An increase in the price of acetic anhydride

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of January 22, the price of acetic anhydride was 5862.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.43% compared to January 15, which was 5837.50 yuan/ton. Compared with the price of acetic anhydride on January 19 last weekend, which was 5825 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.64%, acetic anhydride equipment stopped, acetic acid supply decreased, acetic anhydride enterprises suspended production, acetic anhydride enterprises had insufficient supply, and acetic anhydride prices increased.

An increase in the price of acetic acid

According to the analysis system of the acetic acid market in Shengyishe, as of January 22, the price of acetic acid was 3250 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.56% compared to the 3200 yuan/ton price on January 15. Several acetic acid manufacturers in Ningxia, Shandong, and Hebei have experienced equipment shutdowns or load reductions, resulting in a tightening of acetic acid supply and an increase in acetic acid prices.

Future prospects

Business Society Acetic Anhydride Data Analyst believes that the production of acetic acid enterprises has decreased, the supply of acetic acid has tightened, the price of acetic acid has increased, and the cost of acetic anhydride has increased. The acetic anhydride equipment has been shut down, resulting in a decrease in the supply of acetic anhydride. Overall, the tight supply of acetic anhydride has led to an increase in costs, and it is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will rise in the future.

Product name: Sulfuric acid

Latest price (January 22): 187.50 yuan/ton

On January 22nd, the domestic sulfuric acid market price dropped significantly, with a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to January 19th, a decrease of 9.64%, and a year-on-year decrease of 30.98%. The upstream sulfur market has recently experienced a significant decline, with insufficient cost support. The downstream ammonium phosphate market has slightly declined, and downstream customers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. Multiple bearish factors led to a sharp decline in the sulfuric acid market.

It is expected that the domestic sulfuric acid market price will slightly decline in the future, with an average market price of around 170 yuan/ton.

The liquid epoxy resin market is showing signs of fatigue, with prices continuing to decline. On January 19th, the market quoted factory price of purified water hovered between 12700 and 13000 yuan, and the quoted price in Shandong region was as low as 12600 to 12900 yuan/ton of purified water.

The raw material side experienced narrow fluctuations, and the bisphenol A market saw a narrow upward trend. The quoted price was around 9400-9550 yuan/ton. On Tuesday, due to the strong performance of pure benzene, the price of phenolic ketones rose, and under market pressure, the bisphenol A market rose. On Monday, the bidding for Zhejiang Petrochemical was suspended, and the starting price for enterprise premium product delivery was 9300 yuan/ton. The second round of bidding reached 9350 yuan/ton. The quotation for epichlorohydrin is around 8100-8200 yuan/ton. However, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has not shown signs of improvement, leading to an increasingly stagnant trading atmosphere on the exchange. It is currently unclear when the sluggish state of the liquid epoxy resin market will usher in a turning point.

The domestic phenol market has continued to rise, with Sinopec East China phenol prices executing at 7150 yuan/ton and Sinopec North China phenol prices executing at 7200 yuan/ton. The focus of phenol is on the rise, supported by high levels of raw material pure benzene. Traders are strongly inclined to support prices due to the support of raw materials, with further upward expectations. Looking downstream, terminal factories are cautious in chasing price increases, with low buying enthusiasm and mainly offering in demand. It is expected that the domestic phenol market will operate at a high price, focusing on the supply and demand fundamentals and market trading situation. The reference price for the East China phenol market is between 7300-7400 yuan/ton.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the average price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong at the beginning of the year was 5400.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the year, the average price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 4900.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.26%. The lowest point was 4650.00 yuan/ton on July 2, and the highest point was 5487.50 yuan/ton on September 10, an increase of 18.01%.

Polyformaldehyde

The market situation of polyformaldehyde in Shandong Province in 2023 showed an N-shaped pattern. From the above chart, it can be seen that formaldehyde has been on an upward trend for three months in 2023, with the highest monthly increase in July reaching 15.05%. The increase in July is mainly due to good downstream demand, active procurement, and a shortage of polyformaldehyde supply, resulting in a significant increase in the polyformaldehyde market. Formaldehyde has been on a downward trend for 9 months in 2023, with the largest decline occurring in May, reaching 6.05%. The main reason for the decline is the continuous decline of raw material methanol, with downstream production at a low level and oversupply, leading to a weak decline in the market for polyformaldehyde.

Upstream methanol situation: In 2023, the domestic methanol market showed an “M” – shaped trend, with two obvious “ups and downs” cycles throughout the year. The “high point” of prices in February and March is mainly due to the joint support of costs and demand. Some coal mines have cleared their inventory in the early stage, and terminal procurement is relatively active. There is a significant increase in transportation vehicles, coupled with the impact of sudden related accidents. In the short term, coal prices may rise. Downstream acetic acid: demand for acetic acid may increase; Downstream chloride: chloride demand or decrease. The temporary storage of methanol demand is favorable. The methanol market has seen a dual positive rise. The lowest price is in mid June, and the support for methanol production costs has weakened. Traditional demand has entered the off-season, and demand is weak. At the same time, some methanol parking facilities have recovered. Overall, the supply in the mainland market is still relatively sufficient. From the above figure, it can be seen that methanol and formaldehyde have maintained the same curve throughout the year. The market trend of methanol has a guiding effect on polyformaldehyde.

Recently, the circulation of methanol has been restricted, and the market has shown a fluctuating upward trend. Cost support is good, and analysts from Shengyishe Polyformaldehyde predict that prices may slightly increase.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic POM market has remained stable with minor fluctuations, and spot prices have mostly remained stable. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 15th, the mixed price of domestic POM was 13050 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market in Shengyishe, the formaldehyde market prices in Shandong region have fluctuated and fallen recently, with raw material methanol prices fluctuating and poor cost support. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream board factories are taking early leave, and demand continues to decline. The formaldehyde market is mainly experiencing a slight decline.

In terms of supply:

Recently, the overall operating rate of domestic POM enterprises has rebounded. The industry equipment load is approximately 84%. There are relatively few maintenance arrangements in the future, and it is expected that POM production will remain at a high level. Fortunately, the inventory position of most enterprises is still not high, and the supply side still has sufficient support for POM spot goods.

In terms of demand:

Recently, downstream POM enterprises in China have been operating at a poor level, with companies mainly digesting inventory. On exchange trading was weak, and POM consumption continued to be weak. The operator needs to follow up with a small amount of urgent needs, operates cautiously, and resists high priced sources of goods. Although there may be pre holiday stocking operations in the near future, overall, the demand side’s support for POM spot prices is weak.

Future Market Forecast

Last week, the POM market remained stagnant. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants has increased, and the inventory position of enterprises is low, resulting in moderate pressure on the supply side. Manufacturers have stabilized market confidence through strong market operations, but some merchants are under high shipping pressure. On the demand side, terminal enterprises are operating at a low level, and may continue to have holidays before holidays, leading to a decrease in load. Purchasing operations are cautious, and they are resistant to high priced goods, resulting in weak on-site trading. It is expected that the POM market may operate weakly in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of nitric acid on January 8th this week was 2166 yuan/ton, and on January 12th it was 2200 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.77%.

The price of concentrated nitric acid has fallen, and domestic acid market transactions have been weak. Adequate supply has led to a weak decline in acid prices. Sales are mainly based on orders, and the market lacks positive news support. The focus is on market transactions.

During the period of 1.8-1.12, upstream liquid ammonia decreased by 18.55%. Downstream aniline increased by 1.3%, potassium nitrate prices decreased by 2.74%, and TDI prices increased by 1.81%. Market transactions fell short of expectations, and customers in demand for dyes, pesticide intermediates, and other products had weak purchasing power. Nitric acid analysts from Business Society predict that nitric acid prices may mainly fluctuate weakly.

According to price monitoring data from Business Society, as of January 11, 2024, the reference price for domestic n-propanol market was 7950 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as January 6, 2024. Compared with December 13, 2023 (reference price for n-propanol was 7850 yuan/ton), the price increased by 100 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.27%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that this week (1.6-1.11), the overall market situation of domestic n-propanol remained stable and consolidated. This week, the supply and demand news of the domestic n-propanol market remained calm, with no significant market fluctuations. The production of n-propanol on-site facilities was normal, and downstream demand continued to be mainly based on rigid procurement and stocking. The transmission between supply and demand was normal, and the mentality of n-propanol operators was mild. As of January 11th, the domestic market price of n-propanol in Shandong region is around 7400-7800 yuan/ton. The normal operation of the n-propanol plant in the Nanjing area, and the overall stable operation of the n-propanol market, with a reference price of around 8500-9000 yuan/ton for the n-propanol market. Dealers in different regions still have reservations about prices, and the difficulty in monitoring prices may lead to differences in specific negotiation situations. Each region also has differences, and actual negotiations are the main focus.

Prediction of future market trends of n-propanol

At present, the overall inquiry atmosphere in the domestic n-propanol market is quiet and mild. Downstream new orders are mainly in demand, with some small-scale stocking. The mentality of n-propanol operators is normal. Business Society n-propanol data analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market is mainly adjusted in a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

Recently, the acrylic acid market has experienced a narrow decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 9th, the average quoted price of acrylic acid in the East China region was 6200.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.20% compared to last Wednesday (January 3rd).

Factors affecting the price of acrylic acid:

Cost side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference price for propylene on January 9th was 6643.25, a decrease of 3.28% compared to January 1st (6868.25). Since January, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market prices have first fallen and then increased, and the cost pressure on the acrylic acid market still exists.

Supply and demand side: There has been little pressure on the supply side recently, but the demand side has been light. Downstream prices have been following suit, and market transactions are mainly small orders in demand, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.

According to the acrylic acid analyst at Business Society, the current cost and supply side support continue, coupled with the strong downstream butyl acrylate market, which has boosted market sentiment. However, the demand follow-up is weak, and inquiries and purchases are made at a lower price for essential needs. The market game is being sorted out, and it is expected that the acrylic acid market will operate with narrow fluctuations in the short term. More attention should still be paid to market news guidance.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of January 9, 2023, the domestic market price of organic silicon DMC was referenced at 14760 yuan/ton. Compared with January 7 (organic silicon DMC reference 14260 yuan/ton), the price increased by 500 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.66%. Compared to January 1st (organic silicon DMC reference 13940 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 820 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.88%.

From the data monitoring chart of Business Society, it can be seen that as we enter this week, the domestic organic silicon DMC market has continued to rise, with a broad rise in the market, with a two-day increase of 2.66%. At the beginning of the week, Shandong large factories and leading companies were the first to break the stable situation and raise the price of organic silicon DMC, with an increase of about 400-600 yuan/ton. Other factories have also followed in the footsteps of large factories, raising the shipment price of organic silicon DMC by about 300-400 yuan/ton. Supported by the continuous upward trend of the organic silicon DMC market, the downstream inquiry atmosphere has improved, the enthusiasm for stocking has increased, and the overall shipment rhythm of the market has improved. In addition, some regions have reduced their load operations, and the overall supply side has also provided market support. Currently, as of January 9th, the domestic market price of organic silicon DMC is around 14600-14800 yuan/ton, with a relatively high price around 15000 yuan/ton.

Prediction of the future trend of organic silicon DMC market

At present, the trading atmosphere of organic silicon DMC on the market is good, and the mentality of the operators is positive. The transmission between supply and demand has improved, and the overall market buying sentiment has increased. According to the organic silicon DMC data analyst of Shengyi Society, the domestic organic silicon DMC market will mostly operate steadily with a strong bias in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to the changes in supply and demand news.