred and fifty It was overhauled on July 27, heated up on August 4 and discharged on August 6

Yisheng new materials three hundred and thirty It was stopped on July 30 and is still under commissioning

Honggang petrochemical one hundred and fifty The load will be reduced by 50% around July 26, which is expected to last for one month

Zhongtai petrochemical one hundred and twenty Shutdown on August 5, restart date to be determined

Ningbo Taihua one hundred and twenty The car stopped unexpectedly on the evening of August 12, and it is planned to restart on August 13

In terms of supply, at present, the operating rate of the industry is around 74%. In terms of specific units, the 1.2 million T / a installation of Sinopec Thailand Petrochemical will be shut down on August 5, and the restart date will be determined; Helen Petrochemical’s 1.2 million T / a PTA unit was shut down for technical transformation around June 7, and it is estimated to restart at the end of August. Another 1.2 million T / a unit was shut down for about 2 weeks on July 30; Honggang Petrochemical 150 will reduce the load by 50% on July 26, 2021, and it is estimated to maintain it for about one month; Ningbo Taihua’s 1.2 million T / a unit was shut down unexpectedly on the evening of August 12, and it is planned to restart on August 13. The restart of the 3.3 million ton PTA plant of Yisheng new material was not smooth, and PTA was still in the de inventory state this week.

Due to the improvement of U.S. employment data and fuel demand, the international oil price rebounded slightly this week. As of August 12, the settlement price of main contracts in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market was $69.09/barrel, with a weekly increase of 1.19%, and the settlement price of main contracts in Brent crude oil futures market was $71.31/barrel, with a weekly increase of 0.86%. In terms of PX, Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 2.5 million tons of new PX capacity has produced qualified products, but the load is not high, and the cost side has a certain support for PTA.

Some polyester factories in the downstream have reduced or planned to reduce production, poor production and sales, the operating load has decreased to about 87%, the demand for PTA has decreased, and the enthusiasm for PTA spot procurement is general. In terms of price, the mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have preferential promotion, among which the quotation of polyester POY (150D / 48F) is 7500-7700 yuan / ton, down 200-300 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

Business analysts believe that the current crude oil fundamentals are acceptable, there is no basis for sustained deep decline in prices, there is a greater possibility of short-term wide-range oscillation, and the support at the raw material end remains. In addition, it is understood that a mainstream PTA supplier will further reduce the supply proportion of contract goods in August from 80% to 50%, or postpone delivery to September. Therefore, there are still tight supply expectations in the short term. However, the downstream polyester plant plans to reduce production, and the demand for PTA is expected to decline. On the whole, the power of PTA supply side remains, and the short-term price continues to be warm. In the future, we will pay attention to the implementation of the actual production reduction of polyester plants.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business society, the nickel price rose sharply on the 12th, of which the spot nickel was 146983.33 yuan / ton, up 4.22% in a single day; The main contract of nickel 2109 rose 4.55% in one day. Spot nickel rose 4.22% over the previous trading day, 14.71% over the beginning of the year and 32.16% year-on-year.

The nickel price has been falling weakly since August, until it rebounded from its low in recent two days, basically recovering its decline since August. In terms of supply, in the early stage, the supply of ferronickel was limited due to the counterattack of the epidemic in Indonesia. In addition, due to the lack of transportation capacity, the price of high ferronickel directly broke through the high point in 2017, forcing the continuous general rise of global nickel mines and strong cost support. At present, the overseas epidemic is serious, the epidemic in the Philippines and Indonesia affects export transportation, the return of raw materials is reduced, and the overall supply is still tight. Downstream, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in June was 256000, a year-on-year increase of 1.4 times. The production and sales volume of new energy vehicles from January to June increased by 2 times year-on-year, and the demand for new energy was at a high level; Downstream domestic stainless steel production and sales continued to rise, driving the demand for nickel. Low nickel inventory also supports nickel prices.

Forecast: Recently, the US Senate passed the US $1 trillion infrastructure bill, which will boost metal demand. The overall supply and demand is in a tight pattern, which has strong support for nickel price. However, there is still some pressure to break through the previous high of 150000. It is expected that the short-term high shock pattern of nickel price will be dominated.

Aluminum prices fluctuated upward in August

In early August, the average price of aluminum ingot spot market fluctuated at a high level, with an operating range of 19700-19900 yuan / ton.

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on August 10 was 19903.33 yuan / ton, up 0.13% from 19856 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Taking the average market price of 15726.67 yuan / ton of aluminum ingots at the beginning of the year (January 1, 2021) as the benchmark price, it has increased by 26.43%.

Power rationing in Guangxi is becoming more and more strict, and power rationing and production reduction affect domestic supply

The power limitation of electrolytic aluminum in Southwest China is becoming more and more strict. China Southern Power Grid Guangxi company requires the electrolytic aluminum plants in Guangxi Province to further reduce the power load by 30%. The aluminum plants using China Southern Power Grid need to reduce the current operating capacity by 30%. It is preliminarily estimated that the annual operating capacity of Guangxi will be reduced by about 270000 tons by the end of August, and the resumption time of production is to be determined.

According to statistics, since 2021, the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in five provinces has decreased due to the power restriction policy. According to the published data, the planned and reduced production capacity has reached 1.626 million tons / year, accounting for 3.7% of the annual production capacity in China.

In July, Yunnan electrolytic aluminum plant may be required to raise its production limit to 30% from the previous 25%. Electrolytic aluminum plants in Guizhou and Guangxi also began to limit power slightly two weeks ago. Some aluminum enterprises chose to carry out annual maintenance in advance or reduce load a little. The power restriction requirements became stricter, and Guizhou enterprises were required to cooperate with staggered peak power consumption. In July, there was little hope for the resumption of production capacity shut down in Yunnan, with a monthly reduction of more than 70000 tons. Guangxi power grid issued an orderly power consumption notice of 3 million million kilowatts of load reduction due to wrong peak avoidance, including 500000 kilowatts of load reduction of Baise power grid, 300000 kwh of load reduction of Laibin Power Grid and 360000 kwh of load reduction of Nanning Power Grid. According to the local load reduction demand, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the region may affect or exceed 100000 tons.

The cost side increased slightly

It is roughly estimated that the average cost of electrolytic aluminum industry will generally rise in 2021, with an increase of 11-12% compared with the beginning of the year, and the corresponding increase of aluminum price is 26%. The rising cost side is mainly due to the rising price of electricity price and raw alumina.

Future forecast

August is in the off-season, and domestic demand is expected to slow down, which poses a certain downward risk to aluminum price. However, the production capacity is reduced due to the cost and power restriction. At present, the market inventory is small, which supports the aluminum price.

Ye Jianjun, an analyst of business society, believes that the current price range of 18500-20000 yuan / ton is a steady-state shock range formed by the market game. It is expected that the aluminum ingot price will still operate around 19000 yuan / ton in the near future. On the whole, the short-term downward risk will be weakened and the high shock operation will still be maintained.

1、 Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic market of PA6 operated smoothly in the first week of August, and the spot price was stable and small. As of August 9, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 of China viscosity by the sample enterprises was about 15366.67 yuan / ton, flat compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year increase of 42.72%.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

In terms of upstream caprolactam, the current domestic market undertook that the industry load decreased at the end of last month, and the supply side was in short supply, which benefited the spot price. At the same time, the impact of the decline of raw material pure benzene is also gradually expanding. In August, the global spread of the mutant virus weighed on international oil prices, compounded by the blocked shipment of enterprises and insufficient downstream demand, and pure benzene fell significantly at the beginning of the month. Caprolactam was forced to follow the decline of raw materials, but the price range was still high, the demand side followed up carefully, and the spot trading on the floor was light.

The upstream caprolactam price fluctuated and fell at the beginning of the month. Although the cost side support of PA6 was weakened, it still remained in the high range. The caprolactam on the disk had great pressure on the cost of PA6, the profitability of the polymerization plant was poor, and the enterprise load was suppressed to a certain extent. Recently, the overall operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plant is about 60%, which has little change from the previous period. In terms of market demand, the demand for goods continues, and the consumption of terminal enterprises has not yet come out of the off-season market. The actual trading is mostly for manufacturers to complete early orders, and merchants try to make a firm offer. The market lacks kinetic energy and there is a heavy wait-and-see atmosphere on the floor.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that in early August, although the upstream support for the cost side of PA6 weakened, the price of caprolactam was high and the cost pressure of PA6 was high. At the same time, the domestic slice inventory increased at the end of last month. End users follow up slowly and have a strong wait-and-see mentality. The atmosphere on the floor is weak and the long and short are tangled. It is expected that the spot price of PA6 may be deadlocked in the short term.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (August 6): 2820.00 yuan / ton

On August 6, the ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong was temporarily stable, which was the same as that on August 2, with a year-on-year increase of 63.01%. Upstream coal prices have risen slightly recently, and cost support has been strengthened. From the aspect of demand: the agricultural demand is general, and the industrial demand is normal; The operation of downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants is not high, and the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remains high. Most of them are used with mining and followed up with a proper amount of bargain hunting. In terms of supply, urea has entered the off-season of agricultural demand, and the parking and maintenance plants are relatively concentrated. The daily output of domestic urea has decreased to about 138000 tons, with a significant reduction in daily output. In terms of transportation: affected by the epidemic situation in some areas, logistics and transportation are limited. On the whole, the urea cost support is strengthened, the downstream demand is weakened, the urea supply is tight, and the logistics transportation is limited.

In the future, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong is expected to decline slightly: the average price quoted by the manufacturer is about 2800 yuan / ton.

On August 3, the international oil price continued to fall. The settlement price of the main contract in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market was US $70.56/barrel, down US $0.70 or 0.98%, and the settlement price of the main contract in the Brent crude oil futures market was US $72.41/barrel, down US $0.48 or 0.66%.

Oil prices fell for two consecutive days. On the 3rd, WTI once fell below the $70 mark. WTI fell by 4.58% and Brent fell by nearly 4% in the past two trading days. Oil prices have hit nearly two-week lows. Previously, the economic data recently released by major economies did not perform well. What is more important is that the market’s concern about the slowdown in demand caused by delta virus has been further amplified, as well as the concern about the oversupply caused by the increase of production in oil producing countries.

At the macro level, the global economy is still recovering under the background of the epidemic, but the recently released Sino US economic data show that the economy is slowing down, and the market is worried about the future energy demand.

At present, the epidemic is still the main constraint on the driving force of economic recovery. The spread of delta virus, the resumption of blockade and restriction measures by some economies and countries, including the increase of epidemic prevention measures in some regions of China, undoubtedly further depresses fuel demand.

At the same time, when the prospect of crude oil demand is confused, oil producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia began to increase production. It is reported that the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) significantly increased oil production in July. Under the combined influence of increased supply and slowing demand, the decline in oil prices further deepened.

In addition, from the recently released inventory data, API crude oil inventory in the United States recorded a decrease of 879000 barrels in the week to July 30, far lower than the expected decrease of 1.4 million barrels, compared with the previous value of 4.278 million barrels. It can be seen that the driving season in North America is not strong enough, and there are signs of further slowdown in demand.

In the future, the business society believes that the recent oil price is still in a short market atmosphere, and the fear of oversupply caused by the increase in production of oil producing countries lingers. The latest ministerial meeting was also held on September 1. Before that, the market supply was still negative. In addition, the threat of delta virus to the global economy is also difficult to contact in the short term. Therefore, it is expected that oil prices will not perform well in the near future.