In December, domestic liquid ammonia reversed the previous month’s upward trend and prices turned downward. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the decline of liquid ammonia in Shandong region in December was 7.88%. As of the end of the month, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is between 2450-2600 yuan/ton.

Equipment resumption increases supply and increases supply volume

From a supply side perspective, there has been a shift in the supply and demand structure. As we enter December, the operating rate has increased. Previously, maintenance companies have resumed work one after another, coupled with an increase in ammonia conversion capacity. The inventory pressure of enterprises is high, and in order to alleviate the pressure, factory prices continue to be lowered. Furthermore, with a large import volume, low-priced foreign goods are impacting the domestic market. Supply is in an oversupply situation. During the month, major factories in Shandong have repeatedly lowered the ex factory price of liquid ammonia, with a range of 200 yuan/ton. From the demand side, as we enter winter and the traditional off-season, downstream industries such as urea and compound fertilizers lack support, and industrial demand remains rigid with little fluctuation. Downstream weakness has further exacerbated the supply-demand imbalance.

The cooling of the industrial chain and the lukewarm upstream and downstream markets

From the diagram of the liquid ammonia industry chain, it can be seen that there has been little improvement in the upstream and downstream environment of liquid ammonia. After a long-term decline in the upstream natural gas industry, there has been a slight rebound with limited growth and little support. As of the end of the month, the monthly increase was 2.85%. Especially in the downstream sector, it is still generally cold, with more declines and less gains, especially in urea, where the decline is significant. This is mainly reflected in weak downstream demand and the off-season in agriculture. Currently, the increase in compound fertilizer production is lower than market expectations. The terminal production in the industrial demand field is also showing a downward trend. The market is generally dominated by rigid demand, and the demand side is restricting the ammonia market from getting out of the slump.

From the perspective of downstream urea, the urea market has shown a sluggish performance, with a monthly decline of up to 8.56% in December according to Shengyi Society. On the one hand, the supply performance is sufficient, but domestic urea manufacturers have insufficient ammonia conversion and high inventory. Combined with weak exports. On the other hand, there was no significant increase in downstream procurement volume, and the market performance remained calm.

Market forecast:

Business analysts believe that from the supply side, there is not much pressure on the market supply, and the impact tends to weaken as the equipment is on and off. The mentality of enterprises to raise prices is gradually strengthening, and there may be an increase in ammonia conversion enterprises in the later stage, with a trend of increasing ammonia production. However, overall, it is difficult for a large-scale market oversupply to occur in the short term.

On the demand side, in the short term, demand remains stable, and expectations for the later period may be weak. On the one hand, as the holiday approaches, trading is light. In addition, during the off-season of agricultural demand, industrial demand remains mainly driven by rigid demand. Overall, downstream demand for liquid ammonia may continue to drag down its price recovery in the later stage.

Taking all factors into consideration, the price of liquid ammonia will be difficult to emerge from the haze in the near future due to supply and demand pressures. In the later stage of the supply-demand game, there may still be downward space for the ammonia market. We need to pay attention to the manufacturer’s equipment start-up news in the later stage.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 31, the price of lead 1 # was 16810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.70% from the lead price of 17100 yuan/ton on December 29.

This week’s market analysis

After experiencing a sharp decline last Friday, lead prices continued to maintain a weak trend this week. Although some downstream enterprises are willing to purchase on demand at lower prices, the supply of refined lead is still tight in some areas. The inventory of smelters and the social inventory of lead ingots have continued to decline.

Fundamentals

This week, the operational focus of Shanghai lead continues to show a downward trend. In terms of cargo holders, most choose to ship at a higher price, and their quoted premiums have generally increased compared to last Friday. However, the supply of goods from refineries is not sufficient. Some refineries choose not to ship, while others insist on a high price shipping strategy. It is worth noting that in response to the year-end inventory clearance demand, a few refineries have taken measures to reduce their quoted premiums.

Demand side

Downstream enterprises are adopting a wait-and-see attitude and cautious in their procurement behavior in the current market environment. As a result, the transaction volume in the individual order market is relatively light.

Inventory situation

As of December 30th, the total social inventory of lead ingots reached 53100 tons, a decrease of 0.31 tons from December 23rd; Less than 700 tons compared to December 26th.

comprehensive analysis

After the New Year’s Day holiday, we still need to pay attention to the consumption expectations of downstream enterprises resuming normal operations after the year-end account closure and inventory factors are lifted, as well as pre holiday distributors hoarding and ordering goods. The lead market may once again see a double increase in supply and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market continued its previous downward trend last week (12.23-27). As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4962 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.20% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Since December, the PVC market has shown weak performance, with prices continuously fluctuating and falling. Last week, due to the lack of fundamental positive fundamentals, The price of PVC has been declining. On the one hand, there is a lack of favorable guidance from upstream crude oil and ethylene. In addition, the declining performance of the futures market has put pressure on the spot market. The performance of the supply and demand side is loose, and the operating rate of manufacturers is generally high, with more than half of the manufacturers operating at full capacity. The supply pressure is high, and dealers generally offer low prices. Downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, with low enthusiasm for inquiry based procurement and a sluggish market atmosphere. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 4800-5050 yuan/ton.

In terms of upstream calcium carbide, since December, the price of calcium carbide has started to decline, mainly from high levels. According to data monitored by Business Society, the price of calcium carbide rose or fell by 0 last week. But it has already fallen by more than 2% within the month, and overall, the price increase of calcium carbide market this week is weak, with limited support. Moreover, with downstream PVC falling back into a slump, the price of calcium carbide may also experience a fluctuating trend.

3、 Future forecast

The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the supply and demand of PVC will be weak, the operating rate of manufacturers will remain high, and both enterprise inventory and market inventory will be high. On the cost side, the upstream price of calcium carbide is unlikely to continue its upward trend, and the cost support is average. From the perspective of the futures market, the PVC futures market has performed poorly in the later stage, affecting the confidence of the spot market, and the spot market is generally bearish. It is expected that the PVC spot market will continue to maintain a narrow adjustment in the short term, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in early December, the price of dichloromethane water in Shandong Province rose to 3098 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.51% compared to the beginning of the month; As of December 27th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong region was 2725 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 8.86%.

In the first week of December, dichloromethane in Shandong continued to rise, with a slight increase. The maintenance of enterprise equipment has not been restored, the manufacturer’s quotation is firm, downstream demand is insufficient, and there is a strong wait-and-see attitude. Inventory is under pressure, and the manufacturer’s quotation has been lowered, causing the market to fall. After a continuous decline in prices, downstream enthusiasm for receiving goods has increased, export orders have increased, and manufacturers have raised their prices accordingly.

On the supply side: It is understood that the maintenance equipment of the enterprise has not yet been restored within the month and is expected to restart soon. Another enterprise equipment will undergo maintenance in rotation. The workload for starting work next month will increase slightly.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic methanol market continues to rise, with high holding costs, tight supply at certain stages, stable demand, and continuous destocking by enterprises. As of December 27th, the spot price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2711.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.58% from the beginning of the month. The market for liquid chlorine in Shandong has experienced a wide decline, with weak demand and downward pressure. Currently, the average price is at 100 yuan/ton, and at the beginning of the month it was between 300-500 yuan/ton.

On the demand side: With the gradual recovery of downstream industry demand and the expected growth of domestic demand, especially the strong promotion of the refrigerant market, there are few annual quotas left, waiting for the restart of the new annual quota. In terms of price, external market adjustments and expected price increases in quarterly order negotiations have driven the market back into an upward channel. Today’s quotation has risen by 1000-2000 yuan/ton to 42000-43000 yuan/ton, which is expected to support the upward trend of dichloromethane market.

Business analysts believe that the fluctuation of raw materials is difficult to form support, supply is expected to increase, upward momentum is hindered, refrigerant quotas are restarted, operating loads are increasing, prices are bullish at high levels, and demand support is strong. It is expected that the dichloromethane market will operate steadily, moderately, and strongly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on the 26th, the styrene market fell weakly. From a news perspective, international oil prices have been fluctuating recently, with raw material prices slightly falling and news support weakening. During the off-season of demand, the market mentality is poor, downstream demand is weak, and styrene is under pressure to decline. It is expected that the styrene market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from December 18th to 25th, the domestic ethanol price fell from 5250 yuan/ton to 5105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.76% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 24.79%. The price of ethanol in the domestic market has dropped significantly, with high supply and average downstream gas purchasing, causing manufacturers to continuously lower prices.

On the cost side, the market price of raw material corn is weak and falling, and the inventory of southern ports is rising. There is a lot of storage pressure, and the ports are still receiving goods one after another. Traders have a high enthusiasm for shipping, maintaining high quotes and low prices, and there is a lot of bargaining space. Recently, downstream procurement enthusiasm has been low, port transactions have been limited, and the rise in futures prices has been weak. Traders have generally lowered their quotes by 10-20 yuan/ton. The cost of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side, the supply in various regions remains stable, and the operating load is gradually increasing. In some areas, there may be an increase in spot supply. There are hardly any favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.

On the demand side, Baijiu consumption support is acceptable; Methyl ethyl ester maintains stable purchasing volume for anhydrous materials; Ethyl acetate is rumored to be operating at a high level. The short-term impact of ethanol demand is expected to break through.

The future market forecast shows that the spot supply is abundant, the terminal Baijiu consumption has little change, and the demand side support is limited. The ethanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the short-term domestic ethanol market will mainly be weak.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on December 20th, the domestic cyclohexanone market price reference was 9000 yuan/ton. On December 15th, the domestic cyclohexanone market price reference was 9125 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.37%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that this week (12.15-12.20), the domestic cyclohexanone market has been weak and declining. In the first ten days, the cyclohexanone market gradually rose, with a decrease in low-priced supply and a high market price. Entering this week, the cyclohexanone market has fallen from a high level, and the market focus continues to decline. As of December 20th, the domestic cyclohexanone market price in Shandong is around 9000 yuan/ton, and the cyclohexanone market price in South China is around 9250 yuan/ton.

On the demand side: Currently, downstream users of cyclohexanone are showing a decrease in purchasing enthusiasm, and are gradually becoming resistant to high priced goods. The overall market transmission is slow, and the support provided by the demand side for cyclohexanone is loose.

Supply side: Currently, the tight supply situation in the cyclohexanone field has eased, and the transmission from the supply side has slowed down, providing weak support to the market.

In terms of cost: Currently, the market for pure benzene on the raw material side has slightly weakened, and the cost support for cyclohexanone has also weakened compared to the previous period.

In terms of upstream pure benzene: On December 19th, the reference price of pure benzene was 7556.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.98% compared to December 1st (7338 yuan/ton).

Market analysis in the future

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the domestic cyclohexanone market is light, and there is a certain wait-and-see sentiment in the market. The market is weak and consolidating. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the mixed xylene market fluctuated and rose from December 16 to December 23, 2024. On December 16th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 6030 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.33% from 6110 yuan/ton on December 23rd. This week, the xylene market fluctuated upwards, with refinery inventories in Shandong operating at a low level and overall ex factory prices rising. The inventory of ports in East China is relatively low this week, and the overall market atmosphere is strong. Traders have a strong reluctance to sell, and the market is holding up prices. But with weak downstream procurement, the downstream’s intention to continue entering the market is slightly lower. Overall, this week’s favorable supply side has boosted the overall strength of the market, but lacks downstream support, resulting in insufficient momentum for the market to continue rising.

Cost aspect: Currently, the crude oil market is mixed with bearish factors, and geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. The protection of OPEC+production reduction atmosphere still exists, but the pessimistic demand will still suppress oil prices. Overall, the international crude oil market is mainly volatile. As of December 20th, the settlement price of the main international crude oil futures contract was $69.46 per barrel, an increase of $0.08 or 0.1%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $72.94 per barrel, an increase of $0.06 or 0.1%.

Supply side:

On December 20th, Sinopec’s xylene quotation summary showed that the company is currently operating normally, with stable production and sales. The company’s quotation remains unchanged from the previous day. As of December 20th, East China Company quoted 6200 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5950 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6150-6200 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5870 yuan/ton.

On the demand side, the external market for xylene has slightly rebounded, and demand support is still acceptable

On December 23rd, the price of xylene in the petrochemical sales company was temporarily stable, with a current execution price of 7150 yuan/ton. This price was implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units operated stably and sold normally, with prices unchanged from December 16th. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of December 20th, the closing prices of the Asian xylene market were $805-807/ton FOB Korea and $830-832/ton CFR China, an increase of $25/ton compared to December 13th.

Market forecast: The recent trend of the crude oil market is volatile, with limited guidance for the spot market. In terms of downstream demand, there is currently insufficient momentum to continue chasing high demand, and the lack of demand support is expected to weaken the xylene market in the future

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market first rose and then fell this week. As of December 22, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 6560 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.82% from 6380 yuan/ton on December 16.

On the supply side: Last weekend, the production unit of maleic anhydride unexpectedly shut down, causing a significant decline in the supply of liquid anhydride in the market. At the beginning of the week, the main factory price of maleic anhydride increased by 1000 yuan/ton, and dealer quotations followed suit. On weekends, factories tend to execute early week orders, while downstream customers maintain a wait-and-see attitude. New orders are limited, and the market price of maleic anhydride has fallen slightly. As of December 22nd, the ex factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6900 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of liquid anhydride is around 6700 yuan/ton.

Upstream: This week, the international crude oil market fluctuated downward, and the overall n-butane market slightly declined. As of December 22, the price in Shandong was around 5200 yuan/ton.

Downstream: The unsaturated resin market has been steadily rising this week, mainly due to the rise in the market for unsaturated resin raw material maleic anhydride, which has put pressure on the cost of unsaturated resin. However, currently, the downstream demand for unsaturated resin is mainly for procurement, and the support for unsaturated resin is limited. Currently, unsaturated resin mainly relies on demand for maleic anhydride.

The analyst of Shengyi Society’s maleic anhydride products believes that downstream unsaturated resins maintain a strong demand and provide limited support for the maleic anhydride market; At present, the high level of maleic anhydride is under pressure, and downstream companies are cautious about chasing higher prices. The market is currently paying attention to the resumption of work in maleic anhydride factories, and it is expected that the recent narrow consolidation of the maleic anhydride market will be the main focus.

The domestic acetone market fluctuates within a certain range. According to the analysis system of Business Society, the national acetone market reported a price of 5862.5 yuan/ton since December 17th, and the negotiated price reference in the East China market was 5800 yuan/ton.

Part of the terminal factories have tendered for replenishment, and market negotiations are still acceptable. Traders’ mentality has been boosted, and there is a clear upward trend in pricing sentiment. The offers have been pushed up, but due to the fact that demand is mostly rigid, inventory intentions are not high, and the participation of intermediate traders is limited, the upward space for prices is limited. It is expected that the market will remain at 5800-5900 yuan/ton this week.

The acetone offers in major mainstream markets across the country on December 17th are as follows:

Region/ Quotation/ Daily increase and decrease

East China region/ 5800-5850./ 50

Shandong region/ 5850./ 50

Yanshan region/ 5900./ 0

South China region/ 5900./ 0