Golden September hits, epoxy propane prices hit bottom and rebounded, with prices soaring in Shandong region, with an increase of up to 160 yuan/ton. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 6th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8685.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.90% compared to the beginning of this month (8607.50 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors:

Supply side: Downstream polyether new orders increase, the shipping atmosphere of enterprises is good, releasing inventory pressure, and the focus of epoxy propane market negotiations is on the rise.

Raw material side: Recently, the price of raw material propylene has decreased and the price of liquid chlorine has increased, resulting in a situation of mixed ups and downs in the raw material side. The support for the epoxy propane market is still acceptable. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of September 6th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6938.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.43% compared to the beginning of this month (6968.25 yuan/ton).

Downstream demand side: The downstream order volume has slightly increased, but the sustainability is weak, the supply and demand transmission is not smooth, and the driving force for chasing up is not strong.

Market forecast:

Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that the current epoxy propane supply side and raw material side are supported by multiple favorable factors, and it is expected that the epoxy propane market will remain stable and strong in the short term. More attention should be paid to market news guidance.

The domestic fluorite prices have slightly declined this week, with an average price of 3400 yuan/ton as of the weekend, a decrease of 1.09% from the early week price of 3437.5 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 6.67%.

Supply side: Limited mining operations and low fluorite inventory

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, the national department needs to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of fluorite mining operation has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight, and the inventory of fluorite enterprises is low. However, the impact of imported fluorite from Mongolia on the northern fluorite market is significant, and the trend of the northern.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid demand, weak refrigerant, low operating level

Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market has fluctuated at a low level, with mainstream prices ranging from 10300 to 10800 yuan/ton negotiated in various regions of China. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market is consolidating weakly, with some units still being shut down recently. There is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid, and manufacturers have low orders for purchasing hydrofluoric acid. The overall production of hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%, which has dragged down the domestic fluorite market. Some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers purchase on demand, and downstream demand is poor. The domestic fluorite market remains weak.

The downstream refrigerant market in the terminal continues to be deadlocked due to poor demand transmission. After entering the off-season of production, market production demand weakens. In addition, refrigerant companies have poor stocking conditions and are not actively purchasing upstream products. The market for some refrigerant products has declined, and as a result, the fluorite market is weak and difficult to change.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as national defense, nuclear industry, etc., including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrode, photovoltaic panel, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the fluorite market is still supported.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production for safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. However, the downstream hydrofluoric acid market trend has declined, and the demand for downstream refrigerants has weakened. In addition, imported fluorite sources have formed a certain impact on the market, and both long and short factors have jointly affected it. Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society, believes that fluorite prices will mainly fluctuate in the later stage.

On September 3rd, the listing price of acetone in Sinopec East China was lowered by 200, with an execution of 6000 yuan/ton, and the listing price of Sinopec North China was lowered by 200, with an execution of 6000-6050 yuan/ton.

The domestic acetone market continues to bottom out, with prices in the East China market falling to 5900 yuan/ton. The market fundamentals have not changed much, but the market price has fallen to a low level. There has been an increase in inquiries from traders entering the market, and the intention of traders to lower prices in the afternoon has weakened. The offer price has temporarily stopped falling, and it is understood that the market transaction situation is average. Overnight crude oil prices have dropped significantly, and with sufficient supply in the acetone market, it is expected that the acetone market will maintain stable operation today.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of PET water bottle grade has shown a downward trend this month. As of August 30th, its average market price has been adjusted to 6767 yuan per ton.

In terms of raw material market this month, PTA prices have declined. As of August 29th, the average price of PTA in China was 5383 yuan/ton, a decrease of more than 7% from the average price of 5830 yuan/ton in the East China market on August 1st, which failed to provide effective cost support for the PET market. In terms of ethylene glycol, the price range fluctuated this month, first falling and then rising, and the current price is the same as at the beginning of the month.

Overall, PET cost support is average, market demand is weak, and trading activity has significantly decreased, leading to a further decline in the focus of PET futures and spot prices.

In terms of supply, although maintenance and restart coexist, the pressure on the supply side still exists under the expectation of new production. On the demand side, both upstream and downstream demand maintain bargain hunting purchases, and with futures listed, the industry’s wait-and-see sentiment is becoming increasingly strong.

In response to the current situation, senior analysts in the PET sector of Shengyi Society pointed out that due to insufficient cost support and relatively loose supply prospects, the PET market may continue its weak consolidation pattern in the short term. However, the actual trend still depends on the trend of the raw material side and whether subsequent maintenance can be implemented.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this week (8.19-8.23), with an average market price of 263530 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 267210 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.4%.

Recently, tin prices have fluctuated upwards. The refinery’s willingness to raise prices remains unchanged, resulting in average communication flow. In terms of spot market prices, they are still in a relatively high range, and the actual acceptance capacity is insufficient. Although some people continue to inquire about prices, most downstream enterprises are observing and observing, and the actual transaction volume is not ideal.

In the short term, the weakness of consumer terminals has not changed, and the basic pattern has not undergone substantial changes.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market fluctuated and fell in August. From August 1st to 29th, the domestic market price of aggregated MDI increased from 17616 yuan/ton to 17300 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.8% during the month and a year-on-year price drop of 1.8%.

In the first half of the month, domestic aggregated MDI prices continued to decline due to relatively high prices, a strong wait-and-see atmosphere downstream, and sluggish upstream sales, resulting in a weak and downward trend in the MDI market.

In mid month, with the consolidation and operation of MDI, the MDI market remained stable after a decline, with a clear willingness to raise prices in the upstream and on-demand procurement in the downstream. Subsequently, foreign companies were unable to reduce production due to force majeure, which boosted the news and led to a slight increase in MDI.

At the end of the month, the market demand increment was limited, and the main focus was on digesting the increase. To stimulate sales, the focus of some actual transactions has begun to shift slightly downwards.

On the supply side, Huntsman’s 470000 tons/year MDI production plant located in Rosenburg, the Netherlands, announced on August 5th local time that it was affected by the incident and was operating at low negative load. It resumed normal operation on the 13th.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The domestic pure benzene market is fluctuating upwards. As of August 29th, the benchmark price of pure benzene in Shengyi Society is 8560 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: The domestic aniline market has fluctuated and risen, with gains returning at the end of the month compared to the beginning of the month. As of August 29th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyi Society is 10125 yuan/ton. The cost support for aggregated MDI is weak.

On the demand side, downstream companies enter the market at low prices, purchase on demand, and have a clear resistance to high prices. Under the dominance of the demand side, the market is prone to decline but difficult to rise.

Market forecast: In the near future, the willingness of suppliers to ship has increased, and the focus of market transactions has shifted downwards. With limited demand growth, analysts from Business Society’s aggregated MDI predict that the domestic aggregated MDI market will be weak and follow suit.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda on August 28th was 1870 yuan/ton. On August 27th, the baking soda commodity index was 124.11, a decrease of 0.07 points from yesterday, a decrease of 47.38% from the cycle high of 235.84 points (2021-11-10), and an increase of 40.60% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running weakly, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is declining, with a factory price of around 1400-1600 yuan/ton. Due to poor downstream demand, it is expected to operate weakly in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been running weakly this week. The current average market price is 1810 yuan/ton.

Business analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been weak recently, and the upstream raw material soda ash has been weak recently. Downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. It is expected that the price of baking soda will be weak in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 27, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 7216 yuan/ton, a decrease of 717 yuan/ton or 9.03% compared to the reference price of 7933 yuan/ton on August 1.

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that from August to present (8.1-8.27), the overall market situation of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China has shown a downward trend. In early August, the n-butanol market continued to decline, downstream demand was poor, new orders were light, and the market center gradually fell. As of August 15th, the n-butanol market in Shandong region was around 7300 yuan per ton, with a decline of 7.98% in early August. In late August, due to the brief shutdown of some factories producing n-butanol, which stimulated small-scale downstream stocking, the on-site market for n-butanol saw a slight boost, with market prices increasing by around 100-150 yuan/ton. Subsequently, as the equipment resumed operation, the upward momentum of the n-butanol market was insufficient, and the market recovered to a low level with consolidation. As the end of the month approached, downstream demand for n-butanol did not improve, and the market continued to decline. As of August 27th, the market price of n-butanol was around 7100-7350 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.14% in the latter half of the year.

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Market Situation of n-Butanol

In terms of demand: In August, the overall downstream demand for n-butanol was mainly cautious in purchasing due to rigid demand, and the overall inquiry atmosphere in the market was average due to the continued low market trend. The support for n-butanol on the demand side is insufficient.

In terms of supply: In August, the supply side of n-butanol was basically in a relatively loose supply state, and the overall support provided by the supply side to the market was average.

Market price situation of n-butanol

Region/ Product/ August 27th

Shandong region/ N-butanol/ Around 7100-7350 yuan/ton

North China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7200-7350 yuan/ton

South China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7600-7700 yuan/ton

East China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7200-7400 yuan/ton

Market analysis in the future

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market is relatively light, and the transmission of n-butanol supply and demand is slow. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the n-butanol market in Shandong Province, China, will mainly adjust and operate weakly. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on August 26th, the reference market price for domestic silicon metal # 441 was 11940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan/ton or 1.32% from August 1st (market price of silicon metal # 441 was 12100 yuan/ton).

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in August, the overall focus of the domestic silicon metal market shifted downwards. In July, the domestic silicon metal market continued to decline. Entering August, in the first few days, the silicon metal market finally stopped falling and stabilized, and the market situation temporarily stabilized and operated. However, due to the lack of support in the market, it is difficult to maintain stability in the silicon metal market, and the overall market trend continues to move towards the bottom. In late August, the silicon metal market stopped falling and stabilized. As of August 26th, the reference price for the domestic silicon metal 441 # market was yuan/ton.

On the supply side: In August, due to the continuous downward trend of the previous market, although a small number of metal silicon factories stopped production, the overall operating rate on site remained high. Therefore, the overall supply of metal silicon remained loose, and the overall pressure on the supply side was high. The market’s destocking performance was average, and the support provided by the supply side to metal silicon was weak.

On the demand side: In August, the overall downstream demand for silicon metal was weak, coupled with the continuous bottoming out of futures prices, accelerating the downward trend of market prices. Downstream users are cautious about purchasing raw materials, and silicon companies in the Sichuan Yunnan region have basically resumed production to the level of previous years’ abundant water periods. However, downstream demand has increased slightly, and the supply-demand imbalance still appears, leading to negative market sentiment.

Market analysis in the future

At present, there is still an oversupply situation in the metal silicon market. From a cost perspective, some small and medium-sized silicon enterprises have fallen to the edge of the cost line, and their willingness to continue to sell at a discount is not strong. However, the overall production reduction adjustment in the market is also limited. The metal silicon data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly operate with large stability and small fluctuations, and specific changes in supply and demand need to be closely monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of PET water bottle grade material has shown a downward trend this week. As of August 23, its average market price has been adjusted to 6787 yuan per ton.

In terms of raw material market this week, the price of polyester dual raw materials showed a slight narrowing downward trend, which failed to provide effective cost support for the PET market. As a result, the pessimistic sentiment within the PET market continues to ferment, with weak market demand and a significant decrease in trading activity, leading to a further decline in the focus of PET futures and spot prices.

In response to the current situation, senior analysts in the PET sector of Shengyi Society pointed out that due to insufficient cost support and relatively loose supply prospects, the PET market may continue its weak consolidation pattern in the short term. However, the actual trend of the market will still highly depend on further developments in raw material prices and the smooth implementation of potential equipment maintenance plans, which will have a direct impact on the supply and demand balance and price trends of the PET market.