Recent price trends of calcium carbide

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have temporarily stabilized this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China was 2900.00 yuan/ton, and the weekend price fell by 21.27% year-on-year. On November 19, the calcium carbide commodity index was 75.98, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 64.20% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 36.93% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Insufficient upstream support and weakened downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have temporarily stabilized this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory is average.

The upstream blue charcoal market has stabilized at a low level, while the downstream PVC market prices have slightly declined. This weekend, the price of Shenmulan charcoal intermediate was around 1230-1300 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease in price and weakened cost support. The PVC market price slightly decreased this week, dropping from 5856.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5832.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.41%. Weekend prices fell by 3.17% year-on-year. The PVC market price has slightly declined, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide has weakened. The downstream PVC market has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may fluctuate and decline in the aftermarket

In late November, the calcium carbide market may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and declines. The downstream PVC market has slightly declined, downstream demand has weakened, and the price of raw material blue charcoal has slightly decreased, resulting in insufficient cost support. In the future, it is expected that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will fluctuate and fall in a narrow range in late November, with consolidation being the main trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong has recently declined. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1186.67 yuan/ton, while at the end of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1183.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.28%. The current price has decreased by 12.35% compared to last year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region has fluctuated and declined. From the above chart, it can be seen that the formaldehyde market has mainly fluctuated slightly in the past two months, with a decline this week. As of November 17th, the mainstream market price in Shandong region is 1100-1260 yuan/ton. This week, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated and consolidated, with average cost support. Formaldehyde manufacturers actively shipped, but the market trading atmosphere was relatively cold and the market declined.

Upstream methanol situation: In terms of supply, global coal supply is stable, domestic imports have increased, and the increase in domestic demand is not enough to support the operation of coal prices at high levels; In terms of demand, the overall pressure on inventory in power plants is relatively low. Currently, the terminal mainly relies on long-term replenishment and replenishment according to demand. The demand for coal in the market is relatively flat, and the overall sentiment is biased towards wait-and-see. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors. Downstream demand is expected to increase, but fundamental contradictions are still not significant. The domestic methanol market is mainly fluctuating and consolidating.

The recent weak consolidation of methanol market, poor cost support, and high pressure on formaldehyde inventory are likely to follow the trend. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society predict that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly decline in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 16th, the average price quoted by domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises was 3400 yuan/ton, which was unchanged compared to Monday’s price and increased by 25.15% compared to the same period last year.

Recently, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market has been operating steadily, with holders shipping according to the market. On November 16th, the quotation range for industrial grade 85% formic acid was between 3100-3500 yuan/ton. Recently, the upstream sulfuric acid market prices have been operating steadily, while the upstream methanol market has experienced slight fluctuations. The cost side changes have little impact on the formic acid market. Enterprises mainly ship goods, while downstream inquiries and procurement remain in demand. The overall market trading changes are limited.

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that currently, the upstream sulfuric acid price is temporarily stable, while the upstream methanol is operating in a narrow range with limited cost impact. Downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, rubber, leather, and pesticides are mainly in need of procurement, and the market atmosphere is average. It is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market may stabilize and operate in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of November 15th, the average price of domestic industrial grade premium cyclohexane was 7433.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.45% compared to the same period last week, with a narrow range and weak operation. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, with manufacturers mainly selling out profits and taking orders.

The market price of cyclohexane has slightly declined, with the mainstream price around 7433.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.45% compared to the same period last week. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remains around 7500 yuan/ton, and downstream procurement is on demand, with weak willingness to stock, average demand, and weak upstream support.

Chemical Index: On November 14th, the chemical index stood at 862 points, an increase of 1 point compared to yesterday, a decrease of 38.43% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 44.15% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Cyclohexane analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the stable operation of the cyclohexane market is the main trend, with a narrow range and weak operation.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of November 14th, the average price of PMMA, a general transparent and high-quality product in China, was 14566.67 yuan/ton. This week, the price of PMMA showed a narrow and weak trend, and compared to the same period last week, the price remained stable. Downstream demand procurement was the main focus of negotiations, and the focus of negotiations was stable.

This week, the general transparent grade premium product PMMA in China has shown a stable and weak trend. Compared to the same period last week, the price has remained stable, the purchasing atmosphere is average, and downstream demand is insufficient. Currently, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is still around 14600 yuan/ton. The operating rate is stable, and the overall market supply and demand is balanced. The factory has given up on profits and taken orders, and the cost support is weak. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and the willingness to hoard goods is not obvious.

Rubber and Plastic Index: On November 13, the rubber and plastic index was 675 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 36.32% from the highest point in the cycle of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 27.84% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PMMA analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, PMMA will remain weak and stable, with a limited range of price fluctuations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, from November 3 to November 10, 2023, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China decreased from 7800 yuan/ton last week to 7700 yuan/ton this week, a decrease of 1.28%.

In terms of crude oil: As of November 3rd, international crude oil futures fell. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $80.51 per barrel, a decrease of $1.95 or 2.4%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was 84.89 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 1.96 US dollars or 2.3%. The supply tension caused by the situation in the Middle East has eased.

The factory price of Sinopec pure benzene continued to be 7750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7600 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7603 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7600 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly decreased this week. On November 6th, the price of pure benzene was 7903 yuan/ton, and on Friday (November 10th), the price of pure benzene was 7800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.51% from last week and an increase of 12.23% from the same period last year.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen a positive trend in recent times.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, the crude oil and styrene market both weakened during the week, driving the overall weakness of the pure benzene industry chain. The pure benzene market continued to decline during the week, and the hydrogenated benzene market also fell significantly. The auction price of crude benzene also declined overall during the week, and the downstream pressure on prices was generally strong, resulting in a weak overall trend in the industrial chain.

This week, the pure benzene market continued to decline, with Sinopec lowering its listing price twice to 77500 yuan/ton, and a cumulative decrease of 3000 yuan/ton during the week. The hydrogenation benzene market has followed a significant decline, with a current execution rate of 7600-7700 yuan/ton in East China, and a decrease of 300-400 yuan/ton within the week. In terms of supply and demand, some hydrogenation benzene enterprises that underwent preliminary maintenance began to operate one after another during the week, and the overall operation rate of hydrogenation benzene increased, with on-site supply showing a slight looseness. In terms of demand, the market expects that there will be limited overall changes in downstream operating rates in the future, and there will still be immediate demand. Overall, the pure benzene market is still under pressure due to high inventory and loose supply, and the weak trend of crude oil has limited impact on the industry chain. It is expected that the overall industry chain will still be under pressure in the future, and there may be further downward space. In the future, the focus will be on inventory situation and crude oil trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from November 3rd to 10th, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China dropped from 9450 yuan/ton to 9325 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.91% during the cycle. The price fell 6.68% month on month and 3.79% year-on-year. The spot price of raw material pure benzene has fallen, and Sinopec has lowered its listing twice to 7750 yuan/ton, lacking cost support. The downstream chemical fiber and solvent market demand is average, and more purchases are made on demand. Some production enterprises have restarted their installations, with an expected increase in spot supply, weak fundamentals of cyclohexanone, and a decrease in transaction focus.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: Crude oil futures have experienced a significant decline, coupled with a slight increase in pure benzene production, resulting in a light spot buying atmosphere in the pure benzene market. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is affected by bearish factors.

On the supply side, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 6.55 million tons, and the current operating load is around 60%, which is at a relatively low level. The main production enterprises have limited product supply due to device maintenance. The weekly average operating load of cyclohexanone is 64.33%, which is+0.22% higher than last week. The weekly production is 89400 tons,+0800 tons compared to last week.

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream caprolactam production, and caprolactam is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. The caprolactam market has weakened locally, with recent declines in crude oil and pure benzene prices, weakening cost support, and two downward revisions in the listing price of pure benzene in East China, which has a negative impact on downstream confidence. Although there have been some short-term reductions in the supply of caprolactam, the overall purchasing enthusiasm of downstream polymerization factories is not high, and the prices of some caprolactam enterprises have slightly decreased. The demand side for cyclohexanone is temporarily bearish.

According to future market forecasts, the raw material pure benzene is expected to weaken due to fluctuations, resulting in a lack of cost support. Expected increase in spot supply and inventory of cyclohexanone, downstream follow-up on demand, and cyclohexanone analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market is weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate market was 1003 yuan/ton on November 3, and 976 yuan/ton on November 9. This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market price fell by 2.66%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic ammonium sulfate market price continued to decline this week. At present, the market demand is poor, and downstream and dealer inquiries have decreased. The international market continues to weaken, which has a bearish impact on the domestic market. The bearish sentiment in the industry is obvious, so be cautious when operating. As of November 9th, the mainstream market quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Hebei Province is around 950 yuan/ton. The mainstream factory quotation for domestic ammonium sulfate in Shandong is around 940-980 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the Business Society’s ammonium sulfate market believe that the recent trend of ammonium sulfate prices has continued to decline, with low downstream demand and relatively few transactions on the market. Currently, there is no positive support. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market trend will continue to be weak and downward in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, on the 17th, the average spot market price of nickel was 140541.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.6% from the previous day and a year-on-year decrease of 27.56%.

The rise of the US dollar put pressure on bulls to stop earnings and leave the market, with Lunni closing down 2.52% overnight. Several officials from the Federal Reserve have made hawkish remarks, stating that the US dollar has started a new round of rebound, the overall commodity market is under pressure and falling, and external metals are operating in a weak position. Fundamentally, Indonesia has increased production capacity for intermediate products and nickel plates, and domestic electrolytic nickel production capacity is constantly being released. Surplus expectations are gradually being fulfilled. The situation of nickel oversupply has not been improved, downstream demand for nickel sulfate is sluggish, steel mills are shutting down for maintenance, and nickel price fundamentals are still under pressure. It is expected that the short-term nickel price will remain weak and volatile.

Recent price trends of isooctanol

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province has significantly decreased this week. This week, the average price of isooctanol in the mainstream market in Shandong Province decreased from 12120.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 11280.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 6.93%, and the weekend price increased by 18.32% year-on-year. On November 6th, the isooctanol commodity index was 82.06, a decrease of 0.88 points from yesterday, a decrease of 40.32% from the highest point of 137.50 points in the cycle (2021-08-08), and an increase of 133.46% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream support increases, downstream demand weakens

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong have slightly decreased this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 7100.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6958.25 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 2.01%, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.60% at the weekend. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. Due to the impact of supply and demand, it has a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the DOP market price has slightly decreased this week. The price of DOP decreased from 11275.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 11191.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.74%, and the weekend price increased by 8.45% year-on-year. Downstream DOP prices have slightly declined, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol has weakened.

Future prospects

In mid November, the Shandong isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The upstream propylene market has an upward trend at the end of the month, with good cost support. The downstream DOP market has slightly declined, and downstream demand is average. Business Society Isooctanol analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and increases due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.