According to the commodity analysis system, the domestic maleic anhydride market rebounded after a decline in November and then fell back at the end of the month. As of November 29th, the average quoted price of maleic anhydride was 7110.00 yuan/ton (including tax), a decrease of 2.76% from 7312.00 yuan/ton on November 1st.

On November 29th, the commodity index of maleic anhydride was 66.98, a decrease of 0.47 points from yesterday, a decrease of 59.75% from the highest point in the cycle of 166.43 points (2021-12-15), and an increase of 30.87% from the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

The downward trend of crude oil fluctuations provides limited support for the domestic maleic anhydride market

In November, the international crude oil price trend declined. As of the end of the month, the settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $76.41 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $81.47 per barrel. The November crude oil price fell by 5.69%. Firstly, the economic data is poor, and the news is bearish for the oil price market. There are still concerns about inflation levels in the United States, and the Federal Reserve has indicated that interest rates may continue to rise in the future. The US dollar is rising, putting pressure on prices of commodities such as crude oil and gold priced in US dollars; The multiple economic data released by the United States have made the market bearish about the future demand outlook, leading to a decrease in crude oil prices. Secondly, the supply tension caused by the situation in the Middle East has been alleviated, as the seasonal decrease in internal demand in the region has led to an increase in its export share; The peak oil season in North America and Europe has ended, and demand has declined, suppressing the crude oil market. Thirdly, the increase in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, coupled with market concerns about demand in the Asian region and negative factors, resulting in a decline in crude oil prices and limited support for the domestic maleic anhydride market.

Hydrogenated benzene market falls, n-butane market fluctuates and rises

On the upstream side, the overall hydrogenation benzene market declined in November. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China was 7833.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 7366.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decrease of 5.96%. Crude oil and styrene prices have fallen, while the pure benzene market is under pressure and declining. The mainstream market for hydrogenated benzene is following suit. As of the 29th, the mainstream price range for hydrogenated benzene in Shandong region is between 6950 to 7050 yuan/ton, with an average price of 7000 yuan/ton. In November, the market for n-butane fluctuated and rose, with prices in Shandong around 5450-5550 yuan/ton as of November 29th.

The downward trend of unsaturated resin market has limited support for the domestic maleic anhydride market

In November, the main raw material styrene in the downstream unsaturated resin market of maleic anhydride overall declined, and the maleic anhydride market overall declined. The cost support for resin was limited, and the downstream demand for resin procurement was limited. Many merchants were actively shipping, resulting in an overall decline in the unsaturated resin market.

Maleic anhydride product analysts believe that the current upstream hydrogenated benzene market for maleic anhydride has fallen, and the cost support for maleic anhydride is limited; The downstream unsaturated resin market is weak, with limited procurement and limited new orders from maleic anhydride factories. The fundamentals are weak, and factories are stabilizing their shipments. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

Price trend

In November, the domestic ABS market trend tended to narrow consolidation, with spot prices of various brands stabilizing slightly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 1st, the average price of ABS sample products was 11137.50 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+0.11% compared to the average price level in early November.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: In November, the domestic ABS industry maintained a high load, with an average monthly operating rate of 75%, a narrow increase compared to the previous period. The production of the enterprise is stable, and the new equipment of Yinglishi Benling will be put into operation within the month, resulting in a steady increase in inventory. The on-site supply of goods is abundant, and the company’s losses continue. The supply pressure is relatively high, and the supply side continues to drag the spot market.

In terms of raw materials: In November, the three upstream ABS materials showed mixed fluctuations, with the acrylonitrile market rising first and then falling. The price of raw materials fluctuated slightly and rose, while the cost support for acrylonitrile slightly strengthened; The main downstream operations are stable; The load of acrylonitrile units has slightly decreased, and there is basically no pressure on the supply and demand side. The acrylonitrile market is supported by urgent inquiries, and prices have stabilized at high levels.

The domestic butadiene market fell at the end of the month after a stalemate in November. In the early stage, there was equipment maintenance in the northern region, causing a contraction in the market’s spot supply and a rebound in merchant quotations. In the second half of the month, some devices will restart and the market will be flooded with goods. The frequent news of parking and load reduction by terminal enterprises has increased the drag on demand, hindered transactions in the butadiene market, and lowered the focus of the market.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the market price of styrene gradually declined in November. The main reason for the decline is that international oil prices have been affected by Russia’s tariff policies and OPEC’s production reduction, resulting in weakened cost support. At present, the supply and demand of styrene are deadlocked, and transactions are slow. It is expected that the styrene market will experience short-term fluctuations and decline.

In terms of demand: This month, downstream factories of ABS, including the main terminal home appliance industry, showed average stocking enthusiasm and overall focused on digesting existing inventory. The operation of enterprises tends to maintain production, making it difficult for demand to increase, and the impact on price trends is not significant.

Future Market Forecast

The overall performance of ABS upstream materials in November was poor, with weak support for the cost side of ABS. The construction of petrochemical plants has generally maintained its early stage, and supply pressure continues. The demand side consumption is poor, and merchants are often bearish about the future market. It is expected that the supply-demand contradiction pattern of ABS market will be difficult to change in the short term, and may maintain a weak consolidation trend.

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the toluene market continued to decline in November, but the decline narrowed compared to October. On November 1st, the benchmark price of toluene was 6900 yuan/ton, and on November 30th, it was 6660 yuan/ton. The decline in November was 3.48%, which is narrower than the 15.23% decline in October.

Crude oil has slightly decreased overall this month, and toluene cost support has weakened

In November, international crude oil prices continued to fluctuate and fall, weakening support for the cost of toluene. As of November 30th, the WTI01 contract closed at $75.60 per barrel, with a settlement of $75.96 per barrel; The Brent 02 contract closed at $80.37 per barrel and settled at $80.86 per barrel.

Slight increase in demand support for toluene in the production of xylene

In November, the price trend of para xylene declined. As of the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of para xylene was 8300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.60% from the initial price of 8700 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.49%. In November, the supply of xylene increased, and the domestic PX operating rate rose to over 80%. A 750000 ton unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical was restarted, but some units were still undergoing maintenance, resulting in an increase in spot prices. The international crude oil price trend in November declined, and PX external prices fell due to this impact. As of the 28th, the closing price in Asia was 961-963 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 986-988 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has slightly increased. Overall, the operating rate of xylene plants in the Asian region has risen to nearly 80%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region has increased, and the domestic xylene market prices have declined due to the impact of lower crude oil prices.

Domestic mixed blending demand enters the off-season and toluene demand support weakens

Since the fourth quarter, the domestic mixed blending market has entered a off-season, with weak downstream inquiries, and the demand for toluene mixed blending continues to weaken. As of late November, the operating capacity of refineries nationwide has slightly declined to around 640%; The gasoline production of independent refineries has slightly decreased by 12000 tons compared to the previous period.

TDI started construction in November and remained stable, providing essential support for toluene demand

In November, the TDI market was weak and fluctuated downward, with little change in factory equipment during the month. TDI spot filling remained slow, and suppliers showed a strong intention to support the market. The trade market has raised prices several times according to the guidance of supplier information, but downstream demand has performed poorly. Purchasing in the market is mostly done according to demand, and the trading atmosphere is light. The confidence in the trade market is insufficient, and the shipment of holders is not smooth, resulting in a continuous decline in TDI prices.

The impact of toluene on the external market and supply is biased towards empty space

On the one hand, since the fourth quarter, the demand for mixed blending in North America has continued to decline, the interest rate spread between Asia and the United States has severely shrunk, and the price of toluene in Asia has fallen. As of November 29, December, the CFR China LC90 day toluene price was between 814-816 US dollars/ton; On the other hand, domestic toluene production has slightly increased and port inventory pressure has increased. As of November 23, the domestic production of toluene has slightly increased to around 7.2%; The inventory of toluene in East China is 43000 tons, and the inventory of toluene in South China is 11000 tons, a significant increase from early November.

Market forecast: According to toluene analysts from Business Society, international crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and there is still support for the cost of toluene; The supply of toluene increased in November; The demand for downstream mixed production has decreased, and industries such as PX and TDI have maintained basic demand support; In summary, it is expected that the toluene market will experience a narrow consolidation in the short term.

Price trend

In November, the domestic PA6 market fluctuated and some spot prices were narrowly reduced. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of November 30th, the domestic benchmark price of PA6 mixture was 14462.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.43% from the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

From the above chart, it can be seen that the market price of caprolactam increased in November. Although the price of raw material pure benzene has been affected by the decline in international crude oil, the cost support of caprolactam has weakened. However, the maintenance of production line equipment in the caprolactam industry is concentrated, leading to a reduction in market supply. Downstream procurement is on demand, and the demand side is relatively stable. In the future, the supply of caprolactam is showing a rebound trend, and it is expected that the price increase of caprolactam may narrow in the short term.

In terms of supply:

In November, there was a narrow adjustment in the load of PA6 production enterprises, with an average operating rate of over 74% in the interval. The market supply has remained almost unchanged compared to the previous period, and there is ample supply of goods on the market. The inventory level is still not high, and there is no significant increase in supplier pressure. The support for PA6 spot goods still exists.

In terms of demand: Downstream, the load of the weaving and spinning industries has fluctuated slightly and remained stable, with an average load position of around 66% and 81%, respectively. The willingness of terminal enterprises to stock up in mid month is average, and their overall acceptance of high priced goods is not good. Trading is concentrated near maintaining production demand, with replenishment prices mostly centered around the low-end, and overall support for the demand side of PA6 slicing is average.

Future Market Forecast

The PA6 market experienced a narrow decline in November. The price of caprolactam has increased, and the cost support for PA6 has increased. The load of domestic polymerization plants is almost horizontal, and the inventory position remains low, indicating a strong willingness of polymerization plants to raise prices. The demand side is cautious in purchasing goods, and market trading tends towards the low-end. It is expected that the PA6 market will continue to consolidate in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the mainstream ex factory price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate, including tax, was 7420.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. At the end of the month, the mainstream ex factory price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate, including tax, was 7550.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.75%. The current price has dropped by 18.16% year-on-year.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate increased in November. From the above chart, it can be seen that last month’s potassium carbonate market was mainly dominated by single orders, but this month’s market rebounded, rising for four consecutive weeks. The raw material potassium chloride fluctuated and rose, with good cost support. Potassium carbonate followed the rise in cost and the market continued to rise. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream ex factory quotation range for industrial grade potassium carbonate is around 7300-7500 yuan/ton recently (for reference only), and the quotation varies depending on the procurement situation.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall trend of potassium chloride market in November was fluctuating and rising. As of the end of the month. The self pickup price of 62% Russian white potassium in border trade is around 2900 yuan/ton. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge have increased, creating a favorable market atmosphere. Business Society’s potassium chloride analyst believes that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly increase in the short term.

At present, the domestic potassium chloride market is on the rise, with good cost support. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to be wait-and-see.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, as of November 28th, the average price of PMMA for general transparent grade premium products in China was 14566.67 yuan/ton. PMMA prices were mainly weak in October, with an overall decrease of 0.23% in November. Currently, prices remain around 14600 yuan/ton, with downstream rigid demand procurement being the main focus. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, and the negotiation atmosphere is flat.

In November, the price of PMMA, a commonly used transparent premium product in China, remained stable and weak, with a 0.23% decrease in price compared to the same period last month. The market negotiation atmosphere was average, and downstream demand was insufficient, with on-demand procurement as the main focus and weak willingness to stock up. Currently, the mainstream manufacturer’s quotation range is still around 14600 yuan/ton. The operating rate is stable, and the overall market supply and demand is balanced. Manufacturers are offering discounts and taking orders, while downstream suppliers are in urgent need of procurement, Enterprise quotation: Shanghai Hongqi Plasticization Technology Co., Ltd. 14800 yuan/ton.

Rubber Index: On November 27th, the rubber index was 668 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 36.98% from the highest point in the cycle of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 26.52% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

Business Society PMMA analysts believe that in the short term, PMMA will mainly maintain stable operation, with mainstream prices maintained at around 14600 yuan/ton.

This week, the lead market (11.17-11.24) fluctuated downward, with the average price in the domestic market at 16665 yuan/ton last weekend and 16365 yuan/ton this weekend, a decrease of 1.8%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar indicates the magnitude of the rise and fall. The recent market trend has been strong, with the lead ingot market rising for 10 consecutive weeks before entering October and experiencing mixed gains and losses.

In terms of the futures market, the Shanghai lead market experienced a broad decline this week, with long funds leaving the market. The overall lead price fell from a high level, and LME lead ingot inventories continued to rise, putting pressure on lead prices. From the perspective of supply and demand, the operating rate of primary lead has slightly increased this week, indicating an expected increase in primary lead supply. The price of waste batteries in the field of recycled lead remains high, affecting the enthusiasm of downstream enterprises for recycling. Currently, the operating rate of recycled lead enterprises has significantly declined. The price of recycling used batteries has risen to a nearly 5-year high, and it is difficult for the market price to fall in the short term. Therefore, the market expects that the supply of recycled lead in the near future will be tight and difficult to change. In terms of demand, the downstream industry has shown a more obvious performance in the off-season, while the demand for batteries is relatively stable. The demand for electric bicycles continues to decline, and overall demand remains weak. With the continuous rise of spot prices, the enthusiasm for downstream entry into the market has further decreased. Recently, the overall market trading has been relatively light, mainly focusing on long-term cooperative orders. Overall, with the departure of bulls, the recent trend of lead prices has returned to the fundamentals, and it is expected that the industry will continue to maintain a weak trend in the off-season.

On November 26th, the non-ferrous index was at 1090 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.13% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 79.57% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 47th week of 2023 (11.20-11.24), there were a total of 6 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were dysprosium oxide (4.17%), dysprosium metal (3.06%), and dysprosium ferroalloy (3.04%). There are a total of 13 products that have experienced a month on month decline, with nickel (-4.28%), cobalt (-3.87%), and tin (-3.49%) being the top three products with the largest decline. The average increase and decrease this week is -0.84%.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of caustic soda has remained stable this week. The average market price in Shandong from the beginning of the week to the weekend was 836 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.72% compared to the same period last year. On November 23, the chlor alkali index was 1047 points, an increase of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 50.80% from the highest point in the cycle of 2128 points (2021-10-24), and an increase of 47.05% from the lowest point of 712 points on January 5, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic caustic soda prices have remained stable this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 780-850 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 830-950 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda. This week, the overall price of caustic soda has remained stable with minor fluctuations, and the production of caustic soda has increased slightly. Downstream purchases are still more on demand, and the purchasing enthusiasm is average.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 46th week of 2023 (11.13-11.17), there were a total of 3 products that rose, 1 product that fell, and 3 products that rose or fell to 0 on the chlor alkali industry price list. The main rising commodities include: light soda ash (2.38%), baking soda (0.58%), and caustic soda flakes (0.09%); The main commodities falling are PVC (-0.41%). The average increase and decrease this week is 0.38%.

Analysts from Business Society believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been consolidating this week, with an increase in caustic soda production. Downstream alumina will be replenished as needed in the near future, and it is expected that caustic soda will continue to consolidate and operate in the future, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price trend of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China has slightly declined this week. As of the 23rd, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 11116.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.60% compared to the price of 11183.33 yuan/ton on the 17th, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.91%.

Supply side: The domestic price of hydrofluoric acid has slightly declined this week, with the mainstream price discussed in various regions of the country ranging from 11100 to 11500 yuan/ton. Recently, some devices have been shut down for sale, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has not changed much. The order situation for hydrofluoric acid from manufacturers is normal, with anhydrous hydrofluoric acid starting at around 60%. Some manufacturers have inventory backlog, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has slightly decreased.

Cost side: The price trend of domestic fluorite is stable. As of the weekend, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3700 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the beginning of the week’s price of 3700 yuan/ton. The current situation of the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises remains low. The main reason is the tension in upstream mining, with some areas experiencing mining accidents. Fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and some mines are undergoing safety hazard inspections, The difficulty of starting a fluorite mine has increased. With the decrease of temperature and the increase of rain and snow weather in the northern region, fluorite production is limited. However, there has been strong resistance towards high priced fluorite in the downstream recently, and the procurement situation is average. The market price of hydrofluoric acid is low.

This week, the price trend of sulfuric acid market is temporarily stable. As of the 23rd, the average price of domestic sulfuric acid is 298 yuan/ton. The upstream sulfur market of sulfuric acid is on the rise, and there is a certain increase in costs. Downstream customers of sulfuric acid have a general enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid, and the price trend of sulfuric acid has remained stable this week. However, the decline in the domestic hydrofluoric acid market is not significant due to this impact.

On the demand side: The market trend of refrigerant products downstream of the terminal is temporarily stable, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry remains low. The procurement of raw materials is not active, and the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high. Downstream procurement just needs to follow up, and some enterprises’ quotas are digested in advance. The monthly average quantity of remaining quotas is relatively small, and the price trend of R22 is mainly declining. The domestic R134a manufacturers are operating at low loads, but the actual high-end offers have fallen, and the purchasing atmosphere has cooled. Currently, the market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 26000-28000 yuan/ton. The demand in the refrigerant industry during the off-season is insufficient, and transactions are relatively flat. The refrigerant industry has maintained a sluggish start, and demand is poor, making it difficult for the hydrofluoric acid market to improve.

Future forecast: The market trend of upstream raw material fluorite is stable in the near future, and the price of sulfuric acid may rise; The market operating rate of the downstream refrigerant industry remains at a low level, and there is a lack of enthusiasm for purchasing hydrofluoric acid. In the short term, hydrofluoric acid prices remain low and volatile.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the mixed xylene market weakened this week (11.13-11.21). On November 21st, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.79% from last Monday’s 7250 yuan/ton.

Asia US Arbitrage Space Narrows, Xylene External Market Price Decreases

Since the fourth quarter, the demand for mixed blending in North America has continued to decline, the Asia US interest rate gap has severely shrunk, and the prices of toluene in Asia have stabilized at low levels. As of November 21, the prices of isomeric grade xylene in Asia were between $873 and $874 per ton.

Port inventory increases, xylene supply pressure increases

The inventory of mixed xylene ports has increased compared to the previous period, putting pressure on the mixed xylene market. It is understood that as of November 16th, the total inventory of xylene in East and South China was 26000 tons, a significant increase from 19500 tons in mid November.

Low international crude oil price consolidation, weak cost support for xylene

This week (11.13-11.21), international crude oil prices have generally stabilized at a low level, with weak support for xylene costs. As of November 21, the WTI01 contract closed at $77.81 per barrel, with a settlement of 77.77 yuan per barrel; The Brent 01 contract closed at $82.51 per barrel and settled at $82.48 per barrel.

PX starts to stabilize xylene and obtain just needed support

The domestic supply of xylene is relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 70%. However, there has been little change in spot supply during the maintenance of some xylene units. Recently, the trend of international crude oil prices has declined, and PX external prices have been affected by this. As of the 16th, the closing prices in Asia were 997 999 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1022 1024 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX devices in Asia has been mainly fluctuating. Overall, the operating rate of xylene devices in the Asian region is around 70%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region has not changed much, and the domestic xylene market price trend is temporarily stable.

Weak market for phthalic anhydride, weak demand support for xylene

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride units is stable, with normal shipments of ortho phthalic anhydride starting from Tongling, Anhui. The 100000 ton phthalic anhydride unit of Xinyang Group is operating stably, and Shandong Hongxin phthalic anhydride is operating normally. Currently, the operating rate of domestic phthalic anhydride is maintaining over 60%, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is relatively sufficient. In addition, the production of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is normal, and the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has fallen, which has correspondingly impacted the ortho phthalic anhydride market. Recently, downstream procurement has not been active, Some manufacturers of phthalic anhydride have lowered their factory prices, resulting in a sluggish market for phthalic anhydride.

Small fluctuations in the domestic mixed blending market, weak support for xylene demand

Since the fourth quarter, the domestic mixed blending market has entered a low season, and downstream inquiries have been light. The demand for xylene mixed blending continues to weaken. As of November 16th, around 70% of refineries nationwide have started operating; The gasoline production of independent refineries has slightly decreased by 3000 tons compared to the previous period.

Future forecast: Currently, international crude oil prices have been consolidating at a low level in the near future, and the cost of xylene is at a low level; Downstream mixing and other industries have weak demand, coupled with a slight increase in xylene port inventory, and it is expected that the xylene market will experience a weak consolidation in the short term