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The bullish trend is still present, and it is expected that the adipic acid market will rise in April

lubon — Fri, 03 Apr 2026 01:48:12 +0000

According to monitoring data from Business Society, since March, the adipic acid market has experienced a surge, a pullback, and a stable trend due to geopolitical conflicts and cost support, with an overall increase of over 30%. In early April, the rise of adipic acid continued. On March 1st, the average market price of adipic acid was 8300 yuan/ton, and on April 2nd, the average market price of adipic acid was 10833 yuan/ton, an increase of 30.52%.
How will the adipic acid market perform in April?
Supply and demand forecast
Cost side: The impact of geopolitical conflicts is still present, and the price of pure phenylcyclohexanone, an upstream raw material, still has upward momentum, which is a strong support for the rise of the adipic acid market. On April 1st, industry leader Hualu Hengsheng raised its adipic acid ex factory price by 400 yuan/ton to 11100 yuan/ton. Cost pressure is gradually spreading downstream.
Supply side: In April, there was no new production capacity in the market, and many leading domestic adipic acid enterprises were still in a shutdown state, with a market operating rate of about 60-70%. Manufacturers have no pressure to ship due to a decrease in supply, leading to an increase in reluctance to sell.
Demand side: Traditional downstream production rates such as terminal slurry, sole stock solution, PA66, TPU, etc. are low (less than 50%), making cost transmission difficult and low acceptance of high prices. Terminal demand is difficult to experience explosive growth and relatively stable.
Technical level prediction
According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price trend chart of adipic acid shows that the key indicator: after the March 10 moving average crossed the 20 day moving average, it had already shown a downward trend at the end of March and will continue to see an upward trend in early April. The probability of adipic acid price increase is still high. The adipic acid market will continue to oscillate at a high level throughout April, with a trend of strengthening oscillation.
Auxiliary indicators: In early April, the price of adipic acid was at a 10 day high, a 20 day low, a 10 day super rise, and a 1-year super rise. This also to some extent confirms the high volatility and upward trend of the adipic acid market in April.
In summary, the predicted supply and demand results indicate high costs, tight supply, stable demand, and a strong upward trend for adipic acid in April. From a technical perspective, it can be seen that the adipic acid market rose at a high level in April, with limited gains. Therefore, the overall fluctuation of adipic acid market in April is mainly upward, and the expected price is between 10700-11500.

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Recently, the acetic acid market has seen a wide rise in prices

lubon — Thu, 02 Apr 2026 01:52:52 +0000

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 31, the average market price of acetic acid was 4140 yuan/ton, an increase of 663.33 yuan/ton or 19.08% compared to the price of 3476.67 yuan/ton on March 25.
Recently (3.25-3.31), domestic acetic acid prices have risen sharply. Raw material methanol maintains a high level of operation, and cost benefits still exist to support it; The operating rate of acetic acid on the supply side has decreased narrowly, and enterprise inventory is relatively low, while market prices continue to rise; At the same time, downstream product prices in the industrial chain have shown a sustained and wide upward trend, providing strong support for acetic acid. The combination of favorable factors in the market has driven the continuous rise of the acetic acid market.
Recently, the raw material methanol market has been consolidating at a high level. As of March 31st, the average price in the domestic market was 3356.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.24% compared to the price of 3130 yuan/ton on March 25th. Affected by geopolitical conflicts, methanol imports have been reduced, futures market prices have risen, and the spot market is supported by port inventory depletion and domestic olefin enterprise procurement. Industry players have a bullish mentality, and the focus of spot prices has shifted upward. The methanol market maintains a high and volatile operation, and the increase in cost side prices has increased the pressure on vinegar.
The downstream acetic anhydride market has shown a strong upward trend, with the average ex factory price of acetic anhydride rising from 5605.00 yuan/ton to 6162.50 yuan/ton from March 25th to 31st, an increase of 9.95%. The production of acetic anhydride on the supply side is stable, and downstream entry into the market is mainly based on demand. The market trading atmosphere is still good, and the price trend of acetic anhydride on the raw material side is strong, with obvious cost support, driving the optimistic upward trend of acetic anhydride prices.
Market forecast: According to the acetic acid analyst from Shengyi Society, domestic acetic acid companies have low inventory levels, and manufacturers have a strong intention to raise prices. The strong upward trend of upstream and downstream products supports acetic acid, and the market fundamentals are relatively strong. It is expected that the acetic acid market will continue to operate at a high level in the short term, and attention will be paid to the market supply situation in the future.

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The aniline market saw a wide rise in March

lubon — Wed, 01 Apr 2026 01:34:18 +0000

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the aniline market saw a broad rise in March. On March 1st, the market price of aniline was 9145 yuan/ton, and on March 31st, the price was 11362 yuan/ton, an increase of 24.25% during the period, and an increase of 41.59% compared to the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and Review
At the beginning of the month, the situation in the Middle East remained tense, with international crude oil prices running at high levels, driving up the prices of upstream raw materials such as pure benzene. Pure benzene is the main raw material for aniline, and recently, the price of pure benzene has risen sharply, causing the price of aniline to skyrocket. Coupled with recent maintenance plans from major factories and low inventory levels, the price of aniline has exceeded 10000 yuan. Subsequently, the situation in the Middle East changed rapidly, with crude oil breaking through $100 and quickly rebounding, and the price of raw material pure benzene falling rapidly. Under the influence of cost, the price of aniline has been lowered. Starting from mid March, prices have steadily increased due to the impact of cost and supply and demand, reaching a high level. Downstream demand driven entry into the market, gradually accepting high-end raw materials, and the market transaction situation is still acceptable.
Pure benzene: The pure benzene market experienced a sharp rise and fall in March, influenced by the geopolitical situation, with prices deviating from fundamentals and a significant impact on market sentiment. In the future, refineries are concerned about the stability of raw material supply and have entered defensive production cuts. They are closely monitoring the situation of their peers in the Strait of Hormuz, and the short-term pure benzene market is prone to rise but difficult to fall.
3、 Future expectations
The current aniline market continues to strengthen due to cost support, coupled with major factory maintenance and supply side tightening. It is expected that the aniline market will continue to rise at a high level in the short term.

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Cost driven, polyester bottle flakes experience roller coaster market in March

lubon — Tue, 31 Mar 2026 01:58:31 +0000

1、 Price trend this month
Polyester bottle flakes surged in the first half of March, peaked and fell back in the middle, and fluctuated at a high level in the second half, driven by cost and experiencing a roller coaster market. According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, as of March 30th, the mainstream average spot price of polyester bottle chips in East China is 8800 yuan/ton.
Early October (1-15): Violent increase in the ex factory price of East China water bottle tablets: 6200 → 7800 yuan/ton, with a maximum increase of about 26%. Futures main chain: 6200 → 9068 yuan/ton (high point on March 16). Drivers: skyrocketing crude oil prices, rising PX/PTA costs, overseas shortages, and domestic factory closures and reluctance to sell.
Mid month (16-20): Futures fell from 9068 yuan/ton to 8262 yuan/ton at the peak, and spot prices fell 806 yuan/ton in 5 days, leading to a simultaneous correction in the market from grabbing goods to observing.
Late period (21-30): The volatility repair futures fluctuated in the range of 8000-8700 yuan/ton. Spot: East China 8300 → 8800 yuan/ton (30). Closing on the 30th: Futures 8326 yuan/ton, spot 8800 yuan/ton.
2、 Driven by core market trends
Cost end
The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has led to a surge in crude oil prices, causing PX, PTA, and MEG to rise across the board, resulting in a rigid increase in bottle costs and violent price increases in the first half of the year.
In the middle of the month, geopolitical sentiment eased, oil prices fell, raw material prices weakened synchronously, cost support weakened, and bottle chip prices peaked and fell.
In the latter half of the year, oil prices fluctuated repeatedly, raw materials fluctuated widely, and bottle prices fluctuated with high costs.
supply side
The domestic operating rate is only about 71.5%, and large factories are closing down and reluctant to sell, with tight spot circulation, coupled with low inventory levels, exacerbating supply shortages.
Structural shortages in North America and the European Union overseas, with global production capacity concentrated in China and exports diverted from domestic sources, further driving up domestic prices.
The equipment will gradually restart in the latter half of the year, and the supply shortage will slightly ease, but it is still in a tight balance state.
Demand side
The domestic beverage peak season stocking has started, with immediate demand supporting prices, but high prices suppressing procurement. Downstream purchases are mainly based on demand and inventory digestion.
The concentrated outbreak of overseas replenishment demand has led to an improvement in export orders, diverting domestic sources of goods and widening the supply-demand gap.
market sentiment
In the first half of the year, panic buying and reluctance to sell led to a strengthening of the basis, driving prices to quickly rise.
In the second half of the year, profit taking and wait-and-see intensified, trading volume was light, and prices fell from high levels and fluctuated.
3、 Short term outlook (early April)
In April, polyester bottle flakes will mainly fluctuate at a high level, with a range of 8200-8800 yuan/ton, focusing on core variables such as crude oil trends, the situation in the Middle East, factory operations, and downstream procurement rhythm.

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The BDO market continues to fluctuate and rise

lubon — Mon, 30 Mar 2026 01:46:17 +0000

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 20th to 27th, the domestic BDO price rose from 7900 yuan/ton to 8157 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.25% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 10.66%, and a year-on-year increase of 3.25%. At present, the supply of BDO is relatively average, and the cost pressure is increasing, resulting in continuously rising auction prices. At the same time, downstream demand is increasing, multiple favorable factors are overlapping, and the supply side’s new moon policy is shrinking to support the market. Following up on downstream contract orders, the domestic BDO market continues to fluctuate and rise.
In terms of supply and equipment, there are many fluctuations, and the holding manufacturers are reluctant to sell at low prices, which has led to a continuous increase in online auction prices. The market supply of goods is still relatively low, and there is still good support from the supply side. The supply side of BDO is affected by favorable factors.
On the cost side, the calcium carbide market continues to rise, and production companies are shipping smoothly. With the increase in calcium carbide prices, companies have achieved significant improvements in profitability. The methanol market continues to show an upward trend, supported by factors such as downstream olefin plant demand inquiry and procurement, and positive expectations for the restart of MTO plants in East China. The overall market sentiment is optimistic about the strong operation of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol. The cost of BDO industry is still under pressure, and the cost of BDO is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side and downstream side, many industries have followed the trend of the raw material side to rise, but the increase is smaller than that of the raw material side, resulting in increased cost pressure. Under the impact of poor cost transmission, downstream industry contract orders are being followed up, and the implementation of spot orders is limited. A small number of essential small orders are being negotiated at high levels, driving the market focus to shift upward. The demand for BDO is influenced by favorable factors.
The future forecast shows that as the supply of goods increases, the support on the supply side will slightly weaken. Downstream demand is also expected to decrease, and the gap between supply and demand is widening. At the same time, the transmission of industrial chain costs is not smooth, which suppresses the enthusiasm of downstream end-users to start production, thereby leading to bargaining emotions for raw material inventory. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market will mainly consolidate after rising.

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The dual benefits of cost and supply are good, and the price of diethylene glycol is on the rise

lubon — Wed, 25 Mar 2026 01:41:28 +0000

On March 24th, the domestic ethylene glycol market was operating relatively strongly, with the mainstream spot market in East China closing at 5900 yuan/ton,+160 yuan/ton; The South China market followed the mainstream market and performed strongly, with tight resource supply in the region, closing at 6150 yuan/ton,+250 yuan/ton.
Fundamental analysis:
Supply: As of March 23, the inventory of diethylene glycol at ports in East China was 44100 tons, a decrease of 7900 tons compared to the previous statistical period. This week (March 24-30), Zhangjiagang Diethylene Glycol is expected to arrive at a ship of 5000 tons, with a decrease in expected port arrivals and slow downstream recovery. Port shipments remain stable, and inventory at the main ports in East China continues to decline this week.
Demand: Downstream performance falls short of expectations and lacks momentum to chase after price increases. According to statistics, the average operating rate of unsaturated resin factories in China this week was 37%, a decrease of 1.0% from the previous period. On March 23, the total amount of shipments from the two storage areas in Zhangjiagang was 1314 tons, an increase of 191 tons from the previous day.
Cost: The situation in the Middle East has led to significant production cuts in multiple oil producing countries, and there are reports that the United States may deploy additional ground forces, increasing supply risks. The US side claims to have made positive progress in negotiations with Iran, easing market concerns and causing international oil prices to fall. However, Iran later denied this, leading to an increase in international oil prices.
Market expectation: There will be a slight decrease in supply this week due to the tense situation in the Middle East and the continuation of supply disruptions. Main port inventories are expected to continue to deplete. However, the demand side is resistant to high prices, and the market lacks sustained driving force. On Tuesday of this week, the ethylene glycol market maintained a strong and volatile pattern, and downstream purchasing sentiment was cautious.

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Emotional cooling, lithium carbonate prices under pressure, downward trend

lubon — Tue, 24 Mar 2026 02:24:36 +0000

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate has been on a downward trend recently. As of March 23, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s battery grade lithium carbonate was 142000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.4% compared to the same period last week (March 16), a decrease of 2% month on month, and an increase of 86% year-on-year.
Multiple pressure resonance downward
The supply side has a significant increase in volume, and the sufficient supply of goods has dragged down the price upward
The core reason for the current decline in lithium carbonate prices is that supply growth far exceeds the speed of demand digestion, and the supply-demand pattern is clearly loose. Recently, overseas lithium salts have been concentrated in Hong Kong, and domestic smelting enterprises have gradually resumed production. Early maintenance equipment has been restarted one after another, and the market’s available supply of goods continues to increase, resulting in continuous pressure on the supply side.
Downstream demand recovery is weak, and essential demand is difficult to support high levels
The weak demand side is an important reason for the pressure on lithium carbonate. The growth rate of new energy vehicle sales has slowed down, and power battery companies are cautious in their production plans. Positive electrode material companies mainly rely on on-demand procurement and low-level replenishment, lacking the willingness to concentrate on stocking.
The energy storage sector has not yet formed a significant driving force for lithium battery demand, and downstream markets have a strong wait-and-see attitude, with a prominent mentality of “buying up instead of buying down”, resulting in overall light trading volume. Insufficient support from the demand side makes it difficult for lithium carbonate prices to maintain high levels and continue to adjust downwards.
Macro sentiment and capital game exacerbate short-term decline
At the macro level, the strengthening of the US dollar index has suppressed the overall valuation of commodities, and there has been a significant diversion of funds from the new energy sector. Part of the funds profited and left, while the bearish power increased, which significantly suppressed lithium carbonate futures.
The profit taking gains accumulated from the previous slight rebound were concentrated and cashed out after the sentiment weakened, resulting in a simultaneous weakening of futures and spot prices, further amplifying the decline in this round.
The data analyst of Business Society’s lithium carbonate believes that the current situation of loose supply of lithium carbonate is difficult to change in the short term, and the progress of destocking is still the key factor leading the price trend. If the demand for downstream power batteries and new energy vehicles continues to be weak, lithium prices may further explore support, and specific changes in market supply and demand still need to be monitored.

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This week, the price of caustic soda remained firm (3.16-3.20)

lubon — Mon, 23 Mar 2026 01:51:55 +0000

1、 Price trend
According to the commodity analysis system, the price of caustic soda remained strong this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 688 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 700 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.74% and a year-on-year decrease of 28.5%. On March 19th, the Business Society Chlor Alkali Index was 765 points, up 4 points from yesterday, down 64.05% from the highest point of 2128 points during the cycle (2021-10-24), and up 8.20% from the lowest point of 707 points on February 27th, 2026. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
The commodity analysis system shows that the price of caustic soda has been running steadily this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 650-720 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Zhejiang region is stable, with a mainstream market price of 930-960 yuan/ton in 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is stable, with a mainstream market price of 2250-2350 yuan/ton (converted to 100%) in 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. This week, the inventory of caustic soda enterprises has decreased, and external orders have continued, resulting in an increase in caustic soda prices. The periodic supply imbalance of downstream alumina has led to price increases, and the overall enterprise has a reluctance to sell. It is expected that the alumina market will fluctuate in the later stage.
Analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has remained strong this week, and the recent rise in downstream alumina prices in China is favorable for caustic soda. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda may continue to maintain a strong operating market in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

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Cost driven strong rise: Since March, the price of trichloromethane has increased by 50.88%

lubon — Wed, 18 Mar 2026 02:30:50 +0000

Recently (3.1-3.17), the trichloromethane market in Shandong has seen a significant increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 17th, the price of trichloromethane water in Shandong Province was 2866 yuan/ton, an increase of 50.88% from 1900 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has disrupted the petrochemical industry chain, causing a significant increase in the price of trichloromethane raw material methanol and a roller coaster like market trend of liquid chlorine rising first and then falling.
Recently (3.1-3.17), the methane chloride unit in Jinling has slightly decreased to around 8.30%.
Since March, methanol prices have risen significantly, while liquid chlorine prices have risen first and then fallen, providing support for the cost of trichloromethane. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 17th, the spot price of methanol was 2870 yuan/ton, an increase of 30.45% from 2200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The highest acceptance price for liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region during the cycle is around 350 yuan/ton.
The downstream refrigerant R22 supply is subject to quota control, and the large-scale transactions in the south have eased inventory pressure, ensuring stable operation. Polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) showed a steady upward trend in March, with urgent demand for replenishment in fields such as electronics, sealing, and new energy. High end products, such as meltable PTFE, have relatively good demand.
The methane chloride data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current supply of chloroform is loose, and cost support is the main price driver. In the future, attention still needs to be paid to the development of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. If geopolitical conflicts ease, raw material prices will fall from high levels, and chloroform cost support will decrease, leading to a high decline in prices.

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The cost has dropped sharply, and the price of aniline has fallen from a high level

lubon — Mon, 16 Mar 2026 02:36:48 +0000

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of aniline has fluctuated and fallen this week. On March 9th, the market price of aniline was 11462 yuan/ton, and on March 6th, it was 10262 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.17% during the cycle and an increase of 17.12% compared to the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and Review
The situation in the Middle East was volatile during the week, with crude oil rapidly recovering after breaking through $100, and the price of raw material pure benzene rapidly falling. Under the influence of cost, the price of aniline has been lowered. The current price of aniline is still at a high level, and downstream demand is entering the market, resulting in a weakened purchasing atmosphere and a stronger wait-and-see atmosphere.
On the cost side: There were signs of easing in the geopolitical conflict this week, coupled with the news of the G7 emergency meeting discussing the joint release of strategic oil reserves, market sentiment quickly cooled down. On March 10th, international crude oil prices sharply fell, cost support weakened, and pure benzene prices fell. Price fluctuates widely, downstream passively observes, and demand is average.
3、 Future expectations
At present, the macro level is still unclear, and as a result, the price of raw material pure benzene follows the changes in crude oil. It is expected that the price of aniline will remain high in the short term, and we will closely monitor the changes in raw material and market supply and demand in the future.

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