This week (12.12-16), domestic butyl acetate continued to decline, and the market was short of good news. It is mainly due to weak demand and weak support of upstream acetic acid and n-butanol. According to the monitoring of the business community, butyl acetate fell 0.86% this week. The domestic mainstream quotation of butyl acetate on Friday was 7100-7350 yuan/ton.

First of all, from the perspective of cost, the market of acetic acid and n-butanol deviated, acetic acid declined slightly, with a weekly decline of 0.55%, while n-butanol rose strongly, with a weekly increase of 7.23%. However, it is still unable to pull the weak market of supply and demand.

From the perspective of acetic acid, according to the monitoring of the business community, the price of acetic acid continued to decline this week, and the price is still hovering at a low level. Downstream demand downturn is difficult to support prices out of the haze, especially in North China, Northwest and other regions where demand is weak, and the fundamentals are negative, which may be difficult to reverse in the later period.

From the perspective of supply and demand, butyl acetate shows a relatively prominent pressure of supply and demand, and the market shows that both supply and demand are not strong. On the supply side, the operating rate of manufacturers remains low, and the market operating rate is still below 40%. The supply pressure is not large. This week, the prices of butyl acetate manufacturers remained at last week’s level. Downstream demand has not improved significantly. The market trading and investment atmosphere is not good, and most businesses are bearish.

Future market forecast: In the short term, the cost of butyl acetate will improve in the short term. In the later period, n-butanol may drive the rise of butyl ester, but the supply and demand are not strong or the market will be troubled for a long time. The weak shock will continue. In the near future, attention should be paid to the price trend of upstream acetic acid and n-butanol, as well as the commencement of downstream plants.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose slightly this week. This week, the average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde mainstream market rose from 6216.67 yuan/ton at the weekend to 6600.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 6.18%. A year-on-year decrease of 21.43%. On December 18, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 33.50, unchanged from yesterday, down 68.27% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 (2021-09-16), and up 11.22% from the lowest point of 30.12 on October 7, 2022. (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers rose this week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market of isobutyraldehyde upstream raw material market rose slightly this week, with the price rising from 7436.60 yuan/ton at the weekend to 7608.60 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 2.34%. The upstream raw material market price rose slightly, and the cost support increased. Affected by the supply and demand, it had a positive impact on the isobutyraldehyde price. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol rose slightly, with the price rising from 8966.67 yuan/ton at the weekend to 9166.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 2.23%. Neopentyl glycol market rose slightly, with better downstream demand, which had a positive impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future outlook

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in late December may rise slightly. The upstream propylene market rose slightly and cost support increased. The downstream neopentyl glycol market stopped falling and rose, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased. The isobutyraldehyde analysts from the business community believe that the isobutyraldehyde market may rise slightly due to the impact of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects in the short-term isobutyraldehyde market.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic market of cyclohexanone is in a stalemate. From December 9 to 16, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone market fell from 9200 yuan/ton to 919 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.11%. The price fell 4.27% month on month and 10.78% year on year. The raw material pure benzene operates under shock, and the cost is relatively stable. The production enterprises have relatively stable plant start-up and stable market supply. Downstream chemical fiber steel needs to follow up, and the market transaction atmosphere is general.

On the cost side, the price of domestic pure benzene market fluctuated and fell. East China spot traded at 6440-6530 yuan/ton, and Shandong market traded at 6500-6600 yuan/ton. The fundamentals of pure benzene improved, and the market panic eased after new supply. Imports to ships remained high, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The cost of cyclohexanone is hardly favorable.

On the supply side, the current market is relatively abundant. There are positive factors in the supply of cyclohexanone in the short term.

On the demand side, the market price of caprolactam, the main downstream product of cyclohexanone, has risen slightly. Recently, the price of pure benzene has stabilized and consolidated. In the early stage of downstream PA6 slicing, the low price trading atmosphere has improved slightly. The raw materials of polymerization plants are replenished as needed. The seller’s quotation in the caprolactam market has risen and the low price has decreased, and the price center has risen. Caprolactam supply is expected to increase, while demand has not actually improved. The demand side of cyclohexanone is hardly favorable.

The future forecast shows that the cost support is stable, the supply side increases slightly, and the downstream chemical fiber may maintain rigid demand. The cyclohexanone analysts of the business community expected that the short-term domestic cyclohexanone market would be mainly organized.

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, as of December 15, the average price quoted by 85% domestic industrial formic acid enterprises was 3000.00 yuan/ton, which was flat compared with the price on Monday.

This week (12.12-12.15), the market price of domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid was stable. This week, the raw material sulfuric acid was stable first and then rose. The price of raw material methanol was weak, and the cost impact was average. Domestic downstream procurement was mainly based on demand, and the export market was fair. Most enterprises shipped steadily, and the market procurement and sales were orderly.

Upstream product: upstream sulfuric acid. On December 15, the domestic sulfuric acid market price rose. On December 14, the reference price of sulfuric acid was 303.33, a decrease of 5.7% compared with December 1 (321.67); On December 14, the reference price of upstream methanol was 2683.33, which was 0.06% higher than that on December 1 (2681.67).

The formic acid analysts of the business community believe that the current cost impact is limited, the market negotiation atmosphere is mild, and the transaction is orderly. In the short term, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market may be dominated by stability, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic BDO market still occupies the first place, the actual order delivery and investment are light, and the focus of the negotiation is weak. From December 2 to 9, the average weekly price of domestic BDO manufacturers remained at 9716 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 9436 yuan/ton at the weekend. During the cycle, the price fell 2.88%, 29.05% month on month and 69.56% year on year. The early maintenance devices of the production enterprises have been started successively, and the market supply has increased correspondingly, while the downstream demand continues to be sluggish, and the operating rate of enterprises in the downstream industry is low, so the digestion of raw material BDO has been greatly reduced.

On the cost side, raw calcium carbide: the business community monitored that the domestic calcium carbide price fell in shock. The price at the beginning of the week was kept at 3800 yuan/ton, and at the weekend it was kept at 3767 yuan/ton, down 0.86%. In terms of methanol, the business community monitored that the price of domestic methanol in East China ports fell first and then rose in a narrow range, with 2670 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 2680 yuan/ton at the weekend. The price rose 0.37% during the cycle. In the near future, there are few positive factors in the carbide and methanol markets, and the BDO cost support is weak.

On the supply side, Henan Hemei, Yizheng Dalian and Xinjiang Meike Phase III units are in shutdown state, and a set of units in Xinjiang Lanshantunhe River is expected to be overhauled in the middle of December. The time is uncertain, and there is no planned change in other units. At present, there is no good on the supply side, and short-term parking enterprises will not start construction. If they start construction, negative factors on the supply side will increase.

On the demand side, the load of PTMEG industry dropped to about 60%, but some enterprises are about to start early maintenance equipment, and the demand has increased. The overall operating rate of the PBT industry has risen again, and the digestion of raw materials will increase; The overall change in BDO demand was slightly positive.

It is predicted in the future that the downstream rigid demand has consumed a part of the social inventory by means of reducing the load of enterprise devices and reducing the supply of goods for external auction through maintenance. At present, the supply of goods on hand of traders has decreased compared with the previous period. Business agency BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market is expected to stabilize.

Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the price of domestic urea market fell slightly this week, from 2790.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 2744.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a drop of 1.65%, 11.82% higher than the same period last year. On December 11, the urea commodity index was 127.63, unchanged from yesterday, down 16.21% from the highest point of 152.33 (2022-05-15) in the cycle, and up 129.55% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Good cost support, weak downstream demand and tight urea supply

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream price of urea in China fell this week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream market of urea this week as a whole saw a sharp rise: the price of LNG rose sharply, from 5010.00 yuan/ton at the weekend to 7194.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 43.59%, 42.74% year-on-year; The price of anthracite was consolidated at a high level, and the price of Yangquan anthracite (washing block) was 1710 yuan/ton; The price of liquid ammonia rose slightly, from 4773.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 4890.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 2.44%, and 10.88% compared with the same period last year. Upstream raw materials rose significantly, and the price support for urea increased. The price of melamine at the downstream of urea fell slightly this week, from 8333.33 yuan/ton at the weekend to 8266.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, down 0.80%.

In terms of demand, agricultural demand is average, and industrial demand is normal. The operation rate of compound fertilizer plant is high, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is good. The board and melamine enterprises started in general, and just needed to purchase. Downstream has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere for high priced urea, and procurement slows down. In terms of supply, some units in Shanxi resumed production, some gas enterprises stopped for maintenance, and the daily urea output was about 150000 tons.

Mainly up slightly in the future

The domestic urea market may rise slightly in mid to late December. According to the urea analysts of the business community, the prices of anthracite and liquefied gas in the upstream of urea rose slightly, and the urea cost support increased. The downstream agricultural demand is general, the industrial demand is normal, the export orders are orderly promoted, and the urea supply is tight. In the future, urea rose mainly in a narrow range.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of caustic soda was temporarily stable this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 1104 yuan/ton, and at the weekend, the average market price in Shandong was 1108 yuan/ton. The price rose 0.36%, 41.15% higher than the same period last year. On December 11, the caustic soda commodity index was 159.42, unchanged from yesterday, down 39.95% from the highest point of 265.47 (2021-10-27) in the cycle, and up 144.85% from the lowest point of 65.11 on October 9, 2020. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the survey data of the business community, the domestic caustic soda price was temporarily stable this week. The average market price in Shandong is about 1070-1180 yuan/ton. The factory quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda mainstream in Hebei is about 1100-1200 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in the market is in a stalemate, and the market turnover is average recently,. However, the downstream market is mainly wait-and-see, and more cautious purchasing. However, due to the close of the New Year, there are downstream enterprises to stock up, which supports the price of caustic soda.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are 2 kinds of rising commodities, 3 kinds of falling commodities, and 0 kind of zero rising or falling commodities in the list of prices of chlor alkali industry in the 49th week of 2022 (12.5-12.9). The main commodities that rose were caustic soda (0.36%) and light soda ash (0.08%); The main commodities falling were hydrochloric acid (-2.25%), calcium carbide (-0.44%) and PVC (-0.14%). The average rise and fall this week was -0.48%.

Analysts from the business community believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda is in a stalemate, the downstream alumina procurement demand is general, the procurement mood is not high, the wait-and-see operation is the main, the procurement is cautious, and it is comprehensively expected that caustic soda will be put into operation next week, depending on the downstream market demand.

This week’s weak DOP price decreases

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of December 9, the DOP price was 9761 yuan/ton, down 2.19% from 9980 yuan/ton on December 1. In December, the price of raw materials fell, the cost of DOP fell, the price of DOP fell in shock, and the weak market of DOP fell.

The price of raw material isooctanol was weak and fell in shock

According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of December 9, the price of isooctanol was 9133.33 yuan/ton, down 1.08% from 9233.33 yuan/ton on December 1. The start of isooctanol was adjusted by shocks, the demand for plasticizers was sluggish, the price of isooctanol was weak, and the cost of DOP was reduced.

The price of raw material phthalic anhydride fell sharply

According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of December 9, the quotation of phthalic anhydride by o-benzene method was 8150 yuan/ton, down 4.68% from the price of 9550 yuan/ton on December 1. The price of ortho phthalic anhydride dropped, the operating rate of ortho phthalic anhydride increased, the supply of phthalic anhydride increased, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride dropped significantly, and the cost of DOP decreased.

Future market expectation

According to the DOP data analysts of the business agency, since December, the prices of raw materials, such as isooctanol and phthalic anhydride, have dropped sharply, the cost of DOP has declined, and the downward pressure on DOP has increased. In the future, the demand for DOP cost reduction is still weak, and it is expected that the DOP price will be weak in the future.

In November, DOTP prices fell in shock

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 30, the average price of DOTP was 9850 yuan/ton, down 1.87% from the average price of 10037.50 yuan/ton on November 1. The cost fell and the demand was weak, and DOTP fell in November.

The price of raw materials fell in November

According to the data of the business association; As of November 30, the price of isooctanol was 9166.67 yuan/ton, down 0.36% from 9200 yuan/ton on November 1. Affected by the frequent outbreaks of the epidemic, isooctanol started to adjust, the demand for plasticizers was low, and the price of isooctanol was weak.

According to the data of the business community, as of November 30, the PTA price was 5511.67 yuan/ton, down 3.09% from 5687.50 yuan/ton on November 1. The international crude oil price fell sharply, the PTA cost fell, the supply and demand of PTA were relatively balanced, the PTA price fell sharply, and the downward pressure on DOTP increased.

The output of plastic products declined month on month

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of plastic products in October was 6.685 million tons, down 3.7% year on year, and the output in September was 6.92 million tons month on month. The output of plastic products fell both month on month, the demand for plasticizers decreased, and the downward pressure on plasticizers increased.

Future market expectation

Analysts of DOTP data from the business association believed that in November, the price of plasticizer DOTP raw materials, isooctanol and PTA, was adjusted by shocks, and the cost of plasticizer DOTP raw materials decreased; The output of plastic products declined, the demand was weak, and the downward pressure on DOTP increased. On the whole, the demand for DOTP cost reduction is weak, and it is expected that DOTP shocks will become stable in the future, and weak shocks will be adjusted.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average market price of the manufacturers of petroleum asphalt in Shandong Province on December 6 was 3510 yuan/ton, down 0.69% from the previous working day and up 12.34% year on year. On December 6, the main asphalt contract 2301 closed at 3364 yuan/ton, down 3.94%.

International oil prices closed down after rising, which was bad for the entire oil industry chain. In terms of spot goods, the asphalt price of Sinopec Refinery, a major producer, decreased by 50-250 yuan/ton, driving the domestic asphalt price down continuously. In terms of demand, the downstream mainly purchases on demand, and the actual trading atmosphere is ordinary, mainly low-end deals.

Short term spot asphalt prices remain weak.