1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PVC market fell from January to June 2023. On January 1st, the average spot price of PVC carbide method SG5 in China was 6141.67 yuan/ton, and on June 30th, the average price was 5503.33 yuan/ton. In the first half of the year, the price fell by 10.39%.

2、 Market analysis

Product Market

Looking at the development of PVC market in the first half of 2023, the spot price of PVC carbide SG5 fluctuated and rose mainly in January. Prices rose first and then fell in February. Prices fluctuated and fell in March. Prices fell from April to June.

In the first quarter, PVC carbide SG5 spot prices fluctuated and mainly operated in a fluctuating manner. The cumulative decline from January to March was 0.73%. In January, the price of PVC Spot market rose, and the PVC cost support was good around the Spring Festival. The downstream resumption of production in February was less than expected, and the PVC Spot market fell first and then rose, with a slight decline overall. The sharp decrease in raw material calcium carbide prices in March resulted in weak cost support. The price of PVC Spot market fell in March. As of March 31st, the quotation range for domestic PVC5 carbide materials is mostly around 5830-6250 yuan/ton.

In the second quarter, PVC carbide method SG5 spot sales were mainly down. The cumulative decline from April to June was 9.73%. In April, the price of raw material calcium carbide continued to decline, with weak cost support and high PVC inventory, resulting in a continuous downward trend in spot prices. In May, the demand for orders in the downstream market was sluggish, leading to poor overall procurement, traders would not hoard more goods, and the price of PVC Spot market continued to decline. In June, the demand for orders in the downstream market was general, the overall inventory pressure in the market was large, and the price of PVC Spot market fell in shock. As of June 30th, the quotation range for domestic PVC5 carbide materials is mostly around 5300-5700 yuan/ton.

Production aspect

According to industry data, the domestic PVC production in June 2023 was 1.756 million tons, a decrease of 5.93% month on month and 3.72% year on year. The cumulative production from January to June was 11.1042 million tons. Among them, the production of PVC using carbide method was 1.2887 million tons, a decrease of 8.47% compared to May and a decrease of 12.03% compared to June last year. The production of PVC using ethylene method was 467300 tons, an increase of 2.23% compared to May and an increase of 30.25% compared to June last year.

In terms of operating rate

According to industry data, the domestic PVC operating rate in June 2023 was 75.02%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.67% and a month on month decrease of 4.72%.

Import and export aspects

In May 2023, the import volume of pure PVC powder in China was 22100 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.03% and a month on month decrease of 42.36%. The average monthly import price was 858.81. The export volume was 140300 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 47.25% and a month on month increase of 3.97%. The monthly average export price was 810.72. The total export volume from January to May was 928300 tons, while the total import volume was 212900 tons.

Upstream calcium carbide aspect

In terms of calcium carbide, according to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region decreased from January to June. The average factory price of calcium carbide on January 1st was 3700 yuan/ton, and on June 30th it was 2883.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.07%. The prices of upstream raw materials, such as blue charcoal, have stabilized at a low level, and there is insufficient support for the cost of calcium carbide. Some calcium carbide enterprises have started to resume production, and the circulation of goods has increased. The downstream PVC market is declining, and downstream demand is weak.

3、 Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts from the business agency believe that in the second half of the year, the PVC Spot market will continue to operate in a range of shocks. Pay more attention to the upstream calcium carbide situation and the downstream market demand. In addition, changes in terminal real estate policies are also important factors affecting the current two cities. It is expected that PVC spot prices will experience strong fluctuations in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of July 11, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 6325.00 yuan/ton, up 5.20% from July 1.

The acrylic acid market has been steadily rising since July. Recently, the market price of raw material propylene has slightly decreased, and the cost support has weakened. With the support of some equipment maintenance and supply constraints, acrylic acid companies have steadily increased their quotations, and downstream inquiries have increased their enthusiasm. However, the purchasing mentality is still cautious, and the main focus is on following up in an appropriate amount.

Upstream propylene, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market has recently slightly declined. On July 10th, the reference price for propylene was 6370.75, a decrease of 2.26% compared to July 1st (6518.25).

Acrylic acid analysts from Business Society believe that the current factory equipment load is not high, and there is some support for supply in the market. Market transactions are mainly in demand, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be gently sorted and operated in the short term, and more market news guidance is needed.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the reference average price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China on January 1st was 9025 yuan/ton. On June 30th, the reference average price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China was 6300 yuan/ton. In the first half of 2023, the domestic price of hot process phosphoric acid decreased by 30.19%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 8966 yuan/ton on January 1, and 6200 yuan/ton on June 30. In the first half of 2023, the domestic wet process phosphoric acid price decreased by 30.86%.

2、 Market analysis

According to the K-bar chart from January to June 2023, it can be seen that the price of phosphoric acid decreased significantly in the first half of the year. April saw the largest decline, with a maximum decline of 14.41%.

The price of phosphoric acid fluctuated and fell in the first half of 2023. In the first half of the year, the market for raw materials such as yellow phosphorus and phosphate rock weakened, resulting in insufficient cost support. The demand for phosphoric acid in the market is weak, and trading continues to be light, with bearish sentiment mainly on the market. There are fewer downstream purchases, and the transaction atmosphere is weak. Under the influence of weak factors of cost and demand, the domestic phosphoric acid price trend continued to decline from January to May. In June, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus stopped falling and stabilized, while the trend of raw materials for phosphoric acid was on the watch. The market price stopped falling and slightly increased.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Due to poor raw material prices in the first half of 2023, cost support is insufficient. Coupled with weak downstream demand, the trend of the phosphoric acid market continues to be weak. Recently, the stock of raw material yellow phosphorus has been tight, and market inquiries have increased. The phosphoric acid market has stabilized and is expected to show an upward trend in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 7th, the average price quoted by domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises was 3875.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged compared to Monday’s price.

This week, the formic acid market continued to maintain a stable trend, with a price center of around 3900 yuan/ton, without significant fluctuations. Recently, the price of raw material sulfuric acid has been weak and stable, and the market for raw material methanol has fluctuated in a narrow range. The cost support is average, and downstream replenishment on demand is stable. The trading atmosphere in the formic acid market continues to be at the previous level.

Upstream product: Upstream sulfuric acid. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price for sulfuric acid was 188.00 on July 6th, a decrease of 2.08% compared to July 1st (192.00); Upstream methanol, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price for methanol on July 6th was 2155.83, a decrease of 1.11% compared to July 1st (2180.00).

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that the current cost impact is temporarily limited, and supply and demand support is still acceptable. It is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market will remain stable in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of Paraformaldehyde in Shandong has risen recently. At the beginning of the week, the average production price of Paraformaldehyde in Shandong was 4650.00 yuan/ton. At the weekend, the average production price of Paraformaldehyde in Shandong was 4712.50 yuan/ton, up 1.34%, down 2.84% month on month, and down 11.92% year on year.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market situation has been sorted out. The ex factory price of methanol in the southern region of Shandong is referenced to be around 2100 yuan/ton for cash exchange, while the delivery price in Linyi is referenced to be around 2160 yuan/ton for cash exchange. The local methanol factory in central Shandong offers a price of 2250-2250 yuan/ton for self delivery from the factory. The negotiated price range for methanol in the Dongying region of Shandong is 2070-2090 yuan/ton.

After the recent rise of methanol market, it was temporarily consolidated, with good cost support. Downstream procurement remained just in demand, and Paraformaldehyde analysts from the business community predicted that the price might rise slightly.

In June, the domestic DME market in Henan declined significantly. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 4125 yuan/ton on June 1, and 3760 yuan/ton on June 28. The monthly decline was 8.85 yuan, 2.34% lower than the same period last year.

As of June 28th, the mainstream prices of dimethyl ether in various domestic markets are as follows:

Region/ Mainstream quotation

Shandong region/ 3150 yuan/ton

Hebei region/ 3200 yuan/ton

Henan region/ 3100 yuan/ton

In June, the decline in the domestic dimethyl ether market increased and deepened. In the first half of June, the dimethyl ether market in Henan region experienced a significant decline. Due to the significant suppression of downstream demand, upstream inventory quickly accumulated, and upstream prices were significantly adjusted to stimulate sales. The surrounding markets have also fallen synchronously, while crude oil prices have slightly adjusted, and the prices of related liquefied gas products have fluctuated at the bottom, supporting weak news. Entering the second half of the month, the market for dimethyl ether has seen a stable review. Under demand constraints, the positive news has limited boost, while the bearish trend has led to a clear and steady decline in the overall market,

The raw material methanol market first fell and then rose, strengthening support for dimethyl ether. Especially in the second half of June, the market started to recover, but the overall supply on the market was loose, with limited changes in demand, which suppressed price increases. From June 1st to 28th, the average price of East China ports in the domestic methanol market dropped from 2161 yuan/ton to 2103 yuan/ton. The price fell by 2.68% during the cycle.

Overall, the current price of dimethyl ether has fallen to a low point, but the industry has a strong bearish attitude towards the future market. It is expected to enter July, with high and stable weather further suppressing demand and the dimethyl ether market operating in a weak and volatile manner.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic market price of isopropanol continued to decline in June. On June 1st, the average price of isopropanol was 6670 yuan/ton, while on June 29th, the average price was 6460 yuan/ton. During the month, the price decreased by 3.15%.

2、 Market analysis

Figure: Comparison of price trends of acetone and isopropanol

The domestic market price of isopropanol continued to decline in June. The isopropanol market remains light this month, with poor trading conditions and cautious wait-and-see behavior. The upstream acetone market fell, cost support weakened, and the market price of isopropanol followed suit. As of now, the majority of quotations for isopropanol in the Shandong region are around 6200-6400 yuan/ton; The majority of prices for isopropanol in the Jiangsu region are around 6700-6800 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, according to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the market price of acetone has decreased this month. On June 1st, the average price of acetone was 5612.5 yuan/ton, while on June 29th, the average price was 5407.5 yuan/ton. During the month, the price decreased by 3.65%. At present, the focus of the domestic acetone market has fallen after rising, and the negotiating focus has declined. As the end of the month approaches, there has been a recent replenishment of imported goods and an increase in port inventory; The profit of the phenol ketone factory has increased, and the operating rate is expected to increase in July; In terms of demand, the factory completely needs to follow up. Although intermediate traders have participated, their inventory willingness is not high, and downstream proactive replenishment is not high. It is expected that the market will adjust weakly in the next few days at the end of the month, with little market volatility.

In terms of raw material propylene, according to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price fell first and then rose in June, with a slight increase overall. At the beginning of June, the market average was 6460.75/ton, with an average price of 6513.25/ton on June 29th, a monthly increase of 0.81%. Propylene analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that due to the incomplete maintenance of some devices, on-site supply has decreased. At the same time, during the Dragon Boat Festival, downstream procurement is still good, and the trading atmosphere has improved, with upstream actively pushing up. It is expected that the propylene market will digest the increase in the short term, with limited room for further upward growth.

3、 Future Market Forecast

An isopropanol analyst from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believes that the domestic isopropanol market prices have fallen this month. Upstream acetone market prices remain declining, while propylene (Shandong) market prices have slightly increased, with average cost support. Traders and downstream users have poor purchasing enthusiasm and are cautious in actual orders. Overall, there is insufficient confidence in the isopropanol market, so it is better to wait and see. It is expected that the isopropanol market will temporarily stabilize in the short term.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of June 30th, the average price of high-quality rubber grade white carbon black in China was 6025.00 yuan/ton. In June, the market price of white carbon black remained stable, with a limited range of price fluctuations. Currently, the mainstream price is around 6000 yuan/ton.

Overall, the market price of white carbon black remained stable in June, with a mainstream price of around 6000 yuan/ton. The focus of negotiations was stable, with downstream demand procurement being the main focus, and the enthusiasm for stocking was average. Manufacturers mainly offered discounts and took orders, but the number of new orders was limited.

Chemical Index: On June 28th, the chemical index stood at 801 points, a decrease of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 42.79% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 33.95% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Business Society’s white carbon black analyst believes that in the short term, the stable operation of the white carbon black market is the main factor, and the range of price fluctuations is limited.

Price trend

The domestic POM market has been negative this month, with spot prices falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 30th, the average factory price of domestic POM was 11100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.29% from the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market of the Business Society, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region fell in June. Formaldehyde has been mainly fluctuating and declining in the past three months, and the market has continued to decline this month. The raw material methanol first fell and then rose, and formaldehyde manufacturers started operating normally. However, the demand for downstream panel factories was weak. When methanol fell, formaldehyde followed suit, but when methanol rose, the momentum of formaldehyde rise was weak, and the overall formaldehyde market was at a low level.

On the supply side:

The operating rate of domestic POM enterprises remained high in June, and some maintenance enterprises in the early stage resumed work. The current industry load is close to full capacity at 93.53%. The high load situation continues, and the inventory pressure of most enterprises gradually accumulates, leading to a gradual decrease in processing profits.

In terms of demand:

This month, POM terminal enterprises have weak stocking enthusiasm, and the operating rate of terminal enterprises has not improved. The consumption release situation is negative, and the driving effect on spot prices is limited. Traders lack confidence. It is expected that as the temperature increases, there will still be expectations of a decrease in downstream load. Buyers will buy up instead of falling, with a wait-and-see mentality and flexible real order transactions.

Future Market Forecast

The POM market fell this month. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants remains high, and the pattern of abundant supply remains unchanged. Industry inventory pressure is accumulating, and suppliers are unable to support spot goods. On the demand side, downstream enterprises are operating at a low level and have a relatively low demand for replenishment, resulting in low actual transactions. How much profit is currently available on the market? It is expected that the POM market will continue to be weak at the beginning of next month.

In June 2023, the 1 # electrolytic manganese market will continue to decline. The Spot market price in East China will be 16350 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16100 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 1.53% month on month.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar chart above, it can be seen that the electrolytic manganese market has been declining for five consecutive months since December 22. From the weekly bar chart, we can see that the electrolytic manganese market continued to decline in late May.

In terms of manganese ore: The manganese ore market remained weak in June. The supply and demand game is deadlocked, and the market mentality is inconsistent. Some miners are facing losses and their quotations are firm, while others are affected by the pressure of silicon and manganese manufacturers and the reduction of external quotations, resulting in loose transaction prices. As of June 28, the semi carbonate in Port of Tianjin was 31.3-31.5 yuan/ton, Australia was about 39.8 yuan/ton and Gabon was about 37.5-38 yuan/ton, which remained weak; The manganese mine in Qinzhou Port operates weakly and stably, with a relatively small price fluctuation range. The transaction price of semi carbonated acid is around 30.5 yuan/ton, while the price of Australian block is 39.5-40 yuan/ton, the price of high-quality Australian seeds is 37-37.5 yuan/ton, and the price of Gabon is around 37.5 yuan/ton.

In June 2023, the electrolytic manganese market overall declined. In early June, market news announced that a large domestic factory would resume work in the near future, and the market expected a loose supply in the future, leading to a wave of downward trend. In the middle of the month, market inventory data showed that the overall domestic electrolytic manganese inventory is running at a high level. Under the influence of loose supply, the electrolytic manganese market has been declining for four consecutive weeks this month. Although the weekly decline is only around 100 yuan/ton, it has a significant impact on market sentiment. Currently, the overall bearish atmosphere in the market is relatively strong. There has been no significant improvement in demand, and overall demand is weak. Downstream procurement intentions are still low, overall inventory is running at a high level, and the game mentality between supply and demand is strong, resulting in a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. FOB prices have been declining for three consecutive weeks within the month, reaching $1980 to $2030 per ton on the 29th, a decrease of approximately $180 per ton compared to the same period last month. Overall, the business community expects that downstream demand will remain weak overall, and there will be little improvement in the short term. It is expected that the future market will be mainly stable, moderate, and weak, while waiting for more guidance on steel bidding prices.

In June, the silicon manganese Spot market was dominated by weak operation under the situation of low price of silicon manganese steel bidding inquiry, insufficient cost support and obvious characteristics of terminal demand off-season. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the market price of silicon manganese in Ningxia region (specification FeMN68Si18) was around 6450-6650 yuan/ton on June 29th, with an average market price of 6566 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.35% compared to the beginning of the month.

Steel recruitment situation:

The acceptance price for Baosteel’s electrolytic manganese bidding, including taxes, is 14700 yuan/ton, which is the same as the bidding price on June 15. The quantity is 1200 tons, and the delivery date is before July 25, 2023.

Baosteel’s new round of electrolytic manganese bidding: Baoshan Base has 1200 tons of electrolytic manganese sheets, while Wuhan Iron and Steel has 160 tons of electrolytic manganese sheets. The quotation deadline is June 30, 2023, and the delivery date is July 25, 2023.

Fushun Special Steel Electrolytic Metal Manganese Bidding: Quantity 96 tons, quotation as of June 28, 2023, delivery date July 31, 2023.

Shougang Corporation’s July 2023 electrolytic manganese sheet bidding: quantity 2400 tons, quotation as of June 28, 2023, delivery date July 31, 2023.

Related data:

According to customs data, the total export volume of unwrought manganese, manganese waste and powder (electrolytic manganese) in April 2023 was approximately 20600.3 tons, a decrease of 38.42% compared to the previous month; In April 2023, the total import volume of unwrought manganese, manganese waste and powder (electrolytic manganese) was approximately 4700.006 tons, a decrease of 14.55% compared to the previous month.