1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of dichloroethane in China on March 31st was 2760 yuan/ton, and on March 1st, the average market price of dichloroethane in China was 2720 yuan/ton. The price of dichloroethane increased by 1.47% in March.

2、 Analysis and Review

In March, the market price of dichloroethane experienced a roller coaster rise and fall. At the beginning of the month, the market continued its upward trend in February and reached a peak on March 10th. The average market price of dichloroethane was 2840 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.41% compared to the beginning of the month. The markets in Shandong and Shanghai have rebounded, with companies mainly raising their prices, creating a strong trading atmosphere in the market. In the second half of the month, the price of dichloroethane stopped rising and fell, resulting in a weak trading atmosphere in the market. Since March, the focus of dichloroethane in the Jiangsu region has slightly declined, with poor new orders and main inventory consumption.

In terms of raw materials:

In March, the Asian ethylene market weakened with an average CFR price of $930 per ton in Northeast Asia, a decrease of $20 per ton from the beginning of the month; The average price of CFR in Southeast Asia is $1010 per ton, and the price is stable. The domestic ethylene quotation in East China is 7500 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month.

In terms of demand:

The operation of vinyl chloride factories in the Asian region is normal, and the supply of goods is stable. At the same time, downstream procurement continues the previous stable trend, and the overall supply and demand in the region is balanced. The transaction atmosphere in the vinyl chloride market is still good.

The domestic PVC market lacks domestic demand power. Currently, the quotation for ethylene based PVC in East China is 6150 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, and the market remains in a low and volatile state.

In terms of import and export:

In January, a large amount of dichloroethane was exported, and the market inventory was low. The price of dichloroethane in February was significantly affected by the increase in inventory and raw materials, and the export volume in February decreased significantly. Domestic consumption of inventory led to a decline in dichloroethane prices in March. According to customs data, the export volume of 1,2-dichloroethane (ISO) from China in February 2024 was 35 tons, with an average export price of 3411 yuan/ton. The total export volume of 1,2-dichloroethane (ISO) from China from January to February was 5564.349 tons, a year-on-year increase of 92%.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society believe that the market inventory is high, and raw materials are operating steadily with both external and internal fluctuations. The overall balance between supply and demand on the demand side is expected, and it is expected that the price of dichloroethane will remain stable, moderate, and weak in the near future.

In March, the domestic polycrystalline silicon market performed weakly, with little change in prices from major manufacturers and a loosening in import prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the monthly decline of single crystal dense materials is 3.72%. The main reason is that the supply of silicon materials is abundant, and downstream demand for photovoltaics is lagging behind. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, polycrystalline silicon saw a weekly increase and decrease of 0%. At present, the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a model of first-class solar energy has slipped to 55-6000 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, the operating rate of polycrystalline silicon remained relatively high in March, at around 80% or more. All the equipment in the large factory has started operating, and the supply is showing some pressure. On the one hand, the production of mainstream large factories is stable, and the addition of new production capacity brings incremental growth to the market, resulting in abundant domestic supply performance. However, due to the difficulties in increasing the burden on downstream silicon wafers, the inventory pressure of silicon wafer manufacturers is gradually increasing. In addition, with the slowdown of downstream procurement, the shipment speed of manufacturers has slowed down, leading to silicon material manufacturers starting to accumulate inventory. Although the current prices have reached a low level, manufacturers are gradually showing a willingness to stand up for prices. Most manufacturers have not changed much in factory prices this month, and the main reason for the price decline is the impact of lower import volume. However, the bargaining power of silicon material manufacturers may continue to weaken, and it is not ruled out that there is a possibility of a long-term decline.

From the demand side, the downstream demand for photovoltaics in the market remained relatively rigid in March, while the production of pulling crystals remained at a medium high level. Therefore, the inventory level of silicon wafers has also risen, mainly due to the decrease in downstream battery procurement volume. Battery manufacturers generally maintain low production to cope with the difficulties of sluggish terminal installation procurement, which makes it difficult to digest more silicon wafer inventory and puts greater pressure on silicon wafer factories to ship. Therefore, the price of silicon wafers has dropped significantly this month. Generally exceeding 10%. As of the end of March 29th, the mainstream transaction price of M10 silicon wafers fell by 0.3 yuan this week, to 1.75 yuan per wafer; The mainstream transaction price of G12 has fallen significantly, with a drop of 0.35 yuan to 2.45 yuan per piece.

Market forecast: Polycrystalline silicon analysts from Business Society believe that the upstream supply pressure of the photovoltaic industry chain may gradually become prominent, but the demand for installed capacity is still low. The upstream and downstream of photovoltaics will continue to remain sluggish, and the price of silicon materials is still difficult to improve in the short term.

In March 2024, the domestic liquid ammonia market fluctuated and rose strongly, continuing the upward trend of February at the beginning of the month, briefly declining in mid month, and continuing to rise in the latter half of the month, supported by tight supply. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, liquid ammonia recorded an increase of 11.5% in March.

At the beginning of the month, liquid ammonia continued its upward trend in February. The main reason is the tight supply performance of the main production areas in the north, which is beneficial to support the price increase. The maintenance of equipment in northern regions is relatively concentrated, and some areas are affected by weather, resulting in low inventory of manufacturers due to supply shortages. In addition, downstream procurement has also recovered, and the ammonia market has noticeably rebounded. Manufacturers have raised their prices multiple times, with a cumulative increase of over 300 yuan/ton in the first ten days. The dealer’s offer naturally skyrocketed.

After mid month, the market experienced a brief pullback, with prices falling from 3300 yuan to around 3000 yuan at the beginning of the month. The main reason is that there have been significant changes in the production of urea plants, with more liquid ammonia being transferred in northern regions, especially Shandong and Hebei, resulting in an increase in ammonia volume. In addition, central and eastern China have also successively reduced prices for shipments. The market has shifted from tight supply to short-term surplus. Manufacturers mainly reduce prices, with a reduction range of 300 yuan/ton.

In the latter half of the year, liquid ammonia rebounded again, and the overall operating rate of domestic manufacturers significantly declined, especially with the ammonia release in the main production areas in the north shrinking by more than 5% compared to mid month. The performance of ammonia production in the market is tight, with multiple units undergoing maintenance in Henan, Anhui, and Northeast China. There is a common phenomenon of vehicles queuing up for goods in production enterprises. The ex factory price of liquid ammonia has naturally been repeatedly raised. Shandong manufacturers have generally raised prices 2-3 times within the week, with a cumulative increase of 300-400 yuan/ton. The market performance is in short supply.

Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Business Society, from a supply side perspective, the tight supply in the market has been alleviated with the commencement of some facilities, and prices have slightly stopped rising and fallen at the end of the month. It is expected that the supply will gradually stabilize in the later stage.

From the demand side, the agricultural gap period will continue until early April, and demand will be activated after mid April, which will continue to support the high level range of the ammonia market. Downstream demand needs to be followed up. The main focus of industrial demand is to maintain stable demand, and there is still some support for liquid ammonia in the future. From a cost perspective, especially coal fired ammonia enterprises, they may still be impacted by the weakness of coal, but the reduction of cost pressure will also provide more profit space for enterprises.

Taking all factors into consideration, the price of liquid ammonia will gradually stop rising and stabilize in the near future. In the short term, it is not ruled out that there is room for price decline due to the increase in supply. However, under the expectation of demand growth in mid to late April, the supply-demand game will intensify, and the ammonia market may still have a bright spot.

Price trend

In March, the domestic EVA market remained stable with minor fluctuations, and spot prices fluctuated and consolidated. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 27th, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 11933.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of+0.56% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

The domestic EVA market tends to operate in a stalemate in March, with the supply side’s EVA enterprise load rapidly decreasing from 93% at the beginning of the month to around 78% by mid month. The average operating rate at the end of the month has rebounded to over 92%. However, the inventory pressure of the petrochemical plant is still not high, and there are some production and maintenance plans at the end of the month. At present, suppliers still have a willingness to support the market, and there is still support from EVA suppliers for spot goods in March.

From the demand side perspective, EVA terminal enterprises have generally started production within the month, and their stocking situation tends to lag behind. The logic of purchasing and consumption for just needs remains unchanged. Among them, there are relatively few new orders in traditional downstream areas such as foam shoe materials and cables and wires, and overall, the demand for goods is mainly in demand. Merchants are influenced by the manufacturer’s price hikes and actively raise prices to ship. As the end of the month approaches, some brand names are secretly dropping and selling goods. Overall, the demand side has poor support for EVA.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, EVA prices have remained stable this month. The changes in the market for raw materials ethylene and vinyl acetate are limited, and the support for the EVA market is mediocre. After the industry load fell, it rebounded, and the inventory position of petrochemical plants is still not high. Coupled with expectations of supply tightening in the future, factory prices remain strong in the market. The poor consumption of traditional shoe materials and cables on the demand side has dragged down the overall trading heat. It is expected that in the short term, the spot price of EVA will continue to be dominated by consolidation and operation.

1、 Price trend

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, as of March 26th, the average price of PMMA, a general transparent grade premium product in China, was 16066.67 yuan/ton. PMMA prices mainly increased in March, with an overall increase of 2.12%, around 300 yuan/ton. Currently, the upstream MMA prices are showing a strong trend, and PMMA has some support on the cost side. Downstream demand is still acceptable. Currently, the overall market supply and demand of PMMA is balanced, with manufacturers mainly operating at high prices.

2、 Market analysis

In March, PMMA prices were dominant, with an overall increase of 2.12%, around 300 yuan/ton. Currently, the mainstream market price is around 16000 yuan/ton, and the operating rate of the PMMA market in March was around 64%. The operating rate of the upstream factory MMA was around 48%. The supply of PMMA in March was significantly lower than last month, with a decrease in on-site operating rate and supply side. Recently, it was announced that the MMA and PMMA New Materials Forum will be held in Suzhou from June 6th to 7th, 2024 to discuss the policies and market trends of the MMA and PMMA new materials industry, the latest technology and commercialization progress, the cost and environmental competitiveness of different route technologies, and investment in new projects. MMA integration with upstream and downstream, optical grade PMMA and other key downstream product planning, PMMA downstream application development and recycling, etc.

In terms of cost, MMA prices in March saw a narrow upward trend. Currently, factories have shown signs of pricing, with a focus on maintaining prices. The overall market negotiation is stable, with normal inventory consumption and average downstream procurement enthusiasm. On demand procurement is the main focus. MMA production is expected to be around 102000 tons in March, a decrease of about 2.2% compared to last month, and an increase of about 8.9% compared to the same period last year. Currently, the overall market supply is balanced.

In terms of cost, the acetone market showed a stable and weak trend in March, with prices rebounding and rising in late March. Currently, the mainstream price of acetone in the market is around 7250-7300 yuan/ton, and port inventories decreased at the beginning of the week. Traders have a strong mentality of supporting prices, and the focus of market negotiations is currently high. The transaction atmosphere is good. In April, several phenolic ketone companies reported maintenance news, with maintenance time from the end of March to the end of April, which is about one month. During the maintenance period, the market supply will be reduced, and downstream PMMA will have some positive support on the cost side.

In terms of demand: Currently, the downstream demand for PMMA is still acceptable, and the procurement atmosphere is positive. With the popularity of power vehicles, PMMA, as one of the raw materials for producing automotive parts, is widely used in projects such as car lights, windshields, and windows. Due to its high strength, toughness, and wear resistance, it can effectively improve the safety and comfort of cars. Since March, the demand for power vehicles has increased, and there has been a shortage of supply, leading to a surge in the price of PMMA.

3、 Future Market Forecast

PMMA analysts from Business Society believe that the current operating rate of the PMMA market is relatively stable, and the overall market supply and demand are balanced. Many manufacturers are mainly inclined to raise prices, and downstream demand is constantly increasing. There is a slight shortage of upstream supply. Although some companies have started to expand production, it will take some time to officially release production capacity, and the cost side has a certain supporting effect. Therefore, it is expected that PMMA prices will maintain a narrow and strong trend in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of March 22, the average price of alumina in the market was 3473 yuan/ton, and on March 18, the average price of alumina in the market was 3473 yuan/ton, which remained stable compared to last week.

In terms of cost

At present, mining enterprises in Shanxi, Henan and other regions are actively promoting the resumption of mine production with the cooperation of the government. It is expected that mining production in the Shanxi region will gradually resume by the end of this month. If the domestic ore supply in Shanxi region improves, it will further promote the resumption of production of alumina enterprises in Shanxi and Henan.

In terms of supply and demand

The news of Yunnan aluminum enterprises resuming production has been announced, and the annual consumption increment of alumina driven by this resumption of production is about 1 million tons. Recently, mining production in Guizhou and Guangxi has gradually resumed, with over 1 million tons of alumina production capacity resuming in the region. The supply gap of alumina in the southwest region has not yet expanded, and spot prices are maintaining a tight balance. There are expectations for the release of production capacity on the demand side. On March 17th, relevant departments in Yunnan Province decided to release 800000 kilowatts of electricity load for the resumption of production of electrolytic aluminum enterprises. It is expected that the actual production capacity for this round of resumption will be around 400000 tons per year, and it is expected to be completed in mid April.

Post trend prediction

In recent times, the production capacity of alumina has been concentrated and released. Although downstream demand has been released ahead of schedule, the supply and demand have shown a surplus pattern, and the spot price of alumina continues to decline, seeking a bottom range. However, there is support on the cost side and limited downward space.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate market was 850 yuan/ton on March 15th, and 816 yuan/ton on March 21st. This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market price fell by 3.92%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic ammonium sulfate market price has fallen this week. At present, the trading volume in the ammonium sulfate market is sluggish, and downstream purchases are in high demand. There is a resistance to high prices and many transactions are made at low prices. Recently, the price of urea has weakened, coupled with the fact that the export market has not improved, which is bearish for the domestic ammonium sulfate market. As of March 21st, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Hebei region is around 750-805 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation for ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 830-850 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Business Society, the price trend of ammonium sulfate has recently declined. The demand side continues to be sluggish, with poor domestic and international market conditions. At present, it is difficult to find favorable market conditions, and it is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate price will continue to decline weakly in the short term.

This week (3.13-3.20), the market trend of calcium formate fluctuated and declined. As of March 20th, the benchmark price of calcium formate at Shengyishe was 3732.50 yuan/ton. Compared with last week (3782.50 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.32%. The reference price for the North China market is 3600 yuan/ton, while the reference price for the East China market is 3750 yuan/ton;

Cost side:

The market price of raw material formic acid is stable, with a benchmark price of 3300.00 yuan/ton for Shengyishe formic acid, which is unchanged from last week. Cost support is still acceptable.

Overall

The main reason for the slight decrease in the market price of calcium formate is that there is sufficient on-site spot supply, and the overall purchasing enthusiasm is weak due to the influence of terminal real estate. However, in the future, analysts from Business Society predict that as the price of calcium formate decreases, terminal market demand may recover, which will alleviate market supply and demand. In the short term, the price of calcium formate will remain stable.

Recently, the market price of acetonitrile has shown a significant downward trend. As of March 19th, the benchmark price of acetonitrile for Shengyishe was 9800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.81 yuan/ton compared to last week (9880 yuan/ton). The fluctuation of market prices is mainly influenced by both supply and demand, showing a certain degree of instability.

In terms of demand:

The overall sentiment in the acetonitrile market has weakened this week, with the most important being that demand has not followed up as expected, and overall supplier shipments are still slow. In response to market changes, suppliers have lowered their prices. Although downstream demand has not improved significantly during this period, the main reason is that downstream pesticide production has not increased significantly, and some factories are still digesting early inventory.

In terms of supply:

Due to overcapacity in the early stage, which is also a major factor in suppressing market price increases, the inventory of enterprises remains sufficient in the short term; In addition, after the increase in production of synthetic method enterprises, the prices of raw materials such as acetic acid and synthetic ammonia have remained low and fluctuated, and the short-term increase in external sales is also limited.

Overall

In the early stage, the market mainly relied on supply reduction to drive price increases, but currently, the favorable factors in the market are not favorable. Especially the slow growth of downstream demand will put pressure on the price of acetonitrile. Another reason is that after a significant increase in prices in the early stages, intermediaries have a low enthusiasm for replenishing acetonitrile, mainly relying on wait-and-see. This move is affecting the overall trend of the market.

In summary, analysts from Business Society predict that the market price of acetonitrile may continue to decline this week due to multiple factors.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, from March 8th to 15th, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market dropped from 781 yuan/ton to 9731 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.51% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 0.57%, and a year-on-year increase of 2.25%. The domestic price of cyclohexanone is on a wait-and-see basis, and the recent consolidation of raw material pure benzene has strengthened the cost support. The spot supply of cyclohexanone is stable, and downstream demand is mostly followed up. Due to a slight rebound in the pure benzene market, the cyclohexanone industry has stopped falling and stabilized.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: domestic pure benzene prices are relatively high. The domestic production of pure benzene has limited changes, and the downstream demand for pick-up is stable. However, the number of imported goods on board has increased, and port inventories have slightly accumulated. As of March 15th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 8508.83 yuan/ton. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price trend of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 7.14 million tons, and the current operating load is about 60%, which is at a relatively low level. The average weekly operating load of cyclohexanone is 68.67%, and the weekly production is 104100 tons, which has decreased compared to the previous cycle. The supply of cyclohexanone is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream production of caprolactam, which is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. The sales of caprolactam and downstream PA6 chips have improved, and the market has stabilized. However, there are still concerns about the supply of caprolactam in the later stage of the market, and the polymerization factory mainly purchases raw materials on demand. The demand side for cyclohexanone is temporarily bearish.

In the future market forecast, pure benzene will operate in a volatile manner, with relatively stable cost support. There is not much spot supply of cyclohexanone, and downstream demand is uncertain. Business Society cyclohexanone analysts predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly consolidate in the short term.