In March, the market for styrene butadiene rubber was weak and declining. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of March 31, the price of 1502 butadiene benzene was 11341 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.94% from 12058 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material butadiene has significantly decreased, while the price of styrene has narrowed and stabilized, resulting in weaker cost support; In March, the start of downstream tire factories fluctuated slightly, and the new demand for styrene butadiene rubber was weak. In late March, the market turnover was light, the ex factory price of styrene butadiene rubber was significantly reduced, and the market price of styrene butadiene rubber was lower.

In March, the price of butadiene, the raw material for styrene butadiene rubber, significantly decreased, and the price of styrene narrowed, resulting in a downward trend in the cost of styrene butadiene rubber. According to monitoring by Business Society, as of March 31, the price of butadiene was 8551 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.96% from 9712 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. As of March 31st, the price of styrene was 8458 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.17% from 8558 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

The natural rubber market fell in March, which had a bearish impact on styrene butadiene rubber. As of March 31st, the price was at 11525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.11% from 12020 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Demand side: The operating rate of downstream tire companies in March has temporarily remained around 70%, and there has been no significant increase in demand for styrene butadiene rubber. In addition, the low price of natural rubber makes styrene butadiene rubber less advantageous. The demand side for styrene butadiene rubber in March was mainly weak.

Future Forecast: Business Society analysts believe that there is currently no significant improvement in downstream construction in the short term, and the demand for styrene butadiene rubber is expected to be weak. In addition, the supply side is expected to change little in April. However, multiple oil producing countries are jointly reducing production, and it is expected that crude oil prices will run high. styrene butadiene rubber may receive cost support, and it is expected that the styrene butadiene rubber market will fluctuate widely in April.

DBP prices fluctuated and rose in March

According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, as of March 31, the DBP price was 9675 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.79% compared to the DBP price of 9412.50 yuan/ton on March 1. Plasticizer DBP enterprises started steadily, DBP supply was sufficient, and raw material prices were supported by rising prices. In March, DBP prices fluctuated and rose.

Raw material prices fluctuated and rose in March

According to the price monitoring by the Business Society, as of March 31, the price of n-butanol was 7766.67 yuan/ton, up 10.43% from March 1, when the price of n-butanol was 7033.33 yuan. The start-up of n-butanol enterprises has been stable. As the temperature rises, downstream demand rebounds, n-butanol prices fluctuate and rise, DBP cost support increases, and the upward momentum for DBP in the future increases.

According to the price monitoring by the Business Agency, as of March 31, the quotation for ortho phthalic anhydride was 8625 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.07% compared to the price of 8475 yuan/ton on March 1. In March, the price of ortho-xylene fluctuated and increased, with a strong willingness to stand up for phthalic anhydride. In March, the market for phthalic anhydride remained stagnant, and the upward momentum for DBP remained.

Aftermarket expectations

DBP data analysts from the Business News Agency believe that in March, plasticizer enterprises started operations stably and DBP supply was sufficient; In terms of raw materials, the price of phthalic anhydride rose first and then fell, the market for phthalic anhydride remained stagnant, the price of n-butanol rose significantly, and the cost of DBP raw materials rose. The cost of plasticizer DBP is rising, and the demand is weak. The price of DBP is fluctuating and rising. In the future, the market for phthalic anhydride is stagnant, and the price of n-butanol is rising. The support for DBP growth remains. It is expected that the price of DBP will fluctuate and consolidate at a high level in the future.

According to the monitoring by the Business News Agency, the domestic ethanol market fell unilaterally in March. From March 1st to 30th, the average price of domestic ethanol producers fell from 7192 yuan/ton to 7021 yuan/ton, with a 2.38% decrease in price during the cycle and a 4.14% year-on-year decrease in price.

At the beginning of this month, the quotations of production enterprises were mainly in line with the market, but the unit operating rate was stable, inventory was constantly overstocked, and demand was weak. In the first ten days of this month, the supply of production enterprises was stable, the price was slightly adjusted, the commencement of downstream ethyl acetate in chemical industry rose slightly, the demand for Baijiu was weak, and the ethanol market continued to be weak. In the middle of June, manufacturers in some regions have repeatedly lowered their prices, with an overall price adjustment range of around 150 yuan/ton. At the same time, downstream demand is flat, and traders are not moving fast. In the late part of this month, production enterprises mostly fell and then sorted out. Traders lowered their prices in order to keep their orders, with a price adjustment range of around 50-100 yuan/ton. However, downstream demand was weak, actual orders were insufficient, and the market atmosphere was more wait-and-see.

On the cost side, according to the monitoring by the Business Cooperative, on March 30, the benchmark price of corn in the Business Cooperative was 2765.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.53% compared to the beginning of this month (2808.57 yuan/ton). With the comprehensive recovery of corn trade in production areas, the market volume of corn has resumed, and the purchase price of corn has been continuously lowered after the corn inventory of ports and downstream deep processing enterprises has been replenished to some extent. In the second half of March, China’s aquaculture and feed production and processing market will continue to recover slowly, but overall, it will continue to be in the seasonal off-season stage. The corn market is weak. The cost side of ethanol is empty.

As for the supply side, as of the end of March, the overall ethanol market has been operating steadily at start-up load, with the main plant plants operating at high load, increasing supply, and some low load production in northern Jiangsu. The Guannan plant has been shut down, the Jinchanglin plant has been shut down, and the Changxing and Maibohui plants in southern Jiangsu have been started up. The negative impact of ethanol supply increases.

On the demand side, the starting of chemical ethyl acetate slightly decreased, the demand for Baijiu was weak, and the demand for fuel ethanol was stable. Short term ethanol demand is bearish.

According to the future market forecast, the cost support is insufficient, and the downstream demand is mainly rigid. Ethanol analysts from the Business News Agency predict that the domestic ethanol market will run in a weak trend in the short term.

According to monitoring data from Business News Agency, as of March 29, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 10212.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.09% compared to the price on March 1.

In March, the propylene oxide market rose first and then fell. In the first ten days, the price of raw material propylene fluctuated in a narrow range, and the price of raw material liquid chlorine was operating strongly, with limited cost impact. Some units were shut down for maintenance, and the supply side was low and pressureless, supporting the market price increase. The demand side remained on the sidelines to follow up. In the middle of the year, the price of raw material propylene fluctuated and fell, while the price of raw material liquid chlorine rose slightly, with little impact on the cost side. There were many fluctuations in the supply side devices, and the price was lowered under pressure from the factory inventory. Downstream buyers followed up cautiously, mainly on demand. In the second half of the month, the price of propylene fell first and then rose, while the price of raw material liquid chlorine declined, with weaker cost support. Supply side devices were mainly stable, with general shipments from factories in production. The market trading atmosphere was light, and the propylene oxide market was weak in consolidation and operation. Towards the end of the month, downstream purchasing sentiment was moderate, and the market was cautious and wait-and-see. Prices of some enterprises have been adjusted due to fluctuations.

According to the bulk list data of the business news agency, the reference price of propylene on March 28th was 7036.60, a decrease of 6.46% compared to March 1st (7522.60).

According to the propylene oxide analyst from the Business Agency, the current cost impact is limited, with stable supply side devices primarily, cautious downstream follow-up, and a light market atmosphere. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market may be in a weak position, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, as of March 28, 2023, the domestic silicone DMC market price reference was 15860 yuan/ton. Compared to the March 1, 2023 (silicone DMC reference price 17380 yuan/ton) price, the price was reduced by 1480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.75%.

As can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the Business Agency, the overall domestic silicone DMC market has shown a continuous downward trend since March (3.1-3.28). Although March has arrived, the “peak season has not yet arrived”. In March, the organic silicon DMC market has not ushered in a vigorous procurement scene, and the overall downstream demand is difficult to support the delivery rhythm of the supply side. With the continued weak demand, the center of gravity of the organic silicon DMC market continues to close downward, and the transmission of supply and demand is blocked. Towards the end of the month, the overall decline of the organic silicon DMC market has reached around 1300-1800 yuan/ton, a decline of more than 8%. As of March 28, the domestic silicone DMC market price is around 15400-16200 yuan/ton, and the price at the higher end is around 16500 yuan/ton.

Prediction of the future trend of silicone DMC market

Currently, although the supply side of silicone DMC has been actively regulated, the overall supply side on the market is still on the high side. The supply side has given some pressure, and the overall supply and demand support is relatively weak. According to the silicone DMC data analyst of the business agency, in the short term, the domestic silicone DMC market will mostly be adjusted and operated in a weak and narrow range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in information on the supply and demand side.

The domestic cobalt price fluctuated and fell this week

According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, as of March 27, the cobalt price was 299300 yuan/ton, down 1.45% from 303700 yuan/ton on March 20. The price of lithium battery products fell, while the price of cobalt followed the decline.

Prices of lithium battery sector fell together

From the price trend table of lithium battery industry chain products, it can be seen that the prices of lithium battery industry chain products fell significantly in March. Lithium battery related metal nickel fell, lithium salt prices plummeted, and metal cobalt prices followed suit. The sales of new energy vehicles fell short of expectations, and the demand for cobalt in the market was poor, with insufficient support for the rise in cobalt prices.

Import of cobalt raw materials increased year-on-year

From the histogram of cobalt raw material import, it can be seen that in January and February 2023, the import of cobalt raw material increased year-on-year, and the import of cobalt raw material steadily increased. The supply of cobalt in the market is sufficient, and the downward pressure on cobalt prices in the future is increasing.

Overview and outlook

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business News, believes that the sales of mobile phones have plummeted, the sales of new energy vehicles have fallen short of expectations, the demand for cobalt in the market has fallen short of expectations, the import volume of cobalt in the market has increased year-on-year, and the supply of cobalt in the market is sufficient. Overall, the supply of cobalt in the future market exceeded demand, and the price of cobalt fluctuated and fell.

According to the monitoring by the Business News Agency, the domestic rare earth market price index has declined, and the domestic light rare earth market is difficult to reverse its downward trend. On March 23, the rare earth index stood at 539 points, down 46.47% from the highest point in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 98.89% from the lowest point 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The price trend of domestic metal praseodymium, neodymium oxide, metal praseodymium, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide declined. As of the 24th day, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium was 680000 yuan/ton, and the price fell 16.56% in March; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 557500 yuan/ton, down 17.41% in March; The price of neodymium oxide was 595000 yuan/ton, down 15.60% in March; The price of neodymium metal was 745000 yuan/ton, down 16.76% in March; The price of praseodymium metal was 742500 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 16.57% in March; The price of praseodymium oxide was 555000 yuan/ton, with a 17.47% decline in March.

The recent decline in the rare earth market is difficult to change, and the order situation of downstream magnetic material enterprises has remained sluggish. Magnetic material factories mainly consume existing inventory. The focus of the actual transaction price of rare earth continues to move downward, putting pressure on the rare earth market. In the near future, the prices of rare earth metals and oxides have fallen simultaneously, and the cost inversion of raw materials in metal factories is still difficult to alleviate in the short term. Some metal factories have reduced their production burden. Recently, downstream user demand has not significantly increased, rare earth manufacturers continue to release their production capacity, and some traders still show a slight lack of confidence in the future market. Negative factors overlap, resulting in lower prices in the domestic light rare earth market.

According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles is acceptable. According to data released by the China Automobile Industry Association, the national automobile production and sales in February reached 2032000 and 1976000 units, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 27.5% and 19.8%, and a year-on-year increase of 11.9% and 13.5%. In February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles nationwide reached 552000 and 525000, respectively, with a month-on-month increase of 30% and 28.7%, a year-on-year increase of 48.8% and 55.9%, and a market share of 26.6%. Although the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles has increased, downstream permanent magnet procurement is very rare, and the price decline in the light rare earth market is difficult to change.

Recently, the procurement of rare earth downstream businesses is weak, and demand is difficult to improve. In addition, the upstream supply is sufficient, the supply and demand contradiction is acute, and the transaction situation is poor. In the short term, the decline of the rare earth market is difficult to change. In the long term, the sustainable development of the new energy vehicles, wind power, and variable frequency air conditioning fields in the downstream of rare earth, as well as the rapid development of emerging industries, will greatly increase the demand for rare earth functional materials, and the demand for the rare earth industry will further increase.

In the first quarter of 2023, the epidemic control was fully opened, and coal prices fell again and again, resulting in a serious shortage of calcium carbide cost support. Adding to the US dollar interest rate hike, some banks in Europe and the United States have been thunderstruck, investors’ risk aversion has increased, PVC futures prices have bottomed out, social inventories have been high, exports have fallen short of expectations, and PVC spot prices have fluctuated. Multiple factors have affected the continuous decline in carbide prices, with carbide prices dropping from 3700 yuan/ton at the beginning of January to 3200 yuan/ton at the end of March, with an overall decline of 13.51% in the first quarter.

In January, the PVC market price rose sharply, and the demand for calcium carbide increased. The price of calcium carbide increased slightly by 3.15%. In February, the price of blue charcoal fell sharply, with insufficient support, and the price of calcium carbide plummeted 8.73%. In March, the pre-sale orders for calcium carbide decreased, and the PVC market price fell. The price of calcium carbide continued to decline by 8.13%, and there was still a downward trend at the end of the month.

From the supply side, in the first quarter, the factory prices of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in the northwest region fell sharply. Overall, the price of calcium carbide fell sharply in the quarter, with insufficient order follow-up, high inventory pressure, and average shipment.

Cost side: sharp decline in the price of blue charcoal

In the first quarter, the price of carbide upstream blue charcoal fell sharply. The market price of Shenmulan charcoal intermediate fell from 1800 yuan/ton in mid January to 1230 yuan/ton at the end of March, a decrease of 31.67%. The price of upstream blue charcoal has dropped significantly, and the cost support for carbide is seriously insufficient.

Demand side: PVC market price fluctuates

The downstream PVC market price of calcium carbide fluctuated in the first quarter. In January, the PVC market price slightly increased by 4.29%. In February, the PVC market price first fell and then rose, with the PVC price first falling from 6338.33 yuan/ton in early February to 6153.33 yuan/ton in mid February, a decrease of 2.92%. Later, it rose to 6313.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 2.60%. In February, the overall PVC market fell by 0.39%. The market price of PVC continued to decline in March, with the price of PVC falling from 6243.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6100.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 2.30%. At the end of the month, prices fell 31.31% year-on-year. The order performance of PVC downstream enterprises was poor, and PVC export forward orders weakened. The overall demand support for PVC was limited, coupled with high social inventory, and the price performance of PVC was weak.

In the first quarter, the market price of 1,4-butanediol rose first and then fell. 1. In February, the market price of 1,4-butanediol significantly increased, with an overall increase of 43.15%. In December, the market situation was very good, and the enthusiasm for carbide procurement increased. In March, the market price of 1,4-butanediol significantly decreased, from 13816.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 11666.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 15.56%. Affected by the mentality of buying up rather than buying down, the enthusiasm of 1,4-butanediol enterprises for calcium carbide procurement weakened in March.

Looking at the future market: In mid to early April, the calcium carbide market may decline slightly, mainly through consolidation. The price of upstream raw material blue carbon has stabilized at a low level, and the cost of calcium carbide is generally supported. Calcium carbide enterprises have a high operating rate and high inventory. The downstream PVC and 1,4-butanediol market continued to decline, resulting in insufficient downstream demand. As supply exceeds demand, it is predicted in the future that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fluctuate slightly in the first ten days of mid April, mainly due to consolidation.

According to data monitored by the Business News Agency, the average ex-factory price of light potassium carbonate in Shanxi this week, including taxes, was 9100.00 yuan/ton, with the current price increasing by 0.28% month on month and 0.37% year on year.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate fluctuated and consolidated this week. As can be seen from the above figure, the recent potassium carbonate market has fluctuated slightly, and this week’s market has declined slightly. Domestic potassium manufacturers have sufficient supply, with a significant increase in supply from border trade sources and a decrease in prices. Trading in the potassium carbonate market was quiet, and the potassium carbonate market was weak and consolidated. According to the statistics of the Business News Agency, this week, the mainstream factory quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate is around 9000-9300 yuan/ton (for reference only). The quotation varies depending on the procurement situation.

Recently, the quotations of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers have fallen: currently, 62% of white potassium in border trade is 3350-3500 yuan/ton, with high spot prices. Yingkou Port quoted a price of 3650-3700 yuan/ton for 62% white potassium, Zhanjiang Port quoted a price of 3600-3650 yuan/ton for 62% white potassium, and Fangcheng Port quoted a price of 3600-3650 yuan/ton for 62% white potassium.

The focus of the domestic potash fertilizer market continues to shift downward, with poor cost support. Downstream purchases remain in demand. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly decline in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (The above prices are provided by major manufacturers of potassium nitrate throughout the country and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts from the business community. They are for reference only. For more price details, please contact relevant manufacturers for consultation.).

From March 10 to March 17, 2022, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China was lowered, from 7283.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7183.33 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 1.37%.

In terms of crude oil, the price of crude oil rose in early March, and China, as the largest importer and second largest consumer of crude oil, has a profound impact on the oil market. The recent strong performance of macroeconomic data has further strengthened market bullish expectations. The official manufacturing PMI in February was 52.6, setting a record for the fastest expansion since February 2012; The PMI of Caixin manufacturing industry in February was 51.6, the first expansion in nearly seven months, and the economic recovery boosted expectations of oil demand. The late collapse of a US Silicon Valley bank, coupled with the US inflation report data that was not optimistic, triggered concerns about financial risks in the market. In addition, Credit Suisse’s unease hit the financial market, putting pressure on risky assets such as stock markets and crude oil, and adding to the negative impact of the US crude oil inventory growth that exceeded expectations, further dragging down oil demand and causing crude oil prices to plummet. On March 17th, international crude oil futures fell. The main contract settlement price for US WTI crude oil futures was $66.93 per barrel, down $1.59 or 2.3%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $72.77 per barrel, down $1.52 or 2.0%.

The ex-factory price of Sinopec pure benzene increased by 100 yuan/ton on March 8, 2023, and is currently implemented at 7200 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7150 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7200 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7053 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7100 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7200 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a histogram. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K column indicates the range of fluctuation. The K-column chart of weekly pure benzene shows that after entering July, the price of pure benzene has continuously decreased, with a slight recovery in late August and early September. The price mainly decreased from October to December, with a recovery in January and a slight increase for five consecutive weeks after February.

Industry chain: The overall decline in the pure benzene market this week, with both crude oil and styrene weakening at the beginning of the week, affecting the mindset of the pure benzene market. The market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment and relatively cold trading. In the middle of the week, the styrene market strengthened, and the market mentality slightly improved, leading to some inbound inquiries. By the end of the week, crude oil and styrene had fallen again, and market sentiment had declined again. This week, the overall performance of the pure benzene market was weak, dragging down the trend of the hydrogenation benzene market, with the price falling mainly during the week.

The overall performance of the hydrogenation benzene market this week was weak, with market prices reduced by 150-250 yuan/ton during the week, and factory prices in the main production areas decreased by about 100 yuan/ton. The supply side has not changed much this week, and the demand side has also been relatively stable. The main factor affecting market price fluctuations during the week is the trend of pure benzene. Overall, the current performance of crude oil is weak, with insufficient support for pure benzene, and negative factors dominating. It is expected that the overall weak operation of the industry chain market is dominated in the short term