According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fluctuated and rose this week (5.13-5.20), with an average market price of 259810 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week and 78810 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, an increase of 7.31%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have been continuously rising for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, prices have fallen by 11.35% in a single month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

Macro: The US non farm payroll data in April fell short of expectations, and the softening of consumer prices in April boosted market expectations. The Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in September this year, with two cuts throughout the year, and the market has regained its expectation of a rate cut. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States announced on Thursday exceeded expectations and rebounded, reaching a new high since August 2023. The US dollar index closed last Friday with a weekly decline of 0.79%. The US dollar weakened, and the non-ferrous metal sector rebounded.

Supply and demand: The situation of tight supply at the mining end still exists, and currently, smelting enterprises in the main production areas are maintaining normal production. The overall domestic supply is relatively stable, and the overall performance of the supply side is relatively stable. In terms of demand, with the rise of tin prices, the enthusiasm for downstream procurement in the market is relatively low. Currently, it still maintains a basic demand for replenishment, and the overall market trading performance is average. However, solder companies have been steadily improving in recent times, and future demand expectations are still acceptable. Overall, the supply is expected to be stable and the demand is expected to improve.

Overall, the macro level has performed well recently, with the nonferrous metal market generally recovering. Tin is more susceptible to macro level influences, and its recent trend is relatively strong. But as tin prices do not count as rising, high prices have suppressed actual downstream demand. Currently, downstream procurement intentions are more wait-and-see, and the overall situation remains to replenish inventory as needed. Driven by macro positive factors, there is room for upward movement in the tin market, but the downstream is more cautious and expected to maintain stable, medium, and strong operations in the short term.

Industry data:

On May 19th, the base metal index was 1359 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 15.90% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 111.68% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On May 19th, the non-ferrous index was 1242 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 19.25% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 104.61% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 20th week of 2024 (5.13-5.17), there were a total of 12 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. Among them, there were 4 commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 16% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase are antimony (12.80%), tin (5.35%), and aluminum oxide (5.07%). There are a total of 8 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with a decline are dysprosium oxide (-4.20%), praseodymium neodymium oxide (-1.83%), and dysprosium iron alloy (-1.69%). The average increase and decrease this week is 1.23%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the domestic polyester filament prices remained stable this week (May 13-17), with increased cost drivers. However, downstream purchasing attitudes were cautious. At present, the mainstream polyester filament factory POY (150D/48F) in Jiangsu and Zhejiang offers a price range of 7450-7650 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) offers a price range of 9000-9200 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) offers a price range of 8150-8000 yuan/ton.

In the future, the cost side is still favorable, and international crude oil futures have bottomed out and stabilized. As of May 16th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $79.23 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $83.27 per barrel. The instability of the current situation in the Middle East still has a certain positive impact on oil prices. In addition, the peak driving season in North America will stimulate gasoline demand, and the decline in US crude oil and finished oil inventories will also provide support for oil prices. It is unlikely that the oil market will continue to decline.

In the PTA market, the maintenance plan for domestic PTA devices has been basically implemented, and PTA production has decreased. In addition, downstream polyester factories have stable demand, and the overall performance of the fundamentals is still good, which has helped to slightly rebound PTA prices. As of May 17th, the average market price in East China was 5858 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.36% from the beginning of the week. Domestic PTA plants have been undergoing maintenance one after another, and the industry’s operating rate has decreased to around 73%. In the future, the 4.6 million ton PTA plant may restart next week, and there are currently no plans for other large-scale PTA plant maintenance or restart in the short term. After the maintenance and restart of the PTA device are gradually completed, it will drive the slow recovery of PTA supply, and the supply of goods will be relatively loose.

Under the weakening demand during the off-season, polyester factories have eased inventory pressure by reducing production passively and proactively. Recently, mainstream polyester factories have announced production reduction plans, but there are doubts about the implementation of polyester production reduction. The seasonal decline in terminal demand is expected, and the current downstream weaving machine operating rate is stable at around 71%. With the weakening of the textile market and the accumulation of factory inventory, the expectation for the future market is poor. In the short term, it may mainly consume its own stock, and the purchasing mentality is cautious.

Overall, analysts from Business Society believe that it is difficult to see a significant increase in downstream demand in the short term, and the fundamentals are not optimistic. However, due to increased support for raw material costs and the impact of production reduction plans by polyester factories, it is expected that the price of polyester filament may slightly increase.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of May 16th, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4700 yuan/ton. This week, the DMF price was mainly weak compared to the same period last week, with a slight decrease in price. Currently, the mainstream price is around 4700-4800 yuan/ton, and the overall market supply and demand is balanced. Enterprises mainly offer discounts and take orders, and the overall market negotiation focus is stable.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the overall market price of DMF is mainly operating in a narrow and weak range, with no significant changes compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream price range is 4700-4800 yuan/ton. Manufacturers are actively shipping, logistics are smooth, and downstream demand is insufficient. Currently, the cost side of DMF is slightly supported, and it will maintain a stable, medium, and strong operation in the near future. Downstream enterprises need to purchase and operate.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society DMF analysts believe that in the short term, the DMF market will maintain its current trend, with mainstream prices remaining at 4700-4800 yuan/ton.

Analysis: On May 15th, the liquid ammonia market in Shandong region rose. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the daily increase in the main production area of Shandong was 2.06%. The main reason is that some equipment in the northern main production area has been repaired due to malfunctions, and the contraction of the supply surface has brought benefits. On Wednesday, major factories in Shandong and surrounding Hebei and Henan provinces generally raised prices by 50-100 yuan/ton. The market has a strong atmosphere of speculation, and dealer quotes have followed suit. Downstream urea companies are gradually shutting down, and prices are linked upwards. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 3100-3300 yuan/ton.

Prediction: The shutdown of liquid ammonia enterprises in the north will continue for a period of time due to malfunctions, and the tense supply and demand atmosphere will not change. In the later stage, it may form support for the surrounding areas. Ammonia enterprises will mainly raise prices and chase up prices. In the short term, the ammonia market is prone to rise but difficult to fall, and attention should be paid to the resumption of work by ammonia enterprises in the later stage.

The performance of the domestic ethyl acrylate market in this cycle (5.7-5.14) has been relatively stagnant. As we enter mid May, market quotations have slightly declined, and bearish factors on the market remain unchanged. The ethyl acrylate market is slightly weak. As of May 14th, the benchmark price of ethyl acrylate in Shengyishe was 9362.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.13% compared to the beginning of this month (9375.00 yuan/ton).

The domestic market price of ethyl acrylate has not decreased, with a minimum value of 8600 yuan/ton. On the one hand, the recovery of market demand is slow, and on the other hand, there is insufficient supply support. Recently, the price of ethyl acrylate in China has experienced a narrow decline, showing a weak consolidation trend. The main reason is that the price has fallen to a low level, and intermediaries tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude to consider cost reasons.

Supply side:

In this cycle, the domestic market price of n-butanol remained stable with a strong trend. The ex factory price in Shandong was 7900-7950 yuan/ton, and the production of n-butanol in the market slightly declined. In addition, factory inventory remained low, leading to a tightening of spot supply in the market. The overall downstream production was stable, with primary demand procurement and active low price transactions in the market. It is expected that the domestic price of n-butanol will shift towards high-end operation next week.

The range of raw material acrylic acid market has been sorted and operated. As of May 13th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyishe was 6900.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.10% compared to the beginning of this month (6825.00 yuan/ton). The cost pressure on acrylic acid is still ongoing. Recently, production equipment has been shut down for maintenance, providing some support for the market. Some large factories have raised their listed prices, boosting bullish confidence among businesses. Holders are reluctant to sell at high prices, while downstream markets are cautious and cautious. In the short term, the market may fluctuate and consolidate.

Demand side:

In recent times, the acrylic resin market has continued to operate weakly, with overcapacity leading to market supply exceeding market demand, which still has a negative impact on prices. However, raw material prices have continued to fluctuate at low levels, with weak and stable cost support. The decline in prices supported by costs has contracted. It is expected that the weak domestic acrylic resin market will continue in the short term, with prices mainly consolidating at low levels.

In summary, it is difficult to find favorable demand for domestic ethyl acrylate production enterprises, and market players still have a bearish attitude towards the future. Analysts from Business Society predict that there may be a slight downward trend in the domestic ethyl acrylate market in the short term, but in the long run, the price increase space is still limited.

From May 1st to May 10th, 2024, the antimony ingot market in East China rose, with prices this week at 103500 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 4.02%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has been on the rise recently.

This week’s European strategic small metal antimony price situation (unit: USD/ton)

Variety/ April 29th/ May 11th/ Rise and fall

European small metal antimony/ 14450./15550./+1100

Overseas markets: Since mid April, the price of European strategic small metal antimony has continued to rise. As of May 11th, the quotation was at $15550/ton, and after the holiday, it rose by $1100/ton. The external market price continues to rise, driving up the domestic market atmosphere. Currently, the spot market has a strong bullish atmosphere.

This week, the antimony ingot market has seen a broad increase, while the European antimony ingot market has continued to rise, driving an improvement in the domestic market atmosphere. Smelters have strengthened their reluctance to sell, leading to a continuous increase in factory prices. Downstream customers have actively entered the market for inquiries. Currently, it is difficult to find low-priced goods, and the tight supply has boosted the strong price support mentality of smelting enterprises. Downstream enterprises actively entered the market for inquiries, driven by improved demand, the price of antimony ingots continued to rise this week. In the future, the supply and demand of antimony ingots in China are currently tight, and downstream demand is expected to be strong. Supported by multiple positive factors, it is expected that the domestic antimony ingot market will continue to operate strongly in the short term.

Antimony oxide: This week, the antimony oxide market continued to follow the rise of antimony ingots, with an increase range of 3000-4000 yuan/ton during the cycle. At present, it is difficult to find low-priced raw materials in the market, and downstream enterprises are actively entering the market to inquire about goods and replenish inventory. Due to the market’s reluctance to sell, it is currently difficult to find low-priced sources of goods. Under the dominant influence of the trade in policy, the expected amount of antimony used in flame retardants is improving. At present, it is difficult to find low-priced goods in the market, and the industrial chain market is operating with a strong bias.

Industry data:

On May 10th, the base metal index was 1315 points, an increase of 6 points from yesterday, a decrease of 18.63% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 104.83% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On May 10th, the non-ferrous index was 1212 points, an increase of 8 points from yesterday, a decrease of 21.20% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 99.67% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)..

According to price monitoring, in the 19th week of 2024 (5.6-5.10), there were a total of 15 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top three commodities with the highest increase were silver (4.61%), antimony (3.50%), and aluminum oxide (3.33%). There are three products that have experienced a month on month decline, with the top three products experiencing a decline being titanium concentrate (-1.30%), copper (-1.17%), and nickel (-0.43%). The average increase and decrease this week is 0.94%.

1、 Price trend

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Business Society, as of April 29th, the price of high-quality power type lithium iron phosphate is 43612 yuan/ton, and the price of energy storage type lithium iron phosphate is 42300 yuan/ton. After the holiday in May, the lithium iron phosphate market has mainly maintained stable operation, with prices maintaining stable operation and no significant fluctuations. Upstream iron phosphate prices have remained stable, while lithium carbonate prices have remained stable with a moderate to strong trend and limited increase. The cost support for lithium iron phosphate is average. Currently, the supply and demand balance of the lithium iron phosphate market is the main trend.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost: After the May Day holiday, the upstream lithium carbonate price has remained stable with a strong trend, inventory has remained high, downstream procurement enthusiasm is insufficient, and the overall market transaction atmosphere is cold. It is expected that the short-term spot price of lithium carbonate will remain stable, and the upstream iron phosphate price will remain stable with a small range of price fluctuations. It is expected that the current price trend will remain the main trend in the short term.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In summary, from the perspective of market supply and demand, the current market supply is sufficient, downstream demand is insufficient, and upstream lithium carbonate and iron phosphate prices lack upward momentum, making it difficult to boost the price of lithium iron phosphate. It is expected that in the short term, lithium iron phosphate will maintain its current trend, the price of high-quality power grade lithium iron phosphate will remain around 43612 yuan/ton, and the price of energy storage type lithium iron phosphate will remain around 42300 yuan/ton.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, on May 9, 2024, the reference market price of domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was 7550 yuan/ton. Compared with April 1 (reference price of propylene glycol was 7733 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 183 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.37%.

According to the price trend chart of propylene glycol in Shengyishe from the beginning of the year to the present, it can be seen that the domestic propylene glycol market has been in a downward trend since the beginning of the year. In late February, the propylene glycol market was briefly supported by tight supply, and then rapidly declined and continued to decline. In April, the overall propylene glycol market continued to decline weakly, and the focus of the propylene glycol market continued to decline. As of May 9th, the price of propylene glycol in the market had reached its lowest level for the year 2024.

From the annual comparison chart of propylene glycol, it can be seen that the current market price of propylene glycol has dropped to a low level in nearly four years.

Analysis of the influencing factors of the decline in the propylene glycol market in April:

In April, downstream demand for propylene glycol in China was weak, and the inquiry atmosphere in the propylene glycol market was poor, with few new transactions. Downstream users mostly restocked small orders that were just needed. In the early stage of May Day Labor Day, the propylene glycol market did not experience effective pre holiday stocking, and the overall stocking atmosphere remained weak. The overall supply and demand transmission of propylene glycol was slow, and on-site inventory was relatively loose. Therefore, insufficient demand and supply pressure were the main reasons for the gradual decline of the propylene glycol market.

Can the propylene glycol market rise against the trend in May?

Firstly, let’s take a look at the specific performance of the domestic propylene glycol market in the first week after the return of Labor Day. From the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, it can be seen that after the holiday, the performance of the domestic propylene glycol market is still weak, and the center of gravity of the propylene glycol market continues to dip downwards. The overall trading atmosphere on the market is flat, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. On May 9th, the price of propylene glycol in the market was around 7500-7600 yuan/ton, with a post holiday decline of 1.31%.

Fundamental analysis:

At present, there has been no significant improvement in downstream demand in the propylene glycol market, and the overall downstream demand still needs to be restored. In terms of supply, the overall shipment of propylene glycol in the current market is still under pressure, and the supply-demand game on the market is still ongoing. In terms of cost, the market for methanol and epoxy propane in the raw material end is operating at a high level, which brings no less cost pressure to propylene glycol. Propylene glycol factories are not willing to continue to lower prices under cost pressure, but the weak demand side cannot be ignored. Therefore, the current propylene glycol market is in a stalemate game between supply, demand, and cost, and the propylene glycol market will mostly operate weakly in May.

Technical analysis: Market prices are at a low level within the year, and there is still downside risk in May

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the current market price of propylene glycol is at a low point in one year, a low point in two years, and a low point in three years.

From the graph, it can be seen that since March 9, 2023, the propylene glycol 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started a downward trend. The current two moving averages continue to decline in the same direction. According to calculations, the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. crossing the 30 day moving average above the 7-day moving average) in the next 7 days is not high.

In summary, data analysts from Business Society believe that as we enter May, the overall supply-demand contradiction in the domestic propylene glycol market has not been effectively improved, and the market boost on both the supply and demand sides is insufficient. Currently, there is no obvious positive support in the propylene glycol market. Therefore, it is expected that there will still be some downward risk in the propylene glycol market in May, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of April 30, 2024, the domestic market price of butanone was referenced at 8466 yuan/ton. Compared with April 1, 2024 (reference price of butanone was 8033 yuan/ton), the price increased by 433 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.39%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, it can be seen that in April, the overall market situation of butanone in China showed a continuous upward trend. In early April, the butanone market returned to calm after a slight fluctuation. In the latter half of the year, the market for butanone saw a significant increase, and market prices have been continuously adjusted upwards. By the end of April, the high price of butanone in the domestic market had risen to around 8700 yuan/ton.

Analysis of the Factors Influencing the Rise of Butanone Market in April

In terms of cost: In April, the overall market situation for carbon tetrachloride after the ether end of butanone raw material continued to operate at a high level, and the support for butanone in terms of cost has always been strong.

In terms of supply: In April, some domestic butanone factories executed pre orders and mainly shipped pre order goods. Therefore, the overall supply pressure in butanone factories was relatively small, and spot circulation in some regions was tight. The supply side supported the continuous increase of butanone market prices.

In terms of demand: In April, the overall terminal demand in the butanone field improved. In the first ten days, downstream purchases of butanone were mainly for rigid needs. In the second ten days, the butanone market welcomed small-scale pre holiday stocking, and the overall demand support for butanone improved.

Market analysis of butanone

At present, the atmosphere in the butanone market is relatively mild. As the weather gets warmer, the demand in the terminal market will continue to be released. The butanone industry has a good mentality, and the butanone data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mostly operate steadily with a strong bias. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

After the holiday, the bisphenol A market showed some calmness, and the market offer on the first trading day was not clear. The trading parties had a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, with the main factories maintaining stable quotes and Lihua Yiwei Yuan continuing to list prices at 9600 yuan/ton. In terms of the market, negotiations in North China were close to 9600 yuan/ton, while negotiations in East China were between 9800-10000 yuan/ton. Short term fluctuations in the bisphenol A market were limited.

Cost support has weakened, and the domestic phenol market has limited fluctuations after the holiday. Some regions have negotiated a slight decline, with prices in the East China region at 7950-8000 yuan/ton. However, due to a slight decrease in post holiday port inventory, holders have little intention of lowering prices. However, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere among buyers, and trading in the phenol market after the holiday is limited. The mainstream market for acetone in China has slightly declined, with a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The negotiations in the East China region are between 8150-8200 yuan/ton, while those in the South China region are at 8300 yuan/ton. The demand is weak, and there is insufficient trading volume after the holiday.

The downstream epoxy resin market operates quietly, the market lacks information guidance, and the factory’s listed price remains stable. The downstream just needs to follow up, and there is little turnover. The mainstream negotiations of East China liquid resin and Mount Huangshan solid resin are both 12600-12900 yuan/ton. The downstream PC market is experiencing a weak downturn, with some regions experiencing a decrease of around 100 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday. The negotiated price for injection grade low-end materials in East China ranges from 14500 to 16500 yuan/ton. The spot market is operating weakly, and short-term business confidence is clearly lacking.

During the holiday, crude oil continued to decline, and the bisphenol A industry chain operated weakly in its first trading day. At present, there is not much fluctuation in the supply of bisphenol A, and downstream co production lines mainly digest inventory or contracts. There is currently a lack of positive support in the upstream and downstream. In the short term, we will pay attention to the trend of bisphenol A factories, and Business Society expects the bisphenol A market to adjust and operate within a certain range.