According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market has remained stable this week. As of the weekend, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 4060 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 4060 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.58%.

This week, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market has remained stable, with stable operation of domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers. Recently, the supply of goods on site has been normal, and the downstream procurement situation is still good. The price of ammonium nitrate market is mainly stable. Recently, the demand for downstream nitro compound fertilizer has been average, and the procurement of domestic downstream civil explosives industry is normal. Domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers are operating normally, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate has been stable recently. As of now, the mainstream negotiation prices in Shaanxi region are 5400-5600 yuan/ton, Shandong region is 3800-4000 yuan/ton, and Hebei region is 3900-4000 yuan/ton.

This week, the price of concentrated nitric acid in China has slightly declined. As of the weekend, the average price of nitric acid in China was 2000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.64% from the price of 2033.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Mainstream enterprises in East China offer a price range of 1900-2000 yuan/ton, while those in the North and Central China offer a price range of 1900-2100 yuan/ton. At present, the supply side of the concentrated nitric acid market has not changed much, and the cost trend has slightly decreased. The supply of the concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the market mainly relies on orders. The market transaction situation is not good, and industry insiders are mostly wait-and-see. The on-site price of nitric acid has slightly decreased, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate market is stable.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia has declined this week. As of the weekend, the price of liquid ammonia was 3220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.69% from the beginning of the week price of 3343.33 yuan/ton. The amount of ammonia released in the main production areas in the north has not changed much, and some units in Shandong have started operating steadily. The market has shown sufficient supply, and prices of large factories in Shandong and surrounding Hebei have generally slightly decreased. In addition, downstream procurement enthusiasm is poor, and there is a sharp supply-demand contradiction. Some manufacturers have lowered their factory prices. Currently, the mainstream quotation in Shandong is between 3100-3300 yuan/ton, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has not changed much due to this impact.

Recently, the downstream civil explosive industry procurement has come to an end, and the demand for nitro compound fertilizer is in the off-season. In addition, the upstream liquid ammonia price is declining, and the price of nitric acid is showing a downward trend. In terms of cost, there has been a decline. An ammonium nitrate analyst from Business Society believes that the market price of ammonium nitrate may decrease.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride slightly decreased in January. The price of potassium chloride dropped from around 3080.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2800 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 9.09% and a year-on-year decrease of 28.21%. On January 31, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 88.89, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 49.09% from the highest point in the cycle of 174.60 points (2022-06-21), and an increase of 52.60% from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-03-01 present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, mainstream domestic potassium chloride distributors have seen a significant drop in quotes this month. The monthly terminal price of potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake is around 2860 yuan/ton; At the end of the month, 62% of the port’s white potassium was around 2550 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 350 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month; At the end of the month, the self raised price of 60% Dahong particles at the port was around 2750 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 400 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month; At the end of the month, 62% of Russian white potassium in border trade was around 2450 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 350 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month. There are approximately 3.6 million tons of potassium chloride stored in the port.

From the demand side, the market price of potassium carbonate has slightly declined this month, dropping from 7510 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7400 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.46%. The end of month price has decreased by 18.46% compared to the same period last year. The factory price of potassium nitrate has slightly decreased this month, dropping from 5425 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5175 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 4.61%. The price at the end of the month has decreased by 12.47% compared to the same period last year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride has slightly declined. Agricultural demand is average, industrial demand is weakening, and downstream manufacturers are less proactive in purchasing potassium chloride.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In mid to early February, the trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate slightly and fall, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge are temporarily stable, and the market situation is average. Downstream agricultural demand is average, industrial demand weakens, and the price of potassium chloride may fluctuate and fall in the future.

In January, the domestic first level sponge titanium market was mainly weak and stable. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 31st, the benchmark price of domestic first-class sponge titanium was 51500.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -4.19% compared to the beginning of this month (53750.00 yuan/ton).

Raw material side: The market price of high slag remains high. Production enterprises are under cost pressure, and some enterprises have insufficient operating rates, leading to a shortage of spot goods in the market. It is difficult for high slag market prices to be lowered or further increased.

Import and export data: According to customs statistics, China imported 0 tons of sponge titanium in December 2023, with a cumulative import of about 133.84 tons for the year, a year-on-year decrease of 98.82%, and a decrease of about 11230.59 tons in import volume. In December 2023, China’s sponge titanium exports reached 359.3 tons, a decrease of 68.47% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 204.08%. The export volume increased by approximately 3918 tons.

Downstream end: The sponge titanium market has released production capacity too quickly, resulting in an oversupply situation. Downstream procurement is mainly based on rigid demand, and stocking sentiment is not strong. Most wait-and-see purchases are relatively cautious.

Business Society Sponge Titanium Analyst believes that currently, high costs are supporting, and some large enterprises continue to release production capacity. The sponge titanium market supply exceeds demand, and prices continue to be low. More attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

Introduction: Isobutyraldehyde, also known as 2-methylpropanal, is an organic compound with the chemical formula C4H8O. It is a colorless and transparent liquid, slightly soluble in water, and soluble in ethanol, ether, benzene, chloroform, carbon disulfide, acetone, toluene. It is mainly used to manufacture rubber vulcanization accelerators, anti-aging agents, isobutyric acid, etc.

The market situation of isobutyraldehyde fluctuates widely in 2023

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market will experience a wide range of fluctuations and increases in 2023. The average price at the beginning of the year was 6466.67 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the year was 8233.33 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 27.32%. From the price trend chart of isobutyraldehyde, it can be seen that the highest price of isobutyraldehyde in 2023 was 10400 yuan/ton in early May, and the lowest price was 6466.67 yuan/ton in early January, with a maximum annual amplitude of 60.82%.

From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that in 2023, the price of isobutyraldehyde increased more than decreased, and the market trend showed a wide range of fluctuations and upward trends. The highest increase was 21.13% in January, and the highest decrease was 9.88% in November. In January, propylene prices skyrocketed, cost support increased, downstream operating rates increased after the holiday, and isobutyraldehyde surged by 21.13%. In February, isobutyraldehyde enterprises accumulated severe inventory, with prices plummeting by 9.27%. The trading atmosphere in the market was average in March and April, with narrow fluctuations in the isobutyraldehyde market. In early May, the spot circulation of isobutyraldehyde was tight, and the supply was urgent. Under the contradiction of supply and demand, the product trend surged by 39.91%, reaching the highest point of 10400 yuan/ton for the year. Subsequently, with the resumption of production, the market for isobutyraldehyde plummeted to 7000 yuan/ton at the end of June, a decrease of 32.69%. In the third quarter, the upstream propylene market rose, and the downstream demand for new pentanediol increased. The price of isobutyraldehyde fluctuated from 7000 yuan/ton in early July to 9000 yuan/ton at the end of September, an increase of 28.57%. The demand in the paint industry weakened in the fourth quarter, and the price of isobutyraldehyde fluctuated and fell. The price dropped from 9000 yuan/ton in early October to 8233.33 yuan/ton at the end of December, a decrease of 8.52%.

How will the isobutyraldehyde market develop in 2024?

From the perspective of production capacity, data shows that the current global production of isobutyraldehyde is about 1.5 million tons. With the continuous development of the domestic chemical industry, the production capacity of isobutyraldehyde in China is also increasing. In 2017, the production of isobutyraldehyde in China was about 180000 tons, and in 2022, the production exceeded 250000 tons. The compound annual growth rate from 2017 to 2022 is about 7%. It is expected that the production of isobutyraldehyde will further increase in 2024.

From the perspective of market demand, the downstream of isobutyraldehyde is mainly neopentyl glycol. Data shows that in recent years, the overall production capacity of China’s neopentyl glycol industry has shown an upward trend, with a production capacity of approximately 520000 tons in 2022. It is expected that the demand for isobutyraldehyde will further increase in 2024.

Looking at the future: downstream demand is increasing, and the price center of isobutyraldehyde may shift upwards in 2024.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong was volatile and consolidated in January. At the beginning of the month, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1173.33 yuan/ton, and the lowest point on the 15th was 1153.33 yuan/ton. By the end of the month, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong had dropped to 1203.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.34%. The current price has dropped by 0.28% year-on-year.

formaldehyde

In January, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region fluctuated and stabilized. From the above chart, it can be seen that the formaldehyde market has had relatively small fluctuations in the past three months, and this month’s market has slightly declined before rising. As of January 29th, the mainstream market price in Shandong region is 1150-1260 yuan/ton. In January, the raw material methanol market first fell and then rose, and the price of formaldehyde basically followed the changes in methanol. However, downstream board factories had poor demand, and the atmosphere of on-site negotiations was weak, making it difficult for transactions to improve, putting pressure on formaldehyde manufacturers.

Upstream methanol situation: In December, the domestic methanol market first fell and then rose. The decline at the beginning of the month was due to an increase in domestic supply, which led to a bearish market mentality. Some methanol production enterprises lowered prices and offered discounts to ship, but the upstream inventory was high and the purchasing sentiment was average, resulting in weak methanol procurement prices. The increase after mid month is due to the limited availability of circulating spot goods in society, combined with the impact of weather and other factors on unloading speed. At the same time, the transportation cost from the northwest production area to the sales area market has increased, leading to a significant increase in domestic methanol prices. As supply gradually recovers, downstream receiving sentiment is average, and the market is mainly wait-and-see.

Recently, the price of raw material methanol has slightly rebounded, and cost support is still acceptable. However, downstream board factories have taken early leave, resulting in poor demand. Formaldehyde manufacturers have allowed profits to continue the market. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of Shengyishe predict that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly decline slightly in the near future.

Price trend

This week, the domestic ABS market continued to rise, with many spot prices of various brands increasing. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 26th, the average price of ABS sample products was 10862.50 yuan/ton, a+1.88% increase or decrease from the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Supply side: In the early stage, the domestic ABS industry saw a high level of load reduction. This week, some enterprises underwent maintenance, and the load continued to decrease. Recently, the operating rate of ABS aggregation enterprises has been lowered to around 62%, resulting in a decrease in weekly production and a decrease in inventory positions. Although the profit situation of the enterprise has not improved, there has been some improvement in supply side pressure.

In terms of raw materials, the recent trend of ABS upstream three materials is still good, with the acrylonitrile market mainly consolidating. The price of propylene, the raw material, continues to rise, providing sufficient support for the cost of acrylonitrile. In the early stage, the supply of acrylonitrile was relatively loose, and the current market is buying coldly. The pre holiday stocking volume is average, and the market is balanced between long and short positions, with prices mainly being sideways.

This week, the domestic butadiene market remained stable and relatively strong. Recently, the prices of foreign and domestic suppliers have shown strong performance, supporting the mentality of merchants to offer. In addition, as the holiday approaches, downstream companies are gradually restocking and stocking up before the holiday, and transactions have followed up, which has boosted the market. However, the downstream product market is not performing well, with some industries still showing inverted profits. The butadiene market is mainly consolidating and observing.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the market price of styrene has risen this week. The price of raw material pure benzene continues to rise, with strong cost support. The increase in maintenance of styrene units has led to a contraction in market supply. The transaction in the market is still good, and the market continues to rise.

In terms of demand: This week, the main ABS terminals, including downstream factories in the home appliance industry, showed average stocking enthusiasm. The main logic revolved around buying in essential demand and digesting inventory. As the holiday approaches, downstream enterprises have increased their holiday arrangements, and their procurement operations tend to be weak and in need of maintaining production. The midstream ships at high prices, with average spot circulation, and the demand side helps stabilize the market.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the overall performance of ABS upstream materials has been relatively strong, providing increased support for the cost side of ABS. The petrochemical plant has seen a narrow decline in production, further reducing supply pressure. On the demand side, consumption is average, and merchants are reporting higher due to supply contraction and upstream rise. The trading in the future market may gradually weaken, but it is expected that the ABS market will be stronger in the short term due to various positive factors.

According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, starting from mid January, terminal demand has been weak, and the hydrogen peroxide market has been continuously declining. On January 15th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 823 yuan/ton. On January 24th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 793 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.64%.

Poor terminal demand, continued weak and declining hydrogen peroxide market

Since mid January, the terminal paper market has continued to decline, and the demand for purchasing hydrogen peroxide in the paper and printing industry has declined. Hydrogen peroxide manufacturers lack confidence in raising prices, and the market is moving slowly. The domestic hydrogen peroxide market has been mainly weak and declining, and the market has been declining. As of January 24th, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is around 780 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 40 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation in Anhui region is 880 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of 40 yuan/ton.

Li Bing, a chemical analyst at Business Society, believes that the demand in the terminal paper and printing industry is sluggish, and the hydrogen peroxide market will continue to decline weakly in the future.

An increase in the price of acetic anhydride

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of January 22, the price of acetic anhydride was 5862.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.43% compared to January 15, which was 5837.50 yuan/ton. Compared with the price of acetic anhydride on January 19 last weekend, which was 5825 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.64%, acetic anhydride equipment stopped, acetic acid supply decreased, acetic anhydride enterprises suspended production, acetic anhydride enterprises had insufficient supply, and acetic anhydride prices increased.

An increase in the price of acetic acid

According to the analysis system of the acetic acid market in Shengyishe, as of January 22, the price of acetic acid was 3250 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.56% compared to the 3200 yuan/ton price on January 15. Several acetic acid manufacturers in Ningxia, Shandong, and Hebei have experienced equipment shutdowns or load reductions, resulting in a tightening of acetic acid supply and an increase in acetic acid prices.

Future prospects

Business Society Acetic Anhydride Data Analyst believes that the production of acetic acid enterprises has decreased, the supply of acetic acid has tightened, the price of acetic acid has increased, and the cost of acetic anhydride has increased. The acetic anhydride equipment has been shut down, resulting in a decrease in the supply of acetic anhydride. Overall, the tight supply of acetic anhydride has led to an increase in costs, and it is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will rise in the future.

Product name: Sulfuric acid

Latest price (January 22): 187.50 yuan/ton

On January 22nd, the domestic sulfuric acid market price dropped significantly, with a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to January 19th, a decrease of 9.64%, and a year-on-year decrease of 30.98%. The upstream sulfur market has recently experienced a significant decline, with insufficient cost support. The downstream ammonium phosphate market has slightly declined, and downstream customers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. Multiple bearish factors led to a sharp decline in the sulfuric acid market.

It is expected that the domestic sulfuric acid market price will slightly decline in the future, with an average market price of around 170 yuan/ton.

The liquid epoxy resin market is showing signs of fatigue, with prices continuing to decline. On January 19th, the market quoted factory price of purified water hovered between 12700 and 13000 yuan, and the quoted price in Shandong region was as low as 12600 to 12900 yuan/ton of purified water.

The raw material side experienced narrow fluctuations, and the bisphenol A market saw a narrow upward trend. The quoted price was around 9400-9550 yuan/ton. On Tuesday, due to the strong performance of pure benzene, the price of phenolic ketones rose, and under market pressure, the bisphenol A market rose. On Monday, the bidding for Zhejiang Petrochemical was suspended, and the starting price for enterprise premium product delivery was 9300 yuan/ton. The second round of bidding reached 9350 yuan/ton. The quotation for epichlorohydrin is around 8100-8200 yuan/ton. However, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has not shown signs of improvement, leading to an increasingly stagnant trading atmosphere on the exchange. It is currently unclear when the sluggish state of the liquid epoxy resin market will usher in a turning point.