Recently, the price of epichlorohydrin has continued to decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 22, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8662.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.48% compared to the beginning of this month (8975.00 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors:

Raw material side: Recently, the price of propylene in the market has risen, and the price of liquid chlorine has been running weakly and steadily. In addition, some liquid chlorine enterprises have undergone equipment maintenance due to malfunctions, resulting in a decrease in liquid chlorine exports and pressure on the cost of epichlorohydrin. Therefore, the price of liquid chlorine has remained firm in multiple aspects. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of August 22, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6890.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.72% compared to the beginning of this month (7083.25 yuan/ton).

Downstream demand side: Downstream mainly focuses on essential procurement, with a cold trading atmosphere and insufficient order volume. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment is strong, market atmosphere is weak, and the market is declining.

Market forecast:

An epoxy propane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current cost of epoxy propane is under pressure, downstream new orders are generally followed up, and transactions are mainly driven by demand. It is expected that in the short term, the epoxy propane market will mainly operate weakly and steadily, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in raw material prices.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash remained stable this week. As of August 19th, the average market price of soda ash was 1820 yuan/ton, unchanged from the price of 1820 yuan/ton on August 13th, with a month on month decrease of 5.99%.

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the soda ash market is running weakly and steadily. On the supply side, the utilization rate of soda ash production capacity has declined this week, resulting in a decrease in soda ash production. The overall total inventory of manufacturers remains at a relatively high level; On the demand side, there is an expectation of cold repair in the terminal market. The downstream glass industry mainly consumes inventory, with limited market procurement. The market has strong supply and weak demand, and the price of soda ash is running weakly. As of August 19th, the price of soda ash in East China has slightly decreased, with mainstream market prices for light soda ash ranging from 1700 to 2000 yuan/ton; The price of soda ash in central China is relatively weak, with mainstream market prices for light soda ash ranging from 1600-1850 yuan/ton.

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the glass price market is weakly declining. As of August 19th, the market average price was 16.85 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 2.43% compared to the market average price of 17.27 yuan/square meter on August 13th. The glass market is operating at a high level, with sufficient inventory and weak downstream demand. The market is bearish, and some production lines have already undergone cold repairs, which may slow down the decline in glass prices in the future.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 33rd week of 2024 (8.12-8.16), there were 0 products that rose, 3 products that fell, and 3 products that rose or fell zero in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities experiencing a decline are baking soda (-4.85%), PVC (-0.93%), and caustic soda (-0.75%). The average increase or decrease this week is -1.09%.

Future forecast: Currently, the operating capacity of soda ash plants is at a high level, the inventory of spot alkali plants is sufficient, downstream glass industry has cold repair expectations, limited demand, weak trading in the soda ash market, and lack of favorable market conditions. Overall, it is expected that soda ash will continue to operate weakly in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

On August 16th, the domestic adipic acid market continued to be sluggish. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 16th, adipic acid was 9250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton or 0.85% from next week.

2、 Market analysis

Cost aspect:

The price of raw material pure benzene has slightly increased, with some cost support. The average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market has dropped from 9406 yuan/ton to 9325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.86% during the cycle. Downstream demand is weak, and the domestic cyclohexanone market is experiencing a weak downward trend, resulting in a lower focus on transactions.

Supply side:

From the perspective of market supply, in terms of equipment, the operating load of succinic acid this week was around 6.8%, while the operating load of adipic acid decreased compared to last week. The main manufacturers are raising prices, and there may be expectations of price reductions in the future due to inventory pressure. Due to weak demand, the manufacturer’s shipment speed has slowed down. At present, there is a lack of favorable guidance on the supply side.

3、 Future forecast

An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the price of pure benzene in the upstream has rebounded and the price of cyclohexanone is still declining. There is a long short game on the cost side, and downstream demand in the market is still in an inactive stage. It is expected that the domestic adipic acid market will mainly operate weakly in the short term.

This week, the price of plasticizer DOP hit bottom and rebounded

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 16th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9051 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 2.16% compared to the DOP price of 9251 yuan/ton on August 9th last weekend; Compared to August 15th, the DOP price of 9001 yuan/ton hit the bottom and rebounded, with an increase of 0.56%. Jin Jiu is approaching, and terminal demand is slowly recovering. The order situation has slightly increased, and the market sentiment is showing positive expectations. The weather has turned cooler, and the willingness of injection molding industry terminals to stock up has increased. The construction and infrastructure industry is expected to slowly recover in September, and the demand for plasticizers has rebounded. The price of plasticizer DOP has hit the bottom and rebounded.

Raw material isooctanol prices hit bottom and rebounded

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 16th, the price of isooctanol was 8300 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 4.60% compared to the price of 8700 yuan/ton on August 9th last weekend; Compared to August 15th, the price of isooctanol rebounded and rose by 0.40% to 8266.67 yuan/ton. Part of the isooctanol manufacturers are undergoing maintenance, and during the weekend, the isooctanol from the Luxi manufacturer was sealed, resulting in a decrease in supply and an increase in pressure for isooctanol supply; The demand for plasticizers is expected to rebound, downstream enterprises are expected to increase their enthusiasm for raw material procurement, and manufacturers of isooctanol are more willing to raise prices. The support for the price increase of isooctanol is increasing, and the price of isooctanol has hit the bottom and rebounded.

The price of raw material phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price trend of phthalic anhydride in the domestic phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and fell this week. As of August 16th, the price of phthalic anhydride in the phthalic anhydride process was 7850 yuan/ton, which was a fluctuation of 0.32% compared to the price of 7875 yuan/ton on August 9th. Domestic neighboring phthalic anhydride is priced at 7700-7800 yuan/ton before leaving the factory, while domestic naphthalene phthalic anhydride is priced at 7300-7400 yuan/ton before leaving the factory. This week, the price of industrial naphthalene fluctuated and rose, while the naphthalene phthalic anhydride market remained strong and stable. The ortho benzene market fell, and cost support decreased, resulting in a decline in the ortho benzene phthalic anhydride market. The demand for plasticizers is expected to rebound, and the support for the rise of phthalic anhydride still exists. The downward space for phthalic anhydride is limited, and there is a strong willingness to build a bottom for phthalic anhydride.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol has bottomed out and rebounded, while the price of phthalic anhydride has a strong willingness to bottom out. Therefore, the expected cost rebound of plasticizer DOP has been adjusted; In terms of demand, Jinjiu is approaching, and terminal demand is slowly recovering. The demand for plasticizers is expected to rebound, and the support for the rise in plasticizers is increasing. In the future, the cost of plasticizer raw materials has bottomed out and rebounded, and downstream demand is expected to rebound. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and rise in the future.

Last week (August 5-11), the fundamental performance of the upstream raw material caprolactam market for nylon filament was flat, with stable prices; The downstream demand needs to be followed up, and the nylon filament market is consolidating horizontally. Manufacturers are mainly holding steady and observing. The industry operating rate remains stable, with little change in on-site supply. The inventory levels of various manufacturers are average, and inventory pressure is not high. The downstream terminal market performance is average, and the weaving operating rate continues to decline. Overall, the cost demand is average, and the nylon filament market is weak and stable, with a wait-and-see attitude.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price trend of nylon filament remained stable last week (August 5-11). As of August 11, 2024, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 18640 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous week’s price. The price of nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is 16275 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.. The price of nylon FDY (premium: 40D/12F) is reported at 19725 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous week’s price.

Weak decline in raw materials

Last week (August 5-11), the market fundamentals for nylon filament raw material caprolactam remained stable, with limited support for nylon filament. The supply expectation is slightly tight, and downstream nylon PA6 production remains at a high level, with stable demand. The supply expectation of caprolactam is slightly tight, and it is expected that the caprolactam market will be slightly better organized in the later stage.

Nylon PA6 chips, currently with stable raw material prices, have limited cost support, and downstream on-demand procurement has created a strong trading atmosphere in the market. It is expected that the caprolactam market will stabilize and weaken in the later stage.

Supply demand

This week (August 5-11), nylon manufacturers maintained stable operating loads and sufficient supply of goods. In August, it was the traditional off-season for textiles, and downstream demand was weak. The weaving start-up rate continued to decline, and downstream manufacturers continued to purchase according to demand, resulting in a downward trend in demand for nylon spinning.

Future forecast

The spot market for raw materials such as caprolactam and PA6 is expected to be slightly better organized, with normal on-site supply and weak downstream demand. With the disappearance of high temperature weather, the trading atmosphere for nylon civilian silk may slightly rebound, but it will still be mainly based on on-demand procurement. Business analysts predict that the short-term nylon filament market will follow the operation of raw material consolidation, and prices will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in a narrow range.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of aniline has risen strongly this week. On August 4th, the market price of aniline was 9825 yuan/ton, and on August 9th it was 10550 yuan/ton. The price increased by 7.38% compared to last week and decreased by 5.32% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

This week, the aniline market rebounded strongly and experienced three consecutive increases. Due to the continuous decline in aniline prices in the early stage, enterprises entered a state of loss and smoothness. Mainstream factories began to actively promote price increases, which led to an increase in market purchasing and sales enthusiasm. Downstream buyers rose and entered the market, and the market atmosphere improved. Upstream effectively destocked.

Pure benzene: The pure benzene market has been fluctuating recently, with a slight rebound this week. However, due to sufficient supply and weak demand, the upward trend is weak, and the overall trend is slightly downward. On August 1st, the average price of pure benzene was 8438 yuan/ton, and on August 9th, the average price of pure benzene was 8420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.25% during the period.

3、 Future expectations

The current aniline market is stable in terms of purchase and sales, and the upstream cost pressure has been effectively released. Considering the downstream acceptance level, the resistance to further price increases, and it is expected that the market will consolidate in the short term.

This week, the domestic acrylic acid market prices remained stable, with prices in the South China acrylic acid market ranging from 6600-6625 yuan/ton. The market price of raw material propylene has been lowered. The cost support of the acrylic acid market has weakened, and the downstream butyl acrylate market is experiencing a downward trend. The atmosphere in the venue is deadlocked, with limited cost support, downstream users mainly consuming contracts, cautious spot purchases, flexible offers from butyl acrylate suppliers, and weak market negotiation focus. Recently, the trend of raw materials has been declining, and the market for acrylic acid is cool. Under the guidance of multiple market factors, the price of acrylic acid remains stable due to the smooth flow of goods in the yard.

The main reasons for the market price of acrylic acid are as follows:

In terms of cost

International oil prices continue to rise, but there is an expectation of increased supply in the current market, and the impact of low-priced sources is significant, which has limited support for price trends, resulting in weak prices in the propylene market. The mainstream price in East China is between 7100-7150 yuan/ton, and there are still some downstream buyers in Zhejiang who have a strong desire to buy, but they mainly rely on contracts and small contracts for volume trading.

In terms of demand

The main downstream acrylic esters are mainly on the rise, and recently the butyl acrylate market has been declining. The price of butyl acrylate in East China is around 9000-9150 yuan/ton, and the atmosphere in the market is deadlocked, with limited cost support. The center of gravity of n-butanol market prices is declining, with a price of 7650 yuan/ton in the Shandong market. The wait-and-see atmosphere is intensifying, and mainstream factories are actively offering discounts and reducing inventory. Downstream users are cautious in their operations, and low-priced transactions are the main trend in the market. The domestic n-butanol market is operating weakly.

Overall

The domestic acrylic acid market price is temporarily stable, and the cost side propylene price is running weakly, supporting the weak price of the acrylic acid market; The demand side is driven by the support of other raw materials and the tight supply flow, which still provides sufficient support for the current acrylic acid market. Business analysts predict that in the future, the cost pressure on acrylic acid companies will increase and the recovery of terminal demand will be slow, making it difficult to maintain the subsequent rise of acrylic acid and esters.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of acetic acid fluctuated and rose in July, with a price of 3325 yuan/ton as of July 31. Compared with the acetic acid price of 3080 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, it increased by 245 yuan/ton during the month, with an overall increase of 7.95%.

As of the end of the month, the market price details of acetic acid in various regions of China in July are as follows:

Region/ On July 1st/ July 16th/ July 31st

South China region/ 3100 yuan/ton/ 3225 yuan/ton/ 3175 yuan/ton

North China region/ 3100 yuan/ton/ 3375 yuan/ton/ 3225 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 3080 yuan/ton/ 3350 yuan/ton/ 3275 yuan/ton

Jiangsu region/ 2955 yuan/ton/ 3200 yuan/ton/ 3175 yuan/ton

Zhejiang region/ 3055 yuan/ton/ 3300 yuan/ton/ 3275 yuan/ton

The acetic acid market fluctuated strongly in July. At the beginning of the month, the manufacturer’s equipment was operating normally, the company’s supply of goods was sufficient, downstream demand was sluggish, the market trading atmosphere was average, the company’s inventory accumulated, and the price of acetic acid continued to decline in June; In the middle of the month, the bidding prices in the northwest region continued to rise, and there was a strong intention to increase prices in the market. Downstream buyers actively entered the market, and the market trading atmosphere improved. Acetic acid prices in many places rose; In the latter half of the month, the recovery of demand side procurement was weak, and some manufacturers had poor shipments, resulting in a significant decrease in acetic acid prices. At the end of the month, the bidding prices of the main factories in the northwest remained strong and rose, while other regions were optimistic, leading to a rebound in acetic acid market prices.

The methanol market on the raw material side is weak and volatile. As of July 31st, the average price in the domestic market was 2510.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.89% compared to the beginning of the month price of 2532.50 yuan/ton. During the month, the overall supply of methanol market was sufficient, and downstream demand remained weak. Except for some methanol plant maintenance and downstream stage procurement, which boosted the market to a certain extent, the overall performance of methanol prices was weak, and market trading was limited. The methanol market is observing and consolidating its operation.

Market forecast: Business analysts believe that the price of acetic acid is rebounding and rising, and the supply side plans to have more equipment maintenance in August, resulting in a decrease in market supply; On the demand side, downstream customers follow up on demand for goods, and the market mentality is mainly wait-and-see. Considering the impact of buying up rather than buying down sentiment, it is expected that the acetic acid market price will be strong in August, and specific attention will be paid to downstream replenishment in the future.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8622 yuan/ton on July 1, and the average price was 8404 yuan/ton on July 31, with a price drop of 2.53% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 10650 yuan/ton on July 1st, and the average price was 9950 yuan/ton on July 31st, with a price drop of 6.57% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8595 yuan/ton on July 1st, and the average price was 8137 yuan/ton on July 31st, with a price drop of 5.32% during this period.

The trend of polyethylene continued to decline in July, with high-pressure products experiencing a significant decline. The international crude oil market fluctuated weakly in July, and the cost side was somewhat bearish on the polyethylene market. With the gradual restart of the polyethylene maintenance equipment in the early stage, there is an expected increase in the supply side. On the demand side, it is in the traditional off-season, with a decrease in the operating rate of downstream product industries, limited order follow-up, a bearish market mentality, and a poor atmosphere for on-site transactions; There is no positive news in the macro aspect; There are many negative factors, with production companies continuously lowering their quotes and traders subsequently lowering their prices, with a focus on offering discounts for shipments.

On July 30th, the Dalian Commodity Exchange polyethylene L2409 contract opened at 8234 yuan and closed at 8172 yuan, a decrease of 78 yuan, with a high of 8245 yuan and a low of 8164 yuan, a decrease of 0.95%. The polyethylene futures market fell weakly in July, and the bearish futures market suppressed the spot market.

The high-pressure unit of Qilu Petrochemical will start operating at the end of July, and other units will also be restarted gradually; In addition, the LLDPE and LDPE units of Zhongtian Hechuang were restarted at the end of July and are currently in operation; The maintenance of newly added devices in August has decreased, and there are expectations of an increase in the supply side; The demand for PE market may begin to rebound in mid to late August, and agricultural film will enter the seasonal peak season in September. At the beginning of August, market demand may not increase significantly, and there is currently no positive support. It is expected that polyethylene will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 30th, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 7950.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.95% compared to the price on July 1st (reference price of epichlorohydrin was 7875.00 yuan/ton).

The market price of epichlorohydrin increased slightly in July. At the beginning of the month, the cost support was strong, and production enterprises mainly focused on delivering orders. The price of propylene method remained firm, and the low-priced supply in the market decreased. In the traditional off-season of terminals, downstream customers mainly followed up with small orders and urgent needs. Entering the second half of the month, there is still cost pressure, with the capacity utilization rate of the supply side industry below 50%. Manufacturers are not pressing down on prices, and downstream companies are cautious about following up on high-end prices. Market transactions are mainly driven by essential needs, and the focus of market negotiations is firm. In the latter half of the year, production enterprises mainly deliver contract orders, and terminal follow-up is relatively slow. Downstream demand is mainly focused on low demand follow-up. The negotiation range for epoxy chloropropane market is sorted out, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.

Upstream propylene: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 29th, the reference price of propylene was 7098.25, a decrease of 0.49% compared to July 1st (7133.25). In July, the price of raw material propylene fluctuated slightly, providing some support for the epichlorohydrin market.

Market forecast:

Short term costs and supply side support are still acceptable, with downstream demand buying being the main trend. The market atmosphere is deadlocked, and it is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will remain stable with small movements in the short term. More attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.