1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the average price of EPS ordinary material at the beginning of the week was 10500 yuan/ton, and the average price of EPS ordinary material at the end of the week was 10450 yuan/ton, down 0.48%, up 2.70% compared with the same period of the year.

2、 Market analysis

Near the end of the year, terminal parking was widespread, and market sentiment was cold. In recent years, the continuous expansion of EPS production capacity led to an obvious imbalance between supply and demand. Some businesses were short of the future market, and were cautious to wait and see. At the end of the year, the stock was relatively small, and the overall trading volume was poor. With the further reduction of temperature in the north, the demand for insulation panels represented by North China and Northeast China may fall to freezing point, and some EPS devices are expected to stop in advance.

On the cost side, the supply of styrene may remain high, and the demand for downstream hard rubber, especially EPS, will continue to weaken, but the intention to be bullish on funds has not changed temporarily. On the supply side, some early shutdown devices will resume production. On the demand side, as the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for downstream large parking areas is expected to continue to weaken next week.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The price of styrene rose first and then fell, and the EPS transaction was weak. It is expected that the EPS price will be mainly in a weak trend.

Recent urea price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic urea market price rose slightly this week, and the urea price rose from 2698.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 2742.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 1.63%, up 5.79% year-on-year. The urea commodity index on January 8 was 127.07, which was the same as yesterday, down 16.58% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 (2022-05-15), and up 128.54% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Cost support is good, downstream demand is weak, and urea supply is tight

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream price of domestic urea rose this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea quoted 2950 yuan/ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the last weekend; Shandong Ruixing Urea quoted 2700 yuan/ton this weekend, up 70 yuan/ton from last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng urea quoted 2700 yuan/ton this weekend, up 30 yuan/ton compared with last weekend.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the urea upstream market rose and fell this week: the price of liquefied natural gas rose slightly, from 6060.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 6438.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 5.24%, up 28.93% from the same period last year; The price of anthracite is at a high level, and the price of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium lump) is 1870 yuan/ton; The price of liquid ammonia dropped slightly, from 4673.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 4606.67 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 1.43%, up 4.07% year-on-year from the same period last year. Upstream raw materials rose and fell sharply, and the price of urea was generally supported. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was low, and the price was 8233.33 yuan/ton.

From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand increased slightly and industrial demand was normal. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plant is average, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is average. The plate and melamine enterprises are generally started, and mainly need to purchase. From the perspective of supply: some units in Shanxi have started to resume production, and some gas head enterprises have stopped for maintenance. The daily output of urea is about 150000 tons.

Mainly rising slightly in the future

The domestic urea market may rise slightly in the middle and late January. According to the urea analyst of the Business News Agency, the prices of anthracite and liquefied gas in the upstream of urea rose slightly, and the cost of urea was well supported. Downstream agricultural demand increased slightly, and industrial demand was normal. Some gas head enterprises shut down for maintenance, and the daily output of urea is about 150000 tons. In the future, urea rose mainly in a narrow range.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of January 6, the average price of domestic rubber grade superior white carbon black was 5750.00 yuan/ton. The white carbon black was mainly stable, and the price fluctuation was not obvious compared with the same period last week. The overall market was mainly stable, and the mainstream price was about 6000 yuan/ton.

This week, the white carbon black market was mainly operated stably, and the price fluctuation was not obvious. The mainstream price was about 6000 yuan/ton, mainly for contract customers, and the downstream just needed to purchase. At present, the supply side is normal.

Chemical index: On January 5, the chemical index was 911 points, down 4 points from yesterday, down 34.93% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and up 52.34% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

The white carbon black analyst of the business community believes that the rubber grade white carbon black market will mainly operate stably in the short term

According to the data monitored by the business community, the prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate in December showed a downward trend, and the prices kept falling. As of December 31, the average domestic mixed price of industrial lithium carbonate was 504000 yuan/ton, down 11.73% compared with the average price of 571000 yuan/ton on December 1. On December 31, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 525000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.56% compared with the average price of 587000 yuan/ton on December 1.

Market supply

From the observation of market changes, the overall price of lithium carbonate in December was in a downward trend. Lithium salt plants on the market are still dominated by long-term associations, with a small number of spot transactions. In early December, the news that Yongxing Materials temporarily stopped production due to its cooperation with the local environmental protection investigation received the attention of insiders. It is understood that the main investigated areas are Shanggao, Gao’an, Yifeng, etc. Among them, Yongxing New Energy, Tiancheng Lithium and Linneng Lithium have announced the temporary shutdown of lithium carbonate smelting enterprises, which will have a certain impact on the overall production of lithium carbonate in December.

In late December, the price decline of lithium carbonate continued to expand, and the price of large lithium salt plants was slightly adjusted. Some of them were sold in stock, and the sentiment of price fixing was strong. With the completion of the annual sales plan, we did not need to rush out the individual orders, and started to sign the long-term agreement order for next year. However, traders have strong bearish sentiment, so the selling sentiment is heavy, and the transaction price keeps falling.

Demand side

The purchase intention price of downstream Sanyuan and iron lithium plants has been continuously lowered, and the purchase intensity has been reduced. The downstream market tends to be cautious about raw materials and inventory preparation, market demand sentiment and expected price are weak, and the downstream and terminal markets are basically in the state of digesting inventory, so the downward trend of lithium carbonate price is clear. With the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday, the positive pole factory generally reported that the order was reduced, and said that unless necessary, it might not plan to purchase before the year.

The market of lithium hydroxide in the downstream is weak. Due to the downward trend of lithium carbonate, the demand side is slightly weak, the trading atmosphere in the spot market is flat, and the market of lithium hydroxide is falling. In addition, the positive pole factory said that it was unnecessary to purchase goods and continued to be bearish on the future market price, so the price of lithium hydroxide decreased.

The price of lithium iron phosphate in the downstream is weak. With the price of electric carbon and industrial carbon at the raw material end entering the downward cycle, the downstream is increasingly wait-and-see, and there is little purchase. All of them mainly consume the early inventory or prepare for mining on demand. The decrease in demand also led to a significant decline in the shipment of iron lithium enterprises in December.

According to lithium carbonate analysts from the business community, the current market continues to be bearish on the price of lithium salt. At the critical moment of signing the 2023 long order at the end of the year, the game between salt plants and material plants continues. In terms of traders, the quotation continues to decline, and a small number of low price spot transactions continue to drive the market price to gradually lower. It is expected that the short-term lithium carbonate price will continue to be weak.

This week (December 26-31, 2022), the downstream demand for nylon filament further cooled, the market continued to be weak, the price was weak and stable, and the supply of goods remained adequate and stable. The wait-and-see atmosphere of downstream enterprises has increased, the terminal textile and clothing consumption is still insufficient, the enthusiasm for fabric procurement is not high, and the market transaction atmosphere continues to be weak.

Market price trend

Nylon price chart

Price trend chart of nylon POY (86D/24F)

According to the price monitoring of the business community, (December 26-31, 2022), the price of nylon filament was weak and stable. As of December 31, 2022, the price of nylon filament DTY (superior product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu Province was 16980 yuan/ton, the same as last week’s price; Nylon POY (superior product; 86D/24F) quoted 14725 yuan/ton, the same as last week’s price; Nylon FDY (Premium: 40D/12F) price was 17750 yuan/ton, which was the same as last week’s price.

Upstream raw material market

Price rise and fall chart of nylon filament industry chain

Raw material caprolactam: On December 26, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market was 11066 yuan/ton, and on December 30, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market was 11066 yuan/ton. Caprolactam prices are stable this week. Some caprolactam manufacturers have overhauled their devices, and some manufacturers have restarted their devices. The supply side has not changed much. The terminal demand is weak, a small amount of raw materials are purchased, and there are few deals on the market. In the case of weak supply and demand, caprolactam market is weak.

Supply and demand

At present, the commencement of nylon filament shows a downward trend, with overcapacity overflow, high inventory consolidation, and the market is dominated by the digestion of inventory. On the whole, the downstream demand shows that the textile market is hard to hide the weak trend. Weaving manufacturers’ enthusiasm for stocking raw materials has declined. The market atmosphere is cold and the terminal demand is weak. The weaving machine rate has also weakened again. Bad news has flowed out from many places. Most weaving factories maintain the minimum load production.

Future market forecast

In the later stage, the upstream raw materials are weak and low, the supply of goods in the market is sufficient, the downstream demand will be further reduced, the downstream commencement will decline, and the overall demand for textile terminals will decrease. Analysts from the business community expect that the nylon filament market will continue its weak finishing operation in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of December 29, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 18333.33 yuan/ton, 0.90% lower than the price of 18500.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 1.85% higher than the same period last year.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of December 29, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 24500.00 yuan/ton, down 3.29% from the price of 25333.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and down 20.97% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In December, the price of domestic refrigerant R22 was generally weak and stable. Pressed by the continuous weakness of upstream raw material prices in November, the prices quoted by enterprises decreased slightly in December. The overall price decline of raw material trichloromethane stabilized in the month, with a small drop of 4.23% in the month. The price of hydrofluoric acid fell again, with a 1.8% drop in the month. The cost of raw materials continued to be weak. The domestic refrigerant R22 market price continued to bear pressure and adjusted slightly. Supported by the overall low inventory of enterprises at the end of the year, the overall domestic R22 market price was weak and stabilized in December.

In December, the domestic price of trichloroethylene continued to be weak, with a decline of about 9% in the month. The price of hydrofluoric acid dropped slightly, with an overall decline of 1.8% in the month. The cost of raw materials fell again. In addition, the demand for refrigerants in winter was light. The overall downstream purchase and sales were cautious, and the cost was suppressed. In November, the domestic price of refrigerant R134a was stable, moderate and weak.

12 The domestic hydrofluoric acid price has risen and fallen slightly, and the rising and falling raw material price will suppress the future refrigerant R134a price to a certain extent.

3、 Future market forecast

Refrigerant analysts from the business community believe that in December, the price of refrigerant upstream raw materials remained weak, the cost of raw materials fell again, and the demand for refrigerant in winter was light. Under the pressure of cost and demand, the price of domestic refrigerant R22 and R134a will continue to be dominated by stable, moderate and weak operation under pressure in the short term.

The price of aluminum fluoride is weak and stable this week

According to the data from the business community, as of December 26, the average price of aluminum fluoride in China was 12200 yuan/ton, down 0.41% from 12250 yuan/ton on December 19. The demand is poor, and the price of aluminum fluoride is weak this week.

The price of raw materials is temporarily stable

According to the monitoring of the business community, as of December 26, the price of fluorite was 3387.50 yuan/ton, stable compared with 3387.50 yuan/ton on December 18; As of December 26, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 12757.14 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with the price of 12757.14 yuan/ton on December 18. This week, the prices of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid remained stable at a high level, the prices of raw materials were temporarily stable, the cost of aluminum fluoride was temporarily stable, and the upward momentum of aluminum fluoride was weakened.

Adjustment of downstream demand weakness

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of electrolytic aluminum dropped slightly this week. As of December 26, the price of electrolytic aluminum was 18766.67 yuan/ton, down 0.46% from 18853.33 yuan/ton on December 18. The impact of epidemic prevention and control on economic recovery was less than expected, the price of electrolytic aluminum fell, the demand for aluminum fluoride was poor, and the downward pressure on aluminum fluoride increased.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts from the aluminum fluoride industry of the business community believe that the prices of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid will be temporarily stable this week, while the prices of electrolytic aluminum will fall in shock. The cost of aluminum fluoride is temporarily stable, and the demand is not good. The rising power of aluminum fluoride is weakened, and the downward pressure is increased. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will become weak and stable in the future.

According to the data of the bulk list of business cooperatives, as of December 21, the average price of 85% domestic industrial formic acid enterprises was 3000.00 yuan/ton, which was the same as that of last Thursday (December 15).

Recently (12.15-12.21) the market price of domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid kept stable. Recently, the price of raw material sulfuric acid has fallen, the price of raw material methanol has been weak, and the cost support is weak. The downstream inquiry and procurement are moderate. The enterprise mainly ships, the market delivery is orderly, and the negotiation focus continues to operate stably.

Upstream product: upstream sulfuric acid. On December 20, the domestic sulfuric acid market price fell. On December 20, the reference price of sulfuric acid was 296.67, down 5.31% compared with December 15 (313.33); On December 20, the reference price of upstream methanol was 2640.00, down 1.43% compared with December 15 (2678.33).

The formic acid analysts of the business community believe that the current cost support is limited, the supply and demand support is fair, and the market transaction is just in demand. In the short term, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market may still be stable, and more attention should be paid to the downstream pre festival stock demand.

This week (12.12-16), domestic butyl acetate continued to decline, and the market was short of good news. It is mainly due to weak demand and weak support of upstream acetic acid and n-butanol. According to the monitoring of the business community, butyl acetate fell 0.86% this week. The domestic mainstream quotation of butyl acetate on Friday was 7100-7350 yuan/ton.

First of all, from the perspective of cost, the market of acetic acid and n-butanol deviated, acetic acid declined slightly, with a weekly decline of 0.55%, while n-butanol rose strongly, with a weekly increase of 7.23%. However, it is still unable to pull the weak market of supply and demand.

From the perspective of acetic acid, according to the monitoring of the business community, the price of acetic acid continued to decline this week, and the price is still hovering at a low level. Downstream demand downturn is difficult to support prices out of the haze, especially in North China, Northwest and other regions where demand is weak, and the fundamentals are negative, which may be difficult to reverse in the later period.

From the perspective of supply and demand, butyl acetate shows a relatively prominent pressure of supply and demand, and the market shows that both supply and demand are not strong. On the supply side, the operating rate of manufacturers remains low, and the market operating rate is still below 40%. The supply pressure is not large. This week, the prices of butyl acetate manufacturers remained at last week’s level. Downstream demand has not improved significantly. The market trading and investment atmosphere is not good, and most businesses are bearish.

Future market forecast: In the short term, the cost of butyl acetate will improve in the short term. In the later period, n-butanol may drive the rise of butyl ester, but the supply and demand are not strong or the market will be troubled for a long time. The weak shock will continue. In the near future, attention should be paid to the price trend of upstream acetic acid and n-butanol, as well as the commencement of downstream plants.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose slightly this week. This week, the average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde mainstream market rose from 6216.67 yuan/ton at the weekend to 6600.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 6.18%. A year-on-year decrease of 21.43%. On December 18, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 33.50, unchanged from yesterday, down 68.27% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 (2021-09-16), and up 11.22% from the lowest point of 30.12 on October 7, 2022. (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers rose this week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market of isobutyraldehyde upstream raw material market rose slightly this week, with the price rising from 7436.60 yuan/ton at the weekend to 7608.60 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 2.34%. The upstream raw material market price rose slightly, and the cost support increased. Affected by the supply and demand, it had a positive impact on the isobutyraldehyde price. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol rose slightly, with the price rising from 8966.67 yuan/ton at the weekend to 9166.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 2.23%. Neopentyl glycol market rose slightly, with better downstream demand, which had a positive impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future outlook

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in late December may rise slightly. The upstream propylene market rose slightly and cost support increased. The downstream neopentyl glycol market stopped falling and rose, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased. The isobutyraldehyde analysts from the business community believe that the isobutyraldehyde market may rise slightly due to the impact of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects in the short-term isobutyraldehyde market.