According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic spandex market continued to decline in December. As of December 29th, the price of 40D spandex was 32125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.38% from the beginning of the month and a year-on-year decrease of 9.51%.

The cost side continues to weaken, and the pure MDI market for raw materials is declining. The spot reference in the East China region is between 20000-20300 yuan/ton for wire transfer in barrels for self pickup, a decrease of 500-1000 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The overall wait-and-see atmosphere in the market is strong, and downstream inquiries are light. In December, the raw material BDO was weak and downward, with average overall cost support. The PTMEG market declined, and mainstream factories quoted 17000 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 1500 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. As of the end of December, the overall operating rate of the industry was around 78%.

Under the seasonal off-season background, the terminal elasticity, weaving, and printing and dyeing startup rates have slightly declined to around 72%. In terms of exports, as the end of the year approaches, there are signs of a rebound in foreign trade orders. In November, textile and clothing exports amounted to 23.66 billion US dollars, a decrease of 1.8%, and a month on month increase of 3%. Among them, textile exports amounted to 11.12 billion US dollars, a decrease of 0.5%, and a month on month increase of 3.8%. Clothing exports amounted to 12.55 billion US dollars, a decrease of 3%, and a month on month increase of 2.4%.

According to analysts from Business Society, as the Chinese New Year approaches, terminals will gradually take a break from mid January, leading to a rapid decline in production in the weaving industry and further contraction in demand. Due to insufficient cost support, it is expected that spandex prices will remain weak in January 2024.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the average quotation for EPS ordinary materials at the beginning of the month was 10075 yuan/ton, and the average price for EPS ordinary materials on weekends was 10000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.74% and a decrease of 4.76% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In early December, crude oil weakened, styrene declined, and cost support weakened. The EPS wait-and-see atmosphere remains unchanged, with merchants maintaining their essential needs while the negotiation atmosphere is average. The EPS market may have slightly weakened consolidation, with the reference price for EPS ordinary materials in the South China region being around 9500-9600 yuan/ton (including tax).

In late December, with the rising prices of crude oil and styrene, supported by favorable cost factors, manufacturers raised their prices, and merchants increased their prices for shipments. The market atmosphere slightly improved, but the buying mentality remained cautious, and the continued pursuit of higher prices for styrene was limited. The market once again stabilized and consolidated.

3、 Future Market Forecast

EPS is affected by the upstream pull up, and the market atmosphere has slightly improved. It is expected that the domestic EPS market may experience a narrow range of fluctuations.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the mixed xylene market in December first fell and then rose, and overall declined. On December 29th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 6950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.84% from 7080 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the low point of the cycle was 6900 yuan/ton.

The external price of mixed xylene has risen, and port inventory has increased

Affected by the rebound in crude oil prices, the price of toluene in Asia gradually rose in December. As of December 28th, the price of isomeric grade xylene in Asia was between 906-907 US dollars per ton. The mixed xylene port inventory has increased compared to the previous period, putting pressure on the mixed xylene market. It is understood that as of December 28th, the total inventory of xylene in East and South China amounted to 41000 tons, a significant increase from 27500 tons in late November.

The overall crude oil price fell first and then rose this month. The cost support for mixed xylene was weak at the beginning and then strong at the end

The international crude oil prices continued to fluctuate in December, providing weak and strong support for the cost of mixed toluene. As of December 28th, WTI02 contract settlement is 71.77 yuan/barrel; The settlement price of Brent 03 contract is 77.15 US dollars per barrel.

Stable operation of xylene and necessary support for stable mixing of xylene

In December, the spot supply of xylene was normal, and the domestic PX operating rate remained above 80%. However, there were still some equipment repairs, and there was little change in spot supply. In December, international crude oil prices fluctuated and declined, and the country cancelled the preferential tax rate for imported PX from Taiwan. As a result, the price of PX in the foreign market rose. As of the 28th, the closing price in Asia was 1002-1004 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1027-1029 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has been maintained, and overall, the operating rate of xylene plants in the Asian region is around 80%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region is normal, but the domestic xylene market prices have increased due to the rise in foreign prices.

The production of phthalic anhydride is declining, and the demand for mixed xylene is weakly supported

Part of the domestic phthalic anhydride plants have been shut down for maintenance, resulting in a decline in the operating rate of phthalic anhydride and a decrease in the supply of phthalic anhydride. In addition, the shortage of naphthalene phthalic anhydride supply has led to an increase in the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride, which in turn has driven up the adjacent phthalic anhydride market. As a result, phthalic anhydride manufacturers have low inventory and have raised their factory prices, leading to an upward trend in the phthalic anhydride market.

Domestic mixed blending demand weakened during the off-season mixed xylene demand support

Since the fourth quarter, the domestic mixed blending market has been in the off-season, with weak downstream inquiries, and the demand for mixed xylene continues to weaken. The nationwide refinery operation in December fluctuated narrowly around 7.1-7.3.

Market forecast: In the short term, the international crude oil range will fluctuate, and the cost of mixed xylene will still have some support. Domestic supply will continue to accumulate, and it is expected that mixed xylene will consolidate weakly in the later stage.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyishe, the domestic sulfuric acid market prices dropped significantly in December. The market price of sulfuric acid dropped from 302 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 278 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 7.95%, and the month end price fell by 4.69% year-on-year.

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have dropped significantly this month, and the inventory levels of manufacturers are relatively low.

Cost side: Sulfur market fluctuates and rises

From a cost perspective, the ex factory price of sulfur in East China fluctuated and increased in December. The price of sulfur increased from 1060 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1093.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 3.14%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 13.91% year-on-year. The upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, with good cost support, which has a positive impact on the price of sulfuric acid.

On the demand side: Downstream market drops significantly

From the demand side, the market for monoammonium phosphate experienced a significant decline in December. The price dropped from 3500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 3370 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 3.71%, and the month end price increased by 4.73% year-on-year. The downstream market of sulfuric acid has significantly declined, and downstream manufacturers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid.

Looking at the future: In mid to early January, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline, with consolidation being the main trend. The downstream market for monoammonium phosphate has significantly declined, and downstream enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid has weakened. Upstream sulfur prices are showing a downward trend, with weakened cost support. The sulfuric acid analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the sulfuric acid market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, with consolidation being the main trend.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong fell in December. At the beginning of the month, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5062.50 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 4900.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.21%, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.54%.

Upstream methanol situation: In December, the domestic methanol market first rose and then fell. In terms of supply, due to the impact of the cold wave, most parts of the country experienced a cliff like cooling, leading to a significant increase in daily consumption of power plants and an increase in terminal stage purchases. However, downstream acceptance of high priced market coal is limited, and transportation continues to be mainly based on long-term contract coal; The cold wave weather has to some extent boosted the consumption of electric coal, and there are still expectations of an increase in daily consumption of power plants on the basis of high levels. Some terminal demand purchases with insufficient coal reserves continue to be released. Business Society Methanol Analyst predicts that the domestic methanol market is mainly weak and consolidating.

In recent times, the domestic methanol market has been mainly fluctuating downward, with poor cost support. Downstream demand remains strong, and analysts from Shengyishe Polyformaldehyde predict that prices may slightly decline.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of isobutyraldehyde has slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market increased from 7966.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8033.33 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 0.84%, and the weekend price increased by 21.72% year-on-year. On December 25th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 40.95, an increase of 0.17 points from yesterday, a decrease of 61.21% from the highest point in the cycle of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 35.96% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde have seen fluctuations in their quotations and low inventory this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde has slightly increased this week, with prices rising from 6895.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6928.25 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.47%, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.10% over the weekend. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly increased, leading to increased cost support and a positive impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde due to the impact of supply and demand.

From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market situation of new pentanediol has slightly increased, with the market price rising from 9525 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9800 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 2.89%. The weekend price has increased by 6.19% year-on-year. The market situation of neopentyl glycol has slightly increased, and downstream demand has increased, which has a positive impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

In late December, the trend of isobutyraldehyde market may fluctuate and rise. The downstream market for new pentanediol has slightly increased, and downstream procurement enthusiasm has increased. The upstream propylene market has slightly increased, with good cost support. Business Society isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and increases due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from December 18th to 25th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price fell from 16000 yuan/ton to 15900 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.62% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 1.75%, and a year-on-year increase of 4.74%. The domestic aggregated MDI market has experienced a narrow decline, with temperatures plummeting in many regions. The terminal market has been hindered by construction, resulting in a significant decrease in demand follow-up capabilities. The quoted prices of traders have slightly declined, maintaining their willingness to ship.

On the supply side, the 400000 ton/year MDI plant of Wanhua Chemical (Ningbo) Co., Ltd. will begin maintenance on November 15th, and the 800000 ton/year plant of the second phase will start shutdown maintenance on December 3rd. The two sets of plants will undergo maintenance for about 50 days each. Chongqing BASF will conduct maintenance on December 25th, lasting about a month. Chongqing BASF’s 400000 ton/year plant is expected to undergo maintenance on December 25th, lasting about a month. The supply side is influenced by favorable factors.

On the cost side, pure benzene as the raw material has seen a narrow upward trend in the domestic pure benzene market. International crude oil futures have continued to rise, providing positive support to the domestic pure benzene market in terms of mentality. Downstream styrene has seen a significant increase, and some downstream units have been put into operation as scheduled, resulting in a slight increase in demand compared to the previous period. As of December 25th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 7062.17 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: The domestic aniline market is weak and consolidating. As of December 25th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyishe is 10462.50 yuan/ton. The cost impact of aggregating MDI is mixed.

On the demand side, the downstream demand side has seen a decrease in operating load, especially in the spraying and pipeline industries where transaction power is limited, resulting in a weak market atmosphere. The demand for short-term aggregated MDI is affected by bearish factors.

In the future market forecast, the supply side is relatively stable, and the overall follow-up of the downstream demand side is limited. Business Society’s aggregated MDI analysts predict that domestic aggregated MDI may continue to narrow down.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate market was 776 yuan/ton on December 18th, and 806 yuan/ton on December 22nd. This week, the price of domestic ammonium sulfate market increased by 3.86%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic ammonium sulfate market price has risen this week. At present, domestic demand is stable, and a small amount of foreign orders are being followed up. Downstream demand is still acceptable, purchase on demand, dealers replenish at low prices, and have a resistance to high prices. As of December 22, the mainstream market price for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Hebei Province is around 750-780 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation for ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 780-850 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Business Society, the price trend of ammonium sulfate has been stable and rising recently. The supply side is stable, while the demand side needs to be released. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market will experience narrow fluctuations and consolidation in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of this week was 11800 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon over the weekend was 11733 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.57%.

The prices quoted by domestic activated carbon manufacturers are generally stable, with some being weak. The ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China ranges from 9500 to 12500 yuan/ton, and the market is not moving fast, with orders being the main focus and transactions falling short of expectations. The focus is on market transactions.

Coconut shell charcoal has a certain amount of sales in areas such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges, especially gold charcoal, which receives more inquiries from the African market; The supply of fruit shell charcoal with medium to low indicators is smoother. There is a recent rebound in imported carbonized materials, and the industry can pay more attention to it.

Prediction: The performance of the activated carbon market is weak, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic EVA market has been fluctuating and weakening, with a concentrated decline in spot prices last week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 17th, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 11700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.36% from the beginning of the month and a weekly decrease of 5.14%.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

In terms of raw material ethylene, the contraction of domestic spot circulation eased at the end of last month, and the current favorable situation is exhausted. Due to the lower intention of downstream industries to purchase goods at the end of the year, the flow of goods on site is not smooth. At the same time, distant oil prices fluctuated and fell, while ethylene fell due to various bearish factors. It is expected that the future market trend may continue to be weak;

Although the vinyl acetate industry is still in the traditional off-season, there has been no significant increase in demand. But recently, the supply has been tight, and the actual price of on-site trading has been high. Manufacturers and merchants have maintained stable pricing. Upstream glacial acetic acid and ethylene fluctuated, with overall support being mediocre. Last week, the market for EVA raw materials fell and remained stable, providing moderate support for the EVA market.

In terms of supply:

Since early December, the load level of domestic EVA enterprises has continued to rise. The industry’s operating rate has increased from around 80% at the beginning of the month to the current 87%, with weekly production increasing simultaneously and market supply remaining abundant. The mentality of the petrochemical plant is weak, and the factory price has been lowered. The maintenance plan for future equipment is insufficient, and the shipment volume will remain at a relatively high level. The overall inventory position of EVA is on the rise, and merchants tend to offer at a discounted price. Overall, recent EVA suppliers have shown poor support for spot goods.

In terms of demand:

Last week, the demand side of EVA showed weak performance. The new quarter orders for foam shoe materials have limited impact on the driving force of trading, and the purchasing level of photovoltaic enterprises is lower than expected. On exchange trading is concentrated on low-end offers, and the logic of buyers buying on dips remains unchanged. Lack of market buying sentiment and resistance to the return of high priced goods.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the EVA market has been consolidating after a decline last week. The raw material market provides moderate support for EVA spot prices. The industry load has returned to a high level, and downstream demand is weak. Market confidence has been hit, and the profitability of enterprises has significantly declined. At present, some petrochemical plants have reduced their order operations, but there is no expectation of supply side contraction or signal of increased consumption in the future, making it difficult for the market to change the bearish guidance situation. It is expected that the EVA market will remain weak in the short term, and it is recommended to closely monitor the load situation of enterprises.