Market Overview: (1.17-1.27)
Supported by the active contraction of the supply side, the price center of the dichloromethane market has slightly shifted upward, showing a pattern of “steady but firm”. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of January 27th, the average price of dichloromethane dispersed water in Shandong Province was reported at 1790 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.43% during the period. The main driving logic of the market has gradually shifted from “weak demand” to the combined effect of “cost support and supply contraction”.
Supply side: Device load reduction becomes a key bottom support factor
The most significant change in this cycle comes from the active adjustment of the supply side:
Concentrated load reduction and declining operating rate: The load of major production facilities has dropped to 50-70%. As a result, the overall operating rate of the industry has continued to decline from 75.8% in the middle of the month, effectively shrinking the market supply elasticity.
Inventory is in a healthy range: production enterprises actively control inventory, while traders generally maintain zero or low inventory operations. Therefore, despite average demand, the market has not formed a significant inventory selling pressure, providing a buffer space for prices.
Cost side: Double raw material increase builds strong support
The cost pressure has significantly increased, and the willingness of enterprises to lower prices is extremely low
Methanol prices are rising: Supported by reduced imports, increased shipping costs, and downstream rigid procurement, the methanol market is strengthening. As of January 27th, the benchmark price of methanol in Shengyi Society has risen to 2315 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.85% during the period.
The price of liquid chlorine remains high and firm: the ex factory price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region remains at a high level of 350-450 yuan/ton. The simultaneous rise of two major raw materials has led to a significant increase in costs for methane chloride enterprises, resulting in production losses and providing rigid support for the price of dichloromethane on the cost side.
On the demand side: rigid procurement is the main focus, limiting the height of price increases
The lack of resonance between demand and supply contraction has limited the height of market rebound
Downstream on-demand procurement: The downstream industry only maintains rigid demand and has not engaged in centralized stocking behavior before the Spring Festival, resulting in average market transaction heat.
Market mentality cautious: Traders generally adopt a wait-and-see attitude, taking small orders as needed, resulting in weak overall market liquidity and a lack of strong demand driven prices.
Market outlook: Cost and demand game, expected to fluctuate narrowly
Overall, the market is trapped in a game pattern of “cost bottom and demand cap”:
Difficulty in price increase: The downstream capacity is insufficient, and there is a lack of cooperation in volume trading, resulting in significant resistance to price breakthroughs.
Difficult to fall: Production enterprises are already on the brink of losses and have stabilized prices by reducing losses, with solid cost support.
Therefore, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will maintain a narrow fluctuation trend in the short term. Any directional breakthrough in prices requires waiting for unexpected changes on the demand side or further significant adjustments on the supply side.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the adipic acid market continued to rise in January, with prices continuing to rise. At the beginning of January, the average market price of adipic acid was 7133 yuan/ton. On January 26th, the average market price of adipic acid was 7633 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 7.01%.
Positive support, adipic acid market continues to rise in January
After the New Year’s Day, the prices of raw materials such as pure benzene and cyclohexanone continued to rise, supported by costs. Manufacturers continuously raised the ex factory price of adipic acid, and market transactions improved. As the Spring Festival approached, downstream nylon and polyurethane industries were boosted by stocking prices, supported by multiple favorable factors. The adipic acid market warmed up. As of January 26th, the average price of adipic acid in the market rose to 7700-7900 yuan/ton, with a price increase of over 500 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month, an increase of over 7%.
The analyst of Shengyi Society’s adipic acid market believes that the rise in this round of adipic acid market is mainly driven by the stocking market. After the Spring Festival, the adipic acid market will continue to rise and face pressure in the future, and may usher in a weak decline.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from January 19th to 23rd, the domestic BDO price remained stable at 7357 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of 12.41% year-on-year. Both supply and demand have increased, but the gap between supply and demand has widened. The atmosphere of downstream Spring Festival stocking is average, with inventory digestion or urgent contract follow-up. Some holding manufacturers are cautious and bearish in their trading, with a focus on shipment mentality, while the domestic BDO market is mainly on a wait-and-see approach.
In terms of supply and equipment, the second phase of the Lanshan Tunhe plant has been operating stably since its restart, while the Sichuan plant has been producing products after its restart. This has led to an increase in market supply and weakened support on the supply side. The supply side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market has seen an increase, with smooth shipments from production enterprises and temporary supply shortages. Due to the orderly use of electricity in Inner Mongolia, supply has contracted, and some power plants in Shaanxi and Ningxia have malfunctioned, resulting in a decrease in the operation of calcium carbide furnaces and a tightening of market supply. Raw material methanol: The methanol market is fluctuating and consolidating. As of 10:00 am on January 23, the reference price for domestic methanol in Taicang is 2260 yuan/ton. The raw material calcium carbide market has risen, while the methanol market has fluctuated and consolidated, resulting in a mixed impact on BDO costs.
On the demand side, downstream PTMEG and PBAT have seen an increase in production, but the increase in demand is not as significant as the increase in supply, leading to a widening gap between supply and demand in the industry. The impact of BDO demand is mixed.
In the future, it is predicted that the Sichuan plant will increase its load and the Wanhua plant will restart and increase its production capacity, resulting in an increase in supply; GBL-NMP production has increased, with little fluctuation in other industries and an increase in demand; The narrow range consolidation of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol still puts pressure on the BDO industry to incur losses. Business Society BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will mainly focus on observation and consolidation.

Recently, the price of acetic anhydride has been running strongly
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 20th, the price of acetic anhydride was 4622.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.31% compared to the price of 4307.50 yuan/ton on January 11th. In mid January, the price of acetic acid continued to rise, with strong cost support for acetic anhydride. The recovery of acetic anhydride maintenance equipment on the supply side was slow, and the market supply was tight. The manufacturer’s quotation increased significantly, and downstream demand remained stable. The support for acetic anhydride was optimistic, and the price of acetic anhydride rose strongly.
Acetic acid market continues to rise
According to the Business Society Acetic Acid Commodity Market Analysis System, from January 11th to 20th, the price of acetic acid increased from 2806.67 yuan/ton to 2903.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.444%. The concentrated maintenance or load reduction of acetic acid plants has led to a decrease in market supply, low inventory from manufacturers, strong intention to raise prices, stable downstream demand support, and optimistic market sentiment. Acetic acid prices continue to rise, and the cost side provides favorable support for acetic anhydride.
outlook for the future market
The acetic acid analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the price of raw material acetic acid is relatively strong, and the market sentiment of acetic anhydride is optimistic. There is not much pressure on the acetic anhydride market on the supply side, and manufacturers’ quotations remain high and firm. Downstream demand follows suit, and the overall fundamentals of acetic anhydride are improving. It is expected that the acetic anhydride market will continue to operate strongly in the later stage, and specific attention will be paid to changes in the upstream market.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of pure benzene in the Shandong region has risen this week. On Monday, the price of pure benzene was 5303.33 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 5476.67 yuan/ton, with a 3.27% increase in price during the week.
2、 Market analysis
Pure benzene: The market price of pure benzene in Shandong has risen this week. Yesterday, international crude oil futures experienced a sharp decline, and the market sentiment was bearish. The overall buying momentum of Shandong Refinery was weak, and trading was cautious. The price of Huadong pure benzene remained stagnant and consolidated, with a slight decline; Shandong’s local refineries are stabilizing their prices today.
This week, Sinopec’s price has increased by 200 yuan/ton to 5500 yuan/ton.
Downstream aspects
3、 Future forecast
Crude oil futures: On January 15th, international crude oil futures fell sharply. The settlement price of the March WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $59.08 per barrel, a decrease of $2.80 or 4.5%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for March was $63.76 per barrel, a decrease of $2.76 or 4.1%.
On January 15th, FOB Korea fell by $8 to $699 per ton, CFR China fell by $6 to $701 per ton, FOB Rotterdam fell by $10 to $797 per ton, and FOB USG fell by $1 to $285 per gallon.
Overall expectation: The short-term pure benzene market is weak and volatile, with cautious trading. Observe the cost and demand side news. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in pure benzene and downstream equipment dynamics and demand on the price of pure benzene.

According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from January 1 to January 15, 2026, the domestic butadiene market showed a significant upward trend, with prices rising from 8333.33 yuan/ton to 9483.33 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 13.8%. The overall market has fluctuated and strengthened this cycle, with a scarcity of low-priced goods, a strong attitude of suppliers to make offers, and stable support from downstream demand. Multiple factors have jointly driven up prices. The following provides a detailed analysis from three dimensions: cost, supply, and demand.
Cost wise: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the international crude oil prices have fluctuated and risen this cycle, providing solid cost support for the butadiene industry chain. The escalation of geopolitical conflicts and market concerns about the stability of global energy supply, coupled with marginal improvements in demand expectations, have driven up crude oil prices. Although there have been periodic fluctuations in the price of naphtha in this cycle, it has remained relatively high overall, laying the foundation for the upward trend of butadiene prices.
Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is 9550 yuan/ton.
Demand side: As the core downstream of butadiene, the butadiene rubber industry has been operating at a high level this cycle, with stable procurement demand, providing solid fundamental support for the butadiene market. In terms of production, the utilization rate of domestic Gaoshun Shunding rubber production capacity continues to rise. In early January, the utilization rate reached 79.15%, an increase of 1.97 percentage points compared to the previous month. The weekly output was 31800 tons, an increase of 2.55% compared to the previous month. The high load of the equipment has driven the stable release of butadiene rigid demand procurement. Despite the price increase of butadiene compressing the processing profit of butadiene rubber, the theoretical production profit of butadiene rubber this week was only 27 yuan/ton, which continued to narrow compared to the previous period. However, the industry still maintains a high willingness to operate and has strong resilience in the procurement demand for raw material butadiene.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 15th, the mainstream price of Sichuan Shunding rubber was 12100 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of Dushanzi Shunding rubber was 12600 yuan/ton.
Market forecast: Overall, the domestic butadiene market in this cycle has experienced a significant price increase due to the combined effects of cost support, tight supply, and stable demand. On the cost side, crude oil prices have stabilized and rebounded, strengthening bottom support. On the supply side, equipment maintenance, inventory clearance, and external market linkage have formed multiple benefits. On the demand side, high production of butadiene rubber has provided sustained demand, and the imbalance between supply and demand has driven the market to strengthen. In the short term, multiple butadiene units are expected to restart in late January, with supply side or marginal easing. However, due to the expected increase in exports and decrease in imports, net imports may continue to decrease, and port inventories are expected to remain low. The supplier’s price support mentality will continue. The demand side of the butadiene rubber plant is likely to maintain a high load, and although the tire industry has seasonal fluctuations in production, the demand for butadiene remains unchanged, and the butadiene market still has support. It is expected that the domestic butadiene market will maintain a high volatility pattern in the short term, and special attention should be paid to the progress of plant restart, crude oil price trends, and downstream profit transmission.

Product Name: Titanium Dioxide
Latest price on January 15th: 13900 yuan/ton.
Analysis points: On January 15th, the domestic titanium dioxide market price rose. At present, domestic demand is average, but export orders are good, overall factory inventory is not high, coupled with high raw material prices, titanium dioxide enterprises are under cost pressure, and new order quotations are firm and upward.
Prediction: It is expected that the price of titanium dioxide will remain stable in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be negotiable.

The commodity market analysis system shows that on January 12th, the spot price of lithium carbonate reached a record daily increase of 7.25%. The benchmark price of battery grade lithium carbonate in Shengyi Society was 150000 yuan/ton, an increase of 25% compared to the beginning of the year, a month on month increase of 57%, and a year-on-year increase of 90%; The benchmark price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 148000 yuan/ton, an increase of 26% from the beginning of the year, a month on month increase of 57%, and a year-on-year increase of 94%.
Short term price fluctuation factors: policy buffer zone drives demand growth
On January 9, 2026, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation jointly issued a policy clarifying that the export tax rebate for battery products will be adjusted in two stages: from April 1 to December 31, 2026, the value-added tax export rebate rate will be reduced from 9% to 6%; Starting from January 1, 2027, tax refunds will be completely cancelled, covering core varieties such as lithium-ion batteries, nickel hydrogen batteries, and all vanadium flow batteries. This policy has reserved a buffer period of nearly three months for battery companies (January March 2026), coupled with the first stage adjustment (April December) still retaining a 6% tax rebate rate. The market has formed a clear expectation of “grabbing exports”, promoting the expansion of short-term battery production scale and directly driving the short-term demand growth of lithium carbonate, which is expected to weaken the weak demand characteristics of the traditional off-season (January February).
Long term price fundamentals remain the dominant factor
1. Supply side constraints: The current operating rate of lithium salt plants is close to 90%, and the new smelting capacity is in a climbing stage. However, due to high lithium ore prices, insufficient OEM capacity, and the impact of some enterprise maintenance, the supply in January 2026 is likely to remain stable month on month, and the short-term supply growth is limited.
2. Inventory dynamic balance: Although there is a slight accumulation of lithium carbonate inventory, the scale is limited, and downstream enterprises have insufficient raw material inventory, resulting in a demand for replenishment. If the subsequent demand for export exceeds expectations, inventory may once again enter the de stocking channel, further strengthening the momentum of price increases.
3. Market sentiment and fund push: The correlation between the futures and spot prices of lithium carbonate is as high as 0.99, and speculative demand for funds has a significant impact on short-term prices. The current market has a clear logic of being bullish on lithium prices in the medium to long term, and the main contract holdings remain high.
4. Maintaining strong demand: The logic of demand growth for energy storage and new energy vehicles has not fundamentally changed, and will form a core support for lithium prices. The promotion of domestic electricity marketization reform, strong demand for conventional energy storage overseas, and expansion of global data center construction will continue to drive the growth of energy storage battery orders, which in turn will drive the demand for lithium iron phosphate cathode materials and provide stable growth for lithium carbonate consumption.
The lithium carbonate data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the adjustment policy of battery export tax rebate this time has an impact on the price of lithium carbonate. The combination of export demand and low inventory pattern caused by the policy buffer period will promote the continued strong operation of lithium carbonate prices. The 150000/ton mark may become a short-term support level. In the medium and long term, the export cost pressure brought by the cancellation of tax rebate will suppress some demand, but the rigid growth demand of energy storage and new energy vehicles, as well as the tight supply-demand balance pattern in the industry, will still form the core support for lithium prices, and the space for a significant price decline is limited.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 12800 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 12833/ton, with a price increase of 0.26%.
Domestic coconut shell activated carbon manufacturers’ prices have risen this week. The ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-13000 yuan/ton, while the price of columnar coal activated carbon with an iodine value of around 1000 yuan/ton is between 8200-9500 yuan/ton. Coconut shell activated carbon is in high demand in water treatment, air purification, sodium ion batteries and other fields. In addition, the extended shipping cycle, increased storage and environmental protection requirements have pushed up import costs, which is favorable for supporting price increases.
The main coconut producing countries in Southeast Asia have been affected by natural disasters, policy adjustments, and other factors, resulting in a shortage of coconut shell carbonization materials and a rise in coconut shell charcoal prices. Starting from January 2026, coconut shell carbonization materials will be classified as dangerous goods, resulting in a significant increase in transportation, packaging, and storage costs, which are expected to further spread to end product prices.
Prediction: Due to the tight supply of coconut shell activated carbon raw materials and increased costs in China, it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate at a high level in the short term.

Price Trends in 2025
According to data from Shengyi Society, the average market price of urea on January 1st was 1798 yuan/ton, and on December 31st it was 1725 yuan/ton. In 2025, the domestic urea market price fell by 4.08% for the whole year. The highest value of urea for the year was 1997 yuan/ton on March 31, and the lowest value for the year was 1570 yuan/ton on October 21.
Market Analysis for 2025
In 2025, the domestic urea market will experience mixed ups and downs, with fluctuations being the main trend.
Phase 1 (January March): Urea market consolidation and rise
The urea market price fell in January. The market supply is loose, and downstream demand is weak. After the Spring Festival, the demand for urea in the domestic market began to increase. The urea market price increased in February and March. During the peak season of spring plowing, there is an increase in agricultural demand and industrial demand, resulting in a positive transaction volume in the urea market.
Phase 2 (April October): Weak and declining urea market
The urea market fluctuated and declined from April to June. The urea market has sufficient supply, but inventory remains high. The demand for spring plowing is gradually slowing down, and downstream procurement is cautious. The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises has declined, and the demand for urea procurement has weakened. The price of urea accelerated its decline from July to October. The futures market is not performing well, and the spot market is following the weakening trend of the futures market. The demand for urea in autumn has entered the off-season, and the market trading atmosphere has become lighter.
Phase 3 (November December): The urea market tends to be strong and rise
In November and December, the urea futures market strengthened, and the spot market followed the strong trend of the futures market. The dual positive effects of exports and a new round of label printing have increased market optimism. The daily production of urea remains high, and supply pressure still exists. After the phosphorus composite conference, the demand for winter storage of fertilizers began to advance, downstream raw material procurement demand increased, and the market trading atmosphere improved.
According to the K-bar chart of 2025, it can be seen that the maximum annual increase in urea in 2025 was in February, with an increase of 8.63%. The largest decline of the year was in April, with a decrease of 6.02%.
Market forecast after 2026
supply situation
In 2025, China’s urea production capacity and output reached a new high. The urea production capacity is expected to reach 75.19 million tons by 2025, with an annual increase of 6.6 million tons. The total production is expected to reach 71 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%. The increase in production is mainly due to the expansion of production capacity and the improvement of operating rates.
The urea production capacity is expected to reach 88.06 million tons by 2026. The newly added production capacity is mainly concentrated in the field of coal to urea, while gas to urea production is limited by natural gas supply and cost pressures, resulting in insufficient expansion power. The urea production is expected to be around 74.85 million tons in 2026, showing an overall growth trend, and high inventory has become the norm in the urea industry. It is expected that the industry’s average operating rate will remain above 80% by 2026, with a coal to urea operating rate as high as 89.6%. The daily production of urea is expected to exceed 220000-230000 tons during the peak season and spring plowing period, with an estimated daily output of 190000-200000 tons for the whole year.
demand situation
The expected demand for urea in China in 2025 is 65.5 million tons, an increase of about 1 million tons compared to last year.

Agricultural demand: expected to reach 42 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 1 million tons. The expected demand for agricultural fertilizers during the autumn and winter planting period is 13.646 million tons, including 6.57 million tons of nitrogen fertilizers.
Non farm demand: It is expected to reach 23.5 million tons of physical goods, which is basically the same as last year. Among them, the demand for industrial denitrification is steadily expanding, and the process of ultra-low emission transformation in industries such as thermal power, steel, and cement is accelerating, promoting the gradual replacement of liquid ammonia with urea.
The demand for urea in China is expected to be around 66 million tons by 2026. Agriculture remains the main consumer of urea, with an expected demand of 42.5 million tons and a growth rate of 4-5%. Thanks to the expansion of planting areas, the management of saline alkali land, the construction of high standard farmland, and the advantage of urea prices in China. The industrial demand is expected to be 23.5 million tons, with limited growth rate.
Import and export situation
The total import tariff quota for urea in 2025 is 3.3 million tons, with a state-owned trade quota of 2.97 million tons and a non-state-owned trade quota of 330000 tons. From January to November 2025, the total export volume of urea in China reached 4.6163 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 94.38%, setting a new historical high. The total annual output may exceed 5 million tons. In 2025, China’s urea exports will mainly be concentrated in Asia and South America, with Vietnam, India, Chile, and Malaysia being major trading partners. It is expected that the quota system will be lifted for the whole year of 2026, and the export volume is expected to continue to increase. The expected export volume of urea in 2026 is between 5-8 million tons, depending on the degree of relaxation of export policies. The import volume remains low, showing an overall pattern of “increased export volume and stable import”.
futures market
In 2025, the urea futures market as a whole showed a trend of “first suppression and then rise”, with the annual volatility narrowing to 22.45%, indicating significant policy regulation effects. The policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices suppresses market volatility, resulting in a 10.69 percentage point decrease in futures volatility compared to 2024. The urea futures market in 2026 is expected to show a trend of “rising first, then falling, and fluctuating within a certain range”. The main contract price is expected to fluctuate between 1550-1950 yuan/ton.
Summary and Outlook
In 2026, China’s urea market is expected to show a trend of “rising first, then falling, and fluctuating within a certain range”, with prices possibly fluctuating between 1500-2000 yuan/ton throughout the year. Production capacity continues to expand significantly, agricultural demand is steadily increasing, industrial demand is weak, and exports have become a key variable. The adjustment of export policy quotas is the greatest uncertainty, and policy regulation has a suppressive effect on market fluctuations. Overall, market fluctuations are greatly influenced by policies and supply and demand. It is recommended to closely monitor export policies and price trends.