According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, from March 8th to 15th, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market dropped from 781 yuan/ton to 9731 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.51% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 0.57%, and a year-on-year increase of 2.25%. The domestic price of cyclohexanone is on a wait-and-see basis, and the recent consolidation of raw material pure benzene has strengthened the cost support. The spot supply of cyclohexanone is stable, and downstream demand is mostly followed up. Due to a slight rebound in the pure benzene market, the cyclohexanone industry has stopped falling and stabilized.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: domestic pure benzene prices are relatively high. The domestic production of pure benzene has limited changes, and the downstream demand for pick-up is stable. However, the number of imported goods on board has increased, and port inventories have slightly accumulated. As of March 15th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 8508.83 yuan/ton. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price trend of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 7.14 million tons, and the current operating load is about 60%, which is at a relatively low level. The average weekly operating load of cyclohexanone is 68.67%, and the weekly production is 104100 tons, which has decreased compared to the previous cycle. The supply of cyclohexanone is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream production of caprolactam, which is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. The sales of caprolactam and downstream PA6 chips have improved, and the market has stabilized. However, there are still concerns about the supply of caprolactam in the later stage of the market, and the polymerization factory mainly purchases raw materials on demand. The demand side for cyclohexanone is temporarily bearish.

In the future market forecast, pure benzene will operate in a volatile manner, with relatively stable cost support. There is not much spot supply of cyclohexanone, and downstream demand is uncertain. Business Society cyclohexanone analysts predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly consolidate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 14th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6600 yuan/ton, which is a decrease of 0.45% compared to the reference average price of 6630 yuan/ton on March 8th.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 14th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6683 yuan/ton, which is a 0.75% increase compared to the reference average price of 6633 yuan/ton on March 8th.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic phosphate market has shown mixed performance this week. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been lowered, resulting in insufficient cost support and a slight decrease in the price of thermal phosphoric acid. At present, the demand for thermal phosphoric acid in the market is relatively light, and the transaction atmosphere is not good. This week, the demand for wet process phosphoric acid in the market has increased, and the trading atmosphere is good. Manufacturers and distributors have raised their prices. Driven by demand, the operating rate of wet process phosphoric acid has increased.

As of March 14th, the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 6600 yuan/ton, and the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6500-6700 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6000-7450 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the focus of the yellow phosphorus market continued to decline, and the trading situation on the market was average. The manufacturer mainly issues preliminary orders, but new orders have limited transaction volume. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is poor, demand is average, and there are many cases of underpricing procurement. It is mainly wait-and-see, and the procurement is more cautious. Overall, the market situation for yellow phosphorus is relatively light. As of March 14th, the market price for yellow phosphorus is around 22500-23300 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of raw material phosphate ore. This week, the overall domestic phosphate ore market is in a stable and consolidating operation after a slight increase. In some regions of China, mining companies have continued to maintain previous prices, and the overall market adjustment is limited. Downstream rigid demand procurement is the main focus, and the recovery of the end market is relatively slow, with little pressure on the supply side of phosphate ore. As of March 14th, the domestic market price for 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1000-1100 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s phosphoric acid analyst believes that the current performance of the phosphoric acid market is inconsistent, with a strong trend in wet process phosphoric acid and a weak trend in hot process phosphoric acid, and the market follows the trend of raw materials and demand. It is expected that the short-term price of thermal phosphoric acid will continue to weaken and consolidate, while the price of wet process phosphoric acid will continue to rise.

Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the market trend of sodium acetate trihydrate was narrow and weak this week, with a price of 2383 yuan/ton on March 13th, a decrease of 0.69% compared to February 13th.

In terms of raw material soda ash: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic light soda ash price on March 13th was 2046 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13.65% compared to February 13th. The supply of spot soda ash has started to fluctuate at a high level, and the inventory of enterprises continues to accumulate. In terms of downstream demand, procurement is not active, and multi-dimensional support is needed to replenish inventory. The price of soda ash is operating in a weak market.

Regarding raw material acetic acid: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic acetic acid price on March 13th was 3115 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.05% compared to February 13th. The operating rate of acetic acid enterprises is relatively high. In March, acetic acid manufacturers have no maintenance plans, and the market supply of goods may be mainly high. Downstream product demand is weak, and there is limited purchasing of acetic acid. There is a lack of favorable conditions on site, and the market price of acetic acid has been lowered one after another.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the overcapacity and price decline of upstream products have led to a weakening of the price of sodium acetate trihydrate, and it is expected that sodium acetate trihydrate will operate in a weak market in the future.

This week, the market for ethyl acrylate has been fluctuating and weakening. There is also inventory pressure in the ethyl acrylate market, which provides limited support for the actual cost of ethyl acrylate. The fundamental stalemate in the market continues, and the supply and demand structure in various regions of China remains stable. There is not much change in enterprise equipment. As of March 12th, the benchmark price of ethyl acrylate in Shengyishe was 9480 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.26% compared to last Monday (9505 yuan/ton).

Supply side

At present, there is no significant fluctuation in the acrylic acid production equipment, and the inventory of spot supply is currently at a limited level. This week, the production capacity utilization rate of the acrylic acid industry was around 70%, a decrease of -0.34% compared to last week. The price of acrylic acid in the market remained stable and slightly increased, with lower end prices falling slightly. The weekly average price increased by 1.19% month on month; The weekly average price of propylene in Shandong fell by 0.23%, and the overall market slightly declined;

Demand side

The downstream acrylic resin, coating and other industries of ethyl acrylate mainly maintain rigid demand consumption, and the enthusiasm for downstream inquiries increases with the quotation of ethyl acrylate; The main focus is on maintaining fixed consumption of adhesive tape master rolls, and the procurement volume is mainly focused on small orders with a high demand; Acrylic acid lotion industry maintains rigid demand procurement.

Overall

According to the analysis of the follow-up of the upstream and downstream chain market trends and the transmission progress of market influencing factors, the current market situation of ethyl acrylate may still be affected by the overall weak situation as an intermediate, and the stalemate situation may still require clear assistance and stimulation.

Price trend chart of trichloroethylene

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the barrel price of trichloroethylene continued to be weak this week, with an average price of 6840 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 6560 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 4.09% during the week.

Analysis and Review

The price of trichloroethylene continues to decline, and the trading atmosphere on the market is light. The enthusiasm for raw material procurement has weakened, and the price of new orders is close to cost. Manufacturers have further weakened their profit sentiment. On March 6th, the barrel prices of manufacturers in East China slightly increased, but the market inventory is large and shipments are active. The quota policy for third-generation refrigerants on the demand side has been implemented, and the pattern of the refrigerant industry continues to optimize. The price war among manufacturers has weakened, and the refrigerant industry as a whole has entered a business cycle. In addition, with the upcoming peak season for downstream refrigerant stocking in March, manufacturers have a strong attitude towards price support, and the domestic refrigerant R134a price has risen strongly.

Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s trichloroethylene analyst believes that the upward price of refrigerant R134a on the demand side provides good support for trichloroethylene, and it is expected that trichloroethylene will fluctuate in the future market.

This week (3.4-8), the domestic ethyl acetate market showed weak performance, with prices fluctuating and falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of Friday, the decline in ethyl acetate was 2.24%, with a cumulative range of 100-200 yuan/ton. The main reason is the weak performance of supply and demand.

Since the beginning of this week, the supply and demand in the ethyl acetate market have been weak. On the one hand, the cost side has shown pressure. Since March, the price of acetic acid has continued to decline, with a decrease of nearly 2% this week. More importantly, downstream ethyl esters have been affected by weak supply and demand, leading to stable production by manufacturers and an increase in supply after the holiday; However, due to weak demand and negative pressure from both supply and demand, the price of ethyl ester has not remained stable. This week, Shandong’s main large factories bid for shipments, with the starting price lowered twice, exceeding 100 yuan/ton, suppressing market confidence. The market follows suit, dealers lower prices to ship, resulting in a bearish decline in prices.

It is expected that the ethyl acetate market will remain weak and volatile in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the price execution of raw material acetic acid and ethyl acetate manufacturers. At present, the mainstream transaction price in the market is between 6400-6600 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, as of March 7th, the price of high-quality power grade lithium iron phosphate is 43240 yuan/ton, and the price of lithium iron phosphate has shown a steady increase, with a weekly increase of 0.56%. After the holiday, the demand for lithium iron phosphate in the market has improved, and in March, sales of new energy vehicles have slowly recovered. The upstream raw material end has shown a strong trend, and currently, the lithium iron phosphate market is showing obvious benefits.

2、 Market analysis

In February, the production and sales of lithium iron phosphate were affected by the Spring Festival holiday, and terminal demand slowly recovered. The inventory of new energy vehicles was relatively high, mainly based on consumption inventory. After the holiday, it entered March, and the demand for new energy vehicles steadily increased. The upstream raw material lithium carbonate market rebounded, boosting the overall industry chain and strengthening the confidence of positive electrode material enterprises. Leading enterprises increased by about 40%, and the increase in raw material prices drove up the price of lithium iron phosphate, At present, the downstream demand side is improving, orders are increasing, and the overall trend is mainly strong.

In terms of cost: On March 6th, imported lithium ore prices increased by 50-250 yuan/ton, domestic lithium ore prices increased by 50-150 yuan/ton, and lithium ore prices ranged from 100 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton within the week. Currently, upstream carbonate prices have continued to rise for several days, and the market transaction atmosphere is improving. Lithium iron phosphate has strong support on the cost side, with prices passively rising and mainly rising.

In terms of demand: Currently, the new energy vehicle sector continues to improve, but the growth rate has slowed down. According to the latest data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in January 2024, China’s new energy vehicle production was 787000 units, with sales of 729000 units, an increase of 85.3% and 78.8% year-on-year, respectively. In January, the market share of new energy vehicles reached 29.9%. In February, wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicle manufacturers in China reached 450000 units, a decrease of 9% year-on-year and 34% month on month. There were relatively few working days in February, Due to the relatively weak automobile consumption before and after the Spring Festival holiday, sales in February showed a downward trend. Entering March, sales of new energy vehicles rebounded, and it is expected that retail sales of new energy vehicles in March will be around 560000 units, a month on month increase of 27.5%, a year-on-year increase of 25.8%, and a penetration rate of about 35.2%.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In summary, against the backdrop of the rapid development of new energy vehicles, as the main raw material for producing lithium batteries, the demand for lithium iron phosphate will continue to grow, and downstream demand will skyrocket. Currently, the price of upstream lithium carbonate is hovering around the cost line, and there will be no major decline in the short term. The main trend is to maintain stability, strength, or narrow upward trend. Therefore, the price of lithium iron phosphate is prone to rise but difficult to fall in the short term.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 6th, the average market price of phenylenediamine was 36166 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from last week.

In terms of cost

Recently, pure benzene has been experiencing consecutive days of poor shipments and a decrease in price.

The nitric acid market is mostly dominated by inquiries after the holiday, with prices continuing to decline and insufficient support for phenylenediamine in the cost side.

In terms of demand

The downstream operating rate has increased, and after the holiday, we will resume work and replenish goods as needed. The demand for customers to purchase dyes, pesticide intermediates, and other products has not significantly improved.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, upstream pure benzene saw weak consolidation and nitric acid prices continued to decline. Downstream urgent replenishment, industry insiders are mostly wait-and-see, market transactions are weak, and the stable operation of meta phenylenediamine in the later stage is the main focus.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the price of chloroacetic acid fell in February, with a price of 3175 yuan/ton as of February 29th. At the beginning of the month, the average price of chloroacetic acid was 3275 yuan/ton, but decreased by 100 yuan/ton within the month, a decrease of 3.05%, and a price drop of 10.1% compared to the beginning of the year.

Affected by the decline in upstream acetic acid prices, the price of chloroacetic acid has shown a weak downward trend.

Affected by rainy and snowy weather, logistics and transportation in the northern region are restricted, and acetic acid factories have poor shipments. Enterprise inventory has accumulated, and the market trading atmosphere is weak, resulting in a downward trend in acetic acid market prices.

Future analysis

At present, the trading atmosphere inside the chloroacetic acid market is light, and the shipping pace is average. However, as logistics transportation gradually recovers, the low inventory of upstream acetic acid will provide some support to the chloroacetic acid market, and the weak situation will be alleviated. In the short term, the chloroacetic acid market will mainly operate steadily, and specific trends still need to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, the price of raw silk reached historic highs this week (2.24-3.1). As of March 1st, the average price of raw silk in the domestic market was 530350 yuan/ton, an increase of 12000 yuan/ton or 2.32% compared to last week’s price of 518350; The average market price of dried cocoons is 165000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2500 yuan/ton or 1.54% compared to last week’s price of 162500 yuan.

This week, the electronic raw silk index and monthly spot prices have repeatedly reached historic highs, with the raw silk index in the Chinese cocoon silk trading market rising by 1.84%. In terms of the spot market, it is understood that in recent days, the specific prices of various grades and specifications of raw silk from silk reeling enterprises have mostly increased, mostly around 5000/ton, some higher, and some factories have already made transactions, some waiting for downstream acceptance of transactions; Some silk reeling enterprises have just started production and have not yet made a quotation or transaction. High quality raw silk units have shown varying price increases, and transactions have been more active compared to last week.

On the silk floss, some silk floss enterprises in Guangxi have reported that the price of silk floss has not increased, and it is currently basically at the level at the end of last year. Many home textile companies have only started construction and have not had much trading volume, so the price increase is not visible; Some enterprises in Zhejiang have reported that they are still supplying old customers at pre year prices, while others have reported an increase in raw material supply under the current situation.

On the price of dried cocoons, after the 15th anniversary, there have been reports of high prices for dried cocoons, leading to a significant gap in psychological expectations between buyers and sellers for prices, increasing the difficulty of transactions. The number of transactions this week was relatively small, and the transaction prices were basically the same as last week. Since last winter and this spring, stimulated by the high cocoon prices, the overall sales of mulberry seedlings in Jiangsu Subei, Zhejiang Hangjiahu, and local mulberry seedling bases in Guangxi have been good. The price of grafted seedlings has increased compared to the same period last year, and new mulberry expansion momentum is good in areas with foundations.

Downstream silk and satin enterprises have engaged in price adjustments for a small number of units and varieties this week, mostly ranging from 1 to 2 yuan; Some companies can only make minor adjustments to the conventional domestic sales of goods, while others still offer prices based on previous years in hopes of closing deals. Some silk factories have reported that the price of silk has increased, but the price of silk remains stable and there is a lot of pressure; Some companies have reported that the prices of domestic products that are currently being sold are basically not increasing or slightly increasing, and some customers are very sensitive to prices as they do not take the goods even after a slight increase; A silk factory has reported that export sales are mostly small orders. On the whole, there is an uneven distribution of hot and cold sales both domestically and internationally, with uneven distribution of hot and cold among different varieties, and the performance of enterprises continues to differentiate. Some innovative and fashionable fabrics are in high demand, with prices steadily increasing. However, competition between suppliers and rising raw material costs continue to put pressure on orders.

From the wholesale markets of silk clothing in Hangzhou and other cities, it can be seen that this week is in the period of opening in fifteen years, with a good opening state, but the foot traffic is still not high. It is expected that the wholesale trend will change with the start of exhibitions in various regions after March, the rhythm of regular delivery periods, and the rise in temperature.

In the current market environment of overall oversupply, with the transparency of overall consumption degradation, there is great competition pressure in the fabric and clothing product market, and the difficulty for enterprises to synchronously raise prices is also increasing. From all aspects, the market is recovering, but there is still some time before the true peak season, and the overall direction of the market needs to be observed. The key to the subsequent market trend also depends on whether the demand of downstream customers can be boosted.