According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of February 29, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 1052 yuan/ton. Compared with February 1, the basic price has decreased by 4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in February, the overall domestic phosphate ore market showed a slight decline. On the eve of the Spring Festival, the overall performance of the phosphate ore field was relatively calm, with most of the domestic ores suspended and mining suspended, and the trading atmosphere in the phosphate ore field was light. During the holiday period, the phosphate ore market was generally in a semi closed state, with no significant fluctuations in supply and demand. After the holiday, the overall production of phosphate ore has been average, and some mining areas are still in the closed mining stage. The downstream demand for phosphate ore has recovered relatively slowly, and new orders have been average. Some mining enterprises have narrowly reduced the prices of mid to high-end grade phosphate ore after the holiday. The reduction is around 10-20 yuan/ton. As of February 29th, the domestic market price for 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1000-1100 yuan/ton. The specific price may vary depending on factors such as the original ore specifications and powder to block ratio, and the specific price needs to be negotiated based on actual orders.

Prediction of future market for phosphate ore

At present, the overall construction of the phosphate ore market is steadily recovering, and the downstream market will also enter a stage of demand boosting with the warming weather. Therefore, the phosphate ore data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will mostly stabilize with a slight recovery, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the impact of factors such as demand and downstream shipments.

According to data monitored by Business Society, the price of carbon black increased significantly in February, with a significant increase after the Spring Festival. As of the 29th, the domestic N220 carbon black market price was 9966 yuan/ton, an increase of nearly 600 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month.

In terms of raw materials, the market price of coal tar has risen this month. As of the 28th, the price of coal tar was 4430 yuan/ton. Before the Spring Festival, most coke companies maintained a certain level of production restriction, and the supply and demand performance of the coal tar market was tight. After the Spring Festival, the third round of price reduction for coke fell, and coke companies were about to lose profits, leading to a decline in operating rates. The supply of coal tar in the coal tar field was tight, and downstream enterprise raw material inventories were quickly digested, greatly increasing their enthusiasm for purchasing coal tar, In some regions, coke companies have implemented significant production restrictions, resulting in tight supply of coal tar on site and an increase in prices. At present, the high-temperature coal tar market has maintained a stable operating state after a significant upward trend, providing strong support for the cost of carbon black. It is expected that the price of coal tar will continue to be strong in March..

Starting situation: From the perspective of post holiday operating rates compared to the previous period, most carbon black enterprises are currently operating steadily, with some maintaining high levels..

In terms of terminals, the tire industry experienced a significant shutdown during holidays before and after the Spring Festival, resulting in a significant decline in overall production. After the holiday, most downstream tire industry enterprises have resumed production, and the tire industry has resumed work and increased production, resulting in a significant increase in production and improved shipments. The current market inquiry enthusiasm has significantly increased, and the demand for raw material carbon black is still acceptable.

Import and export situation: According to customs data, China imported 24000 tons of carbon black in December 2023, an increase of 16.37% year-on-year and 6.47% month on month; From January to December 2023, China imported a total of 274000 tons of carbon black, an increase of 163.55% compared to the same period last year, with imports increasing by approximately 170000 tons. According to customs data, China’s carbon black exports in December 2023 were approximately 75300 tons, an increase of 43.03% year-on-year and 20.06% month on month. From January to December 2023, China’s cumulative export of carbon black reached 727000 tons, a decrease of 9.98% compared to the same period last year, and the export volume decreased by approximately 80600 tons

Production data: In January 2024, China’s carbon black production was 490300 tons, an increase of 37.22% year-on-year and 4% month on month.

In the future, the high-temperature coal tar market has improved, providing stronger support for the cost of carbon black; The downstream tire industry is still in a seasonal off-season, and the overall trading atmosphere is relatively cold. With early holiday arrangements, the demand for raw material carbon black is slightly flat, and it is expected that the carbon black market will operate steadily, moderately, and strongly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market prices increased significantly in February. The market price of sulfuric acid increased from 187.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 203.75 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 8.67%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 19.57% year-on-year.

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have fluctuated this month, and the inventory levels of manufacturers are relatively low.

Cost side: The sulfur market has significantly increased

From a cost perspective, the post holiday sulfur market has a positive trading atmosphere, smooth refinery shipments, and an increase in sulfur prices. In February, the price of sulfur increased from 933.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1020 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 9.29%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 8.66% year-on-year. The upstream sulfur market has significantly increased, with good cost support, which has a positive impact on the price of sulfuric acid.

On the demand side, the downstream market fluctuates narrowly

From the demand side, the follow-up of new orders in the ammonium phosphate market is weak, and the trading atmosphere is weak, with a decline in the focus of ammonium phosphate transactions. The market price of monoammonium phosphate in February decreased from 3133.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 3120 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.43%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 6.31% year-on-year. The downstream market of sulfuric acid has slightly declined, and downstream manufacturers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid.

Looking at the future: In mid to early March, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience a slight fluctuation and rise, with consolidation being the main trend. Although the downstream market for monoammonium phosphate is consolidating at a low level, the downstream’s enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid is weak. But the upstream sulfur prices have significantly increased, leading to increased cost support. The sulfuric acid analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the sulfuric acid market may experience slight fluctuations and gains due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, with consolidation being the main trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the PVC spot market prices will remain stable and increase after the year. On February 17th, the average domestic PVC price was 5566 yuan/ton, and on February 26th, the average price was 5592 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 0.47%.

2、 Market analysis

After the year, the spot market price of PVC will remain stable with an increase. At present, the spot market situation is average, and the trading situation is relatively light. The manufacturer’s quotation is mainly stable. Traders have relatively flexible prices, and market transaction prices fluctuate. Downstream markets are more wait-and-see, and if you just need to pick up the goods, use a little to pick them up. Actual transactions remain cautious. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 type carbide materials in China is mostly around 5540-5850 yuan/ton.

In terms of crude oil, on February 23rd, international crude oil futures plummeted by nearly 3%. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $76.49 per barrel, a decrease of $2.12 or 2.7%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $80.80 per barrel, a decrease of $1.90 or 2.3%. The main reason is that the Federal Reserve has released hawkish signals, delaying expectations of interest rate cuts and suppressing market confidence.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to data monitored by Business Society, the prices of calcium carbide manufacturers will decrease after the year. On February 17th, the average price of domestic calcium carbide was 2933.33 yuan/ton, and on February 26th, the average price was 2900 yuan/ton, with a 1.14% decrease in prices during the week. With the recovery of logistics transportation, enterprise shipments have improved, production enterprises are actively shipping, and inventory has decreased.

3、 Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts from Business Society believe that the PVC spot market will be average after the year. Upstream calcium carbide has been lowered, with average support. Traders have more flexible prices, with market prices fluctuating. Downstream factories are more cautious and restock as needed. It is expected that the PVC spot market will fluctuate and consolidate within the short term, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.

After the holiday, the price of tetrachloroethylene fell narrowly

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 18th, the domestic price of tetrachloroethylene was 4083 yuan/ton, a narrow decrease from the price of 4116 yuan/ton on February 8th before the holiday; With sufficient market supply in mid January but weak trading, prices began to decline slightly in February. After the holiday, the market followed the pricing of large factories, and the price of tetrachloroethylene fell narrowly.

The trend of stronger downstream refrigerants

The refrigerant market continued to rise strongly near the Spring Festival, with a significant increase. The factory offer for R125 has increased to 45000 yuan/ton, with a market price increase of 9000 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month. Due to the increasing demand for air conditioning production and after-sales stocking in March, exploratory offers from enterprises continue to rise.

According to a tetrachloroethylene analyst from Business Society, although the expected increase in short-term market trading is limited as companies resume operations after the holiday, overall, there is still a bullish expectation for the tetrachloroethylene market after the holiday as downstream refrigerants tend to operate stronger.

Review of the 2023 market situation of polyaluminum chloride

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the average price of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride in the domestic market in 2023 was 2033.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and 1777.50 yuan/ton at the end of the year, with an annual decline of 12.60%. The highest point of the year occurred on January 1st at 2033.75 yuan/ton, and the lowest point of the year occurred on August 29th at 1700.00 yuan/ton, with a maximum amplitude of 16.41%. The market for polyaluminum chloride will experience a high-level decline in 2023.

According to the monthly K-bar chart data of the 2023 polyaluminum chloride market from Business Society, the polyaluminum chloride market experienced more declines and less gains in 2023, with 4 months of upward movement and 8 months of downward movement. The highest increase was in October, up 1.45%, and the highest decrease was in April, down 3.81%.

From January to early September, the market for polyaluminum chloride continued to decline. Water treatment enterprises in China’s main production areas had normal production, sufficient spot inventory, unfavorable downstream procurement demand, weak industry prosperity, and a sustained weak market for polyaluminum chloride. From mid September to the end of the year, the market for polyaluminum chloride slightly rebounded, and the domestic market remained in a state of oversupply. The polyaluminum chloride market remained low, and market purchasing enthusiasm increased. In addition, some raw material prices rebounded, leading to an upward trend in polyaluminum chloride prices.

Market forecast for polyaluminum chloride in 2024

Cost side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market will experience a wide range of fluctuations in 2023. The average price at the beginning of the year was 174 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the year was 112.50 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year decline of 35.34%. The East China region is one of the main regions for hydrochloric acid production in China. Among them, Jiangsu Province is one of the important bases for hydrochloric acid production in China, with hydrochloric acid production ranking first in the country. In 2024, with the strengthening of environmental protection policies, some hydrochloric acid production enterprises may be forced to stop or reduce production, and hydrochloric acid production may decrease.

Supply side: According to incomplete statistics, there are currently more than 300 polyaluminum chloride production enterprises in China, with an annual production capacity of over 300000 tons (calculated based on a solid alumina content of 30%), mainly used for water treatment. The production capacity of northern regions, represented by Henan and Shandong, accounts for about 70% of the total domestic production capacity. In addition, due to abundant raw material resources, the Gongyi region of Henan has formed an industrial cluster with more than 130 local production enterprises, accounting for more than 50% of the total production capacity. It plays a leading role in balancing domestic supply and demand and has become a typical production base. At the same time, these enterprises have established distribution offices in Guangdong and other regions to implement regional structural adjustments in production and consumption. The northern region is gradually becoming a production base for polyaluminum chloride. The demand in the southern region continues to grow, becoming the main domestic consumption area.

Demand side: In addition to being used for traditional domestic water, industrial water, and urban sewage treatment, polyaluminum chloride can also be used for the treatment of pulp and paper wastewater, pharmaceutical wastewater, and printing and dyeing wastewater. As of 2023, the number of urban sewage treatment plants in China has exceeded 2000, with a daily processing capacity of 170 million cubic meters. At the same time, more and more rural areas are starting to build sewage treatment facilities, further promoting the development of the industry. With the strengthening of people’s environmental awareness and the strengthening of national environmental supervision, the application scope of polyaluminum chloride in water treatment will become increasingly broad, and the development prospects are optimistic.

Market forecast: Currently, the supply of polyaluminum chloride in China exceeds the demand, making it a buyer’s market with high market competition pressure. In 2024, China’s polyaluminum chloride inventory remains abundant; Although the demand for polyaluminum chloride has increased in 2024, the market is still in a state of oversupply. It is expected that the overall polyaluminum chloride market will fall in 2024.

Since February (2.1-2.7), the dichloromethane market has been weak and declining. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 7th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2172 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.61% from 2277 yuan/ton on the first day. The price of raw material methanol has fluctuated higher, the price of liquid chlorine has significantly decreased, and the cost support for dichloromethane is weak; The cautious demand for downstream goods before the holiday is gradually weakening, and the inventory of enterprises has slightly increased, but the overall pressure is still acceptable. The dichloromethane market is weak and consolidating, with mainstream bulk water prices for dichloromethane in Shandong region around 2150-2250 yuan/ton as of February 7th.

Recently (2.1-2.7), the domestic supply of methane chlorides has slightly increased.

Recently (2.1-2.7), the price of raw material methanol has risen, while the price of liquid chlorine has fallen, resulting in weak support for the cost of dichloromethane. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of February 7th, the spot price of methanol was 2640 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.06% from 2561 yuan/ton on the 1st. As of February 7th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region is around 1 yuan/ton, which is significantly lower than the previous price.

As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream construction is temporarily stable at a low level, and demand is gradually weakening, weakening support for dichloromethane.

Market forecast: According to data analysts from Business Society’s methane chloride market, the demand for dichloromethane is weak in the short term, with a slight increase in supply and a consolidation of cost fluctuations. Overall, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will be mainly weak before the holiday.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 3133 yuan/ton on February 1st, and 3116 yuan/ton on February 6th. This week, the market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate decreased by 0.53%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3966 yuan/ton on February 1st, and 3966 yuan/ton on February 6th. The market price of diammonium phosphate remained stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

On Monday of this week, the price of ammonium slightly decreased, while the price of diammonium remained stable. The prices of raw materials such as phosphate ore and sulfur remain strong, while the prices of raw material synthetic ammonia have declined, resulting in limited cost support. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, market trading is weak and new orders are less traded. As of February 6th, the market price of 55 powder ammonium in Hubei region is around 3000-3100 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 55 powder ammonium in Henan region is around 3100 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The outbound price of 64% diammonium in Shandong region is around 3920-4050 yuan/ton, and the outbound price of 57% diammonium is around 3620-3650 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of raw material sulfur, domestic sulfur prices have increased this week. The sulfur unit is operating normally and the market supply is sufficient. The utilization rate of downstream production capacity has decreased, and the enthusiasm for sulfur procurement has weakened, resulting in weak market trading. As of February 6th, the reference price for sulfur in East China is around 980 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material phosphate ore, the overall supply and demand adjustment of phosphate ore is not significant this week. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream stocking and winter storage of phosphate ore have come to an end, and the overall market remains stable and stable. The fluctuation of the phosphate ore market is relatively small, and the overall market is relatively quiet. As of February 6th, the domestic market price for 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1030-1100 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Business Society, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, companies are gradually taking a break. The inquiries in the ammonium phosphate market have decreased, and the transaction atmosphere is sluggish. It is expected that the short-term trend of ammonium phosphate market will be weak and stable.

The price of ortho xylene has stabilized this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 5th, the price of ortho xylene was 8000 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the price of ortho xylene on January 26th, which was 8000 yuan/ton. The price of raw material mixed xylene has stopped rising and fallen, while the cost of ortho xylene has decreased; The price of phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable, downstream demand is average, and the price of ortho xylene is temporarily stable.

Raw material mixed with xylene stopped rising and fell

According to the mixed xylene commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of February 5th, the price of mixed xylene was 7330 yuan/ton, which is a decrease of 0.81% compared to the price of mixed xylene on January 26th, which was 7390 yuan/ton. The decline in crude oil prices, coupled with the approaching year-end and the end of downstream stocking, has led to poor demand for mixed xylene, resulting in a decrease in mixed xylene prices and increased downward pressure on ortho xylene.

Future prospects

According to analysts from Business Society, the price of mixed xylene has stopped rising and fallen this week, resulting in a decrease in the cost of ortho xylene. The end of pre year stocking has led to a decrease in downstream customer purchasing enthusiasm, insufficient demand for ortho xylene, and increased downward pressure on ortho xylene. Overall, the cost of ortho benzene has decreased and the demand is not good. It is expected that the price of ortho benzene will remain weak and stable in the future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the mainstream ex factory price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate, including tax, was 7400.00 yuan/ton this week. The current price has decreased by 1.20% month on month and 18.46% year-on-year.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate has stabilized this week. From the above chart, it can be seen that the potassium carbonate market has mainly fluctuated slightly in the past three months, and the market has remained stable this week. Recently, the market price of potassium chloride has been fluctuating and consolidating. Downstream demand remains low, and the potassium carbonate market is consolidating. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream ex factory quotation range for industrial grade potassium carbonate in China this week is around 7200-7300 yuan/ton (for reference only), and the quotation varies depending on the procurement situation.

Recently, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers have fluctuated and fluctuated. In mid to early February, the trend of potassium chloride market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge are temporarily stable, and the market situation is average. Downstream agricultural demand is average, industrial demand weakens, and the price of potassium chloride may fluctuate and fall in the future.

Recently, the market for potassium chloride in China has been consolidating, with downstream demand for essential purchases maintained. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly decline in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see.